Transcripts For WMPT The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer 20091106

>> woodruff: good evening. i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour this friday, two big stories: the massacre at the fort hood army base. >> this is a tough one. it is inside, it's a kick in the gut, no doubt about it. >> woodruff: kwame holman has the latest on the investigation. ray suarez reports on the alleged shooter's background. then, the jobless rate jumps above 10%. jeffrey brown has details. and paul solman looks at the life of the freelancer in tough economic times. also tonight, congress moves toward an historic vote on health care reform. betty ann bowser interviews house members. and margaret warner reports from kabul, where she's talked with afghans about their election and the debate in the u.s. over sending more troops. major funding for the newshour with jim lehrer is provided by: >> this is the engine that connects abundant grain from the american heartland to haran's best selling whole wheat, while keeping 60 billion pounds of carbon out of the atmosphere every year. bnsf, the engine that connects us. this is the power of human energy. and monsanto. grant thornton. and by toyota. and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodward: we begin with extended coverage of the two leading stories of the day: the massacre at fort hood, texas, and the nation's rising unemployment rate. first, fort hood: the casualties stood today at 13 dead, 30 wounded. all but two remained hospitalized, and doctors said some had "extremely serious injuries". newshour correspondent kwame holman begins our lead story report on the aftermath and the investigation. >> reporter: from the moment the gun fire faded, investigators have focused on the how and why. but so far, there've been no answers from the accused gunman, 39-year old army psychiatrist, major nidal malik hasan. initial reports said he'd been killed in the shooting yesterday, but it turned out he survived. >> colonel john rossi: "in the heat of the incident, it was a lot of confusion. there was approximately about 400 people at the scene between soldiers, civilians and first responders. obviously numerous wounded, some killed. >> reporter: today, hasan remained in a coma, still on a ventilator. while his motive remained a mystery, officials focused on reports hasan had been upset over an impending deployment to iraq or afghanistan. last night, authorities raided his apartment complex, looking for clues. they reportedly seized his computer. a neighbor said he had cleaned out the place in recent days, even giving away a copy of the koran. and surveillance video obtained by c.n.n. showed hasan early yesterday morning, dressed in traditional garb for arab men, at a local convenience store. >> attention. please shelter immediately. >> reporter: just 7 hours later, the army said, hasan opened fire at a soldier readiness center, where troops see doctors prior to going overseas. witnesses said he shouted "allahu akbar!", an arabic phrase for "god is great!" and he fired a handgun again and again. soldiers scrambled for cover and blocked the doors to an adjacent college graduation, keeping 600 other people out of harms way. >> "next thing you know it, someone stood up in uniform, and started to unload a weapon. he realized it was serious when we started seeing blood everywhere. >> reporter: once the shooting started, local police were on the scene in 3 minutes. officer kimberly munley, first on the scene, confronted the gunman and shot him four times. she was wounded in turn, and was listed in stable condition today. the attack struck at the heart of fort hood, the largest u.s. military base in the world and home to 50,000 military personnel and their families. general george casey, army chief of staff, flew to the base today, and praised the way the troops had responded. >> i talked to a young private, who was sitting in his pickup truck in the parking lot, who heard gunshots, went back after his buddies. >> reporter: but there was also fear, as many had to wait hours to hear from their loved ones inside the base. >> "and when i answered the phone i heard a little static in the background and i said jordan and he said 'yes ma'am', and it was like a weight was lifted off my shoulders." >> reporter: for some soldiers and their families at bases around the country and the world, the attack was a kind of betrayal. >> we're not fighting a war with each other, we're fighting a war over there. >> those people were coming home and getting ready to leave. they didn't expect to die today. >> reporter: among those killed, 12 were soldiers, and one was a civilian. at fort hood, and around the world, u.s. military men and women observed a moment of silence, exactly 24 hours after the attack, 1:34 p.m. central time. it was also an official day of mourning at fort hood, and the neighboring town of killeen, texas. there is also anger. rachael morris is a retired businesswomen. >> i am appalled and saddened and i think it's something that we dropped the ball by not investigating him further when he was talking to so many people about his feelings about the war. >> you think somebody dropped the ball? >> i sure do. >> reporter: for now, officials in washington focused on tributes to the fallen. at the white house this morning, president obama said the entire nation is grieving. >> so from now until veterans day, i've ordered the flags at the white house and other federal buildings to be flown at half-staff. this is a modest tribute to those who lost their lives even as many were preparing to risk their lives for their country. >> reporter: aides said the president will attend a memorial service at fort hood. in the meantime, the victims were remembered on the house floor today. >> our entire country mourns the losses of those who passed and were killed and are praying for them at this very, very sad time. >> reporter: and flags were lowered at the white house, capitol, and around washington, as well as in killeen and at fort hood. >> woodward: much more also emerged today on the accused gunman, major nidal malik hasan, a native of the washington, d.c., area. ray