Its to balance growth versus inflation in many categories. Ben burnankes fed spoke with one voice. The fed under janet yellen has left the course since that first rate increase to go to a lock step series of hikes. And that change has been accompanied by a cacophony of fed voices rooting for still higher rates or poohpoohing them. You figure it out, i cant. We have to have some changes here. One, the fed must know its own strength and recognize that when it talks endlessly about hikes, its freezing the Business World and creating tremendous uncertainty because people think, how can that possibly be, how can they know that much . Because they dont. Far better for the fed to say, and i quote, we have put through an increase and since then seen commodity deflation and a slowdown in wage growth so we must monitor these before we that means we need to get off a timetable and go back to being data dependent. That would in itself cause a tradeable bottom, at least. This change is so important because right now we have a climate of fear and uncertainty which is not conducive to any kind of investment, business, stocks or otherwise. Yellen needs to lay down the law and say, when you become a fed governor or president , you cannot speak about fed policy because it leads to tremendous confusion. The can a could have annie must end and the bit players must offer a polite no conference when asked. Theres no freelancing among the president s cabinet, there shouldnt be among the fed either. The fed needs to adjust its inputs for what i call the amazonization of the american economy. Temporary analysis of the decline in commodities like oil. Theres an unrecognized structural change in all these Commodity Markets thats been going on and the fed is ignoring it. Oil is not done going down. Second big picture item on the checklist, the Political Uncertainty must resolve itself. Its going to take some time here. Right now the Democratic Front runner is being challenged by an ultraliberal senator. Today she talked about a rich person surcharge. The republican frontrunner, while very wealthy, is very antagonistic to wall street and the wealth created by it. Theyre poised to make the situation uglier. Domestic politics are capital preservation. Third big picture item, china has got to become more of a positive, anywhere, any part of it, any line item. China needs to clean up its act with the government becoming more transparent and the stock market more stable or at least honest and working. Right now the Chinese Communist party is empirically judging by traditional commodity inputs doing nothing meaningful to stimulate the economy or reform the recession. All attempts to make china serve its economy well are being undone by amateurs and officials trying to manage the stock market. The chinese are trying to manage a bubble of massive proportions by encouraging individuals to open a plethora of accounts. Until the bubble is officially burst and the shanghai composite gives up 33 of its gains, right was in 2014 when the bubble began, the chinese stock market is not to be trusted by you. The phony shanghai 3,000 line in the sand has no bearing whatever and is totally a function of restricted selling and government buying. Something thats eating up chinas reserves at a rapid pace. One look at the index tells you about the absurdity of its current inflated price. Let them flow free using rules similar to what the sec developed. Let the chips fall, even if it means some investors get hurt. Only then will both bargains and credibility be restored, which would mean we could stop focusing on a stock market that we all viewed as irrelevant until roughly 18 months ago. Fourth, commodities have got to stop going down, commodities. Its created imbalances around the world. Aluminum remain in free fall, because china is no longer taking any of them. Its decimating whole companies. Think everyone from caterpillar to u. S. Steel to entire countries like brazil. We have to be concerned about everything from too much countries failing to too Many Companies including alcoa, sold to you. Here is the bottom line. Before this market can bottom, a number of things need to change, including the federal reserves stance on the need for more rate hikes, and a bottom in all of the free falling commodities out there. These points present some of the biggest set ups. Ralph. Caller jim, what would you think about Shell Oil Company for a very young investors . I think it would be wrong. Young investors should be look at these companies that are high growth, that are now right on their butt because everyone hates high growth. When you get involved in a long term fossil fuel situation, youll regret it. Fossil fuels will look like tobacco 20 years ago. Barbara. Caller hi, jim. I recent bought 600 shares of new York Community bancorp. I noticed today it was trading around 15. 30. Should i buy more at this low price, hold on to it, or possibly sell some or all of it, or maybe you have a better recommendation. I think youre fine. I want you to stop looking at it day to day like that. Youre down very little. This is a long term game, this and i think that new York Community bank is doing fine. If the fed raises rates like they keep claiming theyll do, that stock will go to 20. Thank you for the call. Paul in florida. Paul. Caller hi. I recently bought Stanley Black decker for 107 based on the projected strong housing sector in 2016. With the stock markets apparent free fall, and if Interest Rates go up again, im concerned the stock will fall further. Should i just hold on, buy more, or take my losses . It has fallen further. Ive been buying it for my travel trust. One of these big gaps down, we buy a little. Why . Because home depot has said that business is strong. Theyve got a nice turn going on in europe. Its inexpensive stock. Does that mean it bottoms in 96 . I dont know. Try to build a position in the company. Its more valuable than what its selling for. That need to happen before a lasting bottom. My hunt for a bottom continues. Dont miss the second half of my checklist including how some of last years wall street winners factor in to making money. Then what becomes of the broken hard, or in this case broken momentum stock when i examine under armour. People are already hating alcoa. What else is new . Stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. The leading cough liquid only provides relief for four hours, but did you know theres a product that lasts for twelve hours . 