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Wrote a newsletter today about speaker mccarthy and i want to make the point that what really matters is transferring the gavel. the shift of power in the house from pelosi to mccarthy will be decisive and people need to understand that. and she has governed with a four-vote margin and passed trillions of dollars in spending and radical bills. so i think people overestimate the impact, if kevin ends up, as i think he will, at 226 or 228. remember, we were at 230 but it was such a shock to have the republicans take over in 1994. bill clinton was the opposite of joe biden. if you go back and listen to clinton s press conference the next day he said we re going to have to change and work with the republicans. nothing biden said yesterday indicates he wants to work with the republicans. he threatens to veto everything. he says he is not going to change any policies. well, i think republicans have to really look at why we didn t ....
226 to 236, based on a final generic ballot. it s a democratic concern. but at the other senate races that you re watching? look, it s coming down to four seats. it s coming down to four seats. democrats need to win three of these four races, right. we re talking arizona, we re talking pennsylvania, georgia, nevada. right, now they are head and threw those four seats, with raphael warnock and georgia being that 50th seat. of course, if it gets to 50% plus one, in order to avoid a runoff, who knows. it could be that we are determining senate control in a runoff in georgia in december. that s possible. but the other thing i will note is that these races are all within the margin of error. so it s plausible that we might not even need that georgia runoff. republicans could gain control the united states senate before the december runoff. or the democrats win nevada, maybe they already get the majority themselves. so, things are just really tight in the senate. unlike the house, where ....
Representatives what we re generally looking for is republicans to get anywhere between 226 or 227 seats and somewhere up to 235. i lost you lost me on your actual graphic but i hear what you re saying. i so tried to make that it s very complicated. put it back on that screen. what is that. estimated gop seats won, 226 to 236 based on a final george anthonier in generic ballot. it s coming down to four seats. it s coming down to four seats. democrats need to win three of these four races. we re talking about arizona, pennsylvania, georgia, nevada. right now they re ahead in three of those four seats with georgia being the 50th seat. of course if he gets to 50% plus one in order to avoid a runoff, who knows, it could be that we re determining senate control and a run off in georgia in december. that s possible but another thing is these are all within the margin of error so it s plausible that we might not even need that runoff in georgia. ....
Congressional ballot. of course, we will always show you that congressional ballot, you obviously what the heck does that mean? what is the congressional ballot, the generic congressional ballot mean? what i ve done for you anderson, the audience, to make it clear, because i like making things clear, i ve converted that into how many seats the republican party will win. and generally speaking, in the range of sort of the results that we ve been seeing on the generic congressional ballot, we re looking for republicans to get a majority somewhere in the 230 feet range. it might be a little bit above that if that generic ballot final lead is really strong, it might be a little below that it s a little weaker. but generally speaking, for the house of representatives, what we are looking for is for republicans to have basically anywhere between say 226, 227 seats, and somewhere up to perhaps 235, more less. you lost me on your actual graphic. but i hear what you re saying. i so try to m ....
Republican. what does this mean? if you re looking at this different, extrapolate that out. oftentimes we talk about the generic ballot and we expect the viewer to understand this. i converted this. the final generic balance is the estimated gop seats won. basically what we expect is that the range that we ve been in, generally suggests that republicans will get north of the 218 seats they need for a majority. anywhere from basically 226 seats to 236 seats. that s the middle estimate. there s a margin of error associated with this. generally speaking it seems like republicans are on the pathway they need to be in order to retake the majority in the house. take the temperature in the sen senate, harry. it s all about the road to 50 seats. democrats likely need to win three or four of these within ....