>> >> >> >> good afternoon and welcome to the city and school district select meeting on october 22nd. i want to recognize members here today. we have commissioner haney and walton. supervisor david campos will be joining us shortly. i want to recognize or clerk today derek evans and our staff at sf gov tv who make our meetings available in transcript. >> please call the first item. city clerk: [hearing - free muni for youth program] sponsor: kim hearing regarding updates on the free muni for youth program; and requesting the san francisco municipal transportation agency to report sf 11234 >>supervisor jane kim: thank you. i do want to recognize supervisor cohen who will make comments after the presentation. i do want to recognize candice sue. thank you for being here. >> thank you, supervisor kim. members of the joint city school select meeting. candice from the san francisco transportation agency. they four allowing me to be here to report on the low income moderate yutsd around here we are here to update you and as the distinguished record of having processed most of the thousands of applications that came here and there is so much to say since the program has launched. i want to talk about a few accomplishments since our last report. two informations. sf mta had a lot of opportunities to coordinate and better our efforts since our last presentation. we have since begun meeting on a monthly basis with the school district in a committee that looks at the 20 or so intersections between sfusd and sf mta. because of that, we've been able to better coordinate on a number of issues that are planning and operational things from muni school tripers and the times they start and arrive at each school as the crossing guards and where they are placed as well as parking and curb space. many thanks due to the presentations at this committee, we've been able to look at that and start to coordinate more effectively. it still a work in progress of course but i think we are in the right track and many thanks to nick casner and anna velazquez who is at the department of public health who are helping with that coordination effort. another item that we became aware of. on october 10th governor brown signed into law that decriminalize youth derivation that allows sf mta to -- through the juvenile court system. this following the success of free muni for youth program. so one of the goals as you will see of the free muni for yutsd -- youth program was to eliminate the fear among riding transit. and it was important for us as an agency to tie in in dedecriminalization of this program. this bill also defines noise violation and infraction and allows for if we choose to do so to have an infraction for failing to yield to elderly and disabled passengers. i will also note that it bill is carried by the san francisco transit association and by the yutsd commission and proud to have received a letter of approval from the school district. we want to make sure you are updated on that. now i would like to introduce emmett nelson. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you for being here. >> good afternoon, as candice said i'm emmett nelson, the program manager for sf mta muni program. it's an honor to be here today to present this program. this program provides free muni access to low and moderate income youth to san francisco. when the program was initially passed, it covered youth ages 5-17 and this year expanding to include 18-year-olds as well as sf usd learning programs for ages 9-22 and for all students enrolled in the school district. the pass is a one time pass loaded onto a clipper card. it's not a monthly card, it's a one time pass that we load on the card for youth that they can ride until they are 19. it's a nice thing not to have to load it every month. it doesn't make the youth have to remember to upload their pass every month. it's available only to san francisco residents. this is one of the strict issues from the get-go and it only applies to households that are making at or below 100% of the bay area need income level. it's a family of four making under $105,000 a year, then the kids qualify for the program. the initial goals of the program were to first and foremost to increase transit ridership in the city and to get them to school. we heard from surveys early on that a fare to get to school was often a barrier to getting to school in the morning. that was one of the big programs boost to get kids to school. as candice stated was to eliminate the fear and stigma and to incentivize families who are in the city to remain in the city. if everybody can get their kids to school, then they are going to stay here longer. i will briefly go through this but you know the application process. we send out a clipper card to youth if they don't already have one. then they load the pass on the clipper card. they can fill out by mail or online. we process the application within 4 weeks. the school districts our team did a survey of about 6,000 students to capture what people's idea of riding muni was from before riding the pass to the difference between the students that have the pass to not having the free passch . we have a few responses here. the main point that youth with muni pass have a better overall experience on muni compared to the kids not currently using the free pass. this is the slide that we've been using quite a bit to show the bus line for students using the free pass which pretty much covers the entire city. a lot of kids do transfer on the way home but these are the ten most popular bus lines for free muni. as far as participants it's been a successful program from students ages 5-17 and around 700 for the special program, the 19-22-year-old and enrolled in the special sf programs. >>supervisor jane kim: just to ask a quick question, this is a second year of the program? >> about the third year now. >> are we seeing 18 crease -- an increase in the number of participation? >> it's remained static for the last year when kids turn 18. we see a dip in the beginning of the school year and it drops off when people can't use the pass and we can't figure that out. it's remained stagnant for the last year. >>supervisor norman yee: just really quickly. is there any way to measure or collect information about -- you have individual participants. but do you know how many times they actually use it? >> we can get down to every use of clipper card. i have the average tag per day per youth and we can even go down by zip code for those types of things. i don't have that today but i can get you those late. >> this slide shows the zip code breakdown. the trend is mostly the same. most kids are using the program in the western and southeastern neighborhoods. in this slide shows the last 12 months of ridership data for the youth using the free pass. during the school year months we see about 600,000 tags per month which come out to roughly 20,000 average daily tags. we are seeing between 8-12 individual riding everyday. they are using it for transfers and using it very well. as i stated, we can provide data based on zip codes for this as well. >>supervisor norman yee: what would be interesting for the 3 years that we've had it to look at the comparison sons of the years also. >> yeah. for the first 6-8 months we didn't have this data capability. the trend you see here is pretty much what's been going on for the last 2 years. the ridership remains during the high peak during the school year and down during the summer, about 30% because the kids aren't guaranteed to be making those trips everyday. the free muni program does everything to tie into the sf mta and looking to increase services to the 140,000 customers and focused on 7% of all the riders in the city and their increase in services will also encapsulate the students who will ride more effectively. we are adding more vehicles to help us relieve those issues and get kids to school and getting there on time. over all we feel it's been a great success. it's fun to work on and it's grown to include seniors with disabilities. it's been a great boost for the city and residents to reach their destinations. any questions i'm happy to answer. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, mr. nelson. this is exactly the type of data we want to see. it's great to see the actual ridership. surveys that were done with the youth to see such high numbers and what they are able to experience on muni and feel like they are being treated with respect riding muni. i think this is really good data and to see what lines the youth are riding on. i think that's based on the tags? >> yes. we have gps data point and bus line data point. >> you can tell where they are getting tagged and how often they are being used. >> we can at least see where they are getting on. >> i think it's great we can collect that type of level of data and see where the ridership is. one other thing to note on average per card is the an average of two times per day. >> it's 2.2 per card. probably someone transferring. >> interesting data. we do have a couple of comments from commissioners starting with supervisor yee. >>supervisor norman yee: thanks for the presentation. it's great to see so many kids are using this. i guess the 2.2 is a good thing meaning they leave home, go to school. they leave school and go home. [ laughter ] if it was like four or five, you might wonder where they are going. it seems you have made improvements with the program. going forward, are there other programs that you are anticipating that you would like to do or see from the survey are there any occasions on how to improve it? >> we are continuing to work with community outreach groups to meet families who maybe missed the program. i know every student at the school district receives an application but that could be lost on the way home. this program is available to help you and this is a service you should be taking advantage of. >> i'm just curious is the outreach effort similar to public schools and private schools? >> we are a little bit more ingrained in the public schools. >> i have more questions after you finish your review. >>supervisor jane kim: great, commissioner fewer? >> yes. thank you, supervisor kim. this is great. i love to see this kind of data. when we first started we were a little concerned about how we maybe implementing this and will students use this. it seems to be taking off and it's successful. i'm wondering if our liaison if you wouldn't mind sending a copy of this to every board member so they are updated on free muni for youth. thank you very much. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you very much commissioner fewer, commissioner haney? >> i would like to say how excited i am to see so many yutsd youth for taking advantage of this. i had a couple questions. part of it was answered from supervisor yee's questions. i wonder if you have a way to assess the level of saturation at individual schools or cross-referenced data at the individual schools to say this is a percentage of an individual school utilizing it and high schools and the buses with specific schools and a particular time and a name if it was referenced for those. how are those decided on in terms of which schools receive those and what sort of data do you rely on to make a determination that you are going to develop one of those more specific direct routes for an individual school because i see them at some schools and not at others. and lastly we just introduced a resolution recently at the school district that will be working it's way through the process through equitable and sustainable transportation a lot of it around walking and biking and reference around public transportation and extending safe routes to schools to all of our schools. we hope to be working closely in collaboration even more with that policy. >> most definitely. the buses that are hitting the schools that are more congested, i don't have that right now but i can get that to you. it's i'm sure survey data on the ground to see how those buses are and to get more buses out there. but i can get more information for you on that. as far as the school data, schools were self reported on the part of applications. we have quite a bit of information on each of the riders but not every participant report the school they attend. we have 60% of participants and what school they use and their date of birth. we can certainly use that data to try to make some effort with the school district to see what the saturation has been at schools. it's something we haven't done yet but we can do. >> is that something you can share? >> that's pretty easy data. i can share that from the students that are enrolled in school. >>supervisor jane kim: i know at some point i heard this from some of the school board members because of the general increase in congestion throughout the city primarily with additional drivers on the street that we are hearing that more and more students and families are not making it to school on time due to traffic. that's not an issue limited to muni per say but just a larger conversation piece citywide on what we can do and the morning for grid lock hours. certainly not up for discussion today but something i have heard anecdotally from school board and principals. >>supervisor norman yee: to follow up? >> okay. supervisor yee. i will just call on you all the time. >>supervisor norman yee: commissioner asked about synchronizing buses and so forth. i would like to get a report in terms of update, how we are doing with that. there are lines that come up pretty frequently and there are lines that don't come up frequently. those are the ones that i would like to have some focus on to make sure they are synced up so a student doesn't have to wait around for 25 minutes. a comment about one of the benefits of this program and at least -- leads into our next discussion that motivates families to continue to stay in san francisco and it's a big issue for many of us on the board of supervisors to the try to keep people in san francisco because as you know san francisco has the lowest school population than anywhere in the united states. it's how to provide transportation and build housing for families. thank you for pointing that out. as another thing i can say to families. we have free muni. