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Senate Democrats Stake 2024 Hopes on Two Red States

“Democrats’ hopes of clinging to the Senate next fall now rest almost entirely on their party’s most endangered species: red-state incumbents seeking reelection,” Politico reports.“After Joe Manchin’s retirement announcement, the party is down to just two of them on the ballot next y ....

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The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee has decreased sharply. This trend helps explain why we currently rate Democratic-held West Virginia as Leans Republican and started off Montana and Ohio as Toss-ups.
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