Last night. So where was the front runner. And cold war. No its not our imagination ladies we are freezing at the office. The new study that shows its outdated thermostat science from the 1960s thats to blame and might just have the guys feeling the heat today, tuesday, august 4th 2014. Announcer from nbc news this is today with matt lauer and savannah guthrie, live from studio 1a in rockefeller plaza. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to today on a tuesday morning. If your alarm didnt wake you up this morning the lightning may have done the trick. A major storm came through. Lots of thunder and lightning. Beautiful images captured here in new york city. Well tell you more about that storm in a couple of minutes and our top story is related to the weather as well. A severe storm and second deadly tent collapse in as many days. This time during a crowded circus performance up in New Hampshire. Ron, good morning to you. Good morning to you, matt. The circus big top lies flat as a pancake there on the fairgrounds. Its hard to see in the morning and also hard to imagine how shocking and terrifying it was for the Children Family spectators that survived the ordeal. Investigators have been working and theyll continue all day trying to figure out how a circus became such a disaster. For the second day in a row weather turned outdoor fun into tragedy after a severe storm blew down a circus tent in lan lancaster lancaster, New Hampshire. About 100 people were inside the tent watching the Walker Brothers circus around 5 30 p. M. When 60 Miles Per Hour winds, one inch hail and lightning caused the tent to come lass. White fields groveton jefferson respond mutually to lancaster fairgrounds. Circus tent collapse. Minimum of radio traffic, please. Police not releasing the names of the deceased. Described them as a young hand and a young girl. Both spectators here to see the show. At least 15 victims were taken to four area hospitals. The National Weather service had issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the area during the time of the collapse. Well be looking at the construction of the tent and how it was set up. These are fairly substantial structures when theyre put up and we havent had any issues in the past. The accident comes just one day after a man died and more than a dozen were injured when high winds caused a tent to collapse during a sudden storm at a festival in the chicago suburbs. Now here in New Hampshire today theyre still trying to learn the seriousness and magnitude of the injuries suffered by the spectators and perhaps circus performers as well. We reached out to the operator of the circus Walker Brothers international based in florida. So far nothing from them. No comment or response to what happened here. Matt and savannah back to you. Ron, thank you very much. From dangerous storms in the east to raging wildfires out west crews are being pushed to the brink of exhaustion battling the rocky fire in Northern California and conditions there are not helping. Nbcs joe frier has the latest for us this morning. Good morning. Good morning, savannah. This fire now burned about 100 square miles. Right now 13,000 people remain evacuated. Every time firefighters begin to slow it down the flames seem to shift into something unexpected. The rocky fire is devouring newer in New Territory this morning after leaping over highway 20 in multiple spots. This is not what firefighters wanted. The flames now burning on the north side of highway 20. The flames are unpredictable. Whipped up by winds in one direction one minute and another direction the next. Today i saw three or four different heads from the fire and each one was kind of leaning a little bit different direction. A lot of fire activity. Very active burning. From a helicopter flying over the scene you can see miles of charred land. An area at least twice as large as san francisco. A lot of firefighters have expressed they have never seen this in their career. Its burning with great intensity. Down below rick sanders is the only one in his neighborhood yet to evacuate. He stayed behind to defend his home of 30 years which rests just a few blocks from the flames. It has been almost this close before. But not this intense and this close. Its pretty hot fire. Probably scariest one that i think ive seen. His home is among 7,000 structures still at risk. Wildfires are burning across the drought stricken west with more than 20 major fires in california plus others to the north in washington and oregon. But its the rocky fire now 7 days old that wont be contained burning too close for comfort. Our team experienced the fires erratic behavior firsthand yesterday when the flames jumped over the highway we were well over a mile away but then we heard on the scanner the fire could be heading toward our direction in just 30 minutes time. Prompting our team to quickly evacuate as a precaution. Matt and savannah. It can just shift on a dime as we saw there. Thank you so much. Lets turn to politics now. Voters were given a taste of what they can expect in thursdays first republican president ial debate. During a Candidate Forum in New Hampshire last night. But the most talked about contender, donald trump wasnt there. Nbc National CorrespondentPeter Alexander is in manchester. He has more. Hi peter. Reporter good morning to you. This is the end of the political preseason. The 2016 regular season kicks off thursday night. Just two days from now but here last night 14 