Ah. Hello and welcome to cross hawk were all Things Considered . Im peter lavelle. 5 months in the company can ukraine has turned into a vicious cycle of escalation encounter escalation. The more the west arms give, the more ambitious moscows battlefield aims become. On top of this kid wants the west to essentially underwrite its entire military. And now economy. This is like pouring in. Good money after bad. Ah. Cross stocking ukraines future. Im joined by my guess. Now boucher mileage in washington. Hes a blogger and column this in new york. We have danielas our. He is a journalist and author of 3 books on the u. S. Constitution. And in mexico, we cross to alex rubinstein. He is an investigative journalist. I, gentleman cross are girls in effect. That means you can jump any time you want. And i always appreciate the boy sure, let me go to you 1st in washington. Is reality slowly catching up to this propaganda effort to weve seen since the started the complex. I mean, you know, we have a president zalinski and his wife. They have time for vogue magazine, a shooting, something that blew is akin to war. Porn zalinski want saw, as the European Union is cutting back dramatically on energy usage. The ukraine wants it free now and we can go on and on. Ive lost count how many billions of dollars and arms have been sent there, but its not working. Okay. The propaganda is there, but the reality is forcing people slowly but surely that this is a lost cause no voice or go ahead. I dont think the west is quite there yet. I think theyre still in the doubling down in denial stage that did the vogue photo shoot especially was was to me an act of desperation to, to try to get some attention back to the issue. But nothing is going to change the fact that ukraine is money peer to the more bottomless enough gamma stand for was and you know, say on the bursary of that is coming up. And we all know how that ended. Even though the same media who are flogging some sort of miss of ukrainian victory, would love us to forget. And that was only a year ago. No, i mean, the reality is that the war is going very conflict. Its going very badly for ukraine and the west, and theyre just not just refusing to admit it and try to play word games and pretend to talk to kids. Well, daniel, ok, just dump, telling us what we just heard from the boys. I mean, am i being too cynical to say that this is just a griffin because they want to keep it going on as long as they possibly can because theyre not having any meaningful impact on the battlefield. So keep taking the money, keep making demands, keep getting attention because it seems to me this entire effort part of the west, even though it is amazingly wasteful and corrupt. Its a means to keep something going. Well, the going is good because the end is near and i dont know when near it, but that means maybe in august and september, october. I dont know, daniel, its like one of those road runner cartoons the now where wiley coyote goes, that goes running off a cliff and any sort of pause the mid air, looks at the audience and gulps. And then finally plummets a 1000 feet to the canyon for floor below. I mean, its beginning to sink in in washington that the war and the ukraine is not going well. The ukranian government is showing signs of instability. The war aims are not well defined. And meanwhile, the u. S. Is blundering is into trouble in the, in the taiwan straits so. So things are not going well. And i think that realization is starting to sink in. But the process, the process of waking up is only just begun, but eventually itll happen. Yeah. Well alex, you know, admitting that you are wrong is something these people have never been able to do. Ok. I know, but before i go to alex, you know, stilton berg was as well. What success has nato ever achieved . The former yugoslavia they call that a success. Okay. Ill alex see, you know, and looking at Public Opinion polls, particularly in the u. K. In the United States, when people are asked what theyre most concerned about in their not prompted ukraine never makes the cut ever ever makes that cut here. This is in elite project. Ok . And thats why my 1st question, the bushes talking about what, when, when do they get wake up to reality . Because the publics are not particularly interested in this and only up to the point of inflation shortages then they understand go ahead, alex. Yeah, well i dont think that theyll ever wake up to reality even, even in the event of defeat, theyll find some sort of unreason unrealistic excuse as to why, why, why its coming to an end. You know, like, like yugoslavia, you know, maybe nato also considers libya success, but i, you know, they still havent formed a coherent government. I. The thing is, is that i, you know, you, the, this of the support for ukraine is, is i, its, its like a, its a, its a virtue signal its, its something that people can feel good about, but they are feeling the effects of it. And its going to come back to bite them. You know, the u, the u. K. Government is in shambles and there is going to be a, in my view, a republican takeover in the United States. I come the med terms because people arent willing to pay this so called pu price hike up for you know, for something which is meaningless to them. And, you know, its, its, its harmful to city citizens, the civilians in and the u. K. All across europe, the United States, and especially the civilians of ukraine. You look at this attack that ukraine did just the other day on this bridge over that i, im not quite sure how to pronounce it, but that a d n i e p r river the night. But maybe you can correct me on that. Ah, and they used us supplied he mars to take out that bridge. That bridge wasnt serving a military purpose. It was a they said that trucks werent going. Oh great. It was to damage for trucks. So it was just Passenger Vehicles of so there you know, the u. S. Is supplying destruction in ukraine and at the same time destroying themselves and whats the effect their, their, their strengthening rushes hand. So eventually a defi will be admitted, but it wont be admitted honestly. And there. Boy sammy, ive said many, many times on this program is that the more the west helps ukraine, the smaller it gets. Well, that is as being