his way on to campus. now instead of picking up his diploma, he's behind bars and facing criminal charges, "today," tuesday, may 18th, 2010. captions paid for by nbc-universal television and welcome to "today" on this tuesday morning. i'm meredith vieira. >> i'm matt lauer. this disaster we're seeing unfold in the gulf may have taken a really troubling turn overnight. if scientists can confirm that the tar balls, for lack of a better expression, that washed up in key west are from that massive oil spill. >> it's still a big question, but the real fear is that the spill has entered the so-called loop current which would spread the oil all along the florida peninsula and up the east coast into the carolinas. monday afternoon officials stressed that had not happened, but the discovery of the tar balls could prove them wrong. we'll go live to the florida keys for more on all of this in a moment. also ahead, coming up we're going to have the parents of 17-year-old chelsea king. they'll open up about their daughter's murder and what it was like to face her killer in a courtroom on friday. coming up, they'll join us for an exclusive live interview, their first since john gardner, that man right there, was sentenced. >> they had very powerful words to say to him in that courtroom. plus, more of our series "today looks back." this morning, matt's story that touched him the most. >> this wasn't an easy one for me. two families connected by a tragic case of mistaken identity after a car crash that left one girl dead and another fighting for her life in the hospital. for six weeks the identity of those girls was mixed up. when the mistake was finally realized, it meant agony for one family, as you can only imagine, joy for the other. and the people that we'll meet today and catch up with are some of the most inspiring and graceful people i've ever met. but let's begin this morning with these tar balls that have been found in key west, florida and the investigation now to figure out where they actually came from. nbc's michelle kosinski is with us now with details. michelle, good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning, matt. just yesterday we were looking at the latest projections of what it would look like if oil got into that loop current in the gulf which some scientists think now is inevitable. it was looking like five to ten days at a minimum for oil to come anywhere close to here. well, as we were doing that, balls of tar were washing up on the southwestern edge of key west. 20 of them, three to eight inches in diameter. so are these coming from the oil spill? do tar balls sometimes wash up here? yes. is this a lot of them? yes. the coast guard basically doesn't want to jump to any conclusions. they'll send the balls of tar to a lab to be tested and try to figure out the origin. federal officials are going to be to examine the coastline today on the ground and from the air. here in the keys, which pride themselves on being laid back and throwing hurricane parties, there is enormous concern now of what oil could do to the tourism economy here and also to the enormous richness of life beneath these waves. >> michelle, let me ask you a question. we had an image, a graphic depiction of this loop current that you're talking about that goes along, around the keys, then up the atlantic coast. are scientists saying it's not a question of "if," but "when" the remnants of this spill or the slick get into that current? >> reporter: that's what they've been saying, that some is bound to get into the current. the question is how much, at what depth, and what kind of effect it will have. the projections we're looking at now don't project it that far out. you're not seeing it in the latest ones we've seen whipping all the way around florida. but if that were to happen, there is still a big question mark could it hit land or coat the shorelines as far south and ft. lauderdale or miami. some scientists are saying probably not. they're thinking maybe farther north to palm beach, up the cape canaveral. no one really knows at this point. that's why it is so disturbing. no one knows if or when they will see oil on these coasts. >> michelle kosinski in the keys for us this morning, michelle, thank you very much. now to the source of the oil spill and bp's defense of its handling of that disaster. for more on that, nbc's mark potter is in venice, louisiana. mark, good morning. let me start with you and ask you what are you seeing and what are people there seeing washing ashore in the gulf coast? >> reporter: well, they're seeing oil. here in louisiana, matt -- good morning to you -- governor bobby jindal says there are 46 miles of shorelines here that have now been oiled -- excuse me -- 19 of them do have tar balls. lot of bugs out here this morning. yesterday an nbc team out here found red gooey tar patches in a marsh area and on a beach, in an area in the southeastern most of louisiana. bp says it is now working