Fact that just two years ago the iraqis really wanted the United States to leave, and even if the United States had been willing to leave a residual force behind to help the iraqis, the iraqis, this particular government wouldable, was dead set on getting the americans out and now he is coming back to ask not only for apache helicopters but also for help in intelligence and even the use of drones. Rose picking up on that david, what does the administration, Obama Administration how do they respond from that and what do they want from him . I think the administration is interested in exploring this intelligence assistance, the u. S. Knows that it has a problem as it sees the growth of al qaeda in northeast syria, and the resurgence of al qaeda in iraq, it really looked like it had been all by extinguished during the time of the u. S. Troop surge and general petraeuss command there. It is strange, iraq must be the only country in the world that today would like more nsa surveillance on its territory, but they literally want to know where these people are and how to target them. I think the u. S. Is they know maliki, maliki has been a disappointment to u. S. Special, as ajami suggests we went way too forward with him, he was a petty tyrant, some years ago but now as the worm turns, here is maliki in washington looking for help and in this case, there are reasons why the u. S. Ought to give him some help because it is in our interest. Rose a group of snawrs wrote to the president accused him of failure of governance that contributed to the surge in violence. What role did that have . What impact will that have . You are asking me, charlie, republicans in the senate led by senator mccain and senator gram are just on a warpath in general about the Obama AdministrationForeign Policy in the middle east arguing it is failing. In many dimensions. I think there are so many elements that they oppose, the one i would focus on for your viewers is, i think the job that they have done communicating with even traditional and Close Friends and allies, the uae, jordan would be two obvious examples, has not been what you would expect or indeed what the u. S. Needs right now. This period of change in the region you have got to really stand close to all the people who matter in terms of the execution of Foreign Policy. Rose . Maliki is not only a tyrant but from the beginning he is sectarian to the core, and that means this shiite divide and he has taken the war to the sunni minority in iraq and i think in a way has done sort of irans bidding in that way but i think even if you set the war in syria aside, he would have an enormous problem on his hands because, on his hands because he has not he has not tried to be inclusive in the way that he has governed iraq, and so a lot of the problems he is talking about, al maliki wrote an op ed he said help us fight the terrorists, a lot of these problems are of his own making and so i think if you are president obama and you are sitting there with him a and asking for help i think president obama needs to think long and hard before he gives it to him. Rose what role are they playing in terms of allowing iranians to fly over iraq to go to syria . Well, i mean, in that i mean that is coming right to the heart of the matter. You know, the regime of syria, the regime of Bashar Alassad, the murderous regime is being sustained really only because of the iranian, the really incredible iranian effort that has been going on and that is largely carried on by transport planes that have been flying over iraq and essentially with iraqi permission. It is unclear if the iraqis had an air force and if they were stronger would they say no to the iranians we dont really know but what we do know is they allow those over flights to carry on and certainly against american objections but all of that comes back to, i think, to 2010, you know, the United States doesnt have a lot of influence there now. You know, we were there for nine years, you know, tens of thousands of troops, we fought a war there and lost a lot of people, we have virtually nothing there now and so we just dont have that much leverage. There is not that much we can ask maliki to do. He is coming to us asking for help but we can get a lot from him, but we dont really have we dont have we havent had a presence in that country for two years now. Rose okay. I want to broaden this out to the relationship between the United States and the middle east. Robin, talk a bit about prince bandar and what he said and then prince facile and what he said about some sense that dont trust the United States, they dont think they can depend on the United States and therefore they are looking elsewhere. Well, the there is a significance between the United States and many of its traditional allies, most notably saudi arabia, and the saudis have taken some unprecedented steps first in refusing to give the speech at the United Nations and then to walk away from a seat on the Security Council when 15 seat position was long thought after had been elected this would have been given saudi arabia a great deal of calling but the saudis reacted and said they are very disappoint with the the United States, in fact outraged at its passivity on syria and its failure to arm and support the rebels and opening up a dialogue with iran so this has led to an unprecedented rift. The saudis are acting childish and acting like United States is more important to the United States than saudi arabia is to, or than happen than the United States is zero to saudi arabia, we see this across the area, rather the divisions among the sheikdoms so this is a time that because of iraq, because of syria, we are seeing kind of a realignment of loyalties, of interest groups, and this plays out in particularly in iraq and syria today. Rose david, back to all of these points, but just come back to you in terms of conflict between saudi arabia and iran and wha what the iranians, whate