suarez reports on that part of the story. >> reporter: this mosque in silver spring, maryland, was hasan's spiritual home, in the region where he spent much of his young professional life. dr. asif qadir works at a medical clinic associated with the mosque. >> to me, he was very social; he would not go and offer and engage you. anyone talk him, nice about it... >> reporter: the muslim center is more than a thousand miles from yesterday's carnage, and the imam there found it hard to reconcile the man he knew with what he saw yesterday on television. >> there is no way. i'm shocked, i'm shocked. >> reporter: today, as the investigation in texas continued, a key question remained-- how this devout man, a psychiatrist responsible for counseling soldiers, could have committed such a crime. born in arlington, virginia, and raised by jordanian immigrant parents, nidal malik hasan enrolled in the army straight out of high school. the military sent him to college at virginia tech, then on to the uniformed services university in bethesda, maryland, to study psychiatry. dr. qadir. >> he was very grateful to the army that trained and educated him, and he was proud. >> reporter: for six years, he treated soldiers suffering from post traumatic stress disorder at walter reed army medical center. each year, service members cycle through walter reed with grave physical wounds and profound psychological ones. but professor stevan hobfoll, a specialist in stress disorders, says practitioners often deal with patients in crisis. >> there are hundreds of thousands of military psychiatrists, psychologists, social workers-- they're strong, tough, and empathic. they can take this. it's not that you're not saddened in your work. it means that you're strengthened by it because you know that you're helping out. >> reporter: during his years in bethesda, he lived a quiet life as a single man renting the basement of this house. his upstairs neighbor, who wouldn't come outside, said she hardly knew him, even though she lived one flight up. he became increasingly religious after the deaths of his parents, and disenchanted with the military, at one point telling relatives he was anxious to get out, according to his cousin, nader hasan. >> reporter: the muslim chaplain at fort hood told abc news that harassment toward muslim service members was not necessarily widespread at the base. >> time to time, we have a lot of counseling time and they'd complain about being taunted and harassed, some of it was mild joking, some misunderstanding, does create a real problem. >> reporter: still, at the council on american islamic relations, ibrahim hooper's blackberry has buzzed today with hostile messages, one calling for "all-out war on islam". >> unfortunately, there's a cottage industry of muslim- bashers who are exploiting it to further promote interfaith mistrust and hostily, and to create division within our society. and that's why we ask mainstream practitioners to not allow that to happen, remains unified in... for those who would exploit. happened in america, which makes it more troubling. that's why when we have some kind of incident like this happen, despite our attempt every day to enhance understanding of islam, end up being one step forward and two steps back for our commumity. just the facts we have to face in the post 9/11 era. >> reporter: today, american muslim groups roundly condemned the attack, the american arab anti-discrimination committee called him a "rogue" gunman. >> woodward: the other main story of the day was unemployment hitting double digits for the first time since 1983. the u.s. labor department announced the jobless rate rose to 10.2% in october, up four tenths. the economy lost another 190,000 jobs last month. at a congressional hearing, though, the head of the bureau of labor statistics said the rate of job losses is slowing. >> the last -- last three months the lost has been more mad rate than the prior three months are or the prior six months before that. last three months job losses average 188,000, that is significantly lower than the unprecedented period, six month period where we lost about 645,000 jobs per month. it's less widespread, the job loss. >> woodward: hall said it might take three years to get back to employment levels before the recession. and president obama said it underscored the need for extended unemployment benefits. he signed those into law today. on wall street, the reaction was subdued. the dow jones industrial average gained 17 points to close at 10,023. the nasdaq rose seven points to close at 2,112. for the week, both the dow and the nasdaq gained more than 3%. jeffrey brown takes a closer look at the jobs story. >> reporter: and joining for that is lakshman achuthan, an economist and managing director of the economic cycle research institute in new york city. you well, the expectation of getting 10% had been there. but what did today's report reveal about the depths of the problem. let's tart with the troubling news that's still out there? >> well, this was quite a shocking number. i mean at 10.2%. and i think a lot higher than anybody expected. and when we look at broader measures of unemployment that include discouraged workers or people who have left the workforce the numbers go even higher. they are 17, 17.5%. so on that score, very, very bad. but the direction, the fact that it is going up as you mentioned is not a surprise. that is something that happens always in the early stages of recovery. and this recovery is no different on that score. >> so the possible good news would be that the rate of loss continues to slow. >> well, that certainly. we're now, you know, below losing 200,000 a month and at the beginning of the year it was well over 600 it was around 700,000 a month. so that has as big of a psychological impact, as it were. on the positive side, as say crossing the 10% unemployment rate does on the negative side. and what i mean by that is that the people who have not lost their jobs, are a little less or even, you know, significantly less fearful of losing their jobs today than they were at the beginning of the year. and that is very helpful for the sustainability