and american express open is here to help. that's why we are proud to present "your business" on msnbc. hi there, everyone. i'm j.j. ramberg. and welcome to "your business." the holidays are a special time of year. with all of the decorations, and the music, it's pretty hard not to get into the holiday spirit. well we met one entrepreneur who is capitalizing on this excitement. but he's figured out a way to do it all year round. >> it's a happy place. you know, it doesn't matter what kind of day somebody's having, they smile, they walk around and they just -- it just changes their attitude. >> roger lund's new oxford, pennsylvania, small business gives customers the chance to be happy and merry all year long. >> we're a german christmas store. our specialty is authentic german items. that i get when i go over to germany every year. >> roger has been spreading good cheer at the christmas haus for about 13 years. and he's been selling christmas almost every day since then. pretty much 24/7, actually. >> i never know what i'm going to have, because each year it's something i discover something different. once people find a store that has the quality goods that we have, they stay very, very loyal. so, it works well for us. >> but how does he sell things like mouth blown hand painted ornaments and nut crackers and smokers, when december 25th is only one day on the calendar? for him it's all about decking the halls, trimming the tree, and celebrating the good times from year's gone by. >> we're in the memory business. we're selling heirlooms. the people that come in here are always dealing with memories. they'll look at something and talk about grandma's tree. >> geographically speaking, roger knows he's at a good spot to get regular foot traffic. >> we live in a tourist area. we're just outside of gettysburg. so we have people that come and do day trips or weekend trips here all the time. a lot of times one half of a couple really wants to go see gettysburg. okay. the battlefield. but the tradeoff is the other half of the couple says, well, then, i get to do a little shopping. and so they see our billboard, and they're like christmas. >> as a result, the christmas haus rarely closes. >> we're actually closed on easter, thanksgiving, christmas, and new year's day. >> but that's it. if you do the math, roger's doors are open 361 days a year. because he never knows when a customer will come by. >> i talk to so many small business own ners our area and they're only open certain days of the week. they say well it's because i need a day off and i know that day's going to be slow. it's just not true. it's just not. you never, ever know when there's going to be a day, a busy day and if you want to be successful you better be there when your customer wants to come. >> staff member linda says customers take advantage of the store's daily schedule. >> when we say that we're open every day, you know, they know that we are and they just can come here. i'm always delighted that they say they've been here before and that they will be back? >> once the customers are shopping, roger prides himself on his team's ability to share the stories behind the products. >> i work with very small companies, primarily a lot of it mom and pop operations. most of the people we deal with are in what was east germany and we get a big kick out of telling them about how we found things, and where they came from. >> those conversations translate into sales. >> right now you can barely see it but it's outnumbered. things that are going to be passed on for the next generation. the more somebody knows about it the happier it is to buy it. >> afterwards they might look at the price. usually when they get home. >> people like linda are another one of roger's secret weapons. she like all of the employees was a customer first. >> years ago i came in to see what it was all about. and to buy some ornaments for myself. and i immediately just loved the atmosphere. >> after linda became a regular shopper she started helping roger out. >> i didn't know if i wanted to give up my time at home with my family. but i thought, well, you know, it has to be fun. and i would not go back to work if it wasn't something that i enjoyed. >> that's exactly why roger makes it a point to hire people who were originally customers. >> they've got what we're selling because they came in to buy it. they understood the value of the stories they were told. >> because they come in loving the store, the staff is incredibly easy to incorporate into the brand. >> i would start asking them, do you want to work a few hours a week? they then take very little training to learn these stories and be able to greet other people the same way. >> the customer experience in the store has resulted in more online sales. it's now as high as 26% of total business and growing. >> you don't always know who you're dealing with online. but when customers come in to the shop, and they see that we're a real bricks and mortar operation they feel more comfortable ordering from us online. >> the only downside to running a business like the christmas haus is it's nearly impossible to have everything that customers are looking for. >> it's funny, i have thousands upon thousands of ornaments in here, but somebody will walk in and they just need. and it's just like, i don't believe i have that ornament. >> while specific requests can be tough, telling someone that roger has their special item is incredibly