on a fix to completely seal that well. perhaps by the end of the week. they'll first use a technique known as a top kill where tons of highly pressurized mud are shoved down in the well and encased in cement. if that doesn't work, they'll try something called a jump shot trying to jam rubber, plastic, copper, even golf balls into that blow-out preventer on the top of the well to jam it up, and encasing that in cement. bp says now it is collecting a fifth of the oil by connecting the oil in a tube to a ship. in washington yesterday at another scene, the senate committee chairman joe lieberman criticized bp for not being prepared for the spill, and also the u.s. government for issuing drilling permits without requiring the property safety measures. >> mark potter in louisiana for us this morning, taking one for the team swallowing a bug for breakfast there. mark, way to go. thanks very much. >> it was good. >> 7:06. now here's meredith. >> matt, thank you. now to politics and what's being done super senate tuesday. three high-stakes primary elections in pennsylvania, kentucky and arkansas that could highlight an anti-incumbent sentiment among voters. nbc'ssavannah gustry is in washington. >> reporter: good morning. this election could provide burning questions to that question -- just how angry are voters at washington. from pennsylvania -- >> i'll do whatever it takes. >> reporter: -- to kentucky. >> i'm not a career politician, i'm a physician. >> reporter: -- to arkansas. the final push. in senate primary races today, it's as though washington itself is on the ballot. >> i'm running for re-election on my record. >> reporter: incumbent candidates are battling fierce challenges from within their own ranks. >> i want to go down to washington, d.c. and be a public servant, not a politician. >> reporter: in pennsylvania, five-term senator arlen specter crisscrossed the state monday, having switched parties, he now has to prove his democratic credentials. >> my voting record has been more with democrats than republicans during my entire tenure in the senate. >> reporter: but the race with congressman joe sestak is still neck-and-neck. >> i respect arlen specter but his time truly has come and it's gone. >> reporter: in arkansas -- >> the real important question is how is the united states senator that's going to represent working class arkansas families. >> i do what's right for arkansas. i answer to you. >> reporter: lincoln is ahead in the polls but if she doesn't get 50% of the vote today, the race is headed for a potentially damaging runoff. in kentucky, the republican race for senate will test the power of the tea party. antitax activist rand paul, son of former presidential candidate ron paul, has the backing of the grassroots conservative group and is leading secretary of state trey grayson who has the support of the republican establishment. >> i know trey grayson and trust him. >> reporter: but analysts say that might not help in an antiwashington year. >> you actually want to be the outsider. this is the year of the outsider and having establishment credentials is not all that helpful. >> reporter: the president campaigned for arlen specter in pennsylvania but that was back in september of last year. he declined to go again for a late push but he will be very close today, meredith, in youngsto youngstown, ohio for an event on the economy. >> yeah, but flying over pennsylvania. savannah gustry, thank you. fox news contributor newt gingrich is the former republican speaker of the house and author of the new book, "to save america, stopping obama's secular socialist machine." before i get to the primaries, talk about a statement in your book that's drawing a lot of attention. you say that obama and the democrats are pushing what you call the secular socialist agenda and you write, "the secular socialist machine represents as great a threat to america as nazi germany or the soviet union once did." can you honestly compare what's going on with the democrats to nazi germany? >> it's not a question of how evil they were. nazi germany was terrible. maoist china was terrible. it was a question of finality. had we lost either of those contests we'd have become a radically different country. the secular socialist agenda is for an america fundamentally different than america has been for the last 400 years. >> when you hear that term, " t "na "nazi," that's one of those inflammatory words that can turn off anybody. >> when you look at threat they presented to american life -- not talking about the moral equivalents -- >> not talking about the mass murder. >> i'm not talking about mass murder. i condemn, as every american should, mao's china, stal in's russia and hitler's germany. our country is a country based on individual freedom and a country in which the government was subordinate to people. is washington dominant or are the citizens dominant? i do believe obama's secular socialist machine threatens