Previous world wars. One thing is absolutely unprecedented. Never before has an operational Nuclear Power station been in the midst of the not to bore zone. Will change hands as a result of it. Never before has a distinction between civil and military use of nuclear technology. Its been a functioning Nuclear Reactor and a ticking time bomb been so blurred when the spectra of a Nuclear Apocalypse is an incentive. Is it too late to ponder a contingency plan . Well, to discuss that, im now joined by the mitre seuss love Deputy Director of the center for comprehensive european and International Studies and the har school of economics in moscow. Me trains good to see you again. Thank you very much for being available. Close on. Thank you. My pleasure. Now the is up originally Nuclear Plant has been in the headlines a lot in both russian and western media. Although in diametrically opposing framing on the russians and says that it is the ukrainians who are shelling the the station and are essentially engaging in Nuclear Terrorism, the ukrainians and their western beckers and says that its they have their way around. But regardless of the culpability, dont you think that in old is bickering about who is doing that . Dont you think that the world has lost sight of what is actually happening . That we have a, a functioning Nuclear Facility being targeted by artillery and how it may affect all, regardless of who is saying that precisely, i think youre absolutely right. Im in the old of the base war about blaming the other side of shelling, of the same time, the threat of Nuclear Disaster, which would be worse than the one of your normal let alone for we see why was downplayed. I am there war and their own comments in the western breast as well as in the, even if the Nuclear Reactor is shell directly problem. Nothing dangerous could happen because the facility is more active in the lower one and my date is and so on. And so this is extremely dangerous, but i think the shelling is also important in itself because it is very clear that the purpose of the ukrainians and the western backers of the ukrainian regime is the russians. I is to prove that the very presence or for russian or russian troops, i am of what is your region let alone at the station is a threat to International Security. So which is false or whatever is their intention. The means that they are choosing to do that, you know, even if they were just after any other strategic facility, lets say an airport desired to take it back or to cause as much damage as possible would have been and tactically understandable. And, but in this case, the damage cannot be contained, is the instinct of self preservation. Totally often key because it can you play cloud with reach, keep much faster than muscle for that matter. It could reach any other european capital. Well, i think all the history of the last 6 months and beyond proofs of the instinct of survival is out. I key if, because if this instinct has been there, they would have already agreed with a political settlement of the conflict along the lines. The prospect has been suggesting since early march, but the problem is that they are lot in the band and their political decisions are led by the United States. And by the british who probably think that even if the Nuclear Disaster happens, i a dorming station, they will be less to saw or especially of the United States, which is awesome, which is old from beyond. So the political purpose of grooving of the false allegation, the very presence of russia is the threat. Most of the shelling by you the, by the ukrainians above the presence of russia is above of the real dangers of the, of the nuclear adventure. Even if we agree that lets say the are you great leadership is suffering from p s d and cannot assess the situation objectively or sanely for that matter. It has a number of very strong and very vocal european allies who are allocated very near ukraine. And i know that for example, you mentioned that you know, disaster, its still manifest itself in many areas of europe and asia, for example, in turkey, in the hyphen rates of cancer among their effective populations. You mentioned fukushima and then they were a number of very important Strategic Decisions taken, for example, in germany, the decision to suspend Nuclear Activity because of the fears associated with the consumer. So why are the european so laid back about that . Even if they fully agree with the ukrainian intention to kind of cancel out the rush altogether. Well, i think the reason is of course the conflict has created such a political atmosphere in the west, in general, and in europe in particular. Which for them from saying the truth, which prevents them from any ward which criticizes your grain or even is different than do you agree, maam. Their weakness, the scale of condemnation, softened by henry kissinger, by amnesty international, by the pool pool room frances, when they are a thing which slight blue differs the ukrainian narrative, again, a boost and promoted by the United States and the united kingdom, the level of the scale of condemnation was out. This is why even in extreme danger, this current political atmosphere in the west, unfortunately does not allow independent voices and you know, too full of voices in the continental europe. To Say Something that would come predicts the political purposes of the u. S. U k and the ukranian party. And yet russia still pursuing a some modest attempts at trying to its not many and then find some Common International ground. Im talking about the recent media by team, from the International Atomic Energy Agency to these a power station, something