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Synopsis The early trends show the decline won’t be at a national level but could be at a regional level, and the surge is likely to shift to other regions,” a senior government official told ET. The estimates are based on the daily number of positives reported and various national as well as international studies such as the ones by IIT-Kanpur and Hyderabad. Getty Images As per a model developed by IIT Kanpur & Hyderabad, made public in April, active cases in the country could peak between 3800,000 and 4800,000 around May 14-18 with daily new infections hitting a high of 440,000 from May 4-8. ....