to impose in this country a series of bureaucratic decisions that are very dangerous. >> you talk about the threat of obama's administration and the democrat. yet when you look at primaries that we're going to witness today, there is this anti-incumbent mood that's all across the country, regardless of party, republicans and democrats. >> i think the republicans in the last few years earned part of that animus. but if you look at it carefully, tim burns race for the house in pennsylvania is a very important indicator. if he wins, that's a very important signal. i think in all three races you described, my guess is you're going to see the anti-tax change-oriented caidate winning. i think in specter's case, the fact he's been elected for 30 years, the fact they switched parties -- we both wish he would return the money he helped raised. >> if you loses today, is that a referendum on president obama -- >> no. look, i think first of all, president obama is a very attractive, personable leader. he has a wonderful family. i think people are going to like him long after they dislike his policies. there's no evidence in virginia, new jersey or massachusetts that he can transfer that to anybody. he turned out no additional votes for the democrats in any of those three races. >> when you look in kentucky, tea party activists, including sarah palin, are rallying behind rand paul running against trey grayson, the establishment candidate for all intents and purposes. who are you supporting in this race? >> i'm neutral in this race. but rand paul has a huge advantage with jim bunning endorsing. there is no question rand paul represents the more anti-tax insurgent elements of kentucky. >> why are you neutral in this race? in utah you were very clearly for bob bennett. >> bennett was an old friend, he had been around and i think he is an honorable person with 84% conservative voting record. in this case it is an open seat. i have friends on both sides. i'm friends with jim bunning, i'm friends with mitch mcconnell. my hunch that rand paul has the edge today but i don't need to go around the country and get into every single race in the country. >> but if rand paul wins, that's good news for the tea party movement but is it good news for the republicans come november? >> sure. of course it is. if the tea party movement and the republicans stay together to defeat obamaism, the tea party movement adds energy, it adds drive, it adds a toughness that the republican party needs. >> all right, newt gingrich, thank you so much. congratulations on the book as well. it's called "to save america." now let's get a check of the morning's top stories from ann curry at the news desk. a breaking story overnight. a suicide car bomb exploded in afghanistan claiming at least 16 lives, including at least five american service members. the taliban has claimed responsibility. nbc's tom as spepell is in kabu this morning with more. what have you learned? >> reporter: good morning. the suicide driver rammed the convoy of three armored civilian vehicles at the southern entrance to kabul early this morning. the blast killed six nato personnel, including five americans. it also killed ten afghan civilians and injured more than 50. now the city's defenses had been beefed up over the past ten weeks since the last suicide attack here, with an increased number of checkpoints and security patrols. but this shows exactly how determined an attacker can breach those defenses. the taliban has claimed responsibility. it said the attack was carried out by a kabul man using 1,600 pounds of explosives. ann? >> tom aspell this morning, thanks. american missionary laura silsby is returning home today after a judge ordered her released. silsby was found guilty on monday of illegally trying to take 33 children out of haiti after the earthquake there last january but she was sentenced to time served. a former harvard senior has been indicted on larceny and identity theft charges after allegedly duping the ivy league university to admitting him with a fake life history. he claimed he attended m.i.t. and co-authored several books. he was awarded more than $46,000 in financial aid and grants from harvard which he applied for using plagiarized submissions, according to the university. president obama heads to youngstown, ohio today focusing on the jobs and economy. the latest is to be on what the administration calls his white house to main street tour. cnbc's trish regan is at new york stock exchange. europe's debt crisis, is that still a focus today? >> that's the big issue here, what everybody is debating, whether or not the euro zone can really pull itself out of this mess, whether the currency in some cases folks are questioning whether the currency can even survive. this is really the biggest threat that we've seen to the euro since it was first introduced. in fact, it is now at a fresh four-year low against the u.s. dollar. so lots of concerns about europe and what that means, ann, for the world economy. if europe falters, what happens to the u.s.? >> trish regan this morning, thanks so much. cnbc's airing a documentary on the obesity epidemic and its multi-billion dollar cost to american at 10:00 eastern. a harvard study finds that a daily serving of processed red meat like bacon, sausage and cold-cuts leads to a 4 % higher risk of haeart disease and a 20 risk of diabetes. however, unprocessed red meat such as beef and lamb that's not preserved with sulfa nitrates is not linked to an increased risk of those diseases, at least according to the study. 