both shots. >> well, the photographer's shot was much better than tiger's, let's put it that way. because that ball is supposed to be going over his head, not directly at the camera. we're going to talk to the photographer. >> you mean that was not the plan? not exactly. also ahead this morning, do you remember that famous scene in "when harry met sally" when meg ryan gets very animated and the woman says, i'll have what she's having. there's a new survey this morning that says women fool men a lot more than men realize. so we'll give you the details of that ahead this tuesday morning. first off the top the latest on that heightened terror alert. u.s. officials now believe that a group of germans and britons are part of a terror cell plotting to strike against european cities. cbs news homeland security correspondent bob orr has been following this for us and he joins us with the latest. bob, good morning. >> good morning, maggie. well, u.s. drone strikes inside pakistan have apparently targeted operatives training for those attacks against europe. sources believe a german terror cell is at the center of the current threats and pakistani officials now say that some of those killed were germans. but u.s. officials caution it's unclear if those killed were connected to the plots and say the threats remain active. security forces throughout europe remain on guard as intelligence officials work to stop attacks against major cities. sources say al qaeda and affiliated terror groups are plotting multiple attacks. likely targeting transit systems, tourist attractions and popular hotels. like those in the 2008 moss kerr in mumbai. officials fear some trained operatives have already been dispatched but there is no hard, specific information as to timing or targets. >> we're in the middle sequence of this plot where we know it's under way. we know it's been directed by al qaeda. but we don't know when it may be executed, and we don't know who's going to perpetrate it. >> reporter: japan has now echoed an alert from the u.s. state department, warning travelers that much of europe could be a danger zone. german officials have called the warnings alarming. u.s. attorney general eric holder conceded the threat information is vague. but added -- >> we have, i think, sufficient information that justified the issuing of the alert. >> reporter: tourists have heard the warning. >> trying to keep an open view. you know, i keep my eye out. >> reporter: but travelers are not canceling european trips. >> you really can't do anything with these threats. you have to stick to your plans, run your course. otherwise, they win, don't they? >> reporter: now there's still no intelligence connecting the current european threats to any new plots against the united states. but officials say the long-term desire of al qaeda to hit us again is undiminished. maggie? >> bob orr in washington. thank you, bob. now at 7:03, here's harry. >> all right, maggie, now to politics. the midterm elections four weeks from today. and the candidates are back home, hitting the airwaves with some feisty new campaign ads. cbs news congressional correspondent nancy cordes has the latest. nancy, good morning. >> good morning, harry. and there are a few recent developments that lead democrats to hope that their losses this election season may not be as bad as they had feared. >> this is barbara boxer's california. trillions in reckless, wasteful spending. destroying small business. >> reporter: republicans are pouring $2 million into the california senate race. >> killing jobs. crushing hopes. >> reporter: after polls showed democratic senator barbara boxer reclaiming her lead. >> the pundits have already decided that the democrats are losers. we're going to lose, lose, lose. there's only one problem with that. the voters haven't voted yet. >> reporter: democratic senator patty murray has also seen a rebound in her numbers. as has democratic candidates for governor in illinois, ohio, and california. >> they're starting to see that around the country, because a lot of democrats held their advertising money until the last couple of months of the election, when people are paying attention the most. >> reporter: democrats used their fund-raising advantage to dominate the airwaves in september. mostly with negative, personal ads. >> appeared on the d.c. madam's phone list. >> reporter: and at least one republican, tea party-backed delaware senate candidate christine o'donnell, has a new ad that directly k458 edges her negative press. >> i'm not a witch. i'm nothing you've heard. i'm you. none of us are perfect. >> reporter: but now that october is here, both sides are unleashing everything they've got. >> would you lie about serving in a war? >> we have learned something very important today that since i served in vietnam. >> dick blumenthal did. again and again. >> reporter: even the president is entering the ad wars. >> new orleans needs senator bridgeman in congress. >> reporter: mr. obama takes his first spot of the presidential season for a democratic candidate in new orleans. and why did that candidate get the special treatment? because he's from one of only about eight districts around the country where democrats have a realistic shot of winning a seat currently held by the gop. harry? >> nancy cordes in the capitol this morning. thank you very much. joining us now is cbs news political analyst john dickerson. good morning. >> good morning, harry. >> let's talk about some of these senate races that are so tight, so important out there. especially this one in connecticut that nancy was just talking about. who are these people and what's at stake? >> richard blumenthal is the attorney general, longtime politician in connecticut. quite popular. was supposed to have this race in the bag. linda mcmahon, the ceo of world wrestling entertainment, has been taking the chair to blumenthal. time and again she's called him a liar. on tv we just saw that ad. she's running on her business experience. blumenthal