LESSWRONG
106
Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.
Or: Why AI Takeover Might Happen Before GDP Accelerates, and Other Thoughts On What Matters for Timelines and Takeoff Speeds
[Epistemic status: Strong opinion, lightly held]
I think world GDP (and economic growth more generally) is overrated as a metric for AI timelines and takeoff speeds.
Here are some uses of GDP that I disagree with, or at least think should be accompanied by cautionary notes:
Timelines:
Ajeya Cotra thinks of transformative AI as “software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it).” I don’t mean to single her out in particular; this seems like the standard definition now. And I think it s much better than one prominent alternative, which is to date your AI timelines to the first time world GDP (GWP) doubles in a year!