flooding ravages communities along the mississippi, forcing thousands to evacuate. and threatening to destroy entire towns. we're live as the forecast calls for more rain "early" this thursday morning, may 12th, for more rain "early" this thursday morning, may 12th, 2011. captioning funded by cbs good morning, sun just coming up there. i'm erica hill in washington this morning. chris, good morning. >> good morning to you. i'm chris wragge in our new york studio. got a lot to get to today, including details from osama bin laden's private diaries recovered when he was killed. erica, i know you've had a very busy day, busy couple of days down in washington. that's where we're going to start today. >> we have. and you can imagine, those diaries also hot topic of conversation here in the nation's capital. we are on the set of "face the nation." our thanks to bob schieffer for letting us borrow it for a second day in a row. it is one day after our town hall meeting here in washington. we were talking all about the economy with president obama. we're going to bring you that in our next hour. a fascinating day. the president answering important questions from the audience, and from people at home. and i would imagine that many of you can relate to these concerns. before we get to that, though, this morning, u.s. officials are poring through a diary they say is written by osama bin laden. it was found in his pakistan compound. they say it shows how the al qaeda leader was directly involved in planning future terror attacks. cbs news correspondent mark phillips is london this morning with more. mark, good morning. >> good morning, erica. well according to the material osama was looking to launch another 9/11-style mass casualty attack. not smaller attacks which he said would have less success. as to whether he was directly able to plan those attacks or command just the strategy, that seems to be the question. the conventional wisdom is that he was marginalized, hiding and occasionally just a symbol rather than a director of these attacks. now, after going through these diaries, officials are saying something different. they indicate that he was directing strategy and had input, that he was dealing with al qaeda's number two, ayman al zawahiri and number two, but there was no indication in the material as to where those people were or are. couriers carried these flash drives back and forth, it seems. osama counseled that smaller cities, not necessarily new york, could be targeted. but that those targets had to have massive casualties, as only that would shift u.s. policy. he says, as you said, trains as well as planes could be attacked. but that those attacks ought to happen on specific significant dates. july fourth for example or the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. the material is contained on computers and about at least 100 portable flash drives, also handwritten diaries. he counseled that the focus, as it continues to be in terms of attacks on the u.s. and the west. and that al qaeda should find people other than muslims to carry out those attacks. all in all, though, it seems that osama had become a man who was not in direct control of individual planning, but that he was still a man very much in command of the overall targeting of al qaeda. erica? >> mark phillips in london this morning. mark, thanks. joining us here in washington, cbs news national security analyst juan zarate. juan, nice to actually talk to you face-to-face, by the way. as we look at this, mark made an interesting point just at the end here when he said it seemed to show, these diaries seemed to show, he wasn't necessarily in direct control but that osama bin laden was still somewhat in command. >> i think what we have is a revelation that bin laden was serving still as al qaeda's ceo. he wasn't necessarily placing operatives in western cities, or directing the attacks, plotting per se, but he was still part of the strategic overlay of al qaeda, directing it toward the west. ensuring that the cohesion of the movement was focusing on the united states, and really trying to give it focus in terms of mass casualty events. >> he actually -- there are actually calculations, apparently, in these diaries about those mass casualties. did the math on some of them as to the impact. >> that's right. i think what he wanted to do was clearly replicate the impact of 9/11. not just in terms of body count, which is part of the calculation, but in terms of strategic impact. again, remember, bin laden was the strategic thinking for al qaeda. he wanted to go after the united states to force u.s. withdrawals from muslim lands in the region. so that's what he wanted to do. he wanted strategic strikes. he didn't want pinpricks. he wanted things that were going to affect american policy. >> but with all that focus on the u.s. specifically, not just the western world, but on the u.s., did it actually take away from some of the other theoretically goals of al qaeda within the muslim world? >> it's a great question, erica. because there's tension within the al qaeda movement, between the regional groups, like the groups in yemen and north africa, central asia, and their local goals. versus this global western focus goal that bin laden had been pushing. this was bin laden's innovation in the '90s, to focus the global jihad on the united states. but that has caused tension among the groups in the network. >> so does that make him at this point, or let me ask, is this more of a liability or an asset? >> well, i think bin laden was clearly still an asset. he was the strategic thinker for the group. he was the glue for this global movement, symbol of it in many ways. so i think he was still driving it. but