is saying, you know, in government you can protect jobs, too, and that's what i've done. >> and this was a seat that was supposed to be so safe. chr chris dodd has held this in ee termty almost. >> that's exactly right. nobody was expecting linda mcmahon. but she spent a lot of her own money. again she's saying i can make jobs and in this terrible economy that's what people want to hear. >> maybe that really is the thing that makes the difference. hit nevada, if you don't mind. this is a really, really interesting race, too. >> well, harry reid is the biggest target out there. right? an incumbent. the leader of the democrats in the senate. he's in trouble. sharron angle, longtime assembly woman, six years as an assemblywoman, is a tea party candidate and she was recently caught on tape with another tea party candidate eating away at her vote. and she had a private meeting with him, said get out of the race because if you're in the race you're going to take my votes and give harry reid the win. it's neck and neck right now. >> she's also been bad-mouthing the republican establishment, which makes it so interesting. she is a personification of this battle within the republican party. >> that's right. if you want to behave in private the way you behave out loud, that's what she did. caught on tape saying the republicans have lost their way, they have no principle. awkward, she's in washington raising money with these republicans this week. >> here's another race. all of these senate races i think are particularly interesting. joie manchin, very popular figure as governor. he's in the race of his life. >> another one, democrats thought they were going to win. this is a red state, though. obama lost it by 13 points in 2008. john raese, a businessman running on that, i'm a businessman, not a politician. you don't like politicians, you'll like businessmen, elect me. he's doing well. both parties spending a lot of money in the state. >> this is also robert byrd's seat which is the longest person to hold a senate seat in the history of the country. there's supposed to be almost a gimme for the democrats. >> that's right. popular guy. longtime serving. but the byrd coattails don't exist anymore. >> so let us look at the senate then and talk about how many seats are really up for grabs, and you can see, here are the democrats in charge. here are the republicans in the minority. how many are we really talki ii about? >> the magic number are ten. there are no republican senate seats certainly in danger. but there are 13 democratic seats in danger. republicans have to take ten of those. they've got about six or seven kind of that they can count on. those last three are quite tough, though, some of these democratic senate seats are looking a little better for democrats. >> all right. and then let's take a look at the house then, too. because this is here i got to undo my drawing, sorry. here is the big blue democratic majority. and the republicans in the minority. what kind of numbers are we talking about here? >> the magic number in the house is 39 seats. republicans to take away from the democrats. they've got about 20, 25 in the bag, because of history, and because democrats really have seats 239, have seats in republican districts that they really shouldn't have democratic representatives. so about 25. at least about 15 to 20 that republicans have to take away in >> here's what's interesting about it. nancy talked about it in her piece this morning. republicans wanted this election to happen today. yesterday, two weeks ago, because there really does seem to be some of the mojo that they had built up over the last month or two, seems to be eroding a little bit. >> that's right. democrats are coming home. and every democrat will tell you, and even republicans admit this, democrats usually break late in these campaigns, and also congress is off the tv. they're no longer bickering about legislation. congress is quite unpopular. it's leaders, both democrat and republican are unpopular. they're off the tv. that helps democrats, because people are reminded of what they don't like. >> that's a plus 39 by the way. john dickerson, thanks very much. i really appreciate it. erica hill is right over here at the news desk and she has the rest of this morning's news. >> i could tell that's a 39, harry. good morning to everyone at home. we begin in the southwest, where more severe weather is expected today. yesterday strong winds and heavy rain hit parts of new mexico, arizona and nevada. that rain causing flooding in an area east of las vegas. and in phoenix, severe thunderstorms forced more than 30 airline flights to divert from sky harbor airport. lightning struck a house in mesa, arizona, and this young man was inside. >> and then we went outside, and we were like uh-oh, the roof is on fire! >> an accurate assessment there. the lightning did spark a fire. the good news here, no one was hurt. the federal government is taking a swipe at chris card companies. the justice department suing visa, mastercard, and american express yesterday for alleged anti-competitive practices. justice officials say the companies prevented merchants from offering discounts or rebates for using a particular card. american express is fighting the suit. visa and mastercard have already settled. in paris this morning, a court found former stock trader jerome karviel guilty in market fraud. he was sentenced to three years in prison and ordered to repair the staggering $6.5 billion his bank lost. the federal government out with new and tougher crash test ratings for 2011 model cars. the stringent tests include new technology, and a side crash to mimic a collision with a tree or telephone pole. only two got the highest five-star rating. the lowest score went to the nissan versa with just two stars. some incredible video to share with you this morning of a woman in brazil who survived a horrifying accident. you'll see here on this video, she's walking in the street. watch now as she