on making our region t the besest it can be. for three dedecade doug duncan seed in public office, first as a rkville cit cocilmember, then as mayor d then for more tn two decacades, led monomery county as theounty execututive. he was deemed as one e of theost powerful lders in the washingtonon region and the state of maryland,d, but then a a shock to eryonene. he dropped out of the race for vernor citing clinical depresession. in the years since he e has madee hivoice even more powerful comingack to oncagain serve as a lear in the regionnd nonow a powerful voice for overcoming even the darkest days. doug duncan, welcome to "washington business report." >>great to be here this momorning. >> i h have wanted to be a part of greater washington. this year i get to be a part of the class of 2015, a great nor. you are one of my classmates ass wellll as the leadader. not only is it competitive e to get selected but you have to make a commitment. these are month the class daily. ththe whole purpose o of leadership greater washington is not just to talk the talk but walk the walk get to know other parts of the city that you may not know, in your industry. >> we bring together 60 different reonal leaders from government, business nprofit and educate them about the regionons challengeses and issues and help them m create new friendshipand bonds with people they really would n never have met if it werere not for leadership greater wasngton. >> therere are so many people in so many different areas of leadership that it becomes difficult to cross over to other areas. my class is full o o amazing leers from the world of business, academ phphilanthropy and 80. beyond that, whais the purpose,hat are you trying to get leadership greater washgton to do? >> and it is regionwide. we are going into the district and maryland to brining people together. they hireded me veral months ago to come in and take an excellt ororganition and try to make it better, more visible, try toto have more of a an impact in the region. we a are looking at seveveral ways to do that. one thing i'm excited about is starting a series of conversations about topics facing the region and country. we have one at thend o of the month on police community relaons, with at we saw in ferguson, with eric garner, what we sawn brooklyn. there e has to be lot ofof diussion about how police in the commununity can get along and what they suld expect from eachther adershship greaterashington can help facililitate a convertion h here in theegion.n. >> i am blessed in ts job that i get to be expod to differerent partof the citand its leaders s and instititutions, but i ve learned s so muchch in r class, visiting ththe arena theateter, sd schools visiting th the monterey unty police chf to talk about the issues that you have talkeded a about. you rereally do focus on a all the difffferent parts of the community,ut parts that need all the leaders to c come together to be a part of it is going from good to great. >> 10 months out of the year and every month once a day we meet foa full day and talk about a particular topic and issue facing the region. it is arts, poverty, economimic development, health, educaon. ansportation. >> burial bows is a proud graduate and a lot ofther political figures. i want to talk more broay ababout your career. usedn so many people when u dropped out of the race for governor. u are coming on s strong, you were starting to build greater name recogninition in the baltimore ea, taking on governor o'malley. lot of people saw you as the guy to beat t and yoyou said i cannot do it. later you came back and said that i w actually dealing with depression longer than you had realized.. talk abo that t tourney. it was a horrible time in my life. depression is a horrible illness and i would not wish it on anyone. i was dealing with it for couple of yrs, not realizing g what it wawas. tually, i was dealing th a longer than that come looking that, a low level. >> you h had a father and grandfather that was bipolar you have not been diagnosed bipopolar. you have been a g ghost low grade clinical depression. how are you overcoming it? >> i was sitng in masst church and i was just miseserabl all of a sudden itit hit me that i s depressed. i don't know whyt took me so long, given my family htory. >> you are in the ce for governor. >> i thought maybe it was the stress of being an execututive, stre of the campaign.. i wea psychiatrist after that. i was diagnosed with major depression, wewent to a therapist and got treatment there, gogot some medicine. >> you told "the washington post" that you take prozac every day. >> i never want to go back there again. it's a scary place. i want to o talk to people and say the eatment works. that is the story y of my life. you do not need to feel miserable. you do not need get to the levels of committinsuicide, which we see too many people doing. treatment works, you can get better. >> i admiredou before because you u are such an effective county executive, but my father self medicated, undiaosed bipolar or too long with alcohol before he was diagnosed, so i salute you for being candid or what you and your family are facing. now yoare back as a powewerful leader. >> i needed to take time and get healthy again. iropped out of the governor's race bececause i i could not do it for myself or my family. i took time to get heahy and i am back rong than n ever. >> now we are in an important time, stephen fuller f from george mason, alyzing the region, talking about the possibilitity of a declcline. agree or disagree that the washington a area may be in a period of dedecline? >> i think there is a real challenge in front of us. we are entering perhaps april 2 of decline, we don't turn around our economic fortes. we are growing low-wage jobs, are losing higigh wage jobs, and frankly, the suburbs will be in for a rougugh time. montgomery county will have a few young -- rough years. hopefully