following. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: king abdullah ii of jordan ruled his country since the death of his father in 1999, the winds of change have swept through the arab world and since left the region forever altered, gone or, gone, qaddafi of libya, with these strong men now falling, political islam is on the rise and i spoke with king abdullah over the weekend in amman, the capital of jordan and shared his perspective on those issues effecting jordan and the rest of the middle east. much of our focus, conversation focused on syria where they believe bashar al assad's power is numbered. the prime minister defected to jordan today, the conflict in syria is a serious problem for jordan because of the tens of thousands of refugees i went to the refugee camps on the border that separate syria and jordan and spoke with some of the people who have come across the border and are now living in tents. here is my conversation with king abdullah. >> your majesty, thanks for taking this time. it is quite a moment in the region for jordan. >> absolutely. >> rose: let me begin with syria. how is this going to play itself out? >> well, that is anybody's guess. obviously as part of the international community we are desperately looking for a political solution and i think all of us going back several months were engaged with the russians because we felt that was the best option on the table. having the russians being the guarantor to the regime of finding an exit policy that allows a peaceful transition. that is still the best option on the table. the only problem i think over the past two months we have seen a creep on the ethnic violence, the start of potential civil war, when different segments of syrian societies are having a go at each other. so as well as we are doing our job on the political level, reality is on the ground may or may have already over taken the political challenges that we are trying to set for ourselves. so today is very confusing in syria. >> are you worried about the number of extreme minimums coming in, al qaeda and others? as part of the free syrian army's effort. >> we have been worried about that from the start because whenever you have a crisis anywhere in the world you are always going to have extremists taking advantage of the situation. we have been monitoring al qaeda elements coming into syria from ththe beginning of the crisis. we know that they are there. we know that they are established. they are being monitored but obviously because of chaos, whenever you have an internal struggle like this, it is fertile ground for them, and so we have to keep an eye on that challenge. >> rose: basketball there is still hope for a political transition? >> well, we have to hope that there is. and that is our job is to continue to push for a political solution. but we can't be knave, naive at the same time, i have been concerned over the past two months that the tone has changed internally on the ground, and so we need to accelerate. >> rose: characterize the tone change. >> well, sectors of society against each other, different elements, syria is different than iraq, countries in the region because there is such a different mosaic of syrian society, so many different elements the alawites you know of the sunnis and sunnis merchant elite, christians, druids, kurds, a syrians, as syrians, the mosaic, when you put all of them together they become the majority of the syrian population .., when, whenever there is chaos you get to a point where those groups sometimes have a go at each other. it makes it difficult for us to keep focused on the larger picture and w we have seen that level of deterioration on the ground that has created concerns for us and when you get to that point, have we lost sight of the larger picture of finding a political solution. i think there is hope but what i am worried about, the longer we take to find a political solution, and the more the chaos continues, then we may be pushing syria into the abyss, so my point of view, is let's move as quickly as possible, i mean conference after conference is great, international forums where we get the russians and chinese involvement is fine, but we can't afford the time, you know, where the politicians try to get together in international conferences but there is a reality on the ground that is catching up if it hasn't already. >> rose: and what is the abyss. >> the abyss is complete and utter civil war which will take us, i think years to come back from. so i am just saying that i am alarmed at the internal difficulties and, again, we are looking at a transition in syria, it is very important that we need to continue for the opposition to extend a hand to the alawites so that they feel they have a stake in the future of syria and i don't know if we are doing that enough. >> and how should that be done? >> well, again,. >> rose: the army should reach out to them and -- >> the free syrian army and the other organizations out there but there needs to be more work on the ground, how do we include the a alex rodriguez whites to e part of the discussions on transition .. we have talked to the russian and chinese about this, they fully understand that, but i don't think we are in an area where we are comfortable yet that they feel that that message has gotten to them. >> rose: what role are the iranians playing? >> the iranians obviously strategically, the loss of syria from the influences would be a tremendous blow for them. so from their point of view they will continue to support the regime as long as possible. >> rose: and supply arms? >> and supply arms. >> obviously because as long as the regime goes it is in their definite interests and obviously not just the syrians but to an extent the support of hezbollah in lebanon. >> rose: what do you think is going through the mind of bashar al assad? >> well, it is a good question. when the west -- i mean, i had a meeting with president putin here two months ago and his boyfriend is, the west was today, his point of view is, the west has to find a solution, no let's allow him a political solution that allows an exit. are we giving him enough choices? at the same time in his mentality he will stick to his guns. he believes that he is in the right. i think the regime feels that it has no alternative but to continue, and i think i mentioned this many times before, i don't think it is just bashar al assad, it is not the individual, it is the system of the regime, so if bashar was to exit under whatever circumstances, does whoever replace him have the ability to rechart and reform