rewarding. when a customer has a specific request when i can say i found that for you, oh, my goodness i've made it for them. >> roger says there's always a demand for christmas. and he's happy to support his customers offline and online every day of the year. >> there's always a baby's first christmas. there's always somebody that's about to get married. there's always somebody that they want to send a little gift to at christmastime. i guess after all these years i've stayed true to our vision of what we're doing and stayed true to understanding the need of my customer, so that i'm taking care of them. >> 2014 turned out to be a pretty good year for small business. at least relative to recent history. the national federation of independent businesses optimism index rose at the end of the year to its highest level since february of 2007. so, what does the new year hold for america's small business owners? bill dunkelberg is chief economist for the nfib and j.d. harrison reports on small business and entrepreneurship for "the washington post." great to see both of you guys. >> hi, j.j. >> thanks for having me. >> bill i think you have been here every year at the end of the year for this show, at least in recent -- >> oh, thank you. >> so, these are your numbers bill coming out of the nfib it sounds good, they've they've optimism index jumped two points but, how excited should we be. give us some perspective. >> that means we had a 20 percentage point increase in positive answers to the ten questions in the index. that's a pretty significant jump. the caveat here is that the total jump is really accountable by just two of the questions in the index. that is expectations for business conditions six months from now. those got a lot better. 16-point gain. that's really a big one. and a five-point gain in expected real sales. so that's nice but what we didn't see in the index was any change in the job creation plans, or inventory investment plans or capital spending plans, things that would generate, you know, gdp, which is what we're really looking for. but it's really nice to see the index up. the sad thing is, of course, that we usually approach the average, which is 98 is the average for 42 years. we usually approach it from the top down you know, after having a really good time, and we haven't done that yet. we just crawled up to the average. >> you know, does it make sense that there is a slight lag as you see in history of doing these surveys, so that you think things are going to get better, you think and sales are getting better well then you'll start hiring soon after? >> sure. the first thing is you have to believe in the future. then, of course, you have to act on that belief, and then that's when the hiring and the capital spending and inventory investment takes place. and that's what we're looking for now. so we hope this translates, and translates soon. >> all right. okay. well j.d. we've got the numbers. you talked to small business owners every day. what are you seeing? what kind of the word on the street from people you're talking to? >> the conversations i'm having match up pretty closely with what bill and his group are hearing. that sales are up, that the outlook for business conditions is pretty strong or at least relative to where we were at this point like he said the last couple years. everything is relative. but i think it is going to take at least a few more months, you know, a strong start to next year to give business owners the confidence to turn that -- that positive outlook into creating jobs, and expanding, and looking in to new opportunities to grow. >> it's interesting so much of this is about psychology, right, bill? i mean, it's, you look at your numbers and that tells one story but the other part is just as you said how confident are you. >> well, that's it. we need good things to happen in order to get people a little more optimistic. there are two good things that are really important for business owners. one, of course, would be the appearance of more customers. i mean, as bad as other things might be, your costs, regulations and everything else, you know, if you've got a lot of customers you can deal with that. >> mm-hmm. >> but absent strong growth in consumer spending and consumers are still kind of suffering from the debt, you know, problem they still have debt equal to 100% of their income when it used to be like 65%. but the other thing is policy from washington, d.c. their top business problems are uncertain fwi the economy, and taxes, and so on. the cost of health care, energy costs are coming down, so that's a happy deal. and the cost of regulation and red tape and the tax code. well, will we make any progress on any of those in 2015? if we do, that will increase their optimism, and they'll be more willing to bet on a future and make the spending decisions we like to see them make. >> j.d. when you talk to business owners are these the thing you hear regulation health carat set ra or is it something sort of a little bit more that we're just not exactly sure where things are going? >> i think bill's touching on some of the key ones that i hear, as well. the health care uncertainty. i don't know if it's so much uncertainty at this point. i think the law stands when you're talking about the affordable care act. i think it's misinformation and things like that that are still kind of rampant. and i think once we clear up what the rules are, when they're