Quietly enjoys some special political pull. And she said, well, who are you married to . And i said, the governor. She says, what governor . I said, the governor of maine. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] . Sharyl welcome to full measure. Im sharyl attkisson. Prepare yourself. These last weeks of the campaign will feature a rush of polls, each attempting to handicap the horse race and predict the presidency. More than ever before, companies, campaigns, and news outlets are seeking your opinion. There are landline polls, cellphone polls, internet polls, and push polls. In this recent average by real clear politics combines several polls, indicating Hillary Clinton is taking a slight lead the margin of error puts them pretty close. But as much as americans love to hear the latest predictions, we inherently question them. Today, we ask how honest and accurate the numbers are as we dig into the weird science of polling. You say its not a shakeup , but you guys are down and it makes sense. Says who . Polls. Says who . Most of them. All of them . Sharyl sparring over election polls is an american pastime. Says who . Polls. I just told you. I answered your question. Ok. Sharyl are we being fooled by polls . John johnson there are people that are trying to purposefully mislead us, then there are times where people just dont know better when they read part of the story. Sharyl john johnson has a phd in data from mit. You could say hes an authority on the weird science of polling. And he says theres good reason to be skeptical. Sharyl so someone like you, when you read it reported in the media that a poll says x is ahead by x points. Whats the john i question it. [laughter] john i look to see what the sample size was, how many people . I look to see who they questioned and i look to see if we actually if theres a track record for that poll. Those are the three things i think about first. Sharyl tell us about the polls that intentionally mislead. How do they do that and what is their aim . John the broad category of polls are called push polls and so what a push poll is literally where youre masquerading as a pollster from an independent organization, but you actually represent a party or political interest and youre going to shape questions that are meant to influence the results. . John there was allegations of push polling in nevada, where, right before the primary, calls to Bernie Sanders supporters sort of framed in terms of, well, do you realize that Bernie Sanders doesnt actually support obamacare, or this or these kind of hot button issues, and then asking so now, would you still support hillary Hillary Clinton says Bernie Sanders is making big Campaign Promises that will cost up to 20 trillion and as the Washington Post says, realistically, his plans are dead on arrival in congress. John now, both parties are equally guilty and theres allegations of this, but thats what a push poll is. So thats just unethical. Sharyl sanders accused clinton of being behind the nevada phone campaign, but her defenders denied it met the true definition of a push poll. Another nonscientific poll thats popular is the online instant poll that lets anyone donald trump cited his victories in a number of those polls following his first debate with Hillary Clinton. When we see what we think are the Reputable National polls, you say there are issues with those too . John yeah, there definitely can be. So first, i always think about are they asking questions in a way that might be misleading or might be shaping the debate . Sharyl what are some examples . John and so for example, if you have a very long and complicated setup question, you know, for Vladimir Putin dot, dot, dot. And then you ask a question about Foreign Policy and trump, youre kinda guiding it. Or, Hillary Clintons email scandal continues to probe her or to haunt her. How do you think about that . Either of those type of things could guide the answer. The latest nbc News Survey Monkey online poll shows Hillary Clinton improving her lead on donald trump nationwide. She now leads 50 45 . Shes up 5 points. Sharyl i looked at a poll recently that had Hillary Clinton up by a couple of points, but when i looked at the sample, they interviewed 50 more democrats, so suddenly, it didnt look all that positive for her to have interviewed 50 more democrats and she really wasnt winning by very much. John at the end of the day, every poll you see has some underlying model of turnout, and when you described, well, clintons up by six, but theres a lot more democrats in that poll, or you might see a different poll where trumps up by one, but theres a lot more republicans in that poll or theyre weighted more, thats sharyl for people who think that maybe a pollster gathers a hundred opinions and randomly publishes the results, theres a lot more to it. John it is not the case that we simply go and pick a hundred people at random and they all answer the question and we tell you, oh, out of the 100, 50 voted this way, 45 voted this way, 5 voted this way, 5 are undecided. Sharyl historically, is there a poll or an average thats been right more often than the others . John well, 538 has sort of credit for sort of being the one thats called most of the states correctly. A cnn poll showed that People Trust Trump more on terrorism, but that they trust clinton more on Foreign Policy. John but 