that can cause this fleet among the russian analysts. Some of them suggested that it was a worthwhile thing to do, you know, opening, leaving a door open to some sort of an international oversight. Others argued that it was a reckless move on to part of the russians because it essentially invited a ukrainian it to storm the station once again and sort of sad the ukrainian demons. I wonder where, where do you stand on this . Do you think it makes sense to try to engage International Organizations in this case . Well, i think yes, because i, a, which is or grading under the auspices of the United Nations is not a western organization. As a global. I am nuclear amateur is widespread. Well, be on the west and russia is working with the whole world. Oh, on this matter, with the International Community which is wider than the collective west. Why is that that International Community is also susceptible to western influence . And if you remember a couple of years ago, russia already attempted to involve a Specialized International organization in inspections and awards. And im talking about the organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons. And it was, you know, when to syria and produced very politicized. If not consciously misleading report about what actually happened them, their own staff later linked information about how it was manipulated. Again, im repeating the same question, dont you think that the same thing could happen again that i think are some of the problem of them. So the secretary of International Organizations on the west and the disproportionate western influence in the secret there does exist, especially in the secretariat of their a numeral example. So that boss, we dont have a different un. Yeah. We dont have a different i a yeah. These are the institutions that were come to work with for the sake of International Security and nicholas. And i think the, the visit matters are the several members of this delegation is still on site. And the fire, grossly of the, the director of the i a, a sad that he calls that that would be a Permanent Mission which russia, fullest supports. And look, with the arrival and presence of the i, a delegations, the ukranian shelling have disappeared. They have thought right and, and brushing is interested on, oh, yes for now. But russia, if you still is interested in security, russia is interested in, you know, bro, sort of facial. Busy this Nuclear Power station am a continuation of its performance in a safe way and working with the i e, you know, the report that i a is supposed to deliver in the us to go to the column. So several days from now if im not mistaken, on september 6 i could be extremely important. Busy i in this regard and could draw a Gl International excellent, create an International Pressure beyond the west from the lawn, western world, the was ukraine. You know the stock preparing the stage for a new Nuclear Disaster. Well, i guess we will have to wait and see. I hope youre right, but for the time being, mitchell, you have to take a very short break. Well be back in just a few seconds they can. Ah ha. What weve got to do is identify the threats that we have. Its crazy confrontation, let it be an arms. Race is often very dramatic. Development only personally, im going to resist. I dont see how that strategy will be successfully, very critical time. Time to sit down and talk with. Mm welcome back to well the point that meant tristan looked Deputy Director of the center for of comprehensive european and International Studies. The Higher School of economics in moscow, mitre, i heard you say recently, and one of the russian political shows that in the final months of the soviet union, the United States under the george bush Senior Administration, was very concerned about the state of russias nuclear industry. And they in fact, invested in a lot in safeguarding nuclear materials, nuclear rockets, et cetera, to make sure, and they do that not only for themselves, just like sidney. There was a selfish interest, but they did it also for the wider humanity. What do you think the Biden Administration stands on the, on the threat of nuclear, non proliferation, both the military sense and the in a sense of, of using safe use of Civil Nuclear technology. Im asking not about public statements, not about did the rhetoric, but whats you sense of actually, how concerned are americans about what is happening in the british . Yeah. Well, i think the, the collapse of the soviet union play the girl negative role in responsibility. The u. S. Foreign policy because this responsibility drastically refused the u. S. Believe them started to believe more. I in their own mis, they invented this idea of the us victory in the cold war of the history of the unit polar moment and so on, so forth. And the Senior Administration behaved with a greater element overs wants to be able to this is why of course they wanted to weaken the soviet union, but theyre bugs. His secretary of state baker, National Security advisor, school growth. They didnt want to collapse. I didnt realize that you know, my way so that it does not con damage to everybody else precisely because they didnt want an uncontrolled proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. And when the soviet union still collapsed because of beulah domestic reasons, they immediately made an effort to secure the. Busy of Nuclear Weapons and United States basically was the engine behind the re collection of soviet Nuclear Weapons for on the ukraine, bailable some cars up into russia under the centralized and safe control. Do you think the decision right now . If they could turn back