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Today's Fed meeting announcement is the last one until September 20. Mortgage rates, of course, are prone to moving around even without the Fed’s direction. Meanwhile, the second quarter earnings from lenders are of great interest to warehouse banks and investors (including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae). Those counterparties are contractually limited as to what they can do with companies that are not making money and have seen their net worth erode over the months and quarters. There is continued talk of over-capacity as companies eye the end of summer, continued high rates, existing borrowers with low rates, and limited houses for sale. (Anyone displaced can post their resume for free here where, for $75, employers can view them for several months.) There is no disagreement about it being a difficult environment for most lenders, unlike there being disagreement over housing prices. Who you gonna believe? The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.7 percent MoM: U.S. house prices r ....
Some things are fortuitous. For example, if Sting hadn’t been in Montserrat windsurfing when Dire Straits was recording “Money for Nothing,” would we have ever heard the iconic “I want my MTV” 38 years ago? Some things don’t go so smoothly, like insurance in places like California and Florida. Farmers Insurance is the latest home insurer to pull out of Florida’s market, labeling the move as a business decision that was “necessary to effectively manage risk exposure,” per the company’s statement provided to Fortune. Shortly after, AAA announced it’d reduce its presence in Florida. And some things are neither fortuitous nor bad, but just are. Occasionally I am asked about branch models, especially as companies, realizing that summer is passing with no huge uptick in sales and no great reduction in interest rates, are once again examining overhead and what kind of branch makes the most sense. I turned to STRATMOR ....
This Commentary has made a name for itself in covering breaking, shocking news that other, lesser outlets are too timid to even mention. “One day I hope to be wealthy enough not to do a double take every time I see abandoned furniture on the side of the road.” “Wealth” is an interesting concept, and while lenders carefully watch their locks, funding volumes, and margins, and what they’re worth (STRATMOR’s current blog is titled, “Doing Business with the Agencies: The Golden Ticket?”), individuals are doing the same thing. Loan officers from coast to coast tell me the same thing: With inflation continuing to outpace consumers' wage increases, their levels of debt are rising. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total U.S. household debt (mortgages, credit cards, car loans, and student debt) rose to $17.05T, with balances standing $2.9T higher than at the end of 2019 (before the pandemic recession). Fortunately ....
I head to Connecticut early today for the CMBA conference, but on another personal note, congratulations to Robbie Chrisman, host of the daily mortgage podcast based on this Commentary, who recently rode his single-speed bicycle from Manhattan, across the Appalachians, to Chicago, working when not pedaling. (In terms of physical prowess, I feel fortunate not cramping up putting my socks on in the morning.) The weather seems to have improved in most places, the Northeast included, and we’re approaching travel season. Here’s an interesting list of tourist scams to avoid during all seasons. (I’ve never had a baby thrown my way.) Perhaps the improving weather influenced homebuilder sentiment, as have falling lumber prices: sentiment has improved in May according to the NAHB off the lows of 2022. People need a place to live, but perhaps not one to work. “The ‘return to the office’ won’t save the office: More people are going to offices more o ....