going in to place, there's some things that have been postponed that i think if those things actually the deadline continues, things like employer mandate and certain rules for employers, i think just knowing the rules, and having a sense of certainty areally what these folks are looking for. >> got it. all right, well i hope to have both of you guys back in six months from now, and i want to have the same conversation, and let's see if these numbers, the optimism that we're seeing, translates into more jobs, et cetera. >> sounds great. >> let's hope so. >> great to see both of you guys. >> keep up the great work j.j. happy new year, merry christmas. >> you, too. >> the holiday season can mean a lot of traveling, but, unfortunately, for all of us, the workload of a small business owner rarely slows down. so, to help you stay on top of your to-do pile, even when you're on the road, check out our app of the week. speedspot app locates free hot spots to plug in to no matter where you are. you can test the speed of internet connections so whether you're heading over to grandma's house or flying across the world you can still hold that last-minute video call or send over those crucial signed documents. social networks connect people who can be great contacts in both life and work. and twitter can be the start of a business relationship or could provide you the inspiration for your next possible idea. here now are five criteria you should keep in mind when choosing who to follow on twitter courtesy of inc.com. one, the profile picture. you want to see either a logo of a company or a somewhat professional photo of the person you're about to follow. two, the description. what the person includes will tell you a little bit about themselves. it will give you a glimpse into what you can expect from their future tweets. three, their followers. who they choose to stay in the know about, and who cares to see what they're up to can be a good clue into whether or not this person is worth your time. four, their activity. how many tweets do they have? if they have a ton of followers and a large following but publish a low number of tweets you may want to think twice. and five the date they joined. if they've been around for awhile and have no activity you should probably choose not to follow them. when we come back, we look at how to maintain cash flow, professor robert cialdini tells us how to influence customers through what he calls social proof. and the man who disrupted gift giving. celebrity ceo kriss kringle on his approach to marketing and distribution. if i can impart one lesson to a new business owner, it would be one thing i've learned is my philosophy is real simple american express open forum is an on-line community, that helps our members connect and share ideas to make smart business decisions. if you mess up, fess up. be your partners best partner. we built it for our members, but it's open for everyone. there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. saying thank you to me is such an important part of our business. and i think people don't do it enough. i want to see thank you notes going out to people to tell them that you really recognize and appreciate their business, and that's the way you're going to get them to come back. i want people to say thank you. and i want to thank our staff for working as hard as they do. i want to thank them for showing up when they don't feel like showing up, for putting a smile on their face when they don't feel like it. >> throughout the past nine seasons we've called on some of the greatest entrepreneurial minds in the nation to give you advice on running your small business. well, somewhere north of here there is a jolly man who runs a big operation that involves marketing, motivation and personnel management. his name is santa. and he has some tips that can make your small business merrier in this learning from the pros. >> ho, ho, ho, merry christmas. >> i have a little secret. i don't market heavily. just once a year i come out. that's it. if i was there every day, bam boarding them with stories, and marketing messages, they would stop paying attention. but because i'm only here once a year they do pay attention. i do have a marketing strategy. and i learned this one from my friend seth godin. he wrote a book called all marketers are liers. the thing he said in the book was that good marketers aren't lawyers, they're great story tellers. and that's what i am. so if you look at the tv, they tell stories about santa. if you read books, they tell stories about santa. all the kids know the stories about me. and that's how i get my message out there. >> in the old days it was very difficult. we had a long list. and i had thousands of elves trying to keep track of all these children. now, social media we can find out what people are doing. i have the twitter account and they write in what they want and the same thing on facebook. the adults do it through linked in. so yes, through social media is a wonderful way to stay in contact and keep in touch with the people that i serve. >> i don't understand how ceos just can abdicate talking to their customers. who should be talking to your customers? more than you, of course i have people who answer lots of questions. but i get in there, too. so all business owners need to talk to the people that they serve. we used to make all the toys. a lot of work, a lot of work. let me tell you. what i realized over