Different messages each day, so you cant say it was completely successful. But for those people in the convention hall, they seemed to eat it up. They felt that they got what they wanted. Trump said the things they wanted to hear. He made some entreaties to other parts of american that arent in the base. So, you know, i think they would consider it a success, even with the stumbles. And lets hear from donald trump right now, a little takeoff from the convention. I humbly and gratefully accept your nomination for the presidency of the united states. I am with you. I will fight for you. And i will win for you. The longest speech that weve had from a candidate. Do you think it was effective, or did something get lost in the shuffle between Melania Trump and the alleged plagiarism, between not having ted cruz come on board, and some of the other issues . Those were the high points. [ laughter ] i thought it was a disaster for the republicans. I thought that they stepped on their story and the way they crushed the effort to have a conscience vote. I thought they stepped on themselves with the denial of the melania plagiarism. Giving ted cruz prime time to express, vote your conscience. When the high point of a convention is the performance of the candidates children, that may not be the best message. And i thought trump last night demonstrated one thing and one thing only, which is that he can work with the teleprompter, which was in question. I dont think the i would be surprised if theres a bounce. Mm. And thats all that a convention in the polls, right. Thats all that a Convention Really needs to do is give the candidate a bounce. Yes, he did make some overtures to constituencies that hes never spoken on behalf of, but i also think he planted a lot of doubt in the minds of a lot of conservatives. We also heard from the Vice President ial pick, mike pence, of course. We also heard from a number of other people. Chris christie, lets get a sound bite from him since hes our new jersey governor. As to Hillary Clinton lying to the American People about her selfish, awful judgment in making our secrets vulnerable, whats your verdict, guilty or not guilty . Guilty so there was a lot of attack hillary. That doesnt come as a shock. But did you think it was too much of that and not enough of new ideas and heres what we can do for you, not just a vote against her, which would not necessarily be the same thing as a vote for donald . Sure. The first rule of Party Convention is unify the base. There is nothing more unifying in the Republican Party nationally or Donald Trumps campaign nationally than the dislike of Hillary Clinton. Dislike . That is an area, frankly thats a kind word. Yeah, it is. Thats probably one of the high points, is you might see a bounce in the reverse maybe a little less support for hillary based on the republican convention. Unfortunately for the Trump Campaign, that was already the case. People that are supporting trump, a lot of them arent doing it cause they like him so much or theyre in favor of his policies. Its their dislike of Hillary Clinton. And Chris Christie delivered it well, or mike pence certainly had probably the most effective speech. But they were washed out, as sam said and as you said, monica, by a ted not supporting him at his own party and melanias plagiarism. Those things drowned out what should have been donald trump message only. So in the end, did you feel any better about this ticket . Do you think, nia, that the mike pence factor not because of the convention alone, but now Going Forward to november. We have, you know, 3 1 2 months to go. Do you think mike pence was able to neutralize peoples fears that donald might be, in some criticss regard, a loose cannon and a finger on the trigger too fast, that mike pence is the conservative, quiet, measured voice that will balance that . Hes the quiet, measured voice, so to speak. But hes the third, fourth banana in this trump. Circus. Drama. Circus is what it is. I mean, to the point as far as the story being drowned out, i think for the people that were in that hall, they wanted to hear something. They wanted their red meat. They wanted to have a reason to believe, a reason they already didnt like Hillary Clinton, but they just did not feel good about donald trump. He gave them just enough between his speech and mike pences speech, just so they can say, okay. [ sighs ] i can feel not so dirty about supporting this particular person, seriously. I mean, the cognitive dissonance has been horrifying when you look throughout this campaign. When someone looks at facts and says, oh, well, those arent real facts. These are some other types of facts. Well, thats not really plagiarism. Just because someone took someones words verbatim, that doesnt make it plagiarism. It makes it. Something else. Admiration. [ laughter ] but we dont admire this particular first lady. But its the ideas, the concepts. And by the way, did i mention that first lady stole those . Its been a twisted sensibility throughout. And the vitriol that you saw throughout this convention was actually kind of frightening, as im watching. I have spoken to some friends that they are covering it. And its unnerving when you see this mass sea of people with the anger that comes out, with the almost lynchmob mentality that was stoked throughout this. But now we have philadelphia, though, and we have a whole different scenario. So, when we have 50,000 additional people come, a national spotlight, of course, this city is certainly capable and terrific under the national spotlight. But its a different story when we have a lot of protests that are likely to happen. This might be because they feel they can be on a national stage, not against hillary, but just because the medias here, and they have a way to get their message out in general. Dont you think, harold . Well, i think how the protesters are handled in