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, supervisor campos. >>supervisor david campos: i will be very brief and i apologize for being late. i was at an mtc meeting and part of that for making it possible and it's exciting that after all these years and all the effort that went into it, very severe treatment for members for the board of supervisors that we managed to get this through. what i was concerned about commissioner haney talking about people being late or students being late to school because of what's happening with congestion. i hope that's something that is discussed as the mta moves forward on the continuation of the text shuttle program. it's one of the reasons we should explore for modifying that pilot so these tech buses come to some specific hubs in the out skirts of the city close to bart or certain areas to avoid or minimize some of the implications on traffic. so i think that's something i would like to learn more about what the data shows in terms of how kid are being impacted by traffic and you know tardiness to school being one of those factors. i don't know if mta, what data is being collected around that and i know you meet monthly with the school district but having that information would be very helpful. >> i will look into it and get information back to you. >> lastly we have sheila back in my office and she made this happen. sheila, look at what you started. thank you. >>supervisor jane kim: we did a big shout out to your office before you got here and acknowledging and ensuring that this is something for our family and youth and proud of something we invested in and to provide muni service for our youth to get to school. at this time i'm going to open for public comment on this item. i have three speaker cards. i have alexandra and walter and elizabeth james. if you want to speak, please lineup on the right side of the chamber. please come up. no specific order. public speaker: i go to sf state. and i think this program is a really good idea and it's obviously done a lot of good for the youth. i think if this can be extended to college students can also be useful because the state is a really big commuter school and those kids that don't have the cash, they don't want to pay the cost today and that leads to emissions from cars and traffic. i think that can be a useful thing. >> thank you very much. public speaker: hi. i'm going to piggy back on what she said. there are so many students in college don't make it to class because it's something else they can't afford. this program if we are able to expand it so more students are able to get to class, i think that's super beneficial or even having a reduced rate because more people are finding it more valuable to drive their cars but that's more emissions. we should cut down more and that would really really help and it will reduce the traffic and as you are talking about the grid lock and all of these cars, it would reduce that so much. if you go to sf state, the parking lots are loaded and the entire community is inundated with cars. that would be something to look into. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you. public speaker: good afternoon, board. and mustang muni won't you slow that bus drive down. mustang muni won't you slow that bus on down. you've been riding all over town. want you to bring the price down. you bought some brand new bus some that are mighty in drive. mustang bus now. mustang muni. won't you bring that price on down. you've been riding all over town. you will get a big free youth thank you from every district in line in town. free wheels on the muni keep on turning. and know that you are really yearning. free wheels on the muni keep on turning. and we are really you are going to be really learning. and thank you. thank you so much. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, mr. paulson. at this time i see no other speakers on this item. is there any additional public comment? seeing none, public comment is closed. supervisor david campos? >>supervisor david campos: i just want to thank you madam chair. to the students that spoke about expanding this to college students whether it's community college, sf state, i do think that's something that's really worth exploring. i know it's actually something that came up in the initial discussion around free muni for youth. and to the credit of many of the college students that came and spoke to us about that. they decided it was better for them to hold off on pushing for that because they did not want to undermine the success for the muni program for youth because it was facing that battle at that point. it's time to extend it and i certainly look forward to repeating out to you and working with any of my colleagues, members of the board of supervisors and board of education to make that happen. hey, look at all the money that air b & b spent on their ads. that could be for free muni for college kids from san francisco. i think it's worth noting. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, supervisor campos. i think it's noted that youth start paying those taxes. i'm glad people are paying the revenue to the city that goes back to our infrastructure. seeing no further comments from board members, i will entertain a motion to continue this to the call of the chair for further information. without objection we'll take that. thank you. please call item no. 2. city clerk: [hearing - city's policies for planning for new student enrollment due to increased residential development] sponsor: kim hearing requesting presentations from the san francisco unified school district, planning department, and controller's office on residential development pipeline projections, enrollment projections, and related educational and school infrastructure needed to accommodate new student enrollment due to increased residential developmencity clerk: [hearing - city's policies for planning for new student enrollment due to increased residential development] sponsor: kim hearing requesting presentations from the san francisco unified school district, planning department, and controller's office on residential development pipeline projections, enrollment projections, and related educational and school infrastructure needed to accommodate new student enrollment due to increased city clerk: [hearing - city's policies for planning for new student enrollment due to increased residential development] sponsor: kim hearing requesting presentations from the san francisco unified school district, planning department, and controller's office on residential development pipeline projections, enrollment projections, and related educational and school infrastructure needed to accommodate new student enrollment due to increased residential developmen >>supervisor jane kim: 1234 thank you. this is an item talking about the increase with population growth the school district is also beginning to have conversation about what this might mean for kindergarten enrollment in particular. it's very exciting to have this conversation. having circumstantial -- served on the board of education with supervisor yee and supervisor campos when he served on the council and we sat here during many heartbreaking meetings because of declining student enrollment and the cuts to the state budget. so now, 10 years later to have these conversations about opening these schools because we have a growing interest in attending public schools and congratulations for growing enrollment and b because the population is rapidly growing in san francisco and particular in the district where i represent where our population grew to 25,000 residents. it's nice to have a conversation about what it might mean to grow. over the past year along with commissioner mendoza who also serves at the mayor's office, sf city has been sitting down with the planning department to better coordinate on housing projection growth that the planning department approves on weekly basis occurring at the time. to also help the school district in growing and projecting in their own student population. so, today's hearing is about these enrollment productions and the data collected for the last couple of years along with the meeting that's being convened between the city and the school district. in interest specific to the district that i represent of course is the conversation around