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Thats why he starts his day with those two scoops in heart healthy kelloggs raisin bran. Ready to eat my dust . Too bad i already filled up on raisins. Kelloggs raisin bran. Deliciously heart healthy. Stress sweat. It can happen anytime to anyone. Stress sweat is different than ordinary sweat, it smells worse. Get 4 times the protection against stress sweat. With secret clinical strength invisible solid and clear gel. When cigarette cravings hit, all i can think about is getting relief. Only nicorette mini has a patented fastdissolving formula. It starts to relieve sudden cravings fast. I never know when ill need relief. What needs to happen before we can stop being terrified of this market and start making some money . Ive already told you, along with the vicious pain in china and free fall in oil commodities, thats just the tip of the iceberg. More things need to happen. Fifth box that needs to be checked, really important, we need oil, which got obliterated again today, to stop going down. I dont see it down in sight here. My friend who wrote the domino effect makes it clear that its unimaginable if the Current Situation doesnt change. He thought the marginal producers in the u. S. Would have stopped their production by now. It turned out not to be the case. Banks forgave domestic customers. Cost of drilling came down and production has only just now started to peak, something that every single prognosticator failed to anticipate. Brazil pretty much pioneered the lower longer thesis, that oil prices would stay low for a long time. He threw cold water on the u bottom, the v bottom, the w bottom. Hes quick to criticize those it seems pretty farfetched to rusty. That means many bankruptcy and reorganizations must occur. Youll see some Big Companies that well talk about in a second really i think lets just say they wont look like they do now. Im worried about them. Im also worried about a host of smaller players in many of the Pipeline Companies who may have a hard time paying their debts out of depleted cash flow. It all comes due in 2016 if oil doesnt stop going down, and i dont think it will, unless theres a crisis in the middle east. The entire fossil fuel complex is under financial attack. There will be many failures before the whole market can stabilize. The big consumers of energy will profit. For the moment, the positives simply dont matter. Sixth, the world seems very unstable. North korea is doing more than just saberrattling. States. Saudi arabia has broken off relations with iran. The fight between the west and russia has not been resolved and puts a damper on growth in either region. Britain is debating whether to pull out of the eu. The Immigration Crisis in europe is nowhere near resolution. There are Armed Conflicts going on all over the place like the saudiyemen war that arent even being covered. And dont even get me started on iraq and afghanistan. This is not a world that makes you want to invest. Seven, we need all these brain dead Zombie Companies out, put to death. When it happens, their bonds will crater, not just their stocks. Of bad debt. So are chesapeake and freeport. These are the kind of situations that will reopen the notion of Systemic Risk. I dont see Systemic Risk in this country. But until we bake in that kind of talk, we will not get the advance. Number 8, the dollar needs to stop going higher. Were about to enter another earnings season where once again well hear that the super freaking strong dollar wrecked economies. The currencies of developing countries, have you seen the riyal . Just like 97, 98. Until the dollar gets weaker were unlikely to see stabilization. The fed should be taking this into account but at the moment it only seems to care about employment. Healthy merger market. Last year may have been the peak in m a activity. But that doesnt mean there cant be more deals. One look at the last few transactions, all of which have led to lower prices for both the targets and the acquirers, including todays deal with shire pharma, shows how sick this market has become. Thats got to stop. 10, a return to healthy ipo market. Right now we have no functioning market whatsoever to allow many of the private equity deals to come to the market or reliquify their Balance Sheets before we go into a recession. Plus we have all these shaved unicorns that havent had a chance to go public because they wouldnt want to embarrass their Venture Capital investors. Its a disaster for Capital Appreciation. 