philadelphia will have a lot to deal with how hillary is seen. Its not her fault, you know . Its a local policing matter. But if there is a disruption, a large disruption in the convention or that becomes the story, as numerous things became the story in cleveland, then that will detract from her campaign. But the example that cleveland showed is that you can have good crowd control and allow people to get their message out. Right now, the anticipation is that we wont have that problem in philadelphia, but you have to wonder about that. Okay, and also, as of this taping, she has not named her Vice President ial pick. But we do know there are three people allegedly in the final offing. So would you go with the tim or two toms . What do you think would be the best way to go . I dont think it really matters. All three of those candidates have been vetted. Tim kaine from virginia strikes me as the safest bet the fact that he speaks spanish, the fact that he comes from a state thats in play, the fact that hes been in the senate and he could serve as commanderinchief. But i think the protest issue in philadelphia is something were actually very good at. Philadelphia has been managing protests since 1774. And in philadelphia, this would be a place where you would expect voices to be heard. And it would be, in my mind, in the Democratic Party and Hillary Clintons interests to facilitate the hearing of those voices. It was not in Donald Trumps interests to have a vote on vote your conscience. Although when he did have a heckler, if you want to call her that, or a protester, many people said he handled it the best he has so far in the campaign. He didnt really even acknowledge her, just said, Great Security and policing we have here in the arena. And squelched the free speech that he said that hes a proponent of. But he didnt call her out and say, lets do something mean to her. He had his best week of behavior in the entire campaign this week. But did it matter to the convention . I would argue it did not. The bar is pretty low. I would just say one thing. And well see if our predictions are right. Tim kaine, if he is the selection, he is someone very supportive of free trade. That is an issue that Bernie Sanders and, frankly, donald trump agree on against nafta, against free trade. And you want to unify the democrats, too, when theyre here this week. And the Bernie Sanders supporters and those on the left side of, if you will, the democrat equation, or more to the left, are certainly not in support of that. The democrats are gonna be pragmatic about it, though. Regardless of what anyone says, theyre gonna come together. Its not gonna matter at the end of the day. Theyre not voting for the Vice President. And there will be more people here at this convention, if nothing else, more elected officials who are democrats, unlike in cleveland, where a lot of elected officials and politicos, they did not want to have any part to that particular convention. Both bushes. Right. I mean, a lot of leading lights and a lot of leading thinkers on the republican side abdicated and said, were not dealing with this, unlike in philadelphia. Youre gonna have that brainpower. Youre gonna have a lot of different type of energy here in this city. In fact, bob brady, all of our congressman, senator casey, as well as the governor and the mayor of the city, theyre all gonna be speaking. Theyre listed on the speakers list. And so it does look like, at least on the face of it, theyre being unified. And when they took a little criticism last week from the f. O. P. , who said, we arent hearing from any of our Police Officers or their widows and families. Were only hearing from victims of policing action, then immediately, the clinton organizers did put a couple of people on that list, including someone who is a 9 11 survivor and, of course, our former police chief. So at least theyre responding and listening. Do you think in the end, its gonna be enough . Yes, i think the Democratic Convention will be as successful as it could be. I dont think look. This is august or july. Were so far away from that point when the country is paying attention for decisionmaking. The conventions are gonna be so far in the rearview mirror, they dont matter. Then why do they do them, sam . Why go to that expense . Is it just because its historical . Is it because it makes them feel special . Its a very expensive proposal. They used to nominate president s at conventions. Right. I know. [ laughter ] they handled business there. That was the reason for having them. Why bother . The primary process normally has produced in i dont know how long, but for the most part, maybe since 1976, the primaries have chosen the nominee. And the only then open question is the Vice President , who usually gets picked in order to create a story the week before the convention. So, this is a expand your base moment for the democrats. For hillary, it means bringing millennials and the sanders people into the tent. I think she will do that. She has the advantage as, i suppose, trump felt he did of making the main issue her opponent. And thats, i think, not gonna be a hard sell. I think, if anything, trump helped her in that regard. I think what weve heard from Bernie Sanders after the republican convention, it is hes more energized than ever to let people know that, no, my people are not going to join the Trump Campaign just on the free trade issue. And how big of a hit was it that even Ohios John Kasich didnt show up, didnt have a quote, not a taped piece, didnt do anything, unlike marco rubio and cruz, as we know, did some damage. But he was no part of it. Yeah, and kasich 2020, i mean, in the sense of if trump were to be beaten and be beaten badly, it provides not only for ted cruz, who certainly lost some of certainly the trump people with his remarks and his speech, but john kasich, others in the party jeb bush you know, they hold fire, and it bodes well for them. And perhaps the party goes through a realignment. Theyre holding out to make sure that perhaps we can rebuild this party. And theres other races. Just remember, you still have congress. You still have the u. S. Senate. And thats where a lot of people are putting their energy right now. And lets look at the latest odds. This is not a poll. This is a compilation of 16 polls, and its very interesting but could be a little bit disconcerting to some people. So, the latest 16 polls, when you put them all together and weigh them for many odds, clinton is at 61. 