republican rivals in this first primary state tested out their best talking points trying to nail down that Job Interview but among those missing, donald trump. Ahead of thursday nights debate the pregame warm up. 14 republican candidates sharing a single stage in New Hampshire. But donald trump skipped the forum touting his front runner status with a press release instead. Will you attack donald trump . No. My goal is to let people know what i think. Should donald trump have been here . It would have been nice but, you know, im sure he had something more important to do. The two hour forum played out like political speed dating. The gop contenders saving their best barbs for president obama and the clinton. She lied about benghazi. I have been dealing with this crowd for 20 years. Im fluent in clinton speak. When he says bill says i didnt have sex with that woman. He did. The latest republican turning to a stunt to distinguish himself. In texas we cook bacon a little differently than most folks. Cooking bacon on the barrel of a machine gun. Machine gun bacon. And now more red flags for Hillary Clintons campaign. The new nbc news wall street journal poll Shows Nearly Half of americans have a negative view of the former secretary of state. After almost 25 years in the National Spotlight clinton is trying to reintroduce herself once again with ads focussing on her late mother dorothy, her inspiration. When i think about why im doing this i think about my mother dorothy. Still up in the air whether joe biden will jump into the race. Sources telling nbc news the vp is still undecided. On tap today a private lunch with the president. No word if 2016 is on the menu. So where was donald trump last night . He said that he wasnt here because he thinks hes not going to get the local newspapers endorsement and he thought that 14 republicans was simply too many for a proper forum but matt he says that hes a nice guy and he will be there thursday night but he will only attack if someone hits him first. Peter alexander, peter, thank you very much. Lets bring in chuck todd. Nbcs political director and moderator of meet the press. Good morning to you. Good morning, matt. Have the latest bloomberg poll on the republican side. You factor that in with the four most recent other polls and you get a clear sense of who is is going to be on stage on thursday night. What jumps out . Well the fact that Donald Trumps lead continues to grow. He really is consolidating at least sort of the antiwashington support inside the Republican Party and it really is just eclipsing everybody. By the way, matt it does look like the 11th spot right now is where rick perry and if you believe fox and theyll speak to their ten cutoff he wouldnt make it but they dont like the idea of decimal points deciding 10 and 11 so more likely there will be an 11th podium thursday night. When you get donald trump standing in the center of the stage that makes that person a juicy target. What is the risk reward for another candidate taking him on directly . Well look the risk is if you attack him, he will counterpunch. He said it. He said it to me on sunday. Thats what he does. But he did say he doesnt plan on going on the attack first. And i think that that is sort of an interesting decision that some of the candidates make. Some of the ones in low Single Digits are incentivized to go after him because they want the moment or the tv highlight but if youre jeb bush or scott walker and youre playing the long game you probably dont want to get into a food fight with him although the moderators will try to set that up and that will be the most sense moments of the evening. Particularly bush versus trump. Imagine a nascar driver mentally preparing for a race knowing one of the drivers will be drunk. Thats what prepping for this debate will be like. Those are his words and not mine. Lets move on. Lets take a look at numbers from the latest nbc news wall street journal poll. These are favorability numbers for jeb bush and Hillary Clinton. I want you to understand something about jeb bush compared to mitt romney. Very similar candidacies. Theyre the establishment pick. Mitt romney was that guy four years and already jeb bush has higher negative ratings at this point in time in the campaign than mitt romney did. Mitt romney barely got the republican domination when there was this antiestablishment uprising and they went candidate shopping and ended up with san toir torum. He may have all the money in the world but right now hes in bigger trouble than people think. On the Hillary Clinton side her numbers . Her numbers, she has higher negatives, lower favorable ratings right now than at any point in time did Barrack Obama. So you have the two dynasty candidates and theyre in a worst position for Hillary Clinton than Barrack Obama ever was during his 8 years and for jeb bush already at a worst position than mitt romney was at this time and he struggled to get that nomination. The two dynasty candidates in an antiwashington atmosphere theyre struggling more than ever before. Chuck, thank you very much. Lets turn to tamron in for natalie and an arrest has been made in the shooting of a Police Officer. Yes we van update on that. Good morning, everyone. The man suspected of gunning down a Memphis Police officer is in custody this morning after an extensive manhunt. Police say 29yearold tremayne wilbourn turned himself into federal authorities in memphis on monday. Hes facing firstdegree murder charges in