of the recovery. >> well, i do want to ask you about psychology. i mean crossing that 10%, going into double digits, how does that play out in terms of consumer confidence, of course for those who don't have jobs but expand a little bit on what you were starting to say about even for those who do, we are entering the shopping season, you know, the roll of the consumer in driving the economy. talk about this as a psychological factor. >> well, look, going above 10%, we knew it was going to happen. it is a negative. because it reminded us that we have just finished the greatest recession since world war ii. and that's not anything you want to really remember too closely. now for the power of these numbers, there's a lot of angst when the number occurs. and maybe in some sense it's kind of good that we got the waiting over with and now we are above 10%. the same kind of angst is going on, by the way, with another number ten. you know, the dow 10,000 where we've been popping back and forth across that threshold for thekf last see that we arelu staying above so far the 10,000 mark. so there is a kind of wall of worry that goes on in terms of the psychology of investors. and employers. in the early stages of recoveries where 9 human nature is to kind of extrapolate the recent bad trends. and so for the last, you know, almost two year its things have been pretty bad. and so your nature. the human nature is to extend that into the future. however when a business cycle is turning the trend is breaking. the cycle, the dynamic, the process of what is going on in the economy is shifting direction. and we're seeing that through objective data. objective leading indicators and other data like gdp which show the economy turning. >> one of the numbers that got some attention in today's report is the rise in temporary workers. now explain -- explain that, the importance of that. >> very important. you have employers are unsure of the durability of the recovery. they had to deal with an economy that grew by 3.5% by all measures in the third quarter. and they did that with 7 million or so less people working. so everybody who was remaining on the job had to be a great deal more productive in a way that is actually unsustainable. so business employers not wanting to take the plunge and commit to a new employee did as little as they could which is to hire a temporary employee. and that's why when you see temporary hiring rising, it's a leading indicator of permanent job growth down the line. however, i don't want to make too much of it too soon. there's a big deal between recovering, being in recovery which is where we are now and being recovered. i heard in the lead-in there was an estimate that we may be able to get the jobs that we lost in this recession back in three years. that's pretty optimistic. we would be having to have an economy much like the 1990 economy which was relatively strong. and even at that pace it would take about four years to get back the jobs that we've lost. >> well, i know everyone is trying to calculate when the jobs picture gets better. and we will continue to follow. thank you very much tonight. >> thank you. >> woodward: now, a second take on jobs, this one from our economics correspondent, paul solman, about the tough competition for work in the ever-growing freelance market. it's part of his ongoing reporting on "making sense of financial news." >> at a job fair in new york this summer where there were few real jobs to be had, two experts explained the great employment squeeze. sociologist -- >> a company can't afford to give someone a job for ten years and say that you can be part of our company for the rest of your life. because they don't know where they are going to be for six months or a year. >> so rather than commit to full-timers said professor capelli, companies are switching to just in time employees. >> it's really applying some of the principless of manufacturing and supply chains to the question of how you get the right number of worker -- workers. >> inventory management. >> some of this is it, it is inventory management. >> but the inventory are humans. >> and the inventory are people. >> a growing inventory that sarah horwitz has been organizing. into the freelancers union in brooklyn, new york. because in the global economy, the safety net of old is no more, for more and more americans. >> some people used to think freelancers, a offnism more being -- euphemism for people unemployed but it is really all of us, people that work in technology, in finance, in real estate, in domestic workers, graphic designers, artists, it across the whole economic spectrum and it is in fact a third of the workforce is now working like this. >> you can't be serious, a third of the workforce. >> yeah, according to the general accounting office a third of the workforce. and really what happens -- matters is what is happening to the human beings who are doing these jobs and how do we make it that they have a real and profound safety net. >> cecilia smith used to work full-time tickling the aluminums at the college of music at berkeleyment she gave up the security to perform and compose on her own. >> i never wanted to be anything else but a great musician. >> for artists freelancing has long been a way of life. made possible these days by the internet. self-promotion made easy. melina hammer runs her own metal working studio. >> i create wearable pieces, theatrical in nature. breast plates, head ress, gorgeous neck pieces, even sort of clothing sort of style pieces. >> hammer wears her originality on her sleeve and her reasons to freelance as well as within i need to claim something that feels like okay, this is me and i am able to feel proud of that. >> for writer stephanie schroder the appeal of freelancing may be even more obvious. >> i'm an anti- -- year woman how can i work in corporate america. >> i can't wear the suit. i can't wear the suit mi more, that is my answer. i can't wear the suit and i won't, you know. >> but these days even traditionalists see the upside of being free to yield their lances as they wish. pr consultant. >> i love to have, you know, medical