3 chance of winning just pennsylvania, by the way, and trump at 38. 6 in pennsylvania. When you look overall, each of the individual polls, theyre within a point or two, sometimes four or five, of each other for closer than that would indicate. But what do you make of this poll . Well, i dont think this is a poll. And as much as i admire nate silvers analytics, averaging polls is statistically irrelevant. But one of the things i wanted to say about kasich and it isnt gonna happen, but if Hillary Clinton selected john kasich to be her running mate. Oh, my goodness. I think the election would be over. Shed win slam dunk . I think the election is over. Really . And what are the odds of that . [ laughter ] i would think that someone of hillarys experience would think this is a good idea. But she would be surrounded by people who would kill it. Harold, what were you gonna say . I was just going to say, in terms of i actually lost my train of thought, because you were talking about something, and then he went into a different direction. We were talking about the odds here and how polls can be misleading or helpful. I was going to say that that was very misleading projection, and that the polls do show that its actually close in pennsylvania, that it could be very close, which is disconcerting for democrats. But the old cliche about pennsylvania not being pittsburgh and philadelphia is true. Right. And there is a lot of appeal to trump for the middle part of the state. I mean, were in the summer months. People really dont start paying true attention till about september, october. And the fact is, we may want to present this as, like, oh, well, hillarys just going to walk away with it. I dont necessarily think that its true, not among people who are interested in going out and voting. Its really gonna be a turnout election. I mean, surprisingly enough, youre gonna have high partisanship on both sides. But its those folks in the middle that just they havent really been engaged at all because they dont like this process. Lets be clear. In the southwest, there are many democrats. They are reagan democrats. They are voting for trump. The question is, there are a lot of republicans in our fivecounty area that are voting for hillary. Exactly. Its a turnout. So it is not necessarily a republicandemocrat alignment. Do those negate each other . Is that pretty even . And republicans have gained in Voter Registration in pennsylvania over the last year by a significant amount, actually. But still out. Oh, still outnumbered by democrats. If a turnout election, democrats do well. Its gonna be a turnout election. But trumps people have said david urban, who is from pennsylvania, whos helping run the Trump Organization or Trump Campaign and the convention, said pennsylvania, if not number one, is the numbertwo state that trump needs to win if hes gonna win the election. Hillary clinton has to jazz up her base. Shes got to get the jazz. Shes got to get the rara. Right now, people are more in the pragmatic sensibilities. And so its like, okay, ill go out. When you dont have that rara, there are people who will just miss the election altogether. Because they think their vote doesnt matter, or theyre just not even interested . Theyre not engaged, and they figure, well, you know, it doesnt matter one way or the other, whichever way i go. This is the poor suit for hillary. She is not a rara person. She does not have charisma, so, you know, youre right. She needs someone who can fire up that base for her. And her speech something that ill be watching very closely, because its important for her to show some intimacy, again, to show that humanness, that, i am not this caricature that the trump people are trying to portray me as. And if she can do that, great. That will give her a big bounce. If not, shell get some bounce, but it wont be as significant. As well as her Vice President ial pick. The last time a republican won pennsylvania i believe was 1988, George Herbert walker bush. And at that point, the republicandemocratic registration was much closer, and it was a very close election. It will be a very tall order, not impossible, but a very tall order for a republican to win pennsylvania. All right. We got to take a break. Inside story continues right after this. Stick around. This special edition of inside story is brought to you by temple university. Explore temples impact, temple. Edu impact. And buick, your philadelphia Super Network buick dealer. Im Hillary Clinton and i approved this message. Who do you talk to for military advice right now . Well, i watch the shows. I mean i really see a lot of great you know, when you watch your show and all of the other shows. While donald trump watched tv, as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton negotiated a cease fire in gaza. A reduction in nuclear weapons. Took on vladimir putin. And stood up against the trafficking of human beings. A steady leader in an unsteady world. Welcome back to inside story. Last week, pennsylvania got a budget through, so on wednesday, it was signed into law. No tax on cigars, by the way. Were one of the last two holdout states, florida and pennsylvania. 1. 8 million spent by the cigar lobbyists, 34 of them working pretty hard to make sure it didnt happen, and they were succ