Pretty decent lead among likely voters 47 to 38 . Then you throw in the registered voters, it goes to 48 to 36 . So, still a healthy chunk there. And then we have the monmouth poll, which has clinton at 50 and donald trump at 40 . Now, both clinton and running mate tim kaine have been in pennsylvania. Weve seen them this past week. Trump and pence are gonna be visiting different areas of the state, mostly outside, out in central and western. Nia, do you get the sense right now that perhaps the Trump Campaign is starting to wonder if it can flip pennsylvania for the first time for republicans since 1988 . Sure, because right now you dont see high energy in the cities. Theyre starting to have a little bit of bubble, which is why youre starting not just starting. Youve been seeing these highpowered circuits going to those essential places. Like, Michelle Obamas been dispatched. The Vice President s been dispatched, et cetera. So, they really need to have that energy for turnout, because its going to be a turnout election. If the trump pence group can get those folks in midstate and out west excited, they might come out in higher numbers if the folks in the cities are just like, eh, well, yeah, i guess. But in talking to people, its quiet, but they really feel like this is an important election, and theyre gonna come out because they just do not want to support donald trump. Maybe thats why were seeing pence and trump going to areas where they know that they have support, some of those areas like southwestern pennsylvania, central pennsylvania. Chester county. Get their base out, right . Matt, the New York Times reported last week that private polls done by the campaigns are showing the gap getting even wider. And these are polls that are not public but done internally, both for the Trump Campaign and also other republican candidates. I think the thing that will tell us the answer to the question is in prior elections, if it had looked like the republican candidate had a shot in pennsylvania 2004, george w. Bush, 2012, mitt romney they put a big push on starting right about now. Sure. And you could see it. And they didnt do it in philadelphia or in the suburban counties of philadelphia. They did it along the southern tier, up towards the erie area, the suburbs around pittsburgh. Im not seeing signs of that from the Trump Campaign, but it could still happen. And i know in those prior races, it did happen right around this time of year. Yeah, because everyone can agree that polls can change really fast. And, also, referring to what nia said, i think everyone can agree theres a high level of enthusiasm on the part of the republicans, which exceeds that of the democrats. And thats a concern, if youre a democrat, and its a source of hope if youre a republican. Things can change quickly. Polls are sometimes wrong, as weve seen repeatedly. And everyone agrees pennsylvanias a key state. The trump people know they have to win pennsylvania, and the clinton people are outspending the trump people in pennsylvania by a significant factor. So, the clinton people are taking pennsylvania very seriously, and we await developments. There is no Trump Campaign. Theres trump. And thats kind of whats been working up to this point. Well, it worked up until the convention. It hasnt worked since the convention. And unless donald trump in tonights event, the town meeting, and in the next debate acts like a guy who could be president , he has no chance of attracting people who are still in the mix for making a decision. And thats not a lot of people in pennsylvania. The Hillary Clinton campaign has been a ferocious campaign. Theyve had the allstar team has been in pennsylvania. Pence i thought did a very good job in the Vice President ial debate. And kaine, who i didnt know much about, really did not come across as a very likable guy end of story. Now its back to donald and hillary. This is not a man who has prepared himself to be president. And i think it comes through. And if it continues to be postdebate attacking Miss Universe or going after people who are totally tangential or irrelevant to the future of the country, this week, bill clinton created an opening on obamacare. He made an extraordinary statement that most people think was a gaffe. I actually thought it was a pretty smart political move because it gives cover to democrats all over the country who can now separate themselves perhaps from obamacare. Ive seen again and again Chester County being sort of this microcosm that people point to for trumps campaign, where he has to win over these suburban voters who they can vote democrat but mostly are republican. And maybe thats why were seeing the gap, because hes starting to lose them. I think you kind of suggested that, jim. Yeah, and i think our good friend val, whos on the show, is the chair of the Republican Party in Chester County. And i know just from talking with him on the air with him, hes much more optimistic about the Toomey Campaign than he seems to be. I dont want to speak for him, but it seems like hes much more optimistic about toomey. But as sam suggested, there are very few undecideds left in this race. People know who theyre gonna vote for, even if theyre not telling the pollsters or anyone else. Its a matter of motivation. Exactly. It really is a matter of motivation, and in Chester County i will say you see plenty of trump signs. Riding around, youll see plenty of trump bumper stickers not so much for Hillary Clinton. And thats not unusual because to be a democrat in Chester County, you still its one of those bubbling things. Its almost like maybe where Delaware County was about 10 or 15 years ago. Theres still opportunity