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front. well, good evening, everyone, i m erin burnett. out front tonight from cnn s election center. an episode of survivor how republican presidential candidate, rick santorum described the iowa caucuses. here is the thing about iowa, no offense, iowa, you are really important. you are also small. only 2 million registered voters. 640,000 republicans. if the 2008 caucuses were an in caution of what is a head for tomorrow, only about 100 tough those republicans will actually go out on a cold january night to cast their votes. and those who do, only a 50% success rate when it actually comes to picking the eventual nominee. so what s all the hype about iowa? the bottom line is it has a huge influence in who stays and doesn t stay in the presidential race. maybe small, but it packs one big punch. listen to candidates today. they know what is really at stake tomorrow. we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country. we re looking for a commander-in-ch ....
Walls. two walls. you will see amazing things they can do tomorrow night. show you this, iowa s poll, example of what we have seen. this just shows the point of how volatile and how important iowa is. this is among republican, likely voters in iowa. from june through now. you can see mitt romney was number one back in june. as we progress a little bit further. you see michele bachmann number one in july with 32%. rating right there. romney number one. in october. but then youee the rise of herman cain up to 34%. highest to that point. mitt romney. once again. but really hovering right in that mid 20s which is where he has been effectively stuck all the way along. herman cain, again in november. then when you see herman cain get out of the race on the accusations of sexual harassment, you have newt gingrich. that was a real surge up to 33%. ron paul then, 28%. as the leader. and then, mitt romney, once again. but still in the mid 20s. at 25. and you see mitt romney there. had this gone ....
There are going to be surprises. rick perry trying to put forred a are forward a ground game. newt gingrich saying i m a victim of negative attacks. here is the key if you trying to see if you stay in at the end of the race. if you are appealing to conservative voters, coming in at the bottom of the race in iowa, you have a big problem. what made you make your decision? an adviser to rudy giuliani. he did make his big bet in florida. when he lost he got out right after. how do you make the decision, if you are not a winner when do you get out? figure out which state is the best fit for you. florida tend to be the tiebreaker. in the case of florida, the florida strategy. when florida didn t work out. when he came in third in florida he knew the game was up. he pulled out the next day and endorsed john mccain. if you are a social conservative candidate, running on the conservative populist train, and rick perry, michele bachmann, at ....
Tore up who doubled from 11% of likely voters wednesday to 22% on friday. which is pretty stunning. as you can see, all those different leaders, since this began. so a few votes can make a huge difference. that s why iowa is so important. because a few votes can make the difference between a win and loss and between who eventually becomes the nominee for the gop. that s where john avalon comes in. you looked at this back in 2008. the margin of victory between a winner and runner-up. not very big. not big at all. the difference between mike huckabee who won the 2008 caucuses and mitt romney who outpent him, invested so heavily. 10,000 votes. stunning. stunning. the difference between the number three person, fred thompson, and ron paul who came in fifth, less than 400 votes. you are talking about very narrow margins. this is a high intensity, low turnout election. it s not even prrepresentative the state of iowa. ....