538 does something completely different. Again, theyre an aggregator, theyre not a pollster. So, they take all the polls and, based on those statistical precision, makes some predictions. People whose top issue is terrorism tend to prefer trump. John reality is you and i could sit here and go through the 50 states, and we probably together, not knowing a lot, could tell you how 40 of the 50 are gonna work out, right . At the end of the day, the election is going to hinge at so, then its, are there certain polls within those states that are particularly useful . Monmouth has a very good reputation, for example, thats one. Now theres this advent of a lot more internet polling reuters ipsos, yougov, the economist are doing some more Daily Internet polls. So theres different choices at least, and i always say, lets look at it as totality, but at the end of the day, im telling you its a handful of states where its gonna matter ohio, pennsylvania, florida. Those are the first polls i look at. The leave vote leading the remain vote in the u. K. We are getting a brexit and Financial Markets around the globe are in panic mode. Sharyl do any polling disasters stick out in your mind in recent times . John brexit is a great example because that was really driven in part by difference between internet results and phone results and averaging polls together. The total number of votes cast in favor of leave was 82,000. Line . John they werent representative enough of what the voters were thinking and also, they were too confident that people wouldnt change their mind because a lot of people made a decision at the last minute. Nigel farage dawn is breaking on an independent united kingdom. The u. K. Has voted to leave the european union. John the great example, and this is not recent, is always truman, but that was sort of a situation where they stopped polling three weeks before the and that showed truman did sort of a bunch of whistle stop tours and really built up support. Sharyl are there any best polls and worst polls or organizations that have proven their accuracy or lack thereof over time . John abc news Washington Post has done well historically, although this year there has been sort of a democratic lean to those. Usually, the ones that do poorly dont survive. There are, as i said, some notable examples of pollsters that have been a little bit dishonest and usually get out of the way. There was one story i had read about 30 of Republican Voters are in favor of bombing agrabah. From aladdin. Public policy polling found 30 of 532 people who identified as republican would bomb agrabah and only 13 say nope, lets not bomb the cartoon city. Sharyl a comment on the l. A. Times polling unique way where theyre conducting the by interviewing the same people. What are they doing thats different and what does that tell you . John they literally take a same set of people, its called a panel, the exact same people and they interview them every day to try to measure the trends. Whos changing, whos changing their mind or not . The issue has been in part when they started, their poll sample, that integral group skewed a little bit more towards trump. So, frequently, well once youve said that youre gonna interview the same people, thats going to be inherent in every single poll. The day that that poll came out that clinton was ahead, i said, wow, thats a really Interesting Data point, because theres a group that has been predetermined sort of seems to be skewing republican, now its sort of shifted back with the tightening of the race again and now trump tends to be up. The National Polls are relatively meaningless without that extra data . John its an inherently complicated thing were trying to do. The ultimate poll is the election. So, ive got a hundred people im gonna survey, ive got a thousand people, its actually remarkable that statistics can even get it close. But as a result, thats a pretty hard problem to solve. Youve gotta treat it as what it is, its a pretty nuanced problem. Think hard about the polls. Sharyl gallup, one of the nations most respected polling organization for decades, isnt polling the president ial race this year. Its final 2012 poll had mitt romney beating Barrack Obama by one point and gallup promised to fix what went wrong. Instead, gallup decided to drop president ial polling for the First Time Since its founding in 1935. Still ahead on full measure its a tough transition from the battlefield to the workplace. Lisa fletcher takes a look at some business sectors that are sharyl the u. S. Military spends up to 70,000 to put each soldier through basic training. For special operations, our military elite, their training runs into hundreds of thousands of dollars. When that soldier or seal leaves duty, its a walkaway investment, lost money for uncle sam. But some sectors, like wall street and silicon valley, are finding that combat skills, honed on the battlefield, may be a perfect fit for their hard knocks world. Lisa fletcher found a west Coast Company thats helping bring don faul we learn leadership under some of the most trying conditions. Theres just not that many places in the world where as a 21 or 22yearold you have the opportunity to lead a big team under incredibly stressful and trying circumstances. Lisa don fauls leadership was forged on the battlefields of americas post9 11 wars. A marine infantry officer, he