syria politically and the system doesn't allow for that because then i think the alawite structure crumbles this is why reaching out to the alawites and making them feel they have a major stake in the future of syria is so important, if we go back to iraq, you know, the major miscalculation then was when there was a policy of -- that created a nightmare we still haven't fully recovered from. and so that is why -- are we doing enough for the alawites? so for bashar at the moment, if i am reading the way he is thinking is he is going to do what he is going to do indefinitely. >> rose: how indefinitely can he do that is the question? and at some point he has to look at what has happened to mubarek, to qaddafi, to -- >> i try to put myself in his shoes. and the options don't look very good. if there is an exit policy for him to go out, where would he go? now, there are different arguments outside, you know, some people say well he has gotten to a point where he wouldn't be allowed to leave because of crimes against the state. >> rose: war crimes. >> war crimes. there is a thought out there if it stops continued violence then, you know, the lesser of all evils. i think his mentality again is, you know, if -- and again, there is -- i have a feeling that if he -- if he can't rule greater syria, then maybe an alawite enclave is plan b and that is something that needs to be considered, because if that happens. >> rose: that is an option you think for him to be bart of an alawite -- >> that would be, i think, for us th the worst case scenario because that means the breakup of greater syria, and that means that everybody starts land grabbing which makes no sense to me and if syria then implodes on itself, that would create problems that would create us decades to come back from. so that would be my major concern. and i can't remember which word was i, which war, i think 1973 they moved their major headquarters from mamas arkansas back to the areas to the south of their sort of alawite bases, during the war so it is not that hasn't happened before. so there is that mentality to create maybe that mini state, and, again, you have 2.5 million alawites .. and that's why i think we need to move faster because others may be dictating the pace of the way syria is going and that is what has me concerned. if there are other plan bs or cs we need to be aware of this and that's why we need to galvanize our efforts to make sure a unified transformation of syria in the way we need to -- >> rose: he said he will not use chemical weapons against his own people but killing his own people anyway. they are massing in aleppo as we speak. would he use in your judgment chemical weapons? >> i hope to god that he wouldn't, because i think that would be a trip wire for machinations in the international community. that miss miss clal miscalculation and the use of helicopters and and tanks he is using against his people, and he has been fairly successful in using them. >> rose:. >> the chemical weapons is something that scares everybody, what scares most of us is the weapons, chemical weapons coming into rebel hands and who are those snrebls and obviously the use of chemical weapons against innocent people and again, there are so many levels of attention against syria so as we are working on the political level trying to find a solution if he uses chemical weapons is that the trip wire that all of a sudden people have -- the international community has to react so i think he understands, i hope he understands that would be a major miscalculation. more complicate than that, what happens if some of those storage depp pots fall into .. rebel hands and i think i said that earlier several weeks ago that those weapons sites need to be secured by the international community, so immediately people have to cross borders of syria to make sure that those weapons storage deval patrick pots. >> depots are secure. >> you are not looking for a reason for ente intervention, ia crisis we have to react and the problem, i am wary of people looking at it as a reason, i hope people don't plan to push whoever they may be to make sure that those storage sites fall into -- the minute you cross the borders then no plan goes the way you plan it so the moment you cross the border with pill triit is anybody's guess what the outcome is, and going back, charlie, to your question about the strength of the regime i just want to maybe point out everybody sort of things, you know, what is happening to the opposition is definitely getting stronger but, you know, the regime has always been resilient and i think that we may be overstating the strength of the opposition, i mean, let's not jump to conclusions, he still has a lot of power, and i actually -- when you say how long does he have in power? my first question is, you know, how long does he have to govern greater syria? i mean going back to plan b, i mean he could still be in power, that is one issue. the other issue people need to look at are the finances depending on who you listen to he has between 5 and $7 billion of reserve in the central bank, if he runs out of money to run his country, i think that is more indicative of how strong the regime is, because if you can't pay your troops. >> rose: down from 17 billion. >> if i look at the weakness of the regime i look at the finances, so he if he has money coming in technically he should be able to hold on indefinitely if he runs out of money, can't keep the electricity power stations open and can't keep the water running and can't keep paying his soldiers, i think that is where the major crack is. >> and how long, what is the ticking clock on that? so that the economic pressure will be so severe he has no choice well, depending on who you listen to, financially, if you look at the central bank figures toward the end of the year technically but it depends on how much financial assistance he is getting from outside, so technically if he is getting enough money from supporting countries, that would go on for a long time. >> rose: here is the question. is this a man who wants to go down in flames? >> but is he the man who feels he is responsible for 2.5 million alawites? >> rose: do you believe that is the reason he is fighting even though he is committing war crimes he is committing war crimes because he believes he has to do this as the protector of the alawites business his father also was a protector of? >> i think there is a bit of that in his thinking, you know, that my father did it, why can't i? i have heard that from people that know him fairly well. but again i think it is a