benefits, insurance, dental, disability, all of that is wonderful. however many times i have actually given up terrific jobs with all those wonderful benefits simply because i wanted to, you know, change the environment, try different things. >> that's where the union comes in, providing health, dental, disability and life insurance for a modest price. a 401(k) retirement plan to smooth out the ups and downs of just in time work, advo cass'see to make the law more freelancer friendly. the unions organizing campaign has signed up 175,000 members to create a new deal for the new insecurity of work. >> freelancers are going through periods of time now where they have no money coming in and they are going 0 to 60 right on to welfare or food stamps because they can't get unemployment. they are paying so much for health insurance or then some states they can't even get it. retirement, a dream. >> and at this point in our group discussion, the happy face of freelancing started to sag. >> stage hand michael collins quit a job in the touring company of "sesame street" live to freelance, live from new york. >> the best thing about being a freelancer and also the worst thing about being a freelancer, you are always going it to have days off. you are always going to have days off. >> i hate having to have been extremely successful and then having to make so much less. i think psychologically that is what is hardest for people. i hate making less money. i can't stand it. >> and then there is the virtual assurance of constant rejection. >> when you are receiving no after, no after no after no, there is, for me at least, an incredible experience of questioning my path, questioning my worth, questioning, you know, what the [bleep] am i going to do to take care of the debt in front of me or the expense in front of me. i have thought about how close i am to that person who comes on to the subway performing. and asking for people's kindhearted generosity and giving money. >> moreover there is the heightened competition competition that can come from, well, the desperation of those out there these days. >> more cutthroat. >> it's definitely more cutthroat. you got 5,000 stage hands in new swrersee and new york and they are all fighting for the same position and the same ten guys are working all the time. >> we've been hearing in the news the recession is over so we're wondering whose recession is over. >> nancy hall person is an executive coach. >> now former colleagues don't want to necessarily share tips and client names and ideas because they are afraid. there's not as much business to go around. >> the newly laid off competition is driving down wages says internet consultant chris santini. >> they are undercutting everybody. they will go in and they will cut prices and one of my clients came back to me and said i'm dropping your rate 50% or i'm going with someone else. plus my clients don't paid. i am owed probably 75% of my billings that are all at least 90 days past due, some are are 300 days past due. >> i'm doing horribly. it's a bad scene. and i will just talk about the recession being over t is a depression and it's not over. i am on food stamps. i don't know where my next rent is going to come from. it's scary. >> how much do you make a year. >> less than 10,000. this is what the freelances -- this is what we are here talking about. is we need a safety net, it's ridiculous. >> a safety net. and so we end where we began, with sarah horoowitz who created the freelancers union to help those who have no choice but to help themselves. >> as we moved with technology to a more just in time kind of economy, companies and employers really wanted to shorter term work. but it's now up to freelancers to start saying in this democracy, what do we need if work is going to be so fluid. >> what do they need? what do they deserve? what are they likely to get. >> woodward: paul has more about how freelancers are faring in the recession on his business page at newshour.pbs.org. and still to come on the newshour tonight: views from kabul; and shields and brooks. that follows our preview of a big weekend, and potential vote, over health reform on capitol hill. betty ann bowser of our health unit has the story. the unit is a partnership with the robert wood johnson foundation. >> on the eve of bringing a health-care reform bill to the floor, the house rules committee met today to set the framework for debate. the panel's top republican david dryer of california. >> the american people have set a very clear and strong message. they believe that we should take time to look at legislation. >> new jersey democrat frank palone. >> you can say bhaefer you want but i mean i don't want anybody to suggest that there hasn't been months and years of hearings on this and every aspect of this bill. >> the process is less a concern for democrats than whether they actually have the votes to pass the bill. yesterday house speaker nancy pelosi predicted she would be victorious. >> -- for the rule on the bill. >> we are -- we will. we will. >> reporter: today majority leader steny huher said democrats were very close to securing the votes needed to pass the bill. the vote which had been set for saturday could now slip into sunday or later. many democrats are still on the fence. jason atmeyer a blue dog democrat from western pennsylvania is one of them. >> i'm still thinking it through, talking to my constituents as we speak today. i have several meetings with constituents, both from the right, the tea party activists and from the left, the health care for america now group and i'm on the phone all day long talking to people back home, reading the bill. and i'm going to make my decision sgfer the vote. >> his uncertainty is shared by many fellow democrats. throughout the day some of them were jockeying for stronger language that would prevent illegal imgrants from buying health insurance. others who oppose abortion were insisting on a provision that no federal money be spent on insurance policies that covered the procedure. >> i'm pro-life and i don't think that federal money should be spent on abortions. and certainly the stronger they make that language the better i'm going