Stephanopoulos begins now. And we come on the air this week to a major shakeup in the race for the white house, a brandnew poll just released by the Des Moines Register shows ted cruz blowing by donald trump in the key first state of iowa. There you see the numbers. Cruz now at 31 . Ten points ahead of donald trump. The third outsider in this race, dr. Ben carson, falling hard from his firstplace showing in october, he joins us live in a but we begin with more on this stunning poll and a defining karl at the white house. Good morning, jon. Reporter good morning, george. Its just 50 days until the iowa caucuses, and while donald trump still has a commanding lead nationally, ted cruz has the lead in the state that gets to vote first and everywhere else. Is this the week the Republican Party came undone . Reporter on monday, he plan yet. Donald j. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the United States until our countrys representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. Reporter Party Leaders denounced the proposal as not just wrong but unamerican. What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for and, more importantly, its not what this country stands for. Reporter every candidate in the race not named trump opposed the plan. Jeb bush even called trump unhinged. Im not one of these other guys that goes down. I dont go down, i go up. Do you have a warning for gop leaders . I say, folks, you know, im sorry i did this to you. You got to get used to it. Out of iowa shows that senator cruz ten points ahead of trump in the hawkeye state. Cruz was caught on tape obtained caught who am i comfortable having their finger on the button . Now thats a question of question of judgment. Reporter this caused trump to take a subtle swipe at cruz. I do like ted cruz, but not a lot of evangelicals come out of in all fairness. Thats true. Reporter ben carson threatened to leave the party reported that gop leaders discussed whether trump can be stopped at the partys convention. Should be doing anything thats deceptive and under the covers people. Reporter a party in disarray, setting the stage for the last Republican Debate of 2015 in just two days away. Trumps iowa problem has been brewing for some time, back in was in the lead and if you remember, back then, george, trump responded by saying, how stupid are the people in iowa . The voters of the state may not be the best way to win them over. From ann selzer, you have polling in iowa for decades. Your poll has had a strong track record. Have you seen a surge like this . You know, we went and looked back at the last five caucus seen a jump this big, we have never seen a spike like this for a candidate. You know, trump has actually gone up, not just as much as cruz, so cruz is his play nice strategy, is that paying off . What else is behind this surge . Well, the play nice strategy may be paying off, hes also doing the groundwork with the evangelical conservative he got some key endorsements in the past week, and it may be hes that candidate that people look for to coalesce around. You got numbers behind the numbers. They really show how strong ted cruz is doing. Its something called the selzer index. The selzer score. And we created it because the field is so big, but just looking at the horse race didnt give enough information about potential for candidates to get stronger. Than they would appear in that horse race. Ted cruzs number is huge in our selzer score. And what that shows is that, he may not have hit his ceiling yet, there are more upside, more people who would be a good second choice if theyre not his first. And theres a large group of people they would see him supporting that. We add that together with the index, we call that selzer score. What happened to ben carson . Rolled down a hill, it seems, he didnt have a strong debate performance, things turned to foreign policy, hes just not one of the people that people can find a strength to hold on to that makes him stronger than cruz on any of the measures that we took a look at. Okay, an selzer, thank you for coming in this morning. Fascinating poll. Lets go now to dr. Ben carson, he joins us now from florida. Youve seen those poll numbers, what do you think went wrong . Well, you know, poll numbers go up and down. I wasnt excited when theyre up, im not excited when theyre down. You know, this is a very fluid contest and its the reason we have it. We have opportunities for people to listen carefully, you know, not to listen to the spin but actually listen to whats being said. The people will make the correct choice. Ted cruz thinks he knows what went wrong. In that tape we showed in the voters think about you. Lets listen. Who is prepared to be a commanderinchief, who understands the threats we face . Who am i comfortable having their finger on the button . Thats a question of strength but its also a question of judgment and i think thats a question thats a challenging question for both of them. How do you respond to that analysis from ted cruz . Well, you know, we all have had different types of experiences. Theres no question i havent spent a lot of time asking for big money and going to cocktail parties. I spent many a night in the operating room, cold sterile place, with a little childs life on the line. Working very hard to preserve that. Thats a very different kind of experience. Lots