was part of the first troops in afghanistan in early 2002. Faul then served two tours in iraq as a platoon commander, but returned home to find that the gratitude of a nation didnt translate to a job offer. I would think people would be knocking down your door . Don i found really universally that there was this deep respect for what i had done, but i think for the average hiring manager or recruiter, they just didnt think that the skills translated. Kymberly penson the transition can be daunting in that, as you leave the military, you dont have those Robust Networks in place. Lisa a former Army Intelligence officer, kymberly penson had also deployed to iraq, where she like faul, penson excelled at war, but entered the job market a soldier in a strange new world. Bethany coates the veterans and military community is only about 1 of our population now. Its really uncommon actually for recruiters and hiring managers to have a good understanding of what veterans are bringing to the table. Lisa Bethany Coates is a former assistant dean at Stanford Universitys business school. She founded breakline in 2015 to tech table. Bethany intellect, leadership, problem solving ability, grit, collaboration. Those are strengths that veterans bring in spades. Theres so much talent there and theres so much need in industry. I wanted to help it, build a bridge. Lisa through onemonthlong embed programs, breakline helps veterans translate their skill sets to employers and introduces silicon valleys top we were with don faul. We were with kymberly penson. And they are such incredibly talented and confident individuals, but both of them told us they were nervous. They didnt necessarily believe in themselves at the beginning, which, looking at them now, is a little hard to imagine. Is that fairly common . Bethany that is really common and i think its actually to be expected. But i think that the Silver Lining there is that they can move past this moment of vulnerability and sort of return to that place of competence and performance that has served them so well in the military. Don all of the hardware innovation and design for the apparel happens here. Lisa and don faul is a perfect example. After grad school and a lucky break by a navy man who got him a summer internship at google 11 years ago, today, faul is the chief operating officer of company. We are measuring three muscles within the lower body. Lisa making clothes that help people maximize their workouts. One of fauls early hires was gabriel rangel, a fellow marine who also struggled with his job search. Gabriel you are kind of intimidated because i came from the enlisted side of the world, where i had no college background, i had nothing coming out. Lisa its such a contrast to hear the word intimidating and marine in the same sentence. Kitchen, im going to be very intimidated, its a very scary thing, its a super scary thing. Thats why you unfortunately hear about a lot of veterans having to struggle and a tough time, but its a network and a brotherhood. You gotta pick somebody up, thats why you have a guy like don, whos had so much success in the tech world, he picks a guy like me up and carries me along. Lisa as for kymberly penson, after going through breaklines embedded program, she landed a job at box, a Cloud Storage company. She is one of a handful of kymberly to be able to leverage an opportunity and program like breakline was pivotal because it absolutely granted me access into this new world that id never been exposed to before. Specifically, it got me in touch with the right people at Different Companies to pursue my transition and my future career. Lisa is there something about tech that makes vets uniquely qualified to be in that field . Bethany oh definitely, so tech as an industry is dynamic, its fastpaced, its intense , its competitive. There are a lot of situations that are ambiguous and require inventive thinking. I mean, these are people who were making life or death decisions on very tight timelines and they had to do it with integrity. And so there is literally nothing that the industry could throw at them that would be difficult for them to handle. They are uniquely capable of are there other companies and industries that are especially good at hiring vets . Lisa a group called the Veterans Jobs Mission started five years ago. 11 leading u. S. Companies with the goal to hire 100,000 vets by 2020. There are now 200 30 Companies Involved like cisco, jpmorgan, starbucks, verizon. They have upped their goal to one million veterans by 2020. Sharyl thanks, lisa. Next on full measure vets arent the only ones looking for jobs. This is ned. The family dog. And your current security system. Protecting your home from a breakin is a bit much for ned. [ snores ] everything is a bit much for ned. For live twoway voice and 24 7 security that alerts the authorities, sharyl on our recent trip to maine to look at the states welfare reform efforts, we heard a rumor that the governors wife was waiting tables at a local seafood restaurant. So we went to see how the first lady is serving maine. Ann lepage hey folks, how you doing over here . Waterfront in boothbay harbor, maine. Tourists and locals flock here for some of maines famous seafood lobster, haddock, scallops. Ann how about carrot sticks . Sharyl most dont know it, but theres one member of the wait staff who quietly enjoys some