building a new elementary school which is incredibly exciting in mission bay. this was a commitment by the city back in the late 1990s that as we build a completely new neighborhood and we roll out a part of the city, residents that we needed to ensure streets and roads to muni and also schools exist for these new families. supervisor yee also represents another major project in park merced which will be developing over time and another project in the shipyard as well. this is the time to learn more about that work and gain conversation about a school that has been in the making for years. i know we have marlow keith to present. before that, do we have any commissioner staff who want to make a comment? supervisor yee? >>supervisor norman yee: i just want to thank supervisor kim for bringing this particular matter to this committee. there is going to be a lot of growth and then we have a combination of population growth with some work that's being done at the city level pushing some serious discussion about how we can create family housing in our newer high rises which means there is a possibility that a percentage of families in the city will be higher. when you look as supervisor kim mentioned the potential growth in some of these developments which seem to be in my neighborhood where the growth will definitely attract more families than other districts. it's going up from 8,000 people to when they build everything out, it will be 25,000 people living there. meaning it's almost like a little town and i haven't heard of any discussion about where we are going to put the kids in terms of going to school. we are talking about other projects within my own district, in district 7. we are talking about balboa reservoir that could put another 700 units. it's going to be heavily concentrated on family housing. so this is the right time. we need to get ahead of the curb and i'm glad we are talking about mission bay. i believe the mission bay discussion in setting aside the plot of land has been in the early 90s was part of that discussion and it's really interesting when you have a situation where something was discussed so long ago that by the time i got to the school board and i mentioned it to the administration there at the time, nobody even knew about this pot of land at mission bay which was available. so, coming full circle, i'm hope the city will try to make this happen. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, supervisor yee. commissioner walton? >> thank you, supervisor kim. again, it's exciting to be on the board of education at a time when we are talking about opening schools and population expanding here in the city and excited about the responsibility that we have to make sure that there are quality schools for the influx of new communities and neighborhoods that we have in this city and i also do believe in finishing what we started in terms of going back to represent conversations and plots of land that were set aside at mission bay because i think it's important that we think about the impact of the school in the area. not just because of the influx of students and families at mission bay but also in terms of where mission bay is located in proximity to larger areas where there are more students and more kids in the area also. so i'm excited about continuing this conversation, but one caveat i would like to add as we think about this is, we don't typically assign students to schools in the areas they live necessarily. that is also a part of this conversation we need to have. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, commissioner fewer? >> yes, thank you supervisor kim. i think this is a very timely conversation to have. we are debating on what should be a proposed bond this year. it a facilities time, an opportune time. i don't think it's whether we need to build a school, we must build a new school in mission bay. the site that is given to us might be adequate but looking at these numbers actually it is too small of a site for the new growth a mission bay. i would like to caution that the growth is still growing. to accommodate 500 students, i think it's better to be able to include early education there and transitional kindergarten program as well as a k-5. as you know, when we look at the population there at mission bay, i think we will see a huge enrollment of younger children, meaning first grade and kindergarten students and possibly our early education students. so it would, i would ask us to look at things creatively. that we are giving this piece of land of course and it is all about land use here in san francisco, but if there is a site that is larger that could accommodate a larger school, we could also buildup, but as you know colleagues, all of our kindergarten first grade special ed ucation must be on the first floor. as we listen to this data, please keep in mind of the growth that is projected at mission bay. what we are looking at here yield -- but a larger site that could accommodate more students would be more beneficial for the school district. it has been in discussion for a long time and now that we are seeing these new projections we were quite shocked at the number because the building is happening so quickly and it takes 5 years to build the school. it would have been nice to have been at the table earlier now as we are playing catch up and it takes us 5 years to build a school. i know we have some 3-year-olds that are anxiously waiting to attend school in mission bay. i wish we started this earlier but here we are. when we look at these projections you also will be shocked commissioner yee about when your district we are going to desperately need a school in your district also as we have a very small elementary school surrounding that area, not even in close proximity quite frankly. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, commissioner. i do want do recognize that you brought this issue to us last fall and we have had a whole year to work on it and present that today. commissioner haney? >> yeah, i want to also thank supervisor kim for bringing this forward. it's incredibly exciting that we are having this conversation, very timely as commissioner fewer said. one of the things that i'm very taken by and we are going to hear about it is the growth with families and students in san francisco. as you look at the numbers. we saw a huge drop from the mid-90s to 2008 in our enrollment. since 2008 it's been going up and estimates show that in 2023 we are going to see numbers of students that we haven't seen since the 80s. huge increases in the number of students that are in our school district, and i think that's exciting but requires us to plan ahead for that right now. we know there are areas of the city where we need to be proactive to build for that need and we are going to hear from the community today, mission bay is a place where we absolutely need a school, but there is also a number of other areas. when we think about what it looks like to have potentially 12,000 more students than we have now over the next 7-8 years, it's a huge level of need and we are already feeling that crunch right now. it's great that we are having the conversation now. i think commissioner fewer said it would be great if we had it earlier but it still important that we think ahead swiftly with the possibility of a bond and we hear from communities that we have sometimes made assumptions that they won't attend sf unified but sometimes it's been a self fulfilling prophecy because we haven't built the schools to meet their needs and to attract them. i hope we go with that in mind and believe that we have a responsibility to serve every young person , every student in our public schools in san francisco and we should have that as a goal. so i hope that we move swiftly and urgently and i look forward to having more conversations. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you. at this time i will bring up keith and department of sf usd and sheila from planning as well. thank you very much for being here. >> thank you, good afternoon, supervisors and commissioner. my name is orla keith from planning and operations. i'm here to share data that is new and evolve. ing. and there is additional details following and i look forward to answering to questions after my presentation. there is a lot of talk about the context and there are incredible shifts in our community. i live in the city and i'm amazing by what is happening. over 174,000 more people. we'll need about 72,000 more housing units by 2030. there are also community suggestions but mission bay, candlestick and park merced and shipyard and we have our vision 2025. we are looking to transform our public schools. all of this has -- implications for the portfolio of the schools. before that, i want to apologize that the data does not seem what it is. the slides are off. the commissioners have a copy of the presentation that i'm sharing. i know some of you have a copy of the presentation that i'm sharing, what i'm showing is slightly different. it has been modified and has additional information on it. does everybody something like this in black and white. saving the color ink. i'm happy to e-mail an electronic version if anyone would like to get a copy of it. as supervisors have mentioned we are in a period of declining enrollment and starting to see an up turn. today we have 57,000 student. we want to build a forecast for what we can imagine in the future enrollment and what itd might look like. developing projections shows the possible future enrollment and makes assumption about future trends and can depend on these assumptions. our approach is being collaborative. in fact we have been developing enrollment projections for year an every time we work with the city to get data. sfa planning department and mayor's office of housing and community development all work closely with the demographers we hired and projected enrollment in the past and all of their prior work has proved to be very realistic in terms of the actual outcome. they are projecting into the future when you compare it to what the actual enrollments were. the process is on going and you know the enrollment from housing growth in the past was very close to the forecast and we plan to continue and as i go through the presentation, i will talk a little bit about some of the nuances about refining the enrollment projections. so the method for existing houses for the kindergarten ratio, looking at how many children were born in san francisco and the ratio of children enrolled in our public schools. in the last several years, the birth to kindergarten ratio is increasing. and the great progression looks to how many children progress to the 12 great. we have a lot of student movement. student enter at different points and leave at different points. the enrollment projections to see what happens and historically and we use that to forecast what progression may look like. we also look at housing and how many children are living in different housing types are enrolled in public schools. then to actually create their enrollment projections, we take the numbers that we develop through looking at housing and combine the two and that's what gives us our enrollment projections moving forward. some of our key findings are that as the commissioners and supervisors have been talking about is that enrollments will continue to grow. our large cohort that we are seeing in elementary school will move into high school. we are expecting the greatest growth to happen in middle schools. we think about 600 more k-5 and over 1,000 in the middle school and this will remain stable but grow by about 1,000 students by 2023. there is uncertainty about the magnitude of the growth. later in the slide we are showing you a low and high yield. just don't get too caught up in the yield regardless of which way we want to look at the yields there is a number of issues to consider. basically south of market and treasure island will experience the greatest amount of groetd growth -- in the coming years. this is where i have to apologize in the powerpoint. this is simply to say enrollment will continue to grow and just from housing we imagine growth from 3,000 to 6,000 by 2023. we are currently at -- it will be at 62,000. so forecasting new housing is complex. but the one thing that's really clear no matter how we look at it is that substantial numbers of children will live in new housing especially in the bayview. but 31% of all students that will become part of our school system will live in bayview. treasure island is the next neighborhood that will have a substantial number of students. and then about 18% in south of market. >>supervisor jane kim: before you move to the next slide, i know you have listed the neighborhoods in order of number of projected students, but do you also take into account when the development will occur. for example treasure island is years down the road. >> i'm going to get to that. so between new developments will yield anywhere from 7,000-12,000 additional students by 2040. the average, it's very hard with this presentation. i apologize especially to the audience who don't have a hard copy. i apologize that the presentation is not working out the way it should in terms of the formatting. projections can vary depending on some assumption. say for example we are going to have 70,000 new housing units that are planned. if we use for every unite, if we use the yield of.1, then the forecast can expect 7,000 new students. this is to demonstrate there is a significant difference and why it's so important to have additional information. we are still waiting for additional information from the city to find information about the yields. >>supervisor david campos: can i ask a question? what is the typical yield? >> it's varying on the location type of housing and the location and price point of the housing. so for example, the number of bedrooms, whether it's a single family, depending on the type of housing, the yields vary. we do have an extensive report which i will get to you in the next couple of weeks that will break it down into a lot of detail and you will be able to see and by type of housing and how we use that information. this slide basically just shows for all of the units and that are planned that are known to us and it also indicates total number of units and affordable units and our projected number of students in low yields simulation versus an average yield of simulation. this is where you see the range from 7,000 to 12,000. this is actually sorted by development and in descending order. this is to supervisor kim, your question like timing is really really important. it's probably one of the most significant things to think about as we move into a planning phase around where we might need new schools and where we might need them. so, as more information becomes available, we will be able to refine these. but the blue bar is based on a.2 yield in some of the market rating housing in some of the higher end and the negligible yield with historical patterns. but we can't rely on