of 2 00 a. M. In the morning calls. Do you think thats the parties . I think he has a different experience. Experience, and i have a healers experience. And its a different kind of experience. The fact of the matter is, you know, i have had a lot of experience in corporate america, i have worked with a lot of ceos and one of things that i recognize, a good ceo doesnt necessarily know everything but he gets a lot of people around him he has a Vice President of hr, of finance, of mergers and acquisitions, et cetera, and uses them in an appropriate way. Theres no way i or anyone else running is an expert in every area. But do you know how to use the people around you . Do you have wisdom and judgment . That is demonstrated by the life that you have led. You know, you have been making that point for several weeks, it doesnt seem to be working. Your poll numbers continue to fall. Are you going to have to try Something Different . Will determine at some point, do we want to continue down the road that we have been going down for a long period of time . Or, are we going to stop in you have know, when it coms to experience in congress, you got almost 9,000 years worth of it, correct answer at least that kind of experience. You know, you had some strong words for Party Leaders responding to that story that jon karl mentioned, to stop you and you then put out a statement saying, if this was a beginning of a plan to subvert the will of voters and replace it with the will of the political elite, i assure you only one leaving the party. One of the reasons i got into tired of back room deals, of dishonesty, and you know, if thats the case, you know, im out of here. I have subsequently spoken to reince preibus. We told me those are routine meetings. But, you know, the jury is out. Well be keeping a close eye on things. Lot of reaction to Donald Trumps comments about barring husband lims entry to america. Marco rubio called it offensive. Jeb bush said trump appeared unhinged. Did you find these comments offensive . Well, those are probably not comments i would have used. I understand the concept of, you know, not letting people in until they are well screened. I just wouldnt do on the basis of religion. But it makes absolutely perfect sense for us to start doing something now and not just let people in, you know, this whole come here, they wanted to be resettled in their own country, and there are adequate ways to do that and take care of them in jordan. If we needed to take them, that would be a different story. Theres millions of them. Thats just a bandaid to make some people feel good. But your campaign has some inconsistent statements on this broader issue. On monday, put out a statement, every visiting our country should register and be monitor during their stay. On tuesday, you told cnn, that idea is ridiculous. Do you understand how that flip in 24 hours might give voters pause . Its not a flip. Because you have to listen to what i said when i talked about monitoring. What i said is, when i go into another country, they want to know where im going, what address im going to be staying at, how long im going to be following them around with the fbi. You just want them to lay out their itinerary . Able to find them. We should know what theyre doing here. But wont a terrorist just well, again, were going to have to be a little smarter. I mean, you probably have seen some of the questions they ask in the screening. Have you been a terrorist or are you planning a terrorist attack . Give me a break, why dont we go to israelis and ask them how they do it. Why do we have to reinvent the wheel . You have said that islam is not consistent with the constitution, what do you mean by that . If you accept all the premises, including sharia, which places other religions in a subservient position, which imposes things like death on with the american constitution. So, if somebody believes in islam and theyre willing to reject those portions openly, i dont have a problem with that. But if theyre not willing to reject them, then its not consistent with what were doing here, and all you have to do is go back to the Holy Land Foundation trial and look at the Explanatory Memorandum that was brought up there that shows the the Muslim Brotherhood in this stuff. Dr. Carson, thank you very coming up our powerhouse roundtable weighs in on the ted cruzs surge and why countries around the globe are voting for pop lists like trump. After that, the firstever global deal on Climate Change. Up next. This week with George Stephanopoulos brought to you by pacific life. For life insurance, annuities and investments, choose pacific life. The power to help you succeed. And the big milestones. And just like im there for her, pacific life is there to help protect me and my family so i can enjoy all lifes moments. Pacific life. 