thdistrict w will do well. >> what is the most importantnt thing, focusing on diversifying our onomy?y? >> that needs to be a pt of it bubut we n need to speak as a region. that is why i am so prououd to be at leadership greater washington. we needd people to ce together and lolook aus within the region and that w will hehelp solve some of the oblems. >> and stephen fulr pointed that. do duncan, i could talk you for over an hour on th subjects. we hope to have you back on the "washington businessss report." when we come back, an expert tells us how we can take a look at the outlook for the economy this year. >> it isis that time a againin. weave anne mccabe triana here to give us a look k at the trends in the m month aad based on some key ececonomicumbers. d me good news, a a good art to the new year but th some caution flags ahead. thanks so much for joining us. lelet's take a looook at what everyone is watching, interest rates. >>e talk about the last titime i was on, the important part, from an economic standpoint and dedetermine where we are in regard to recession, is to look at the yielcurve. wh that inverts, short-term rates go higher than long-term rates, that could be an indicator that we are close to recession. we will talk more later but one of the things you will notice on the graphic we show is that wewe have taken the arrow two spots closer to thred. >> let's talk about that now. >> we have seen -- we are not close to an inversion but we have seen a flatten, so something we are lookiking at. that means short-term interest rates went up and long-term rates went down. it was only the second time we had seen that in the past 30 years. this oneoser to the red but wehink you arere still a ys away fromom an inversn. >> the next ing that you like at, leading economi indicators. where are those? t this is a grt indicator as to what we should sehappen in the economy. the most recent lei that we got was from mid december. it increased 5.6%, exactly where it was last me, stl in the positive. >> how are we doing with stock valuations? >> this is the one indicator last time th was a bit hot. we put it on watch and it still is. the p/e ratio on the s&p 500 was a bit higher than the lastst time i s here. long-term average is 15. it's important to remember ththat p/e ratios can be elevated for a while andow interest rates can supporort long p/e ratios at elevated levels. >>nother tricky ncept, market breadth. where are we the? >> it is really quite simple, the idea of how many companies are participating in the rally. the more broad-based it is, the more companiniesarticipating the more bullish or positive indicator it and the more concentrated the company's participating in the rally are. >> i love this number because it is so important to show t overall alth of workers economy, wages >> we are looking g good there as well. it has bn a broad-based rally. >> letet's talklk about the initute for supply management are dissing managers index. it's a mouthful but something important to keep an eye on. >> when the ism pea and starts going down, to 36 months later we see a peak in profits. we saw this number ely in january, it was positive for the 1919th consecutive month, so this is also a posive signal. nohange as of last time. >> in the green, edgdging toward the re out of all these areas, for your clients, which ones are you the most nervous about what will you be watching most closely? >> the one that is most different is the interest rates tori. we talked a lot about how long-term ierest t rates came down which was unexpected but a lot -- not a lolot of people are talking out thflattening of the yield curve. as i mentioned, we are still a ways away from in version, but this idea thathen n interest rates up the market goes down or that we lose the bull market that's a major misconception. we went back to data from the 1950's and found the average first time the fed increases interest rates happens only 37% of the way through an economic recovery, meaning less than halfway through the economic recovevery. i want people to remember that when interest rates will increase, which they probably will this year, we don't believe that will derail the market by any means. we may s volatility increased but it does not mean that the bullll markeis over. > i love that you are such a girl geek and that you can't do number so well. a working mom, anne mccabe triaiana, thank you for the insigh when w we come bac we lo what falling oil prices d due at the pump, but whwhat we wawant to look at in terms ofhe w wider impac and mandatory family leave coming up? is it a good or bad idea? >> welcome back. the roundtable is already bickering and i just built some water but we are going to give going because this promises to be livelely week of discussion. we have not h these two at a table for a while and they enjnjoy taking each other onon. it's been a week of contentioious topics in the business headlines from m mandatory paid maternity leave as a new possibility to new warnings at the washington area couldld be in decliline. here ttake on the pics and momore, ter marie c economistst at the universy of maryland smith schoolf busisiness, and josh boak, economics reporter from the associateted presess. peter, i want to start with yo stephen fuller this week more and the wasashington area is i in serioudanger of declineses. we have been resting on r laurels d of losinthe highaying g jobs. ththe jobs we are getting are lower paying jobs. the big oblem, he says. what is s your take? >> i guess he missedhe technology sururge aund the airport and all the rest. reality is that sequestration and the process of building entitlements in government squeezes the budget on discretionary spending and a lot of that happens here. we are losing ait there but wee are much more pritized many were the last time we went through a cycycle likike this, so we will be e ok. >> i am so disappointed, josh, because