to feel about the bill. i think they've made an attempt to accommodate that point of view and we'll see what the final language looks like. on the immigration side, i feel very strongly that not one penny of federal money should be used to fund illegal immigrants directly or indirectly to have access into our health-care system. so on that i want to see some very strong language. >> reporter: while those issues were still being worked out, the main principless of the democrat's bill are set. it would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion over the next decade, but would reduce the deficit as well. it would cover an additional 36 million americans and include the creation of an insurance exchange to purchase coverage. it would also forbid insurance companies from denying coverage to people with preexisting conditions. and would require nearly every american to buy insurance. most employers would be required to provide coverage as well. speaker pelosi is also made sure she has secured enough support from some of the more liberal members of her caucus who raised doubts of their own hast week. >> and the answer is i'm leaning no right now, absolutely. >> arizona raul grihalve is co-chairman of the progressive caucus and a fierce advocate of a robust public option. despite his believe that the current democratic house bill does not have a strong enough public insurance plan to hold down costs, he says he does not want to block a pivotal vote for reform. >> resign to fight another day. i means that's my mood. i mean i'm not going to stand in the way. i'm not going to be the skunk at the garden party and stop this from moving forward. but there is a level of resignation. okay, we took it as far as we could. we brought the public option back from the dead. we should be happy with that. but the satisfaction level that we were seeking is not there. >> reporter: meanwhile republicans are providesed to vote universally against the democratic bill. >> we believe republican opposition to the pelosi health-care bill will be overwhelming. >> . >> reporter: indiana mike pence says the democratic proposal is a misguided approach to solving the country's health-care problems. >> the democratic majority has developed legislation, it's their every right to do it. but their goal is to achieve what they refer to as universal coverage and they do that through a massive knew bureaucracy of government-run insurance mandates and taxes. the republican plan takes a different approach. how do we bring about reforms that a lower cost both for health insurance and health care. >> the republican alternative put forward earlier this week would cost $61 billion over the same length of time. and lower premiums for some who buy insurance on their own. but it would cover only 3 million more americans. insurance companies could continue to deny coverage based on preexisting conditions. and there is no mandate for individuals to buy insurance. >> the two plans have sharply divided support in congress and throughout the country. yesterday an estimated 10,000 people joined republican lawmakers outside the capitol to pro test -- protest the democratic health-care bill. >> afterwards many of the rally attendees carried their protests to house office buildings looking to send their message directly to their representatives. >> democratic house members are expected to receive another visit tomorrow. from president obama. who will attempt to rally last minute support. for arizona grihalve, he wishs the president had stepped in sooner. >> it could be helpful with some members. but you know, that engagement is overdue, with all due respect to the president, to the office. when we were at 209 and a robust public option, could have used his help. we're glad, heartened that he is here to talk to members and push this forward. belated but necessary presence. any time the president throws his weight behind something it's important. >> reporter: but just how important. that won't be known until the votes are counted >> woodward: next, the afghanistan story. two more american soldiers died there today. and on the political front, now that he is assured of another term as president, hamid karzai is coming under increasing western pressure to clean up government corruption. the latest warning came from british prime minister gordon brown. britain has 9,000 troops there and has lost more than 200 soldiers. >> suddenly the government of afghanistan had become a buy word for core ruping. and i'm not prepared to put the lives of british men and women in harm away for a government that does not stand up against corruption. so president karzai agree with me yesterdaypç that the first priority of his new government would be to take decisive action against corruption. >> woodward: now, margaret warner wraps up her reporting trip to afghanistan, talking to afghans themselves about corruption and their country's future. >> reporter: in the middle of kabul, in an historic islamic quarter destroyed by decades of war and neglect, local workers are restoring murad khane's centuries-old beauty. they're part of a project sponsored by the turquoise mountain foundation, an international ngo, to help afghans relearn traditional building methods and crafts for 21-year-old yasser, politics is far from mind. he was afraid to vote in the presidential election. now, what he wants from karzai now is peace. >> ( translated ): its good that he become president. he become president, we should have peace. we have to have jobs, and peace, to help poor people. >> reporter: khalilullah, a community adviser for the turquoise mountain project, is expecting a lot more. >> ( translated ): there will be lots of changes. >> reporter: these are just two of the voices we heard this week, about how afghans feel now that the long-disputed election is resolved they all said more of the same won't do, especially when it comes to the corruption that plagues their daily lives. >> you have to understand that, in parts of the country, the government is synonymous with the crime. >> reporter: saad mohseni's radio and tv stations, including number-one tolo tv, hear from afghans from all over