saudis are saying but also how the u. S. Might respond to this, because as you know susan rice recently said we cant just be consumed by one region, as part of this sort of socalled pivot to the west i mean to the east and china and the rest of asia. Let me just say a few words about what i think is a positive aspect of the middle east, the administration is much attacked middle east policy. Obama is trying to see, if it is possible to make an opening to iran and negotiate a deal to limit Irans NuclearProgram Short of having Nuclear Weapons in some verifiable way. That is a big deal. I think it is in the u. S. Interests and israels interest, as the very complex negotiation. It is not surprising that saudi arabia, which regards iran as its main regional rival is upset, and the saudis are furious that they werent consulted and informed but they are really furious about the different course of u. S. Policy. I think that is to be expected and it shouldnt deter the u. S. You know, fundamentally i think it is about the sunni shy achieve, shia of the region which is dangerous it is not in the u. S. Interest to forever go along with the saudis in their agenda in that regional sectarian conflict and as the u. S. Backs away i think there is good sense in that. Rose robin. Well, you know, one of the things we are not looking at in this whole in the many sides of the conflict in the region at that today is how they could change the face of the region itself. We all assume that the region is as it has always been or has been in the last century since the european powers divided it up, but the conflict in iraq, the conflict in syria they are beginning to bleed together, there is a real danger that syria wont be able to hold together and that will then influence what is happening in iraq. Remember that when iraq turned its civil war around in 2006 and 2007, it was with the presence of 100,000 american troops there. And an awakening among the sunni arabs that led to the birth of the sons of iraq which fought alongside the americans and maliki as Prime Minister has basically destroyed the sons of iraq and walked away from one of the most effective creations, effective forces inside in checking al qaeda and the extremists. Now he is saying, well, in fighting terrorism i am going to recreate the sons of iraq, well a lot of those people dont believe maliki and there arent 100,000 american troops there to support them and there arent the oil the riches that the United States invested in that peace process, and there is a real danger that if maliki or someone doesnt hold iraq together and syria, which is already falling into three recognizable pieces that the whole map of the middle east begins to change and that has repercussions not just for the region but for the flow of energy, the trade patterns the alliances that, you know, for years, for decades to come. Yeah, i agree with robin. It is the the region is potentially, anyway, it is cracking up, i mean if you look at al qaeda in iraq and syria, i mean it is basically a joint operation, but you have essentially from the iranians border all the way, you know, through iraq through syria to lebanon the sunni shy a conflict broadening and see these countries breaking up, think a, if you throw the white house into this, i think president obama he came into office in 2009, wanted wanting to get out of the middle east, you know, forever and ever, and rose wash his hands of the place. He was, he wanted to get out of iraq, which he did, and we are in the process of getting out of afghanistan but i think i think i think his desire, at least as we can divine it, is he wished he didnt have to deal with the middle east. He would like to pivot to asia, that is where the economies are growing and he would like to walk away from the middle east and what we see, i think, all of these things that are happening that we can see post of which are bad, they are happening essentially in the absence of really strong american leadership. Rose what is going to happen in syria . Blood. Well, a good muslim will say, only allah knows. We dont know what is going to happen to syria. We dont know if syria will hold. We know syria is broken into these different parts. We do know that historically syria was, it has the sunni cities and damascus, it had the alawite coast and druid area in the southeast and kurdish part in the northeast, so in a way, syria itself is being tested and the proposition is being tested whether syria could hold together. One note on, i am very sympathetic to what David Ignatius says that we cant really solve the sunni shia schism, the sunni shia schism dates back to karbala, it is not calling on the United States to solve that crisis but the United States has to have a syria policy that worked, but this idea that is threatening Bashar Alassad with a red line, threatening with the bombing that never came and then turning to the russians and to the iranians, and we now have a proposition by the United States that we want iran to be party to the negotiations over syria. How you could ask iranians, whose revolutionary guard is a hezbollah proxy in killing syrians that we invite them to be part of the discussion of syrias future is really a moral and strategic catastrophe. Rose so what is going to happen with the russian, u. S. Sponsored negotiations and according to what i have read, the syrians have done a reasonable j of adhering to what was required of them; is that right, david . Well, they are certainly carrying forward with the specific benchmarks, you know, since the russians are their patrons, they are invested in this, they dont want to upset the russians. Interestingly i heard a senior iraqi diplomat today thinking about the geneva 2 negotiations as they are called which would be negotiations for political transition in syria, he said, well this might end up looking like the Iraqi Governing Council we which we all remember is this interim government that was, you