the time, do you think they would have made an opposite decision . Well, i, its hard to say of course, but what im trying to say that i, you know, the administration was witnessing still the final stages by that was still the cold war. Ah, whereas, and this is why it behave much more responsibly. It generally wanted to avoid a new good accident when only your thing is that they were scary enough. They were scared and rational and how do you think the, the Biden Administration is carrying them out by the fallout from the current prices . Because im, i mean, we all can see that whatever you know, that public rhetoric is the fallout from the ukraine on energy prices, on domestic Public Attitudes on inflation, et cetera, is humongous. They could not be any more isolated from the effects of their foreign policy. Does it keep home already . Well, i think the administration unfortunately is small scared in loss. Of course, the scale and depth of american participation in the Ukrainian Military conflicts dos create the conditions for the so called horizontal escalation, which is the direct military clash between russia, nato, and russia. The United States for all the last 6 months, the United States has been constantly crossing the red lines, some kind of pushing the red lines, moving the red line forward and forward with the suppliers will be increasingly heavier weapons where the supplies of intelligence information with actually preparing and supervising over the ukranian military operations with the approval of the cranium military strikes on the russian data such as try near the United States is part of this debate in this conflict in a very be a scale. The scale is growing out. This is dangerous, the United States is political and christy responsibility for the consequences and for the for the results of the war in since ukraine is able to show. Busy any success, such as the current offensive, which is failing, you know, what the United States is supposed to do, right . What can tonight in states do on the one hand, United States can accept the truth, that it is impossible to defeat profit. They open military conflicts and allow diplomacy to worry about this is acceptable for them yet because of their state, the purpose of defeating and weakening russia or the other option is actually bureau of the 3rd world war, which is the wallet of increase in for one of the different grease of the military assistance or to your grain, or even open participation of ne though i give this operation, this is a dad law for the United States. And this really creates the stage for escalation. Now me to as important as these up a regional plan, its not the only and you play facility in ukraine. I think that the more stations. And even if with the intervention of the i a, the situation in separation miraculously comes down. Do you think a threat of Nuclear Terrorism or just Nuclear Black male would receive and by the way, do you think that the americans with that level of control and supervision of the ukrainians that you mention . Do you think they have any qualms about the use of Nuclear Facilities for geo political purposes . I think that unless the United States are united in the amount of or is the key when the government drops out, the idea of pushing russia out the Nuclear Danger will remain because it is absolutely great. It is Crystal Clear that it is i what do you think they mean by pushing russia out . Rush, 6, huge country away. Where north could it couldnt be push the you can and youre going to put it on the, on the moon. So how, you know, thats the boy, you know, president still ask you of your grant, your state, you will continue to fight unless you read takes all the Ukrainian Land with the mind in mind to run orders. Americans are apparently and openly grooving disperse. Right . And it is absolutely clear that it is impossible to drive russia out through traditional military needs. This is why they turn to Nuclear Terrorism and the threat of Nuclear Terrorism as a mean, you know, to try to push russia out in this way. This is why i think the danger will remain unless they change the political purpose over there. Pause, you know, i tried to follow political discussions both in russia and in the west, and its clear that both sides im, youve been this sense of righteousness, but at least the russian analysts. I trying to understand the rationale of van, i mean they recognize the enemy, but they are trying to understand what is it, you know, how decisions are being arrived at and what is moving down, what is the objectives . Whereas in the west, everything starts and ends with pollutants and rushes the morning nature, theres very little analysis, almost none of it. And its increasingly taking on the wives of some sort of a holy war of a crusade. Gc. We are still dealing with rational opponent, people who make decisions in washington. Are they rational in the traditional sense of rationality . Well, i think there are quite many smart analysts and scholars in the United States for getting rational, right. They are predominantly realists. People like john for steven wal camera, kissinger, i and many others, but unfortunately they are not the ones who are dr. American for us. Youre absolutely right. The u. S. Foreign policy is dominated by a liberal and neoconservative hawks who dry to perform the whole conflict as a struggle between good and evil democracy and the box. And they demonized russia. They tried to prove that roger is the source of evil. I am, you know, this makes it impossible to, to make a settlement, you know, because of them. Right . Absolutely. Then it is that the exit national conflict, them