the country. >> the police officers steal, the judges take bribes, government officials-- it's about nepotism, it's about corruption. so one of the reasons people have resorted to relying on taliban-type forces is because there's a vacuum, because they cannot deliver on the basics. >> reporter: but we heard doubt about whether karzai will address the issue, despite the desperate need. 26-year-old abdul waha qadeerzada is a pottery student who works like a master. >> ( translated ): if he doesn't bring changes into the government, doesn't end the corruption, how will this government survive? >> reporter: his ceramics teacher, abdul manan, believes only the united states and its allies can make karzai deliver. >> ( translated ): i am requesting from the international community to put pressure on him, to bring changes. the people are tired of his past five years-- corruption, fighting, people are tired of this. >> president karzai has always acted as a tribal chieftain, a traditional leader who wants to build... >> reporter: haroun mir, who runs a think tank in kabul, says karzai's style makes him ill- suited to satisfy today's demands from afghans or the international community. >> this is probably the weakness of president karzai that he wants to satisfy everybody instead of looking for results. i don't think president karzai would bring any change on his own. i think the international community will be forced to bring constantly pressure. >> reporter: but hekmat karzai, a distant cousin who informally advises president karzai, says he expects the afghan president to mend his ways. >> within the first three to six months, we will know how committed and how serious he is in terms of dealing with these issues. >> do you have doubts? >> absolutely not. we are almost at a turning point. and afghan government needs to prove that it's a credible partner. i think he can come to the occasion and provide the necessary capabilities, the necessary skills that are needed. >> reporter: but to do that, says shokria barakzai, a member of parliament from kabul, karzai will have to get rid of the corrupt ministers and palace mafia that surround him. do you think he has it in him? >> he should, he must, he has to. otherwise, there be no good future for afghans. otherwise, there be no step forward. otherwise, there be no success at all. he has to take serious those serious issues. >> reporter: this debate over whether president karzai has the will to deliver on reform comes at a crucial time, as afghans and americans await president obama's decision on u.s. troops. many ordinary afghans told us they fear that, unless he does, the taliban will continue gaining momentum, triggering chaos and perhaps even another civil war. >> ( translated ): if they are not here, i will fight with my brother; he will fight with his brother. >> reporter: to address that insecurity, says media mogul mohseni, the country needs more u.s. forces to protect the major cities, roadways and trading areas. >> once you're protecting 50%, 60% of the population and you're allowed to trade between our major cities, as well as the outside world, that's going to stabilize the situation. is it the best strategy? you know, we don't know, but in terms of what's on the table right now, it's probably the one that makes the most sense. >> reporter: but late in the day in this bustling downtown area, ordinary afghans aren't so sure. >> ( translated ): someone should explain to the americans that afghanistan can't be solved by planes, by tanks, by bullets. they did also the same thing in iraq. what's the result? nothing. >> reporter: even more typical was the ambivalence of university student hasib naseri. >> it's a good thing because local afghan forces are not developed enough to keep security in provinces, districts and mountains. but in afghanistan, peace can't come by fighting, by force, by weapons. even if troops are 10 times more than now, they cant bring peace. >> reporter: and after 30 years of war, what unites afghans of every stripe, above all, is that yearning for peace. >> woodward: and to the analysis of shields and brooks-- syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks. >> woodruff: gentlemen, good to see you both. let's start with the bad news, mark, unemployment 10 boy 2%. what are the implications for the president, for everybody else in washington. >> well, judy, i think first of all it's still a shock even though it was expected. it's a shock. and there is something absolutely staggering to one's attention about 10% unemployment in this country. 26 years since we've had it before. and there's not the sense that we had in 1983 that the country is going to rebound quickly. we had 9.5% increase in productivity last quarter. and what has it lead to? it has lead to the stock market going up to 10,000. that's great news. and profits going up. but jobs going down and 192,000 lost this month. i just think it shows the disconnect between wall street and main street in this country, what people are going through. and i think politically it's -- absolute warning and wake-up call to the democrats that if you are looking at 10% unemployment, next october you are looking at the threat of the republicans winning the congress. >> woodruff: a wake-up call in. >> yeah, i mean it's a combination of a bunch of things. first a long-term period of unemployment. now are you beginning to hear. we have heard economists talk for a long time about this will last through 2010. now all of a sudden beginning the year 2011. and that is because what we are recovering from this long pile of debt and now we are living with the 7 slim years that come after that pileup of debt. so you have the long period of unemployment which people expect to linger for a long time. the second point you've got no faith in institutions. so it's not like people believe that this can solve it or that can solve it. and then if you ask people well should the government get more active to try to, another stimulus packet, something like that else, twice as many people say no as yes because they are afraid we already have too much public deficit so what we have got is this long-term problem, no