system, i think he is a hostage to the system that is around him and, again, if he was to be replaced, whoever comes in his place would he be any different and i think that is the lack of understanding that most people have about syria. whoever continues and takes his place has the ability to create a transition a political transition in syria. >> rose: how big of a problem are the refugees for you? >> well as of today, we roughly have 145,000 across the border, that is a major spike over the past three months. we are averaging anywhere between 300 to 1,000 an evening maybe coming over at night. we have 30,000 syrians that we have treated in our medical facilities. we have 25,000 children that we have inoculated underage of 5, 8,000 students now going to our school system. so it is a publish on us, and, you know, the numbers look like they are increasing. >> rose: are you keeping them in the refugee examples or moving outside of the refugee camps. >> what happens when they initially come through because we have no visa restrictions with syria they basically came through as i advice vheissu tord found themselves visitors, and going to the north and south, you have to remember half a million syrians are married to jordanian families and where -- in turkey the numbers are much less, the reason why they come to jordan is because of the culture and the language, they felt much more comfortable coming to jordan. but it got to a point where now it is an emergency. we can't afford anymore syrians coming through because of the load it is on the system we have here. so as a result we have now to create the ref jae camps because we just can't sustain anymore. >> rose: and how much cross border firing is going on? >> well when i was up there with the soldiers two nights ago the boys were telling me, there is firing sort of every other night. mainly the syrian army firing at refugees coming. >> rose: and you fire back in order to keep them, protect those that are fleeing? >> when the syrian army opens up against the refugees trying to cross we fire to the syrian positions to keep refugees so is not an engagement between the two armies exempt for a week ago where the syrian army were firing at syrian refugees where they killed a young boy and wounded several others in the firefight to stop them from continuing the killing of the rest of the syrian refugees, there was an engagement against the syrian army that resulted i think in the death of two syrian soldiers. >> rose: do you worry this could get out of hand. >> not from our side. i mean, there is strict fire control, when i met them, when i spent time with the boys several nights ago, that night, the syrians old fire against our positions and the commander pa made a point of not answering back simply because i was visiting that night and they didn't want to give the impression i gave the go to fire. >> these boys are amazing, the company that i met had had 13,000 refugees go through their position in the past six weeks, that battalion has had 30,000 refugees go through them, that position, their battalion position in the past month and a half. and so the soldiers are sharing their bread and water with them, you know, bringing in wounded men, women and children. >> rose: but what is going to happen to them? >> >> rose: to. >> to the refugees. >> well the refugees are going to camps, the international community has been fantastic, the king of spain called me several days ago, so did the king of morocco, they are trying to provide assistance, we just got a message that the french were sending a ministry field hospital to help build the refugee camps so the international community are responding tremendously, to the northern border, i just met the australian foreign minister who was also visiting the northern border to help. >> rose: if intervention is required, what is the red line? what would require outside forces to go into syria to stop the violence? >> on the side? >> well, again, unfortunately i think it is the unforeseen, going back to the libyan issue as i mentioned it was the use of his air power, what we are talking about today it is chemical, it is something we haven't thought of, it is something that so shocks the international community they say enough is enough. >> rose: we haven't seen that yet? >> we haven't but we are getting to the point as i just mentioned recently, the sectarian violence is increasing, i fear that they may be a trigger, there may be a trigger point some where where it becomes a free-for-all. >> rose: and that trigger point may be? >> i can't point that out, but it is just -- at th it is gettig nasty tore the point -- when it gets to the point where it looks like there is no longer control over syria, then it is anybody's guess. and then i think everybody is trying to do the best of some really bad plans. >> rose: and a lot of people have a vested interest in seeing it go one way or the other. >> and the other problem is you have turks in the north, arabs to the south and east and israelis to the west, none of us who have been traditionally money to speak to each other with great confidence. and there are a lot of agendas. >> rose: and the turks have an alawite population. >> a larger alawite population in turkey than is actually in syria. >> rose: the arab spring, we have seen what has happened in egypt and tunisia and libya and now watching syria, bahrain had issues, where are we and what is the issue that is emerging with political islam? >> well, the arab spring, and again, you know, i hear this often in america, what should be the policy for arab spring? and we have got to get away from using the arab spring, because that is the word that is out there we will use it for now, because arab spring means different, different things to every country country so you can't have a policy toward arab spring. the best way of me describing it in the vernacular that is maybe being understood now, in the west is, arab spring is going to go through cycles, whatever happened at the beginning of this new phase of arab life, this crossroads that we crossed, we will look back when, whether it is five, ten, 15 years and say it is a good thing and it will be a major turning point in history. but each country is going to go through cycles, from arab spring to arab winter, we have seen that naah couple of countries. >> rose: what what is the arab winter? >> well, wrote you look at certain arab countries that have not been able to establish itself in a clear path, where it is going to go cyclical in a couple of areas, a couple of years until it actually settles down