there is tension and friction within the movement. i think that's why losing bin laden will lead to greater division and friction within al qaeda. >> it will be interesting to watch. we'll be watching along with you, juan. thanks. chris, back over to you in new york. >> erica, thank you. now to the latest on the great flood of 2011. forecasters predict rain and thunderstorms for the lower mississippi. that is the last thing people need in that flood-ravaged area. cbs news correspondent mark strassmann is in greenville, mississippi. we join him now. mark, good morning. >> good morning, chris. the great mississippi is flooding, has a new target the mississippi delta. a region that mostly rural, and low income. people least able to recover from a crisis. in greenville, steve's house is gone, and his neighborhood is a soup of filthy floodwater. >> we knew it was going to be bad. but seeing it is different. it's -- you kind of see your whole life floating there. >> reporter: north of greenville -- >> remove everyone from there. >> reporter: melanie is homeless. this photo shows why, her house ruined like all three 300 homes in tunica cutoff. 20 feet of floodwater and with new building codes, rebuilding is unaffordable to most residents. tunica cutoff could be gone for good. >> my home. >> reporter: in mississippi alone, floodwaters have destroyed at least 800 homes. most people will rebuild. but almost no one in tunica cutoff has flood insurance. so like betty west, they'll have to start over somewhere else. >> it's hard to save it, you know what i mean? if you hadn't been there you just don't know. >> reporter: within mississippi spill zone the state is sounding the alarm. governor haley barber is urging anyone who even has a threat of flooding to get out while they can. chris? >> mark, with the mississippi now bearing down on louisiana some worst-case estimates have some low-lying districts in new orleans inundated with up to 25 feet of water down there. that's the worst inundation than katrina. can anything be done to avoid this? >> well, remember the mississippi, if it's allowed to run full bore through louisiana all the way to new orleans, the power of the river could eat away at the levees and potentially expose as many as 1 million people to flooding. so there is one option. morgan today spillway outside baton rouge. it's sort of a pressure valve. if you open it up you could divert about one-third of the river and all of its power into an altogether different area. but here's the issue. there -- it would flood an entire river basin of farmers and fishermen, and that would be a truly devastating event for all those folks. so it's a very, very painful choice. and the u.s. army corps of engineers, major general with the army corps, may have to make that decision as soon as this saturday, chris. >> cbs' mark strassmann in greenville, mississippi for us this morning. mark, thank you. now back to washington and erica hill. chris, thank you. you can expect some sparks to fly on capitol hill today, as top executives from the five biggest oil companies face members of the senate finance committee. they'll be asking about soaring gas prices, and soaring profits. and tax breaks. cbs news congressional correspondent nancy cordes is on capitol hill this morning. good morning to you. what exactly are senators expecting to hear this morning from those oil executives? >> well, democrats want to know whether they really need those $2 billion worth of tax breaks that they get every year. and they're proposing legislation that would strip away those subsidies and put that money towards the deficit. here's their rationale. >> we're here to say enough already to big oil. you're doing just fine on your own. and you don't need the taxpayer giving you an extra handout to help. >> now, the oil companies' ceos are likely to say today, look, we're not the ones who are driving up the price of gasoline. it's investors who are looking for somewhere that they can get a return on their money, and so they're putting it in oil. so don't punish us, especially when all of industry gets this money, in tax breaks, for research and development, erica. >> looking at all of this, nancy, what are the chances that democrats really could pass legislation by stripping away these subsidies? >> right now you've got republicans in the senate saying look, this amounts to a tax hike and we're not interested in hiking taxes on anyone right now. besides, it wouldn't do anything to bring down the price of gasoline. and you've got some democrats from oil-producing states who agree with them. so i think pushing legislation like this, that targets just one industry, and isn't part of a larger tax reform package, is doable. but it's difficult. >> difficult indeed. nancy cordes on capitol hill this morning. thanks. >> sure thing. want to get a closer look now at some of the other headlines we're following for you on this thursday morning. jeff glor is standing by at the news desk. >> erica, good morning to you. good morning to everyone at home, as well. two men are under arrest this morning tied to an alleged terror plot here in new york city. jay dow of our new york station wcbs has more. >> reporter: good morning, jeff. fbi officials confirmed the bureau is not handling this case. it will, instead, be prosecuted by the manhattan district attorney's office under new york state anti-terrorism law. sources tell us one of the two suspects is of north african descent. their arrests late last night come at a time of heightened awareness and anxiety here in new york city, as law enforcement tries to ward off any kind of retaliation from al qaeda or so-called lone wolf terrorists with no official terror group affiliation. the