faith in institutions and then no easy way out. which i think could lead over the next year or two to an even bigger increase and sort of economic populism we are already seeing. >> so if you are president obama, what do you do? >> you pass health care. >> woodruff: you pass health care, you get it through and then you devote all your time, effort and energy. i agree with david the numbers on the deficit are sobering. and they are certainly cautionary. but we're talking about is jobs. an before we went to war in the persian gulf in 1991, jim baker, secretary of state asked what is at war. he said jobs jobs, jobs, jobs. this is about jobs, jobs, jobs. that is where all the attention, energy and effort has to be. it has to be creative. i think if it means further deficit, so be it. they've got to stimulate the economy. you've got wary consumers and you've got banks that are profitable, that are reluctant to make loans and companies that are profitable. >> woodruff: but you have 50 million jobs that are gone. can a government re-create those. >> to some extent. if things didn't work, they have given money to states to keep teachers employed. that stuff works. what doesn't seem to have worked is the idea of pumping money into the economy and creating this vast multiplier where business takes off. business has not taken off because the chroj is still there. everybody is hunkered down because they think there is still a lot of debt out there. so to me if i'm in the government i think we can't add more fizzed to economy with more debt. but we, what we do have to do is focus on the long-term job creation and that's energy and other things. because one thing we learned about this economic cycle and increasingly recent economic cycles it not like you get laid off and retired at the same job. that doesn't happen as much any more. you have to look for a whole new sector and job. to me if i'm the obama administration i'm not just thinking i'm going to stimulate the economy with short term fizz, i will solve fundamental problems to help create new industries for new jobs. >> you will be the obama administration which is the clinton administration which is your second half the first term, a republican congress. i mean that is the risk you are running. you cannot -- you cannot go into the next election at 10% unemployment. i mean whatever it takes you have to do. and it means being creative. it means being imaginativement but i agree with david, it's great in the long run. >> forget the deficit. >> in the short run you have to get people back to work. >> we just had an election on this subject. and the fear of government, the fear of spending is massive. and again this gallop poll, they asked people would you rather have the government spend money to employ people at the cost of running up the debt or have them not spend money even if the recession last longer. 2-1, 62%, don't spend the money, worry about the deficit. 31%, spend the money. the public is pretty clear on this. >> that is the message. >> the message -- you can take any message you want from the election. i mean jon corzine in new jersey. >> woodruff: the two governors race. >> in new jersey and virginia -- new jersey. corzine embraced oa, he lost. in virginia, he distanced himself from barack obama and he lost. so you can take any interpretation you want. the analysis of this election is the mood of the country. it has not changed. the 2009 election was like the 2006 election like the 2008 election. and that is people are so disgusted and disenchanted and really angry about a government they feel that doesn't listen to them, that is controlled by special interests, and they think washington stinks and couple with that the book end of that is a hot tillity toward, -- hostility toward, the game is rigged in favor of wall street. and so you've got those twin hostilities fueling it. the ins rules. the outs win. if i were an inn going in 2010 in this kind of mood and climate i would be scared stiff. >> but 12 months ago barack obama came in, people turned out. he won a convincing margin over the republican john mccain. what has happened to all that? >> well, i guess this not totally in distinction to what mark said but to take two populations, first on the left young people and minoritys who came out to vote, a lot of those people are disenchanted because they think he's not moving fast enough on a whole range of issues. so a lot of them stayed home. second, among the independents who are concentrated in the suburbs, they switched to republicans because they think he's moving too fast. an they're nervous by the spending, by the activism. so you saw not only the suburban votes in virginia and new jersey but also in new york and westchester county, in nassau county, in pennsylvania, a lot of these suburbanites, the democrats had done phenomenally well at suddenly shifting to the republican side. and that is accompanied by poll data suggesting that they think the government is getting too big, too active, intruding in government. there has been a short of a reaction to the right among a lot of those voters. so there have been two populations with opposing criticisms of the democrats and how the democrats have been reconciled those two populations is a huge challenge. >> i dissent. first of all we had two tax-cutting referenda question on the ballot. one in maine, one in the state of washton. they both were defeated. there was this tide out there. the independent -- it would have reflected itself there. the independents have become more republican because they have left the republican party. the republican party is at its lowest part in the history of "the wall street journal". >> woodruff: you mean in the last year. >> in the last year. and david say says well, what about people's attitude, you know, too much government regulation, you know, when they asked the question before, in 2008 there wasn't any government regulation that is how we got to where we are today. there literally was not any government regulation. i still come back to this. people can ask they are philosophically conservative. too much government, red tape, getting out of my pocket, out of