gets hit by a speeding car. you saw she was thrown into the air. she lands at least 25 feet down the street. incredibly, she suffered only minor injuries. and some more video that we want to share with you. this one from a daredevil who got very close to a fiery volcano. the video has gone viral online and it shows extreme climber drew bristol, wearing a protective suit, just yards from a lake of lava. you see him there on the left side of your screen. it's a lake of lava on an island in the south pacific. there are plenty of warnings to televise fors to keep the distance from the crater. he said he wanted to experience inside the volcano. we do not recommend you ever try that. there's new optimism this morning that those 33 miners trapped in chile may soon be rescued. cbs news correspondent seth stone has more. >> reporter: the trapped miners may be freed much sooner than expected. so says chile's president. in a radio address broadcast in chile, he said he hopes they are out by mid-october. that could mean the rescue would come two months earlier than originally predicted. at the drill site, though, that suggestion was downplayed by the rescue operation's technical chief who says -- i understand that everyone's wish, myself included, is to get them out as soon as possible. however, we cannot afford to run any risks. trapped below 700,000 tons of rock, the miners are reportedly getting laundry service. three hot meals a day. sometimes with ice cream for dessert, and believe it or not, they can watch tv on a tiny projector. comforts of home lowered through a narrow shaft. they're on regular work shifts half a mile underground, to clear debris from the three rescue tunnels being drilled toward them. while exercising to prepare for their rescue, and even reportedly getting media training, too. to deal with the hundreds of reporters expected to cover their rescue. seth doane, cbs news, new york. frito-lay is bagging its new environmentally friendly snack bag just 18 months after it was introduced. it was unveiled with quite a bit of fanfare. the sun chips bag was made of compostable material. the problem, though, as you may be able to hear, turned out to be too noisy. and people said opening the bag sounded like breaking glass. frito-lay is now working on a better version. the real issue here is that it made it really difficult for you to sneak a snack in the middle of the night. that was my issue. so i complained. it was not me. welcome back. >> they thought they had problems with owe lest st ra. do you remember that? >> i remember the olestra controversy. it was nothing. >> nice to see you, erica. we have a tale of two coasts. showers on the east coast and showers in sections of the southwest. really, it's too cutoff lows. let's talk about it. low pressure system, not really carried by the jet. kind of wandering on its own going nowhere fast. so you see more showers right along the east coast today. and in the southwest, one to two inches possible. really centered around the phoenix area. that's what we're watching right now. keep in mind, we have the albuquerque balloon festival going on. you're going to see cloudy skies. chance of thundershowers, wind 5 to 10 miles per hour shifting from the north to the south. watch for blowing gusts, 40 to 70-mile-per-hour winds and flash flooding as you get to areas stretching from phoenix up to flagstaff. we'll keep an eye on that. at 7:17, that's a look at your weather. maggie, harry? >> thank you, dave. coming up here for us, new questions about the murder of an american tourist who was jetskiing near the mexican border. we'll talk to his distraught wife. and look out, we're going to speak exclusively with a photographer who took this amazing shot. you're watching "the early show" on cbs. 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[ doorbell rings ] oh, it's original little bite™. we're off to practice keeping 'em full and focused. yeah! we've got big shoes to fill! ♪ but you're not sweet you made my butt fat ♪ sed. ♪ you drove me insane self-control down the drain ♪ ♪ we're over i'm so done with that ♪ ♪ i found a new love a natural true love ♪ ♪ that comes from a little green leaf ♪ ♪ zero-calorie, guilt-free no artificiality ♪ ♪ my skinny jeans zipped in relief ♪ ♪ its name is truvia i had no idea ♪ ♪ no more sprinkling my coffee with grief ♪ [ announcer ] truvia. honestly sweet. there is a widow in texas this morning who's telling just an awful story about an encounter with pirates on a lake along the u.s./mexico border. she says that they shot and killed her husband as they were jetskiing. but this morning, mexican authorities are poking holes in her story and we'll have the opportunity to let her respond to that. we'll talk to her and his family in just a few minutes. also, the ryder cup has wrapped up and tiger woods, who was kind of a last-minute choice. he was a captain's selection, he golfed really, really well. but there was at least one hole in particular where he'd like to have this shot back. this is the shot of a lifetime for a photographer. he's down there, ready to watch tiger woods pitch this ball, and instead of going over his head, it goes right into his camera. look at that. click. we're going to talk to the photographer in an exclusive interview in just a little bit. after this. >> this portion of "the early show" sponsored by subway restaurants. build your better breakfast and grab lunch to go, too. a new survey is getting a lot of buzz this morning. 6,000 people between the ages of 14 and 94, disturbing that they started at 14, but anyway, they were polled about their sex lives and the researchers concluded there's a welcome back to "the early show," it is 7:30, october 5th. that's a nice-looking family out there. welcome back, everybody, how many times have you looked at your cell phone bill and seen all these charges and gone, what is that for? i have no idea what this is for. data charges, service characters. we're going to show you thank you read your bill t