fact that the manhattan d.a.'s office is handling this case seems to support law enforcement's position that this spot, at this point, was more of an aspiration, more than fully operation nal. sources also tell us that new york city mayor michael bloomberg and other city officials will hold a news conference this afternoon to announce details of the arrest. jeff? >> jay dow right here in new york. thank you very much. in libya overnight nato launched new air strikes in support of rebel troops and moammar gadhafi appeared on television. mandy clark is in the rebel headquarter city of benghazi this morning. mandy, good morning to you. let's talk about the significance of the gadhafi appearance. was the regime trying to send a message here at this time? >> well, what's interesting is that we haven't seen him since april 30th. and that was before a nato strike killed one of his sons and three of his grandchildren. now, libyan government said that gadhafi was there but escaped unharmed. as the days passed and he failed to appear on television, people were really beginning to wonder what had happened to him. so yesterday, we saw footage of him. and what was really interesting was the camera seemed to focus on a television that had yesterday's date, in a way it seemed like a hostage video where the captive is made to show a newspaper to prove that he is alive. what's also interesting is the location. the libyan government made a point to say that the meeting with so-called tribal elders happened at tripoli hotel. now, there's one speculation that this is the same hotel where the foreign journalists are kept. and that,of course, a location that nato would never strike. >> okay, mandy clark in benghazi this morning. mandy, thank you very much. two flight recorders from the air france jet that crashed into the atlantic ocean almost two years ago arrived in france today. investigators say it will take at least three days now to get any information from these recorders, but they do say the recorders appear to be in very good shape. flight 447 was en route from rio de janeiro to paris when it crashed, killing all 228 people on board. a court in germany this morning convicted former u.s. citizen and accused nazi death camp guard john demjanjuk. demjanjuk who is now 91 years old was charged with more than 28,000 counts of accessory to murder. all for deaths that took place during world war ii. the german court in munich sentenced demjanjuk, who is in ill health, as you can see, to five years in prison. former house speaker newt gingrich is officially a candidate for president again. he made it official on the internet. >> i believe we can return america to hope, and opportunity, to full employment, to real security, to an american energy program, to a balanced budget. >> of the major republicans only gingrich has officially announced, mitt romney, and rick santorum have formed exploratory committees. evangelist billy graham is resting comfortably at a hospital in north carolina. the retired preacher checked himself in yesterday and is being treated for pneumonia, we're told. a spokesman says he is not in acute situation. and it appears facebook has banned mark zuckerberg. no, not that mark zuckerberg. a man named mark zuckerberg, a bankruptcy lawyer from indianapolis, says he had his facebook account deleted. facebook apparently thinks he's a fake and has a policy against using fake pages or names. there's mark zuckerberg right there. mark said he is the real deal. he said he sent them his passport and driver's license to proof it and now facebook has apologized and says they'll reactivate the account. mark zuckerberg said in 2004 he was the only mark zuckerberg anybody knew about. now he's not. chris, back to you. >> the guy's going to have 5,000 friends like that, though. i bet he gets good reservations. marysol castro sheer with our first check of the weather on this thursday morning. >> good morning, everyone at home. it's kind of a busy day in the weather world so let's take a look at the national outlook. we have a pretty normal out in the west coast we do have some showers to contend with in the pacific northwest. in boston and new york it continues to be partly cloudy. that keeps temperatures in the 60s. take a look at the big swath of thunderstorms and severe weather. unfortunately, it is hitting the same exact area as it did yesterday. 14 states. these storms rolled through in the afternoon hours. so what are we looking at? well it looks like gusty winds, tropical storm force winds are going above 50 miles per hour. we're looking at small hail, and, of course, the possibility of a tornado and a twister. this is a very slow-moving storm. another area of severe weather is in and around the great lakes. the rain associated with the storm, anywhere from one to three inches. and unfortunately, it's going to hit the same exact area that we're looking at in terms of the flood zone. but this rain is expected to last at least through friday. and the heat. same exact area as yesterday. 86 in dallas, 92 in atlanta. 91 in tampa. >> thanks so much. that's your latest weather. now over to erica and chris. >> marysol, thank you very much. still ahead here this morning on "the early show," tougher trading rules for pilots after an horrific plane crash in western new york. are the new regulations enough to keep you safe? we're going to look at the proposed changes that have just been released. erica? >> and chris, americans still so concerned about the economy. we wanted to give you a chance to talk to the president. just ahead, the cbs news town hall on the economy, when you're asking the questions. this is "the early show" on cbs. 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