The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis – Sabato's Crystal Ball centerforpolitics.org - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from centerforpolitics.org Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election? – Sabato's Crystal Ball centerforpolitics.org - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from centerforpolitics.org Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Are Latinos Really Abandoning Dems? Poll Analysis Gives New Insight Sebastian Hughes on March 24, 2022 Analysis from election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal
Democratic share of the Latino vote has been highly variable from election to election.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida. However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that this growing voting bloc is not necessarily trending one way or the other. Presidential incumbency appears to have a stronger influence on Latino voters than on other demographic groups.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE Based on presidential voting patterns, a much larger proportion of U.S. House districts strongly favor one party and a much smaller proportion are closely divided than 50 years ago. However, gerrymandering is not the major reason for this trend. Partisan polarization has increased dramatically in U.S. states and counties, whose boundaries have not changed. Moreover, despite the growing partisan divide evident in presidential voting, the competitiveness of House elections has changed very little over the past 5 decades because the personal advantage of incumbency has declined sharply during this period.