View: Why a recession in the US won't be very bad for India

Harvard's Jason Furman started the year with a 50% probability of a recession within the next one year. He's now recalibrated it to 20%. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, reduced his estimate from 50% to 33%. Goldman's Jan Hatzius was an outlier with a 35% probability at the start of the year. He has now pegged it down to just 15%.

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