saturdays shooting death of officer sean bolton. He was shot multiple times after coming across a drug deal taking place in a car that was parked illegally. An outbreak of legionaires disease claimed the lives of several people here in new york city. More than 80 people have been diagnosed with the disease which is caused when water contaminated with a certain bacteria is inhaled into the lungs. The bacteria were discovered last week at a bronx hotel and in some hospital equipment. Some frightening moments in the netherlands monday when two massive construction cranes fell over on to a group of houses. The two heavy machines were lifting part of a bridge when they toppled over on to nearby residential buildings and a couple of businesses. Up to 20 people are believed to be injuried in that accident. Safety officials are still investigating it. And at least five cars were damaged by an unmanned run away garbage truck near pittsburgh. The driver and another trash collector stepped about 10 feet away from the truck when the brakes became disengaged. They were terrified surely. Thankfully no one was injured but thats what you call a bad day at work. For the first time this morning were hearing the dramatic details from a man that tread water for four hours off the coast of new jersey. Hoisted to safety in the dead of night. Lucky to be alive. After falling overboard this man had been swimming for four hours, 44 miles off the coast of new jersey. The boat went this way and i fell right out. Freezing cold without a life jacket praying for a miracle. It was a big thunderstorm. Giant bolts of lightning and just waves that were huge. What started as a fun day of fishing with a friend turned into every sailors worst nightmare. By the time i came out of the water i saw the boat and it kept going. Man overboard. The wind was so bad a. It was blowing me back or it was blowing the ship away from me. Nearly drowning he says he swam about ten miles. I coughed water out of my lungs so many times and all i would have had to do was just take one breath of water and it was over. Numb from the cold and cramping up thoughts of his family were what kept him alive. I just couldnt picture the next day somebody coming to tell them that im not going to be home anymore because i knew it would ruin their lives. I almost lost my whole world. I love him more than anything. Finally reunited with his boat his friend threw him a lifeline and then this daring coast guard rescue air lifted him to the hospital where he made a full recovery. Im just happy to be here. I really am. I bet he is. Its an incredible story matt and savannah. Without that coast guard video a lot of times people dont believe its humanly possible for you to survive in those conditions but there it is on video with him being rescued. Physical stamina and mental stamina. Thinking about his family kept him alive. Thank you. Good news for the folks down in florida. They need some. They have been looking at some places double digit amounts of rain. This is live right now Newport Richey florida and look at the flooding and the river is actually still rising. They have not reached their crest yet. Look at what they got yesterday in the tampa area. I mean it was crazy. Some areas picking up 5 to 8 inches of rain. The good news is its over. Okay. The heavy rain is just about done. Theyll see some scattered showers. You can see them right now but the good news is its just about done. Were going to be looking at these showers and thunderstorms moving through. We have flash flood watches until about 8 00 tonight. Heavy down tpspours this afternoon. Some will be out tomorrow. Some areas 3 to 5 inches. We have a front pushing through and heavy thunderstorms move through quickly. Those will move and then we may see another round of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. 38 Million People at risk for these storms. Fast moving damaging winds and hail later this afternoon. Were going to get to your local youre unpacking already . Yeah, help me find some mugs. Sure. beep hey. O. K. Theyll do. Wake up to the mountain grown aroma of folgers. The best part of wakin up so, where do you want to start . I think this is a pretty good place. Is folgers in your cup good morning. Im meteorologist bill henley. A first alert weather day, a potential for severe storms with damaging winds, even the threat of hail and tornadoes later today. Isolated storms are possible but not an allday rainfall. Well see sunshine to drive the temperatures back into the 90s, hot, humid conditions that weve been dealing with lately. Those thunderstorms later today will be clearing out for tomorrow. Less humid for wednesday and thursday. Heavy rainfall on friday clearing out this weekend with sunshine sunday up to 85. Have a great day. Thats your latest weather. Thank you so much. Coming up an emotional plea. Amy schumer opens up to john stewart about her new mission to curb gun violence. Plus could the death of cecil the lion bring a game to big game hunter. The new crack down on airlines to deter hunters. I am never getting married. Never. Psssssh. Guaranteed. You picked a beautiful ring. Thank you. Were never having kids. Mmmmmm. Breathe. I love it here. We are never moving to the suburbs. We are never getting one of those minivan . We are never having another kid. Im pregnant. I am never letting go. For all the nevers in life state farm is there. Coming up is your office ac ac sexist. 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