7:16. back to matt, meredith and al this morning. >> so you want to be a network news correspondent? do you really? watch, here it is. what happened to mark potter down in louisiana. watch the bug. >> whoa! >> he actually sucked that in. >> that's what you call having breakfast on the fly! >> whoa! >> he kept going. >> the pro that he is. >> there he is live. none the worse for wear. way to go, mark, nice job. >> thank you. we're calling that the bayou breakfast here. >> mr. roker is here now. >> can't wait for lunch. >> mr. roker with a check of the weather. good morning. light rain and patchy drizzle and fog around the metro area this tuesday morning. radar showing this continuing to advance to the northwest and east. it will be with us throughout the day. temperatures are cool in the low to mid 50s. 54 in washington. high today only near 60 with another passing shower, perhaps later on today, perhaps patchy drizzle as well. overnight tonight, too, a little passing drizzle from time to time. tomorrow, cloudy, upper >> that's your latest weather. there are some new developments in the case of three americans detained in iran since last july, accusedest knowledge. their families say they accidentally crossed into iran while hiking. ann sat down with their moms on monday. ann, good morning. >> good morning to you, matt. up until now the mothers of shane bauer, jash fattal and share ra showered have only had one phone call from their children the last nine months but this morning they're on their way to iran to see their first for the first time since all of this face to face. they're really optimistic they might be able to bring their children home. you seem hopeful in a way that i've not seen you before. why? >> we have been waiting a long time for this day. we are really excited and really happy that we're finally going to get to see our kids. >> we have faith in the compassion of the people and the compassion of the officials. >> of iran. >> of iran. yes. >> what gives you this faith? >> we have faith in humankind. we have to have faith. we have to keep faith for our children. we're going there with a mother's love, which is the strongest love i can imagine. we're going there with pure hearts. we're going there to bring our children home. >> our mantra is, we want to bring our children back. i want to bring my daughter home. we're just going to keep saying that and saying that. >> so, gearing up now for that moment when you walk into the prison and you look for that face you raised from a baby. >> i am so eager to see josh. i can't wait to grab him, hold him, kiss him. the most wonderful moment in our life is when we see our children when they're born. this far outweighs that. to see shane after this long and to be able to give him my love and feel that back is going to be tremendous. >> have you thought about what you're going to say to your daughter? >> you know what? i don't think it is so much about words honestly. i want her to be able to talk to me as much as she needs to for as long as she needs to. >> have you been given any guarantees that besides seeing your children, you'll be able to speak to anyone in the government? >> no. we really don't know what's going to happen when we get there. >> if anyone in the government listens to you, what is your message to president ahmadinejad? >> to allow our children to come home with us. we think this would be a great act of kindness and the world is watching. we would be so grateful to have our children come home with us. >> what would it mean to you if you could actually bring your children home? >> it would be like starting life all over again. it would be like some kind of amazing sort of gift, a rebirth almost for us and for the kids. >> grateful. i mean that's the word i'd think of, is grateful. very grateful. it is going to take time to get back to normal because normal feels far away. >> all of these mothers are telling us they're bringing with them photographs and letters hoping they'll be able to give them to their children and we, of course, wish them the best. very, very tough day. they asked for an opportunity to speak to president ahmadinejad himself. >> still unclear whether they'll get that opportunity. >> that's right. >> ann, thanks very much. 7:22. just ahead, the paints of 17-year-old chelsea king speak out for the first time since th