this the United States in a bad luck. Because if they dont win this fight between the good of the evil additional way they will have to escalate, thats what kissinger is constantly talking about. Thats very well speaking about deadlock and quite literal sense. Prison bite ended up the idea that donald trump and the mag republicans represent a form of extreme extreme isnt that threatens the very foundation of the american republic, given how badly the democrats had doing in the polls, given the recent search as at trumps a state and given the mid term elections coming up, do you think trump has reasons to be concerned about his freedom or even his safety . Well, i think that the persecution of donald trump is absolutely true and there, and the democrats wants to put him in jail and they will try. Busy all the means, you know, to remove him from active participation, all of x m, ultimately moving into jail. The raid in model lago was justin recent manifestation of that. And yes, the f b, i has become bidens and democrats kind of personal, gustavo, you know, the repression mechanism. I think the, you know, despite the current politics of the general situation in the United States is very dangerous because i havent seen, i havent witnessed that kind of intensity of political struggle that kind of, i am with i between democrats and republicans and thats kind of between progressives and conservatives in the United States, since my, since the 18 fiftys and sixtys since the time which a result of into the civil war in the United States and in the 19th century, i think that the United States is in the stage of political, civil war right now, and it is not exclude us at a certain stage, this political civil war could turn into a full fledged civil war. Well, i agree with you and i want to know that i think the level of support that trump i enjoys right now. Not only in numerical sense, i think the intensity and sort of the and the ferocity all my stuff. They are the sentiment within the republican base. It is not to be compared to what they used to exist back in 2016. Then at that time these people were still sort of believing in, in the american democracy in the american institutions. Now it is life or death for them not only in a political sense, but also in quite the literal sense. So it is indeed quite dangerous. If there is a major unrest in the United States, do you think washingtons attention from our western border will be diverted or do you seeing on the country the, the americans will sort of try to are they antsy . Well 1st you are absolutely right about the crisis. So thrust towards american institutions towards the rule of law or the b i bullies and so on and so forth. And the lack of dross, institutions is a very powerful indicator of the, of the christs. Actually, this is how soviet union collapsed, right . Because the people did not believe did not process the soviet institutions as the system as a whole. And now there is a deficit of prost towards the system itself. In b a in the United States, a deficit of trust. There is an active mistrust. There is that right and believe that they will be and then the election them both the still and absolutely right. Of course, of all 60 percent or republicans wants donald trump to be their candidate. And the next president ial election to support in the Republican Party is greater than is the support of jo by them in the democratic party. Right. But still, the bite of ministration has come back in the us and paralyzing if youre a big proportion of american people. So. Busy on the rest is possible, you know, and what are here or, you know, it will depend on the scale of, on the rest of the scale of civil war in the United States. If the scale is substantial but still manageable, even United States does not collapse as a state and the country, then the consequences will be dangerous. Requires do more political upheaval exists in american domestic. All of those, the less responsible is there for. Ringback in the more room on for some sort of escalation and irresponsible behavior by the states collapses. Well then we will also have to think about consequences for the world about their Nuclear Weapons, you know about the milligram basis all over the world and so on. And so forth. So i will draw that as you know, as the administration. I would rather think about the negative security consequences of their political. Yeah, well we will definitely be able to rejoice that somebody else has that damage and harm me to. We have to leave it there. Thank you very much for your time today. As usual. Its great pleasure talking to you. My pleasure. Thank you very much. Thank you for watching hope to see you again on the worlds apart. Ah with mm ah, look forward to talking to you all. That technology should work for people. A robot must obey the orders given by human beings, except where such order to conflict with the 1st law show your identification. We should be very careful about Artificial Intelligence at the point obviously is too great trust rather than fear a job with Artificial Intelligence, real summoning with a robot most protective phone existence with oh, ah, ah, Ukrainian Forces once again shell, a key bridge in southern ukraine using an american supplied by march pocket system. Our crew reports exclusively from the area code the middle of the bridge, the destruction these much with civilian vehicles, are no longer able to cross a put together a short window. Weve been told by troops that we have, they have detected lunches with the analysts predict in gas prices will spike this monday after russia
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