yoyou just -- y both agreed on this. you believe this? we have rested on our laurels, immune to depreion. i think we have some shaking u to do, what is your take? >> i think so, but rig now it is like shouting fire before someone has pulled out the matche it easy economy is highly educated. if we think about human beings as a resource, we have the oil of tas. that will pay off over titime in terms of higher incomes. we earn more than the national average. the fact that we might be falling behind means that we are not growing as qckly, but inin the long run we are bebetter positioned. >> it is great that we are now a foodie town, but a restaurant job is n not akin to a job to someone with a phd. >> thehe more tech jobs you get, the moreestaurants you get. nothing to be alarmed about. he certaly want to pay tention and make the place attractive, but ask yourself why is israel such a prosperous place? it is basically sand but it's a very prosperous becaususe it has very creative and intelligigent peop. washington has that. if they cannot work in the government, they will learn to do something else. >> we will be profiling a w of them l later in the season, but we do n not havave enough time for that now. i was in theenate when w we created 12 weeks of mdatoryry family leave for anye who wantnted it d d thr jobs to be protected. all that fighting but it was unpapaid lve. many still do not realize that. now esident obama saysys it is timeme to have that leave be paid. mateity ave, family leave, whatatever. he wants the states to help pay for it. peter morici, aood idea or bad idea? >> not at this time. emoyers can be compelled to pay for leave, but they would just pay people less. at the end of the dayhey n only pay so much to get a pair of eyeglasses made. if thatthis is not a good time for it. >> easy for the guy to say but if you a are a woman you doo not have much of a choice. you have to take m materninity leave. if it is unpaid,- i took out ans to pay for my maternity leavave. i shouldn't have to do that, should i? >> i looook at it as a potential positive for the economy. we have seen labor force participation for r women peaking. so why not give them more opportunits to stay in the workforce via paid maternity leave so that we can use their talent and s skills and e education? if they are contributing emplers will see the benefit of it. >> 52 eks of 100% -- 90% paid in great britain. we will not get to the european standas, but india has at least 10 weeks of paid mataternity leave. n we do as well as india? >> the question can we pay y as much as france does -- >> that's not the queion. if a developing country like india can afford to have paid family leave, surely we can afford it. >> there is a differen between mandatory paid leave at a place like exxon which absorbs many people and if you're a corner hardware store. > i did not havany company that was huge. they don't have to operate, why should they? >> if you are a cacashier at a hardware store w with 12 employees and a woman comes in nting the job, t the manager may say, can i reasonably afford --so who will be hired? >> there are stitill major companies that don't offer a single day of paid famy leavave. that is an emotional question. >> a am i gegettinemotional? it is a reasoned one. >> can you deny thatomeone has to p for it, that it is not freeee? > absolutely, but it isis not just a woman in, but we en up every the brunt of it. >> you are only taking the piece of the argument that you wan the president is also proposining mandatory sick leave. >> i'm sayingng that everne deserves it. >> he is also talking about bank sick leave and that nd of thing. if you do it, you just have to understand thahat the consequence is, the average wage rate will be lower. only so much can be paid -- >> sor, i think have to share the burden. >> it's not likeke wages are rising. so the concept of the situation is going to t worse might be far-fefetched. >> the oy sang grace th for people is that 90% of what saidid in the state the union nevehappens. we talked about oil prices before. ter, you saiaid you are not worriedd that oil prices could go too lolow to h hurt ththe economy. are you still feeling that way? >> there is less drilling and so forth, but the benefits far outweigh it. in the near term we may get nervous because the effects on the oil patch our immediate. they have less money and are cutting back on drilling. so far, consumers have not turned that into spending but they will. >> restaurant sales e up. that is a consumer that coumers are better off. >> even the restaurant js don't paenoughgh. stay with us. we will be right back. >> welcome back. we talked about tech a innovation. it quick note fro our friends at fososter lane, the collaborate event is happening fday and saturday in washington with speakers including tom chi the founder ofoogle x, as well as others. were looking forward to innovations and discuions that this e event will brg. these join us. things for joioining us this week and let us know what you thought of t the show by twting us or commenting on r facebook page. for any showthat you want to go back and see, you can alws go to >> this week on "government matters" -- >> we want to cyber criminals to feel the full force of american justice. they are doing as much damage, if not more these days, as folks involved in conventional crime. >> could behavr analysis play crucial role in stoppingng cyberattacks? >> you are also looking at the nks that are pieced together so you can find the different clues you are looking for. you are looking for the cyber version of a needle in a haystack. >> fighting terrorism in the age of big data. the paris terrorist attac expose the intelligence community's problem in combining through mountains of information. >> the end result of this is a blanket rchase agreement, a new contract that will

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