Federal reserve officials came up with a need to raise rates. When you see stocks of hivequality Companies Like cummings or macys, and nordstrom tonight joining in with a really hideous report, the last thing you would expect is for a grownup federal governor or president to squawk about the need to when copper is trading at levels not seen in years, when aluminum and iron are plummeting, kind of crazy for people in positions of power to keep talking about how we desperately need to raise Interest Rates, raise them. Its positively counter intuitive. With oil once again about to challenge the 3 level, who would think a lot of Federal Reserve officials would grab a microphone and say these the against inflation. Im sorry. What inflation . I see deflation almost everywhere, except in wages. But clearly that is all that matters to the fed, because by any other calculus, Everything Else is going down, except for make bonein chicken and allnatural beef. Two pretty niche commodities, unless you own a restaurant like i do. If you didnt know any better, you would think these fed policy makers will talk about the need its a recipe for declining stock prices, and thats what youre getting. No matter, like ive told you repeatedly, as soon as the fed got the ammunition to raise rates in the form of last fridays very strong employment number, this market would go from being intermittently bearish. Some some pockets of strength hand some pockets of excessive negativity. Thats exactly where we are right now. Remember, the fed has no mandate to preserve your stock portfolio. I have they critics who sayivity stocks who want higher to to give your portfolio a boost. That is just totally untrue. I absolutely do favor higher stock prices, because more of you own i like stocks savings vehicles. I dont want you to lose money. Hey, thats my bias. However, i also dont want inflation to come roaring back. Even if stocks go higher, you wont do well in a raging inflation environment, simply because your purchasing power would be so impaired. Theres a very easy test that i use to assess the stock market, which is what we care about in cramerica can handle a rate hike. The text, simp. Is the economy so strong that it will slope, but not derail the good things that happened, will it be this this. All aboard or this . [ train whistling ] i think when we have the situation where prices are coming down for so many good goods whether its the retail or supermarket, you dont need to be worried about a inflation. Unfortunately im not hearing these concerns from any fed officials that spoke today. The fed feels sanguine Everybody Knows them now. Its facebook, amazon, netflix more Portfolio Managers pile into these names, the less i like them. Now, let me introduce you to into the situation that will work. Its a niche situation. Its stocks that reflect not negative, but too Much Negative and can be bought either for trader investment, exhibit a is kohls, where i shop for sogs or slacks. But anyway, i got a very nice kohls from my house, nice place. Seven months ago. 25 up in six months. Accelerated with the unseasonably warm weather, a and got clobbered again. Macys was, it would tore and when kohls delivered, the stock zoomed. Yeah, we got too negative and it took off. Macys does have more hurt by the strong dollar, i have never seen one of those leaders holding up a yellow flag or one of those umbrellas, with going into the kohls. I think that it would shockingly bad i clearly didnt spend enough when the wife took me there two weeks ago. Everybody else is getting hey, how about that popeyes louisiana kitchen. We had the ceo on today. I think the pharmaceutical companies could soon fit the bill. If theres a fedengendered slowdown, theyll be are you ready skeedaddy . Its a stock that can be punished by rhetoric and the fact that its a member but bristolmyers is down almost 10 , and i want you to keep a eye on both General Mills and kimberlyclark. They reported terrific quarters, with the recent of the market. In fair theyre in consolidating industries. Plus the raw costs, theyre ought plummeting. They have less exposure to the strong dollar. Finally let me give you another one. They went down today. Oddly i believe as we see more and more challenges, youll spending more on defense. In the nest 4,270 debates, im telling you this is what were going to talk about. We dont have enough aircraft power to project power in southeast asia. We made our army about as lean as it could be. Going into every president ial trip over each other how they need a stronger army, navy, and air force. Its a fact we must accept that stocks will get punished by all what happens with commodities or even the data. Fed wants rates higher. Being overly punished by some sort of mistaken group think. When we see Capital Punishment being meteed out, well point them out before they rebound. Its a harder way to make money, but still a way. Heres the bottom line. Well get through this period like the other 26 times since we bottomed back in 2009. Thats something you can count on. Jay in texas, jay . Caller hey, jim, happy new year, booyah jim bo. Im all over that. Whats going on . Caller my son and myself were longtime followers, first time caller. Im also a and my son goes to with a finance degree. Fantastic. Caller we do some analysis of reading your books, and we have a question on hain celestial. I think the world of simon and hain, but when a company does not deliver the kind of Earnings Growth that the company itself wants, and ifsh irwin simon was disappointed. Disappointed. You have to wait for the next quarter to see if things get better. Its a great longterm investment because of natural and organic, but i cannot be jumping up and down say buy hain he was disappointed on, except for proteal. Alex in ohio . Caller booyah, jim. Booyah, alex. Caller i appreciate you. Im a big fan. I dont know how you do what you do, man. Sure trying. Its a tough day. Caller the question you have is regard to jetblue. Is it a good pickup for the long term . If it were down a couple bucks. The thing has been a horse, an absolute horse, but it hasnt come down enough for me to say i like it more than delta. Ive got to tell you something, i still like southwest more. Jetblue has been a winner, but i can pound the table. Already the market is getting punished for certain, but some stocks are getting overly punished. Its almost like theyre falsely being condemned. Keep an eye on these. They will come back. We always get through it together. Cmon, when have we not . Grubhub is king when it comes to delivers delicious dinners, but the stock seems familiarished to me. Then macys got slammed yet. Im telling you why the bear case extends far beyond the maul. Plus whats next . Can it continue . Eifert the ceo. So stick with cramer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow on twitter, have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Or give us a call. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. The beast was as long as the boat. For seven hours, we did battle. Until i said. You will not beat. Meeeeee greg. What should i do with your fish . Gary. Just put it in the cooler. If youre a fisherman, you tell tales. Its what you do. Fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. Its what you do. Put the fish in the cooler weve got trouble in tummy town. Peptocopter when cold cuts give your belly thunder, pink relief is the first responder, so you can be a business boy wonder weve been changing things up with ky love. Oh yeah. Its a pleasure gel that magnifies both our sensations. It gives us chills in places weve never gotten chills before. Yeah, it makes us feel like. Dare to feel more with new ky love. Americans. 83 try. To eat healthy. Yet up to 90 fall short in getting. Key nutrients from food alone. Lets do more. Add one a day mens. Complete with key nutrients we may need. Plus it helps support healthy Blood Pressure with vitamin d and magnesium. One a day mens. Jill and kate use the same dishwasher. Same detergent. But only jill ends up with wet, spotty glasses. Kate adds finish jetdry with five power actions that dry dishes and prevent spots and film, so all thats left is the shine. For better results, use finish jetdry. Strong hair can do anything just like you strong. Is beautiful pantene choose to move freely. Move free ultra has tripleaction support for your joints, cartilage and bones in one tiny pill. Move free ultra. Get your move on. And now try move free night. The first and only 2in1 joint and sleep supplement. All right. What the heck has happened to grubhub . Heres a company with the number one online food ordering platform, and cant make it through the workweek without using their app to order yourself lunch. When grub hub became public back market went gaga for that stuff. Hallelujah the darling of the highgrowth internet space. We were told they said disruptive technology. Thats transforming long stagnant restaurant takeout businesses. And they transformed the way many of us order food. So much easier to do it online than to pick up the phone, except for here, because we dont let our food travel. So fast forward to today. Alternates more that a year and a half after the ipo, its become a total dog, with a stock thats down more than 30 year to date. 30 . In fact its not trading a couple bucks below the level when, and perilously we need to ask ourselves something has it been punished too much . That its become a relative bargain . Or has the narrative here changed . Making the stock a lot less attractive than people initially thought . Even though its going down, your worst nightmare, youre a value guy . Lets begin at the beginning. All the excite started less than a year before the ipo, when the old that can let you use the web or your phone, to get hundreds of cities nationwide. In addition to the grubhub seamless business, they own dining in and restaurants on the run, local companies it acquired earlier this year, and online repose torrie of is menus. Plus the company has its order hub business, by improving the online ordering and delivers process. When grub hub finally became actually soared 30 . On its first gale of trading, a redhot internet stock. The bull case was pretty straightforward from the getgo. We heard how grub hub was a disruptor in a fragmented industry. The company talked about how its total Addressable Market could be 61 of all restaurants in the u. S. , and given that when grub hub became public, only 5 actually occurred officer the internet . Well, it was pretty natural to assume this would be a very good longterm growth story. At the same time grub hub had all the share in the online delivery business, serving over 30,000 restaurants, 4. 3 million users, numbers that havent only got larger. So back then, they concluded that they had built a defensive, sustainable and increasingly some phenomenal apps, and a big motor around it. Plus like so many other companies, it wasnt hostage to advertising. This wasnt a stock shahhic only judge on page views or eyeballs. The restaurant pays them a commission worst at least 150 . Show higher on the, out of the gate, grub hub average commissions were 14. 2 , the Revenue Growth here looks spectacular, up 85 in the first year it became public. So its no surprise that grub hub worked its way higher, rallying up to 74 when it peakeded. 47, but then we reached late april of 2015, and since then grub hub has plummeted down to where it is now, its almost cut so what exactly went wrong . First of all while its expanding rapidly, its slowed pretty dramatically, and you know how these growth guys hate that. For example, in the last quarter, grub hub 38 Revenue Growth, but still down big from the 47 growth in the previous quarter, not to mention their fabulous 75 growth rate the year before. Thats a major deceleration. Remember, we like accelerating growth, and it makes you thing about most mates or ubereats or even, yes, whoa, amazon might finally be taking a toll on the companys business. Its been trampled by a seemingly endless which came to a real crescendo when the Company Reported a truly disappointing quarter at the end of october. A single session. Wall street is now acting like grub hub is road kill. And at thinks levels, the stock still trades at 23 times next years estimates. Its a reasonable estimate, as long as the estimates dont keep being cut and theres no certainly about that. What was so terrible at the most recent quarter . It missed both the top and bottomline estimates, but also back the company spend these are just 9 headlines. Dig deeper. It starts to look look every aspect of this business is decelerating. Grubhubs take rate, the commission he get from each quarter was supposed to be growing. Lot might approach 20 , but its stuck at the level for ages. What else . The active user base is still growing. Decelerated. It increaseded by 41 , i know, sounds good year other over, down and 46 the quarter before that that should have given the number the boosts, right . You buy more and more business, in absolute terms, expanding a user base, its impressive. Relative to the which is what matters, it is disappointing. Perhaps worst of all, grub hubs daily orders, increased by just 22. 