proven true. Um, and you know, the, the, the, the, the sad fact of the matter is, is that diplomacy has never been but seriously taken. And that we did have a con, fab in istanbul, a month to the conflict. And then from what we understand from reporting, the u. K j boris johnson. Squash that and tony blanket has no interest at all talking about some how to end this conflict because i want to make it very clear to our viewers the reckon to only talk to the americans about this. Now theyre not going to talk to anybody in europe because theres nobody worth talking to in europe anymore about it. It shows the lack of leadership there. They shed at any kind of responsibility that their citizens, theyll go after them. Sergeant schultz wont be there for much longer guaranteed. Go ahead and washington abortion. Well, the russians have tried negotiating with the europe twice already when it comes to ukraine. Date it was, there was the to 2014 january, 2014 power sharing agreement that was supposed to peacefully end the my don Color Revolution and the us backed and coordinated ukrainian. Nationalists simply ignored it and took power by force. And then those very same nationalist when they tried to crush the rebellion in don, yet skin ganske and crimea by force and were defeated. Then again turned to france and germany to broker a ceasefire. And that was the minced protocols. Disease fire, which again they proceeded to completely ignore it. And what did the us do it sabotage these things that every step and the french and germans just went along with it and you know, mouth platitudes. So i dont blame the russians for saying that the french and german or germans are agreement incapable and they wish to speak to the manager, which is in this case washington. The only question is, whos actually in charge in washington . Because job manifestly is not and you know, whoever tony blinking takes instructions from is, is an idiot because hes not engaging any sort of diplomacy. Hes just engaging in fostering and propaganda. And obviously not having any effect whatsoever, but you know, anybody could see it if, if they just bother to truck. You know, daniel, isnt the voice brings up such a very good point. I think it needs to be reiterated. This conflict has been going on for 8 years. Okay. Well, through media wont talk about that. They wont talk about the 14000 people that died in the don bass. The result of this. They dont talk about the blockade. They dont talk about all any of these things here. And thats why when i look at this, joseph beretta, the head of the use foreign policy. He said this is going to be decided on the battlefield. I mean, hes such a buffoon and you know what . Hes right on this one because if here is no way to negotiate, nobody wants to come to the table. Then the russians will say, when its over, when its over, when they did say its a, its over and it has nothing to do with any kind of arms or any other kind of overtures that come from the west. Its really a one way deal right now. Daniel yeah, i mean it is going to be decided on the battlefield and thats the problem for the west. Because the, the Russian Military effort started out slowly and haltingly. But its picked up momentum since then. And now the advantage over the ukrainians is really quite clear and maybe pouring in more more western weaponry like the, the high mars may, may offset the process for a bit, but it wont be for long because has cleared the russian war machine will keep grinding on that russian power is overwhelming and the ukrainians will be forced to, to back off to can see. So the big question is, the big question, is that once that reality becomes impossible for even washington, just to defy what happens next. I mean, does, says, does nato call off its, its 25 year march to the east. Yeah. Due to russian, russian pressure. And what will that do to nato and the you and what will that do to tell us a gemini, will there be any, any shred left of us control of the, of the global order, or will it simply fall apart . And if that, if the latter is the case, we are facing a, an epic change. One of the most profound transformations of the entire post war period. And daniel, its over you, crane with it has no strategic interest to europe or the United States. Its not a key security issue and i agree with you read a Pivotal Moment here and its because of hubris and neo liberal ideology on rules based order or whatever that means. Thats what its all about gentlemen. Im going to jump in here. Were going to go to a short break up. About short breaks. Well continue our discussion on ukraines future. Stay with our to the ah way. No one. No, no, not a little more shrill than what the ship unit 731 was a unique organization in the history of the world. What they were trying to do was to simply do nothing short and build the most powerful and most deadly biological Weapons Program that the world had. Every now is forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. A robot must obey the orders given by human beings, except where such order does that conflict with the 1st law show your identification. We should be very careful about personal intelligence at the point, obviously is to place trust rather than fear with the area with artificial intelligence. Real. Somebody with a robot must protect its own existence with a with ah mm hm. Ah, ah, welcome across not were all things are considered. Im peter bell to, to remind you, were discussing ukraines future ah case go back to alex in mexico. I, daniel did a really good job of mapping out the implications of this conflict in how the world will move forward or move apart from it, because i see it as a paradigm shift here. And i dont, theres no way going back, but its focus a little bit of time on the impact of these of the sanctions here. Famously, chancellor schultz of germany, i refer to me on this program is Sergeant Schultz because he reminds me in Sergeant Schultz from hogans heroes, mom, these are the impact on europe is profound. Okay. And you know, irrespective whats going to happen, i dont see sanction being lifted any time soon. The russians have been prepared for it. Theyve shown that theyve been prepared for it and theyre moving forward here. But i think the political