11, the autos are in the high they peaked at a good level. Many of the stocks of the sector not yet reflecting what may be a precipitous fall thanks in part to the fed tightening. It isnt some abstraction, people. Housing stocks are demonstrate ing pornographic drops, cant even look at it. A nice little burst by apple, every dog is getting its day. I like apple. While these stocks are cheap, no stock can stand an onslaught of number cutting. Interest rates seem to go higher because of a lack of demand of money, putting the kibosh on the hope that banks will rally. Last week the retailers and restaurants have been trying to rally and failing. We need more sectors to return given the piece i just outlined. Right now the charts are disaster, although a spike like we had at the end of the day cant be ruled out, but youll have to sell the spike, not buy it. We need to see an end, for f. A. N. G. Facebook, amazon, netflix, and google to give up the ghost. Big gains in these, dont want to take them. These companies are doing very well but their stocks reflect too much optimism. I know people say, thanks, cramer, you told me to buy it. Not true. I did at one point but not since the fed started raising. Get it together, will you . Finally, west a tradeable bottom this fall when the bears dramatically outnumber the bulls. That stopped when the bears were driven out right up until the end of last year. Were paying for that hangover. The beginning of 2016 has seen a rapid change of sentiment. Of settlement. We didnt have that washout. All but the most valueoriented buyers, we havent seen that capitulation either. You need to see capitulation. The bottom line, many of these issues on the checklist must be resolved before we can be more concerned about making money rather than losing money. I wish it were more simple. I wish it were happier. There will be pockets of opportunities as always and ill highlight them for you. They will be fewer and far between without more boxes checked and fears quelled by facts, not fantasy. Much more mad money ahead. Under armour fell nearby 7 , the opposite of lululemon. Does it have the endurance to get back up . How about alcoa, down 20 since the new year . You know thats going to go lower. Lets speak to the ceo anyway. Im not border. The healthcare sector has been down seven of the past eight days. Why dont we speak to the ceo. What becomes of the broken hearted momentum stock, one that had love thats now departed . I have to find some peace of mind. I recognize they werent singing crooned those lyrics, but every day the heartache grows a little stronger and the owners cant stand the pain much longer. That actually does describe the situation owners of under armour find themselves in. Morgan stanley slapped a sell on it. A sell the worst thing you can do to a stock the ultimate insult but the sell call had a little bit of rigor to it. Declining share and average selling price a dual threat. Downgrade to underweight. Keep in mind that premium valuation. Multiple counts. One, data indicates near term earnings uncertainty is about more than just the weather. Morgan stanley contends prices are being cut, particularly in marketing push. Footwear is down 20 , even though the industry is only off 4 . Morgan stanley by implication is saying, they cant compete on price. Maybe they cant compete with nike at their own game. Third, estimates are too high. Theyre down to 23 and 21 for sales and earnings. Brokerage is slashing its price target of underwar more from 103 to 62. 62 what a switch. No wonder the stock was down about five bucks today. Wait a second, you mean all these analysts did was cut the growth rate by a couple of Percentage Points . Tremendous sales and earnings quotes. Not the company which is fabulous, a fabulous company, its under armour the stock which has valuation issues. Even after the severe decline, the stock is not traditionally cheap, selling at roughly 43 times next years numbers. The average stock is 17 times earnings. Under armour again is no average company. Its a superior company with superior attitude and state of mind. It is so good in so many ways that its difficult to imagine this one is anything other than an engine, a fount, of fabulous competitive products. I wear beautiful button down ua shirt to a party on friday. I wore my under armour pants this morning. Dont even try to take that stuff away from me. Companies have a history of relentlessly causing analyses to raise their numbers. Once the spell is broken and the people believe the growth is decelerating, momentum buyers flee because they have no idea how to value a stock with declining growth rate. Not as fast. Ive always regarded under armour as a Technology Company that happens to sell apparel. The Fitness Group has a whole ecosystem devoted to it which took on plenty of awards for wearables at the Consumer Electronics show last week. This companys tech edge makes it a dominant force. Thats not reflected nearly enough in the Morgan Stanley report. But to momentum investors it means nothing. They like to buy stocks with accelerating revenue growth. They will flock to lululemon which just preannounced a surprise, even as lululemon cannot hold a candle to under armour when it comes to innovation or technology. What could stop the brutal decline . If under armour can savage those estimates, the slashed ones, in reports later this month, it can break the downward trajectory. Walking this land of broken momentum, stocks at least, where sadly, happiness is just an illusion filled with sadness and confusion. Until this company can beat the numbers, the stock wont bottom until its genuinely cheap, and it wont be genuinely cheap until george in texas. George . Caller jim, thanks for all that you do. Im watching sketchers, im wondering if you still like it. Yeah, i like sketchers. But we always have to understand what kind of market were in. Were in a market where sketch certificates a speculative stock, therefore you put it away and recognize were in a market which is absolutely in bear mode, a ridiculous market for even the best companies, and sketchers is one of the best. So we can judge the compan