time is that my core competency wasn't manufacturing. it was distribution. i had the best sleigh in the world. so i could get to everybody's house in one evening. but, manufacturing, let that to the best, so i outsource it. it took a good 75 years, but because i had such a strong brand, we were able to take the time to make those changes. and in the process, we got much more lean. i can't say same thing about myself. but our distribution process is leaner, and we even have our elves have been going off and becoming black belts. everybody finds that a laugh. ho, ho, ho, ho. it's time now to answer some of your business questions so let's get our board of directors in here to help us out. shama hyder is the ceo of the marketing zen group, a digital public relations firm and cori lathan is the co-founder of anthrotronix, a firm specializing in human computer interface design and health care related product development for mobile platforms and renotic business accepts. an e-mail from fay writes how do you ensure that a small business has the cash flow that it needs? okay let's start with you shama. >> first of all, this is a great question. every small business owner should be asking themselves this. how do i protect character flow? and the answer is really simple. that it takes a little effort and execution and that is watch your net terms for payment with your customers or because a lo times clients or customers would say we'd like a net 30 or net 45 and the longer they wait to pay you the harder it is to manage your cash flow. if you can get the payment up front, that would be a perfect scenario. >> right, okay. cory, during the recession particularly we saw so many companies, good companies go out of business simply because they ran out of cash. what can you do to protect yourself against that? >> well, you know, managing cash flow is probably the most important part of your business so that you do not go out of business. and, you know, i would say there's three things. well, first of all, an important skill that you may not have. or, it's because it's not the sexiest part of the business, you may not give it the time that it needs. so, i would say three things. one, find the right person. a trusted cfo, you know, a person who really can give it the attention it needs. number two, find the right tool that gives both you and your team the insight that you need on a day-to-day, week to week, month by month basis. finally, find a great bank that can give you a loan to help you manage through the tough times. >> yeah, it's good to develop that relationship with a bank even when you don't need, particularly, when you don't need the money so that when you do need it, you have this good relationship. >> good terms with them. absolutely. the next question doing business internationally. >> i would like to find out if there is a small business organization that can assist me in importing and exporting my goods to other countries. >> cori, let's start with you because you're based in washington. >> we connect would the small business administration and also started looking into the, there's an actual import/export bank. we're beginning the research ourselves, but those are two great resources we've tapped into. >> i love she's asking the question because you don't need to re-create the wheel right here. people are doing this and you can ask them for help. >> absolutely. two things you can do. one, companies that specialize in helping you manage exports and that's their job. that's what they're used to. that's one for her to look into export management companies and see what they offer. look at the industry that you want to do inport and export in. there is very fashion specific things. if it's retail and actual professional services and based on that i think you'll get a much more direct route to importing or exporting your services. >> go find someone who is not competitive, but vaguely in the same industry who is doing what you're doing and ask them. if you're not competitive, people are often very willing to help each other out. >> as long as you ask. >> finally, a question about finding a mentor. >> what are some of the key resources to reach out to develop a strong mentor network to help a business grow? >> i love this question because it's great to have mentors. it is not easy to find them. so, do you have mentors? >> i do have mentorses. here's the most important thing about getting mentors or getting people to mentor you, especially when you're a business owner or entrepreneur, it's really required that you give back in some ways. you can't see it as a one-way relationship. you can't go up to someone and say, will you please mentor me or look out for me without really being able to bring something to the table. even if you feel, there is nothing i can dofor this person, think any way you can add value. when you approach it from that perspective, people are more committed to giving back and helping someone who they feel isn't just asking for a hand out and looking for mentorship, but is really looking to bring something to the table. >> how do you look at it, cori. i think people often feel shy. they are insecure, they are shy. they don't know even how to approach someone. >> no, i think that's a fantastic point. i fully agree with shawna and that's why for me peer mentoring communities are so important. for example, i'm part of women in technology, which is a vibrant online peer mentoring