Positive data surprises especially in the US have continued to mostly drive interest rates higher and the USD stronger over the last two weeks. Americans increased their consumption by 0.4% in February and reduced their savings rate to its lowest level since December 2022, while the ISM survey showed a clear positive surprise in March for US manufacturers who are now reporting expansion, also for the first time since 2022. While core PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred measure) came out as expected for February, 0.3% m/m price increase is still too much, and the January number was revised up to 0.5% m/m. All in all, the data does not support an early rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, among others, signalled over Easter that the direction of interest rates is still down, but that the strong data allows for waiting in order to gain more confidence about declining inflation before moving. The market is now pricing almost no chance of a May rate cut, instead looking for June. Key data to watch will be the jobs report later today (Friday) and March CPI on Wednesday next week.