historical patterns that's why we have two ranges. these number are gradual. these are for 2040 but the slides show what we imagine by 2023 and how it varies in different neighborhoods. when units will be occupied really matters because the timing will inform our planning decisions. because this is all new information to us and it could be even greater than the numbers we have right here. but we have limited resources. if we need to build multiple schools, we need to have a framework when it is to be built and the timing is key for that. the major developments in treasure island anywhere from 1100 to 2400. and hunters point from 800 to 1500. candlestick up to 1500, mission bay to 99, merced to 878. this slide here breaks it down by neighborhood and then also shows the new developments, right? so, and this is just in alphabetical order by neighborhood. in the bayview there are a series of new developments that will yield anywhere from 2000-3700 students. the column on the far right shows how many children already live in that part of the city. there are over 6,000 children living in the bayview and the number who are living there once the housing having been built out will increase from 2000 to 3700 students and it goes down further. so mission bay is part of south of market. if you look at south of market, you can see that that is anywhere from 1700 to 2100 we are expecting in that neighborhood and if all the planned units are built out by 2040. that might be if more happens than anticipated. sorry for the graphics. this is the visual that breaks down by each planning neighborhood. the black bar shows the number of children currently living in that neighborhood and as commissioner walton point out, we don't have a neighborhood school system, so it's a choice process. you can still at least see where the children are living and the highest concentration of children living in the southeast and the largest five areas where the largest growth is. the bars for the yield are the low and the high end what the number of the students might be living in that area when the housing is done. so 2040 is a long way away, right? this notion of timing is really important as part of the framework for making decisions. so when we combine the existing and new housing. so we started by looking at the housing and what it might yield and start looking at the new housing. when we put the numbers together, the projections are by 2023 we will have anywhere from 7,000 to 12,000 new students and it varies again upon the yields. the growth from new and existing housing will be here. it's been laid out differently. if we got about 67,000 students, there is going to be about 29,000 from existing housing and new housing. so k-12 enrollment will grow to about 69,000 by 2023. the large cohorts are moving to middle and high. at least we have good information to allow us to make new decisions now about how to accommodate growing enrollment. the bayview south of market in the three neighborhoods that are going to experience the greatest growth in the number of children living in those areas. the next step will complete the report that i mentioned it earlier and we'll make copies available to all. i hope everybody reviews it because it has a lot of rich information to help inform some policy decisions. we have convened staff working groups to ensure communication through this bubble and through high school and we need to bring recommendations to the board of education this year. we are going to create a framework and infrastructure to think about supporting long-term planning as all of those who spoke before the presentation mentioned this is a paradigm shift from growing enrollment to think about what kind of framework and infrastructure we need to support this time. then create framework and modify the projections based on the findings. just to conclude with the information we need, to refine the assumption about student housing and when i say we need this information, it might not even exist. the planning department has been grayed and spent a lot of time with demographers with information and not known in terms of how much marketing is being used. for example condominiums and mid-rises. that will help us define the yields and we don't know what number of senior units in each development. we would like to know that so we know the denominator for units and the bedroom mix is also very important. thank you, commissioners and supervisors. that concludes my presentation. thank you to those in the audience who were patient with the projections. >>supervisor david campos: thank you. i would like to thank you for the presentation. i think i say this every time this meeting happens it. brings back memories. it's great to see these amazing people working at the school district. i have one sorts of question and it's probably a dumb question, but i'm wondering how often and when does this city planning department, when does it talk to the school district to say that we have a number of projects that are perhaps pending before the planning department. is there somewhere in planning who picks up the phone and just so you know we have xyx applications and you have a certain number of units of housing coming down the pike and you should beware of that. does that happen? >> i'm probably not the best person to ask that question. the planning department might be. i know that it's a really important question and it's something that commissioner mendoza and commissioner fewer last year convened a very large working group that met a few times. i think we were lucky with the -- to look at that so the need for schools can be related for any new housing. >>supervisor jane kim: commissioner fewer? >> thank you for this. it was very informative. i also want to respond to supervisor campos' office. no. we start to question it when when the 16th and mission development was going to happen in front of the small elementary school and i asked for the development that were in the pipelines that also have been built around 16th and mission and i began to see that we were going to lack actual school space with all of these developments. then it started the conversation about what's happened as i drove throughout the city i noticed there was great developing happening nut south of market. then when i went down to mission bay, then i got really alarmed because i said, wow, there is so much development going on and these are areas that i need to remind the listening public where these are areas where we had no schools. so we are talking dog patch area which before it was empty. much of it was warehouses and industrial. now we are building homes there. henceforward we had no schools there. if we had been involved in earlier conversations with the planning department when they are approving the projects, i think that we would have been able to say, wait a minute, how are we planning for the infrastructure to support the new residents of san francisco. part of it is offering them a free public education which is required by law. an example, in park merced, had we been involved in these conversations we would have said developers, we need a school site there and early education site as supervisor yee has been very supportive of early education. would have agreed that we need to set aside a piece of property that can also be a preschool site as a k-5 site not to even mention middle school. the answer, no. we were not informed. it takes so long to build a school and we find ourselves a little bit behind. >>supervisor jane kim: we have a number of