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Rnot being on this phone call sounds good. It s not muted. Was that you jason . It was geoffrey it was jason. It could the artificial heart, electric guitars p its the story of america land of the doers. Doin it. Did it. Done. Doers built this country. A steel drivin man p they built the golden gates and the empire states. Pand all this doin takes energy no matter whos doin. R theres all kinds of doin up in here. Or what theyre doin. What the hecks he doin . And its our job to to keep doers doin the stuff doers do. To keep us all doin what we do. R man sternly where do you think youre going . Mr. Mucus to work, with you. Its taco tuesday. Man youre not coming. I took mucinex to helppget rid of my mucusy congestion. Od all day. Mucinex keeps working. Not 4, not 6, but 12 hours. History made in paris yesterday, as nearly 200 nations approved the first global agreement on Climate Change. The paris accord will limit temperature increases and the consequences by curbing Greenhouse Gas emissions. Cutting the useover fossil fuels. President obama gave the agreement an emphatic endorsement in a rare saturday evening statement from the white house. The targets we set are bold scientists, engineers, workers and the private sector, investors to work together, this agreement represents the best chance we have to save the one planet weve got. And were joined by obamas chief negotiator, the secretary of state john kerry. Mr. Secretary, thank you for joining us. Pretty remarkable to get 195 nations to agree on anything, but the agreement has some significant critics, too, the nasa scientist many see the godfather of the movement. He said this guardian. He said itss a fraud, really, a fake, its just worthless words. Theres not action, just promises. Your reaction. Look, i have Great Respect for him. I was there when he first warned everyone that Climate Change was happening. But with all due respect to him, i understand the criticisms of the agreement, because it doesnt have the mandatory scheme and it doesnt have a compliance enforcement thats true. But we have 186 countries for the first time in history all submitting independent plans that they have laid down which are real for reducing emissions. And what it does in my judgment, more than anything else, there is a uniform standard of transparency. And therefore, we will know what everybody is doing. A very clear signal to marketplace of the world that people are moving into lowcarbon, nocarbon alternative, renewable energy. I think its going to create millions of jobs. Solutions, not government. As you know, there are no its not legally binding in part because the u. S. Couldnt get a treaty through in the senate. And Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell has weighed in quite strongly already. He said, before the International Partners pop the champagne, they unattainable deal based on Domestic Energy plan thats likely illegal, that half the states have sued to halt and that the congress has already voted to reject. Can this deal actually be implemented absence a consequence in the United States . There is a consensus in the United States, among the people and among mayors across the nation, many of whom, those all of them who have joined the mayors conference with respect to climate reductions, and the america has already reduced its emissions more than any other country in the world and it has done so through various means by raising the efficiency standards on automobiles, by engaging in r and d and deployment of new technologies and the president has made it very, very clear that hes committed to this and this agreement really came about significantly due to american engaging with china, coming to an agreement with the two largest economies. The two largest emitters saying they were going to join together to put out their reductions and that spurred 184 other countries to step up. So, this is significant. I mean, what do members of congress think when leaders of major countries around the world are actually stepping up to do these things . These are not mr. Secretary these guys arent making up the science or the plans to do it. And i think, i think, frankly, a lot of members of congress are on the wrong side of history. And i dont believe you can be elected president of the United States if you dont understand Climate Change or youre not committed to this kind of a plan. Well, thats what i wanted to get to. Most of the republicans running for president said they wouldnt ae tend the paris talks and many president s to have the ability by executive order to undo things, the answer is yes, thats why i dont believe the American People who predominantly believe whats happening with Climate Change, i dont think theyre going to accept as a genuine leader someone who doesnt understand the science of Climate Change. You know, we had eight storms last year which cost america well more than a billion dollars per storm, its far cheaper to recognize whats coming and cure the problem ahead of time. Finally, mr. Secretary, Donald Trumps comments about banning muslims entry in the United States. How have his comments affected americas standard around the world . Well, it doesnt endanger because it exhibits an attitude by one american about a willingness to discriminate against a religion. I mean, that is against our constitution and its against who we are as americans. We have all kinds of ways of putting protections in to the programs by which people come into our nation. But to outright ban people because they belong to one particular religion, thats just stunningly contrary to the country, which was built on tolerance. Where the president speaks from to deliver the state of union, inscribed in the panel is tolerance, and it seems to me that mr. Trump is totally without recognition of the true american spirit and values, and certainly toler