5 , down from 33 . Grubhub can say it was caused by allergy gists, buzz theres a clear trend, showing that grubhubs ground is indeed growing. A nightmare for the owners of the stock, which brings me to the other things that are unnerving investors, grubhub has a plan to reinvigorate its business, and into the delivery take the food themselves rather restaurant. Management indicated theyll be spending 10 to 20 million to build out the delivery capacity next year. Theyre already delivering in 30 markets. With plans to move into 40 more. Theyve been vocal about the lowest delivery foos out there. The economics might be legislate ace tractive that is the easy to understand online ordering biz. And its the only way to fend off the rising competition from the likes of uber and, yes, post this companys earnings, the competition is too steep. When grubhub went public 1 months ago, lets just say there now theres a lot in this Online Food Delivery space. You can see it in the decelerating growth rate. Maybe grubhub can turn things around, but i suggest you wait to see if the growth here can stabilize. At the moment, this former high flyer has now entered the danger zone, making it way too risky for this guy. Weve been more mad money ahead. You thought the issues with macys just impacted the retailers . Wrong. Im telling you what else troubles me. When it comes to ordering popeyes i say treat yourself, but it could also be a treat for your portfolio. I have the ceo, and also homework that could help make you money. Two new names. Stick with cramer. I took mucinex dm for my phlegmy cough. Yeah. But what about mike . It works on his cough too. Cough it works on his cough too. Mucinex dm relieves wet and dry coughs for 12 hours. Lets end this. Im lucky to get through a shift without a disaster. My bargain detergent couldnt keep up. So i switched to tide pods. Theyre super concentrated so i get a better clean. 15 cleaning ingredients or 90 . Dont pay for water, pay for clean. Thats my tide. Weve been changing things up with ky love. Oh yeah. Its a pleasure gel that magnifies both our sensations. It gives us chills in places weve never gotten chills before. Yeah, it makes us feel like. Dare to feel more with new ky love. To truly feel healthy on the outside you have to feel healthy. At your core. Trubiotics a probiotic from one a day naturally helps support both your digestive and immune health by combining. Two types of good bacteria. Trubiotics. Be true to your health. Guys listen up jake, put that down point it at the ground til your ready thats not the ground leo put that down when your day goes on and on, you need 48 hour odor protection that goes on clear for no white marks. Secret outlast clear gel. Jill and kate use the same dishwasher. Same detergent. But only jill ends up with wet, spotty glasses. Kate adds finish jetdry with five power actions so all thats left is the shine. Wills suddenly become again a quandary. Is weighs on this market, and weighing on it hard. We know for months now, perhaps even this entire year, hedge funds which trade a relationships have sold is the stocks, sold them whenever out has plummeted. If oil is going down, the economy is not stroke enough. If the fed tightens well be back in the soup. This is oil as barometer of strength oar weakness dicot mick that kicks in every time oil goes below 45. I have always thought the thesis behind the trade is a tad wrongheaded, because the vast majority, close to 85 are inseriously correlate lated to the price of out. Heres the issue, though, when you see the stock thats about macys or nordstrom get really pummels . Right before your eyes, and they do benefit, you get thrown off. One of the great undercurrents was supposed to be that lower gasoline prices would translate economy. But the delivered says not so fast. That declining gasoline send adding up. Thats what made these last few days so jarring. We know its bad in the real world. Its like attacks. Sure macys and nordstrom got hurt by warm weather, but in the end it doesnt seem toby helping anybody in reality, even though we know in theory it has to be. I guess you could say that cheaper oil has become a pox on both of stock and real world houses. Worse yesterday, the saves grace of oil has that the winners with good Balance Sheets would start scooping up the loser and takeovers, the deal that was on everyones lips was exxon, the biggest would buy anadarko, apc, now that the gulf claims are at last behind anadarko, the Big Oil Spill had acted like a poison pill for this company. Were lots of reports that exxon would strike. Instead we learned one 36hour very strange news cycle that anadarko, again a good company, can approached a rival, apache, with an allstock bid. Felt compelled to issue a release. The result, apaches stock which had spiked on the rumor god crushed on the negative any that anadarko had walked away. Didnt matter. The selling continued. A tough group. Nonjed did we lease the commodity bid, we lost the takeover story. We were in a different posture. Retail clearly not coming through and not gang from oil takeovers. Believe me lower oil is causing a lot of the lower prices you are seeing, so what happens now . What do we want in especialtily if it doesnt seem to be helping anyone, and definitely hinders all the companies that have become public, especially the Master Limited partnerships. Unfortunately the economy doesnt seem Strong Enough to take the oil hi