US Energy Default Rate to Fall, Risk Remains for Small Issuers A number of highly-levered liquidity strained small energy issuers on Fitch’s Top Bonds (TBOC) and Top Loans of Concern (TLOC) lists remain vulnerable to default, despite our expectation of a significantly lower energy default rate in 2021 relative to 2020, says Fitch Ratings. We project the US energy high-yield (HY) and institutional leveraged loan default rate will decline to 6% and 8%, respectively, this year compared with 14.0% and 19.6% at YE 2020, due to higher oil prices and refinancing of near-term maturities as capital markets reopened in 4Q20. Liquidity remains a key watch item for the sector as many HY issuers continue to generate negative FCF and find it difficult to execute asset sales. However, large and small energy issuers alike have shifted their focus away from production growth toward FCF generation and debt reduction, lowering capex and targeting debt/EBITDA in the 2.0 to 2.5x range. Significant production curtailments are helping the oil price environment. Current oil and natural gas prices are around $60 per barrel (bbl) and $3 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu), respectively, compared with average 2020 prices of $39/bbl and $2/MMBtu.