for growth, but that enthusiasm is not really high for clinton there. Its higher for trump viscerally. However, again to the point, toomey is really whats helping to drive that overall. Is pennsylvania to the republicans sort of like lucy is with the football to charlie brown, because, honestly, weve seen this in many election cycles since 1988, whether it was romney, whether it was mccain, whether it was bush, making that late push for pennsylvania and then, all the sudden, saying, were pulling out cause its just not gonna work again. It might be happening once again. If the race tightens up, and the only way thatll happen is if donald trump starts to perform like a guy preparing himself to be president something i am dubious about his capacity to do this will be like a football game. Itll be the last 2 00 of the game. Who has the ball . Who can control the clock . Who can get across the goal line . I dont see it happening. I just think that the Trump Campaign has fallen apart, and we will only be catching up to that fact when the election is over. The tightening of the president ial race, even if the president ial candidate does not win the state, as george w. Bush did tighten and did not win pennsylvania 2004, it greatly helped the rest of the republican ticket. Arlen specter and tom corbett, who ran against me, had a very narrow victory, and our polling showed that that narrowing, with bush getting to within about 2 points of john kerry, very, very much helped other republicans in pennsylvania. Absolutely. You mentioned the Toomey Campaign. Lets get to that, that Pennsylvania Senate race, leading the nation in outside Campaign Donations 57. 5 million so far, according to the pittsburgh tribune. And even though the republican incumbent, pat toomey, has outraised his opponent, Katie Mcginty, the 6abc f m poll still has the challenger in the lead. Well show that to you now. Mcginty with 41 and toomey with 35 . We have a monmouth poll there it is, 6abc f m poll. Now you see that has mcginty in the lead. The monmouth poll has them both tied at 46 . And then ill throw in another poll. Were not gonna put it up, but the Quinnipiac University poll has toomey at 50 and mcginty at 42 , which is an 8point lead. All these polls are all over the place. Jim, what does that tell you right now . Well, i think the race is very volatile. The amount of advertising and kudos to channel 6 for running all these ads. They pay. We put them on. We check them. Certainly. And its unprecedented in the country. I think i saw something last week that this may be the most Expensive Senate race with the most tv ads, and all our viewers know it cause they see them all the time. I think its gonna come down turnout, and i think its gonna come down to what i just said. If hillary can maintain a large lead in pennsylvania 5 , 6 president ial win in this state is big. Youd have to go back to bill clinton in 96 to get those kind of numbers. Toomey is outperforming where he should be given the president ial impact. Toomey is keeping this race close. He has been pounding Katie Mcginty. The top number i saw in those three polls was in the low 40s for Katie Mcginty. So, if youre pat toomey, what you want is if the president ial race gets to be 5 or 6 , you have a decent chance. If it gets to be 8 to 12 , it would be very tough to hold onto that. But hes holding his own, and this money thats pouring in i think is actually being used by toomey quite effectively. Clearly its about coattails. Ive got to say that, because if Hillary Clinton has a longenough coattail, Katie Mcginty will be the next senator for pennsylvania. But if those coattails are short, she doesnt have a shot because pretty much toomey has decentenough relationships. We do have a state where we do ticket splitting, but it really will have to be a lot of enthusiasm to say go the straight big d all the way down the ticket. And youre seeing that with the downballot races all throughout the state. Coattails can work the other way around. I mean, toomey is doing a lot of ground work out in the state. He could have coattails that benefit donald trump. People are gonna go to the polls to vote for toomey the up ticket. Yeah. Who are they gonna vote for for president . Well, i guess theres this guy running. Youre seeing that exact same thing in ohio with senator rob portman, who is helping trump, who has a 5point lead in ohio. So, toomey is an interesting guy, and Katie Mcginty is in her first campaign, and were gonna have a debate on channel 6 on october 24th. I think that will tell a lot. Lets put up the slate right now. I do have one more thing i want to mention. But jim gardner will be hosting a debate. Its right here in our 6abc studios the last debate of the campaign between toomey and mcginty. That takes place monday, october 24th, at 7 00 p. M. One final thing given the gobs of money in this senate race, whats that going to do to the person who wins the job . In what way do you mean . It kind of complicates things, but are we cynical enough that we just dont even worry about these things anymore . There are a lot of obligations coming. Sure. Absolutely, but i think were pretty cynical at this point. [ laughter ] thats what i was afraid of. Both of these candidates, i think, reflect the principles of their party and the points of view of their party, and the sources of capital that are driving these campaigns, both the candidates campaigns and the pac campaigns, are reflecting those principles. But i think if Katie Mcginty were to win, i think that would be seen as a national thing. Very few women no women ever from pennsylvania. Very, very difficult to beat an incumbent United States senator, unless