people who would like to speak through public comment. i'm going to open up for public comment at this time so we can hear from members of the public. if you do have parents with small children if folks can let them ahead of the line, that would be great. patrick valentino, trevor mcneil, sam moss, sarah burr tran, and emily quiche field. even if you didn't fill out a card and you want to speak, you are welcome to. i'm amazing to have so many kids sit here for over an hour. tremendous feat to the parents that are here. thank you. >> my public speaker: my name is trevor mcneil. i'm very much in support of a school in the mission bay and also very much in the support of this conversation when it comes to planning for the future. the enrollment fair on saturday is filled with parents that didn't just move here. they have been here for a while. keeping track of demographics is going to help us plan for parks and keep families in the city. where there is new housing, that's where the new families are going. i don't live in the mission bay, but i know people that do, but i think long-term planning is important. as a former schoolteacher, when you see a trailer on the playground, what does that mean? there are so many kids at school that we are taking away from their playground space. we need to plan for the future and focus on young families and i'm very much in favor of a school in mission bay, i'm very much in favor of supporting further types of development in park merced and when we are talking about development in this city, things get dicey, but why not just come up with a metric. housing, two bedroom houses built equals x dollars in the fund for a school that we are going to be needing. thank you very much for your support. sounds like you are going in the right direction. >> thank you for being here and perfect timing. public speaker: hello, my name is craig liberty and julie. i'm very much in favor and support of a new school in mission bay. as a resident there for 19 years. augusto will be a third generation of where we live right now. we have seen the area rapidly grow. it's been an actual community up to 17,000 new residents coming into the area. even if the school was built and augusto wasn't able to go with the way school districts work in san francisco, it would still bring a huge community sense to the neighborhood that we built there. we have parks you new high rises, we don't have any place for people to bring their children to school. schools just make more of a well-rounded community. it's really needed in this area. living there is a great thing and i know that people would send their kids to public school if it was definitely available to them with the way prices are nowadays for buying houses in the area, saving money and using your tax dollars and letting kid to the public school would help. i'm in support and will go to help organize fight and see if this can get on a school bond for everybody. thank you. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you. public speaker: good afternoon, my name is pat valentino from the six democratic click advocating for the school and here for south mission bay association as president and also in support of the school coming to mission bay. as you can see the folks behind me we are getting organized atd this stage and going to see it through completion. we are asking you to build a school in mission bay and put it on the 2016 school bond to get it done. i think as the last couple just dated, we have seen a lot of couples with kids in mission bay, in the south beach mission bay area across our growing area. the center of gravity seems to be moving to our area with many changes and we know the san francisco giants with the proposition d may put up another 1500 housing units with a significant amount of affordable housing units geared towards families. the neighborhood, i was surprised how many kids were around and geared for families. notwithstanding with how the selection process with the infrastructure of having the school in the community can really be a game changer. and we are really excited to get this done and see families stay here. i always remember the stat. i love dogs. we have more dogs than kids in san francisco. i think some of those dogs would love to have more kids in san francisco. i know we have a lot of support for this and i hope this committee can help push the ball further. thank you very much. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, mr. valentino. public speaker: good afternoon, my name is katie vodel from the san francisco association. i'm speaking on behalf of the association as well as myself. we are definitely strongly advocating for a school in mission bay. i will get right to the facts. mission bay has exploded. the population there is unbelievable. the families and the young kids. the mission library have to turn kids away from story time because they can't fit them all in. the sidewalks are filled with strollers. the whole neighborhood is absolutely booming. these families are going to move away if they don't see a future school in mission bay. they would like a public school in their own neighborhoods so they don't have to consider a private school. mission bay needs to be no. 1 because of the current existing population and because that population is expected to balloon to over 15,000 in 2017. our part of the city is still being built out. there is plenty of affordable and market rate land and yet we have no school. the school district and the kids are there. please include mission bay school in the 2016 school bond and make mission bay the first school that you build next in san francisco. thank you. public speaker: good afternoon supervisors kim, campos, my name is cohen and i'm from the south beach mission bay neighborhood association and representing the south beach mission democratic club. mission bay was already a family neighborhood with young children. as has been noted by commissioner fewer, it's still rapidly growing. in my building which is a limited equity program development specifically for first time home buyers, we have many working families and my neighbors immediately above my unit and across the hall from me have young children. the little boy across the hall will be 4 years old before the school is built. my neighbor with a toddler and baby sister i hope they will be easily able to attend a school walking distance from their home. as said before by previous speakers. the school in mission bay would make a difference between a lot of large multiple unit buildings and a real community. so i support a new school in mission bay. we are organized and ready to add this to the new completion. please make mission bay a new school and please include it in the 2016 school bond. thank you. public speaker: hi, good afternoon commissioners. my name is sarah bear tram. i love to see the growth in the neighborhood. i have a two-year-old daughter and her baby brother coming in a few weeks. i'm adding to the growth in this neighborhood literally everyday. [ laughter ] oh i'm here to ask for your support to make mission bay the next school you build. i really appreciate the opportunity for public comment. i grew up in michigan but across the street from an elementary school. so just reflecting on my childhood. i really feel like seeing firsthand that a role a school plays in making the community come to life. i think that's what mission bay needs. we need something that connects our families, something that engages in local business and build tradition in something that is so new. i don't think you can do anything like that than a school. thank you very much for your support. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you for being the physical representation of growth in the mission bay. public speaker: i'm sarah davis. my family moved to mission bay in 1976. it was abandoned train yards at the time and i was the generation that got bust in the 70s in san francisco. as me and my siblings intred across -- spread across the cities to different communities around the schools and it's where my family got to know people and became community activist. to this day as i go into different neighborhoods in my work, the people that formed out of the san francisco unified school district and pattern teachers associations have become the leaders in our community. mission bay is a very old and new community. this school is going to be one of the pilars that make us into a real community. so i encourage you to think about us and consider us for the bond and thank you for all of your time. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, ms. davis. i will call the rest of the speaker cards. derek garcia,eli and toby and roth burn. public speaker: hello. my name is emily richfield and my husband and i own a business. we have an 18-month-old baby girl who i hope can go at least have the option to go to a public school in our neighborhood. mission bay is a great neighborhood and we feel so privileged to live here. our kids all play together so we are quickly organizing and going to see this advocacy through a completed school in our neighborhood. one personal story i just wanted to share, an observation i made this past easter where our neighborhood organized and easter egg hunt, one for 2 and unand one for 3 and up. the one for kids 2 and under, you couldn't see grass. it was so full. the lawns with 3 and up was empty. so that's where the families in san francisco we want to advocate for staying. it's a shame because a quality public school has a lot to do with that. so, i only have one child now and i plan to have more in the future. my husband and i are really committed to staying in san francisco for as long as we can. if we had that public school that would be one of the major deciding factors. so definitely advocate for the school and mission bay to be the next school. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you. she mentioned the same thing and i have lots of photos. public speaker: good afternoon supervisors and commissioners. this is a long time coming. after supervisor kim was elected we invited her to our neighborhood and our first question was what about a school in mission bay. that was a number of years ago. so we are very excited to be able to mobilize in this community. really the time is now. if we don't get on the 2016 bond, i think the repercussions for the community will not be good as the last speaker said, there are people who are leaving now because there aren't prospects for their kids and undermines the diversity of the community. i live on south park so i have seen over the 20 years mainly growing up and now there is much much demand for the little kids using the swings and no room for the grown ups and that's what we like to see. in my ten 10-unit condo complex we already lost a family. families can't wait. please go forward. thank you. and i have a letter that i would like to leave for you from a family who couldn't be here today. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you, ms. rodgers. >> good afternoon. i want to thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak on behalf of this school. my name is sam moss, the director of housing corporation. we have been running and building affordable housing for 4 years in san francisco. in 2002 we completed about 100 units in mission bay. though we were the first development we are now just one of many in affordable housing now and to come, i can't think of a better time to make sure the school makes it on to the 2016 bond. on behalf of myself and mission housing we want to stress that we support it. one last thing i do believe that in real estate, a development and how expensive and how daunting it can be to make people say it's too hard and just in that regard if you hear someone say well, maybe people won't want a public school, i can't imagine of a worse reason to not keep trying to build as many high quality public schools as we can throughout san francisco and mission bay is the right one. please do what you can. thank you. >>supervisor jane kim: thank you. we are glad your families are involved in this effort. public speaker: good afternoon, members. my name is charles rather born and i live in mission bay and i would like to say the population in mission bay is growing tremendous in mission bay. many of my neighbors have young children. they are really good people and the kind of people that i'm very proud to have as neighbors. i hate to see them move way for lack of a school. i believe that in the enrollment projections that you saw a little earlier that there is evidence in mission bay to have that school for instance on pages 23 there is a presentation from growth from new housing is expected to be as much 6300 children by 2023. much of that new housing is going up in mission bay now as we speak. i don't think that even includes the very large mission rock project. i think mission bay is right for a school also observe that mission bay has some fabulously wealthy neighbors, the san francisco giants and hopefully they can help to defray some of the cost of a new school which is of course very high. anyway, in conclusion, i urge you to make a school in mission bay the next one as san francisco builds. thank you very much. >> thank you, mr. ratsdz burn. public speaker: good evening. i'm derek, an administrator, a principal in the mission bay district but i'm also a mission bay resident. i have a child in sfusd public schools. a lot has been said and obviously a support the mission bay schools and that should be a k-5 schools and would like to get this open and built by 2020. the only thing is the idea of keeping it walkable. i'm in a neighborhood where parking is an issue and we try to keep these bike friendly neighbors. if there can be a school in the flat part of san francisco that kids can walk to their schools and ride bikes. in other areas with all the busy street it's tough. so having a school that is walkable that is a neighborhood center peed right there would be a strong case for us. also the bayview schools is one area that is under enrolled. although there is not that many schools in dog patch or mission bay, bayview has an area that is under enrolled. maybe there is parts there but in the south, to mission bay, we need a school there. thank you very much for having me. >>supervisor jane kim: thur for your leadership. it's very appreciated. public speaker: good afternoon. my name is betty lly and i live in the mission bay. we have a 10-month-old daughter. i want to say how important it is to have a school in mission bay. one of the prudent areas is reading time at the library. if i'm late by two 2 minutes, the registration is full. that goes to show how important it really is to start building the infrastructure that are important for kids in the neighborhood. i grew up in public school. i believe children should be able to walk to school. i really like to have that for my daughter as well. we own a market rate unit in the neighborhood. if there was a neighborhood school that's where we would choose to send our daughter.