know, often quite happen less, dexter will remember setting outside of their meetings but maybe, certainly some transitional process that reduces the killing, the suffering, i mean we are heading toward a nightmarish winter, so as much as i think this is an interim solution, not a lasting solution, it is, if it reduces the violence i think it is probably a good idea. Rose john mccain often said we have to do more simply because assad will never negotiate to any kind of leaving, as long as he thinks he might win. Is that tied going to turn, is that tide going to turn because of what is happening on the ground in terms of u. S. Support, in terms of the saudi support, in terms of what the qatar and people from qatar are doing in terms of what the turks are doing . Ly just give the briefest answer from what i have seen on the ground and this dates to almost a year ago but there is no way Bashar Alassad will govern the entirety of syria ever again, anybody who thinks that just needs to rethink it. It is not possible. He may govern islands and govern cantons but all of the players have to decide is whether they want to step that kind of lebanon style partition, de facto partition of syria, what the rules for it would be, but the idea that assads government will ever control all of syria again is a nonstarter. Yes, but i think the idea that assad is willingly walk away from power too is hot going to happen. Remember the war in lebanon went on for 15 years and had an effective partition of the country and i think, you know, only allah knows but it is not hard to imagine that we have got 15 years of very uncertain, very uncertain events ahead of us. Okay. I want to make sure i come back to this. What is the relationship today in terms of the present government in iraq and the present government in iran . Well, i think it is a very interesting question. I mean, Nouri Almaliki and his government, are they sat trap of iran, like hezbollah is a sat trap of iran. It is not quite because iraq is larger and iraq has its own oil money, and iraq has its own religious class, if you were a really devoted shia someone will tell you the leader in iran issued a fatwah and then on the other hand grand eye toly issued a fatwah you would, of course,. Believe the sass stay any is more believable. But the problem is so long as maliki intends on this dictatorship, so long as malikis intent to marginalize in a way, antagonize the sunnis in western iraq, then his dependence on iran grows. It is a choice he has made. It is a choice he has made also that he is throwing his lot with the iranians and with bashar against a rebellion in syria. He sees the rebellion strictly in sectarian, sectarian lines. Referring to the fact that who is a any wrote in that, hosani wrote in that piece is literally in damascus part of the time running part of that war. Yeah. I mean, i think the iranians really have had kind of the run of the place for the last twoyear. When if you think back to, say a year ago, when it really looked like assad was going to go, he was teetering, it was kind of a wakeup call for the iranians and the russians, i dont know if they were working together but the iranians began a pretty massive or they accelerate add pretty massive airlift of guns, ammunition, money. Rose and hezbollah came in too . Hezbollah came in, thousands of hezbollah fighters, 7 billion loan to the Syrian Government from the iranians and came in to more or less tame take over personal control of the war and i think that is what, that is what stabilized, that is what stabilized the situation for assad and thats why we are here, and thats why wwhere we are. And i think that is why i think assad is determined to hang on now, because i think he thinks he can. I mean as long as he has his benefactors he will fight it out he doesnt care if syria is governed in three different parts. I mean, syria is about him, you know. Rose matter of power. Yes he will stay as long as he can. Rose this is what you wrote, centrifugal forces of tribes and ethnicities which you have sort of repeated here, empowered by unintended consequences of the arab spring are pulling apart the region defined by european colonial powers a century ago and defended by arab ought accurates ever since. So what is the future then, i mean if you look at that consequence, what is shaping the middle east other than this great conflict between sunni and shia . Well, i think the fact you have seen the opening up or a political system that people have a sense of empowerment and more importantly a sense of entitlement and they are all looking for protection, whether from their sect, their clan, their neighborhood, and that is leading to, because so much of politics has been based on fear in the past, it is still being defined by fear and looking for protection, looking for a little bit more than the next guy and the piece of to the pie isnt big enough so we are seeing ironically and tragically that the push forward for democracy also led people to kind of want more rights than the next person and it is unleeciald a sense of entitlement that, but no sense of responsibility l is no sense of common good and you see that reflected most visibly in iraq, and in syria, where there is the National Identity that was created a century ago has not survived, and that the local forces are more divisive and they will define the future more than the kind of nationalism that has defined the region and these entities for the past century. And so we are looking at literally while we are focused today on whether we give arms to maliki and what will we do about syria, the fact is the stakes here are so much bigger than they have ever been before. Rose okay. This is what you said about maliki. Dexter. Maliki dislikes the iranians and he loathes assad, but he hates al misra and he doesnt want an al qaeda government in damascus. Thats right. I mean, i think all of that is a long way of saying that maliki is going to