youre rick santorum. Its really hard to win that. I think Katie Mcginty would be poised to be almost an elizabeth warrentype figure on the National Stage if she could pull this victory off. Whether its a good thing or a bad thing, the National RifleAssociation Just downgraded toomeys rating from an a to a c, which i dont know how he plays that within the base of his own party. Probably saw it coming. Well, he did have to see it coming. Sure. But it may work for him. It may help him. It could help him in the suburbs. Lets talk about the Vice President ial debate earlier this week, and then we have the second president ial debate tonight. Just throw out there what did you think about. Some people think if pence was on the top of the ticket, theyd have a better chance. Ive heard that. Also, weve heard that governor Chris Christie may be one of the people thats going to be helping donald trump prepare for this one because they say christie is the only one that can be honest with trump and get away with it. I thought that kaine was overthetop aggressive. I thought he was rude. Theyre obviously both bright guys. I think kaine is an extremely bright guy, but he decided to take up the pitbull role, which i didnt understand, because it was unnecessary. But i dont think it makes any difference. I think its a oneday story. I thought pence did a great job for the pence for president in 2020. [ laughter ] it was excellent. Ive never seen a Vice President ial debate and i go way back to dan quayle and Lloyd Bentsen and all that where the candidate didnt stand up for his running mate, for the president ial candidate. Thats kind of your job. Nia, jan, how about trump and clinton tonight . That was the lowestrated Vice President ial poll since 2000, just as the president ial debate was the highestrated president ial poll. So, i think its not the most significant. Nobody made any big gaffes. As sam says, kaine came out of character to be the pit bull, but i think that reflects concern on the part of the Clinton Campaign that we need to leave no stone unturned. Trump clinton tonight what do you think, nia . I think the tunein will be pretty high. I dont think it will be as high as the first debate. The first debate was such a debacle, and people were really amazed. I think people will maybe continue to tune in as the debate goes on, if they look at their social media and hear, oh, this is kind of interesting. But i think a lot of the hype is gonna start to wane. Governor christie is the guy whos like, listen. You have to. What is he telling donald trump . Hes the wrong guy to have to be prepping donald trump for a debate. You need a softer, not bullying. Every word that comes out of christies mouth makes him a bully. Christies told people in press conferences to shut up and insulted them. Should mike pence prepare donald trump for tonights debate . Hes a practiced tv performer. He is. Thats a good idea. I dont think donald trump needs any help telling people to shut up. Exactly. I think hes got that one nailed. But hes not gonna listen to anyone who would adequately prepare him for this. Hes decided what he wants to do, and thats it. More inside story coming up after the break. Inside story is presented by temple university. Remarkable change isnt easy, but for those who take charge, it comes naturally. Explore temples impact. Visit temple. Edu impact. Do you own a plane . Do you own a bank . Pat toomey owned both. But its the fact that toomey owns a seat in the u. S. Senate that should really concern us. While on the Senate Banking committee, pat toomey voted to rewrite rules to help bankers like him. And he tried to eliminate protections put in place to stop wall streets risky practices. Pat toomey looking out for wall street and himself, not pennsylvania. Senate majority pac is responsible for the content of this advertising. Still talking about the last topics. We got more. We got more, folks. So, theres another race thats making big waves locally, one for the Pennsylvania Attorney general. Im going to host a forum with both candidates, who want to succeed Kathleen Kane as the next elected a. G. Republican state senator john rafferty, who is a representative in our area, and democratic Montgomery County commissioner josh shapiro. The forum will air on sunday at 11 30 a. M. On october 16th. Among the many issues restoring trust in the office after the kane disaster, experience, the porngate email scandal, the states opioid epidemic. We could go on. Sam, im the moderator, so tell me what you want me to ask. Well, technically, the winner will be succeeding bruce beemer. [ laughter ] i did say elected. But its unusual to have two candidates from Montgomery County. John rafferty is a state senator. Josh shapiro is the county executive. And this is an election that normally would be decided in the southeastern part of the state, when you have two candidates from the southeast, because basically the west wont even know these people. Josh has got, i think, a very strong position because he did very well in the primary. This is a very strong ticket pull for him. And hes a great candidate. And rafferty i think is a pretty good guy, and hes very knowledgeable. Hes been in the state senate for a term and a half or two terms. But whats going to attract people to this race, when you have this president ial race and the u. S. Senate race . And i think its gonna be very difficult for this race to be anything other than a pull to the top of the ticket. Matt, the thing to watch for, having run for the office twice myself, Kathleen Kanes an aberration in a lot of ways, right . No democrats ever been elected attorney general of pennsylvania other t