implications for the European Union are profound is well and the only upside for washington. And all of this i would say is that theyve, they havent had demonic control over europe. Yea, what a victory that is a pirate. It victory. An empty victory, if europe is not, that doesnt have hyperbolic productivity, that its not competitive in the world. Ok, i mean, so its kind of a loser situation for europe and the political class, theres going to pay a very high cost. I really, truly believe that go ahead, alex will. I, i think that the goal for the United States and nato a structural change in russia. Thats not going to happen. And to be quite frank, i dont think that there will necessarily be structural change in, in europe. Either what if theyre willing to fight this word to the last ukranian then i think that they are willing to see europe fall until theyre there. They are the last one standing on. So i, i think that the only country that were going to see structural change in is ukraine, which was the last thing that they wanted. But i, i do feel that i rather than a situation of structural change in europe, were going to see a long term slow detour deterioration. Ok, so i dont, i dont, i think that you can call that a paradigm shift because it is obvious that the tides are turning. But i dont think that necessarily were going to see people, you know, storm brussels. Thats a good point. But i mean the paradigm, let me give another example, the paradigm shift that im talking about, the boy, you know, Joseph Burrell is a very, very upset that global media continues to follow, segregate, love it off the foreign minister here, and not himself. Okay . I mean, the, his blog that he writes is just a gift that keeps on giving. It makes a complete buffoon out of himself here. But thats the, that, thats part of the paradigm shift that im talking about. The global south is not going along with it. They, it shows very clearly the global south does not respect or fear importantly, the west, any more. Thats part of the change im talking about. Go ahead in washington. Well, theres, theres 2 slogans. The basically 2 motto is that the western empire has lived by all these years. One is calculus, let them hate me. So is the fear me, which as you pointed out is no longer the case. Now weve left, were just hatred. And the 2nd one is fake until you make it, which is the, you know, the driving force of drifters of the world around. Well, the gift is up there. Theyve been thinking it, theyre not making it. The world has stopped fear, ink, and continues to hate. And now you have a situation in which basically the fabled International Community has been reduced to the u. S. Europe and a handful of its allies around the globe. And the rest of the world is either neutral or pro russian. And this, this was not something that the west wanted to achieve. In fact, its the opposite of what they wanted to achieve. Im not sure if that was russias plan all along. But we were, this is more, this is bigger than ukraine. First of all. Secondly, when it comes to ukraine itself, though, it has to, it ultimately has to choose between its survival as a country, good point, his regime. Because this regime is going to see a dead and buried. Thats right. A daniel, if i show good is going exactly where i wanted to go. I, we keep talking about ukraine, ukraine, ukraine. But what is ukraine now and what will it be . Ok, this is a huge question. That open ended right now. And the more western support we see, the smaller it gets, and im not really sure how attractive the around state would be. Would it become a ward of the e u. And that would be part of the ugh, alisha, the deletion part of ukraine, which is full of some very, very nasty people. Okay. And i personally, and im going to say it publicly, i dont see how zalinski survives us and he doesnt have to fear the russians. He has to fear his inner circle. Daniel. Yeah, i mean, when we talk about the u. S. Empire being over extended. I mean, what that means is it has extended itself into a sort of a nebulous border zone. And the ukraine, the word ukraine actually means a border zone. And the, the crane is structurally weak, big. And today its sort of like, you know what, that which lies between russia and europe. Its free for centuries. Its been a, its been a high wafer invaders traveling from central europe, central asia, into europe and vice versa. And so theres no stability there. Theres really no state there, theres no there there. And its divided between the russian speaking east and south and the, and the, the ukrainian speaking west around the city of laval. And that is indeed the center of a very nasty, ultra right form of national. And its just hard to imagine a viable state arising out of that. Its been a battle zone for years and likely will continue to be a battle down for years. And the u. S. Empire sort of thrust itself into the middle of this kind of nether world. You know, and thats kind of stand is the same way. I mean, ask dana stands the border zone as well. Always has always been on governor governor both. Its not so much a nation as a place where the other nations and, and the u. S. Thrust itself into that completely thoughtless late and after 20 years has ended in disaster and something tells me the same thing is going to occur the grant. I absolutely agree with you, you know, its one of the, one of the terrible things that happened as a result of the my don qu, is that of the, the people that came to power were espousing a, a nationalism that didnt have a nation. Okay. It was in, it was a imaginary in them their own small circle of people in, in, in western ukraine. And they thrusted on to the rest of the country, which of course, but don bass in the crimea. And so we have nothing to do with this. We, we dont, and we dont agree with your definition of ukraine, your definition of what it means to be ukrainian. And they dont, they didnt want to divorce themselves, who from the russian language wash and traditions russian history here. And this is what weve happened has happened here. They have thrust themselves, he used daniels word on them to create ukraine that never existed in never will exist for the reasons that daniel just told us. Go ahead, alex. Well, bef