this is based on the forward looking indicators of the business cycle. that s all we do is watch those indicators, monitor them. there s an overwhelming message when we look at those indicators that is consistent only with the new recession starting here. when you think back to 2008, while we made that call, then it was prior to the lehman crisis economists were looking backwards at gdp. once we saw the lehman crisis everybody was on board with the fact there was a recession. before that there was a question. correct. when you see gdp positive or jobs numbers positive, you say there isn t a recession and you get pushback. time will tell. harvard professor, chief economist for international monetary fund. you ve been on the show before. your point of disagreement, you say a lot of people feel the recession never ended. now, we are four years away from the official start of this recession. it started in december of 2007. we re certainly three years into the worst of it. w