special political pull. Ann two tv stations had me hooked up and i was going around and they were following me around. And one of the gals that i work with said, why are they here . And basically, it was the same thing i said to that table. I said, its because of who im and she said, well, who are you married to . And i said, the governor. She says, what governor . I said, the governor of maine sharyl but the governors wife, ann lepage, isnt working just for the fun of it. Are you saving for a car . Ann im saving for a car, yeah. Sharyl oh, what kind of car . Ann i want a rav4. Toyota rav4. Sharyl besides saving for her dream ride, lepage says waitressing is connecting her to her neighbors. Do you think you get bigger tips because of this or smaller tips . On and told me to put it towards my car fund. I had a little lady from california send me a check for my car fund and i sent her a nice little note back and thanked her. But i said, i couldnt possibly accept your check. Sharyl the extra Family Income doesnt hurt. As it happens, maines governor lepage earns the lowest salary of any governor in the 50 states 70,000 a year. Next lowest is arkansas, which pays Governor Asa Hutchinson just under 87,000. On the other side of the earning spectrum, pennsylvanias Governor Tom Wolf pulls in the most, just under 188,000. Governor bill haslam of tennessee makes nearly 182,000. But hes the wealthiest elected official in the country, worth 2 billion from his time as a Business Executive and turns down his whole public salary. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo earns 179,000 a year. So what does the governor with the smallest paycheck in the table . Gov. Lepage she said, i have an opportunity to go to work at the restaurant, id like to go. And we have a home there, so she could stay right at home. And i said, you know how thats gonna look . I am gonna get crucified. So, let me say how this turned out. Teddy roosevelt said about his daughter, i could be president of the United States and run the country or i can control my daughter, but i cant do both. And the same goes for my wife. I love her dearly, but i cant tell her what to do. Sharyl dont expect lepage her lepage to stop waiting tables anytime soon. Ann so i told my husband, this year, its a car. Next year, its a boat. Gov. Lepage shes a pistol. Shes absolutely wonderful. Sharyl of course, working at a seafood restaurant, right on the waterfront, lepage has some heartfelt advice for patrons. What do you recommend on the menu here . Ann well, that was, that was a challenge for me, because i eat sharyl what . Ann ive lived in maine my entire life, were known for our seafood, and i dont touch seafood. So, but, of course the lobster. Everybodys got to have the lobster. Sharyl what, so, what do you got against seafood . Just not your cup of tea . Ann its just not my cup of tea. Sharyl the story goes that after lepage worked at the restaurant for a few days, she decided she needed some of her own cleaning supplies, so she showed up at work with her own bucket and her name written on it. None of this any surprise to the governor, whos been her husband for 32 years. Ahead on full measure we follow the money into the highflying pentagon budget and a new bomber that has a soaring sharyl this weeks follow the money takes us to the skies and a new air force bomber with a cost estimated at 23. 5 billion for 100 planes. Designed as an evolution to this, the b2, the new plane is already hitting turbulence over on capitol hill. Ti chiefs have refused to say exactly how much the new b21 will cost. That prompted this reaction from senator john mccain. Sen. Mccain im having a difficult time understanding how the Public Disclosure of a single contract award value funded from an unclassified budget request is going to give the enemy more information on the capabilities of a new bomber, than what the air force has already disclosed. Sharyl for its stealthy price tag, the b21 wins the golden and they have a point. For the b2 bomber, the air force underestimated costs by a staggering 465 . Next week on full measure Hurricane Matthew brings back the issue of hurricanes, coastal communities, and the cost of recovery. This used to be land . This used to be land all along here. Sharyl in louisiana, an indian tribe is facing high water and a threat to their very existence. Theyre also on the receiving end of millions of your tax dollars to move their entire town to higher ground. Socalled climate refugees and whos really to blame for the communitys flooding problems next week on full measure. Thats all for this week. Thank you for watching. Im sharyl attkisson. Until next time, well be you for watching community matters. We hope youll continue to watch as we discuss issues facing our community and provide you with the resources and information needed to find solutions. . . This week, the triangle is traveling the world from october 1416. The 31st annual International Festival will be held in raleigh. And joining us today are festival chair, bearta alchacar, and joe walton, a local brewer participating in the festivals newly expanded beer garden. Thanks for joining us, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks for having us. 31 years the festivals been taking place. Tell us about this years festival. Ok. This year marks our 31st year. We have about 50 cultures that participate in