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Long way behind labour in the polls, 18 points behind, long way behind labour in the polls, 18 points behind, and long way behind labour in the polls, 18 points behind, and when - long way behind labour in the polls, 18 points behind, and when the - 18 points behind, and when the progress 18 points behind, and when the progress that 18 points behind, and when the progress that the 18 points behind, and when the progress that the party- 18 points behind, and when the - progress that the party had seemed to be making progress that the party had seemed to be making in progress that the party had seemed to be making in perhaps progress that the party had seemed to be making in perhaps beginning. progress that the party had seemed i to be making in perhaps beginning to narrow to be making in perhaps beginning to narrow that to be making in perhaps beginning to narrow that leads to be making in perhaps beginning to narrow that leads a to be making in perhaps beginning to ....
Over7000. somerton where borisjohnson was the mp, just over 7000. somerton and fromejust over 7000. somerton and fromejust over 19,000. over 7000. somerton and fromejust over19,000. in north over 7000. somerton and fromejust over 19,000. in north yorkshire, selby and ainsty, just over 20,000. make sense of that for us in context, john. 0ne one way is to remind ourselves that the 18 point lead labour have in the opinion polls is the equivalent of a 15% swing from conservative to labour. in uxbridge and south ruislip, the swing required for labour to win is only 7.5%, in other words, half the national swing. even allowing for local factors, this words, half the national swing. even allowing for localfactors, this is allowing for localfactors, this is a seat labour made relative progress in 2015, 2017, 2019, compared with national performance, the row about the low emissions zone. even so, it is frankly a constituency labour should win. a constituency on everybody s list of seats labour ....
But the lib dems held it between 1997, and 2015. they have long anticipated a by election here so they have been campaigning for a long time. given the circumstances and given the swing required of around 15% is less than the party achieved in tiverton and honiton not far away or their other two by election gains in this parliament, although we have had no polls, the lib dems might succeed in picking it up. taste polls, the lib dems might succeed in picking it up picking it up. we will come back to ou picking it up. we will come back to you shortly- picking it up. we will come back to you shortly. let s picking it up. we will come back to you shortly. let s pick picking it up. we will come back to you shortly. let s pick up - picking it up. we will come back to you shortly. let s pick up on - you shortly. let s pick up on some of the issues with the panel. first of the issues with the panel. first of all, the labour swings necessary. uxbridge and south ruislip, asjohn was saying ....
Politicians. conservatives are gloomy about the prospects of tonight, the polling says you could lose all three. how much pressure would rishi sunak be under attack turns out to be case? i would rishi sunak be under attack turns out to be case? turns out to be case? i think if i m honest, clearly turns out to be case? i think if i m honest, clearly the turns out to be case? i think if i m honest, clearly the backdrop - turns out to be case? i think if i m honest, clearly the backdrop to i honest, clearly the backdrop to these byelections has been a truly difficult and nobody is trying to pretend anything other than that. but what has happened is we have fought these byelections very hard, we have been putting the case out there, i want to thank the activists who have been doing that, i think the priorities, we have got the right, we re not talking about a general election tonight, it s very rare for a government to win by elections in this period of time, so let s see how the nigh ....
Feeling at the moment, having listened to all of that, stephen? much the same as about 20 minutes ago! this is going to be a difficult night. we have fought hard in these by elections, i have been on the ground in uxbridge most of the day and what i hear from a lot of voters, they were going out today, there was not any enthusiasm for keir starmer on the doorsteps. but keir starmer on the doorsteps. .. but the are keir starmer on the doorsteps. but they are fed up with the conservatives?- they are fed up with the conservatives? ., ., , , , ., conservatives? no, no surprise to me, and conservatives? no, no surprise to me. and l conservatives? no, no surprise to me. and l have conservatives? no, no surprise to me, and i have done conservatives? no, no surprise to me, and i have done some - conservatives? no, no surprise to me, and i have done some of- conservatives? no, no surprise to l me, and i have done some of those other by elections and people say, we are not going to give yo ....