my hair but when told there was a trace of botulism in tuna fish they want to know where the hell is the federal government. people want results and they feel the federal government is not on their side. ask youed about barack obama. he was elected a year ago. change we can believe in. it would change the way washington worked. change washington and get things done. and i think it's fair to say that it's not a question of too many things he's tried to do. that there just aren't the results. you don't have to criticize him but the change has not occurred. the promised change has not developed. that's why health care is urgent and imperative. >> woodruff: is that because he promised too much? is that because the public senses that there were too many promises out there that haven't been delivered on? >> it sort of a perfect storm. he did promise too much. second i think people have unrealistic expectations about what can be done in this system. and so i think some of the reaction is unfair to him to be honest. i mean he's probably about to pass a major health-care reform. the idea that a president can shape a business cycle which has been building up, this debt has been building up for decades, it's just not realistic to expect that. and so you know, they can throw him out, fine. they can throw democrats out, fine. and it happens. but i think the thing can do and the thing the republicans should be trying to do is saying government can do this but it can't do that. we're going to reassure you. we're going have a sense of order. this is what we are going to try to do. but we're to the going to get too busy an scare people which is what has happened. i don't think either party has really laid out the8 fundamentals and returned to those fundamentals. >> but you think they will get health-care reform. we have the house voting this weekend or maybe it will slip into next week. >> i would be stunned if they didn't get the house but i think even overall they will get everything. >> woodruff: what is your vote. >> they don't have the votes right now on the democratic side on the house. republicans have announced every one of them is going to be a matter of pride, unanimity to vote against it and the republican health bill has been introduced. it turns out to be take two tax breaks and call your doctor in the morning. i mean it just, it is silly. it's -- but what really is most remarkable is in this climate of all the problems that president obama is confronting and some dealing with, some not, is that the republicans haven't been able to take advantage of it. the republicans are still so far. here we are, judy, with h1n1 scare in the country, an emergency. and women who are pregnant are having trouble getting the vaccine. children are having trouble getting the vaccine, get in the community health centres. we find out this week that goldman sachs, that citigroup, and jpmorgan had their private reserves. what a convergence of the republicans to go after the administration to go after wall street, to grab that pot and stick. have you heard a single republican speak. >> i will give them your number, though. >> woodruff: they may be listening. but they did win the governor's races. they didn't win the congressional district in new york but a good week for the republicans. >> they are very happy and the congressional race in new york was important because there were a lot of more conservative tea party types who were thinking of primary challenges to sitting republicans. that may happen but less of an impulse. >> it was a good week, any time you win t helps psychologically more than anything else. it helps you recruit candidates the next time with republicans, helps you raise money t lifts the moral of the party that has moral problems. >> woodruff: it lifts our moral to have both of you here, mark shields, david brooks, thank you both. other stories making headlines today: a gunman killed one person and wounded five at an engineering firm in orlando, florida. police arrested jason rodriguez, who'd been laid off there. in honduras, ousted president manuel zelaya claimed the agreement to end a four-month political crisis has collapsed. his rival, roberto micheletti, insisted the deal was alive and well. and the new york yankees celebrated victory in the world series with a ticker-tape parade through manhattan. and again, the top stories of the day: investigators searched for a motive in the fort hood shootings, with 13 dead and 30 wounded. and the u.s. unemployment rate topped 10% in october for the first time since 1983. on newshour.pbs.org, two online- only features tonight: we mark the 20th anniversary of the fall of the berlin wall with a podcast with former newshour anchor robert macneil. and you can watch a roundtable conversation from november 1989. plus, we have an "art beat" conversation with jonathan lethem about his new novel, "chronic city," which mixes the real and the surreal in present- day new york. here's an excerpt. >> i think for me life is a strange mixture of the dream and the real. and you know we're sort of real human beings condemned to live in a cartoonish universe. so i'm trying to get that feeling on to the page. >> woodward: "washington week" can be seen later this evening on most pbs stations. we'll see you online, and again here monday evening. have a nice weekend. i'm judy woodruff. thank you and good night. major funding for the newshour with jim lehrer is provided by: >> what the world needs now is energy. the energy to get the economy humming again. the energy to tackle challenges like climate change. what if that energy came from an energy company? every day, chevron invests $62 million in people, in ideas-- seeking, teaching, building. fueling growth around the world to move us all ahead. this is the power of human energy. chevron. intel. supporting coverage of innovation and the economy. bnsf railway. monsanto. and by toyota. grant thornton. >> and by the bill and melinda gates foundation. dedicated to the idea that all people deserve the chance to live a healthy, productive life. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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