group. so, you're always, you're contributing to the community at points and you're also maybe asking for help at some points, but it's a win/win. i think the point is it's a community so you're all giving equally, although not always in the same way at the same time. >> i think that's a great, great idea. lots of business groups out there you can join or create informal ones with just people in your community and within your industry online. well, both of you guys, thank you so much. this was great advice. really appreciate, again, allowing us to pick your brains for a little bit. and if any of you out there have a question for our experts, we answer them every single week here on the show. just head on over to our website, the address is openforum.com/yourbusiness or if it's easier for you, just drop us an e-mail. the address is [email protected]. when i was in business school, we were assigned a book called influence which gave all sorts of tips on how to influence people. as you who watch this show a lot know, i recommend that book all the time to small business owners. i basically make it required reading. today i'm excited to talk about bob's new book, "the small big small changes that spark big influence." bob has been studying persuasion for many years and professor of marketing at arizona state university and president of the company influence at work. so good to see you again, bob. >> great to be where you, again, jj, and your viewers. >> so much of what you say has or wrote in your book influenced the way i talk to people. so, i want to start today. we'll do a few of these segments with you. i want to start today by talking about social proof. can you define that for us? >> social proof is a principle of persuasion. people want to follow the lead of those individuals around them like them. so, in any given situation, we'll look to see what the people around us like us are doing and follow suit. >> so, it's so interesting because so many companies feel like they need a celebrity to dorse them. but if you base your ideas on social proof, really, i need my best friend to tell me something. >> exactly. peers are powerful. and as a consequence, people will be moved in a particular direction by simple evidence of what others like them are doing in that situation. >> it's fascinating. so, when we think about that in our own business. when we are trying to attract customers to our business, talk about people who are like our potential customers who are using, right? 80% of moms in this neighborhood use this or whatever you can come up with. >> that's exactly right, jj. so, if you have a financial services company, you can say, you know, most of our customers in your circumstances who are considering retirement or who own small businesses choose this option. it reduces uncertainty and causes people to move in that direction. >> you know, basically, just a short cut. it's a short cut for knowing this is okay. somebody like me said it is okay y don't have to think about it any more. i want to get to one more example before we go and that is the asterisk at the chinese restaurant on the menu. >> i love this study because it shows the cross cultural reach of this phenomenon. people want information about what those around them are doing to help guide them. so, the smallest thing, a restaurant manager could do to increase the likelihood that people would choose particular items on the menu with simplicity itself. they simply put an asterisk next to particular items that said, these are our most popular dishes. and each one became 13 to 20% more popular. >> i love it. bob, you see this in the wine store all the time. recommended. recommended by someone or this is most popular. it's so interesting. i love having you on and talking about this. we'll do two more segments with us that our viewers can watch in the upcoming weeks, but thanks so much for starting us out with social proof. thanks, everyone, so much for joining us today. if you missed anything in the show, just head on over to our website. it's openforum.com/yourbusiness. you'll find all of today's segments, plus some web exclusive content with a lot more information to help your business grow. you can also follow us on twitter. we are @msnbcyourbiz and facebook and instagram, too. we are off for the next two weeks but be back in the new year with some great stories how etsy is turning artists into entrepreneurs. >> i think when i started i saw myself as an artist wanting to be a businesswoman and now i think i'm equal parts of both. >> we'll tell you how the etsy online marketplace has become a training ground for successful online marketers. until then, i'm jj ramberg. and remember, we make your business our business. one thing i've learned is my philosophy is real simple american express open forum is an on-line community, that helps our members connect and share ideas to make smart business decisions. if you mess up, fess up. be your partners best partner. we built it for our members, but it's open for everyone. there's not one way to do something. no details too small. american express open forum. this is what membership is. this is what membership does. was it revenge? good morning, thanks for getting up with us this sunday morning. right now we want to begin with our coverage on the very latest of the fatal shooting of two police officers that took place here in new york city yesterday. a gunman walked up to the window of a patrol car and the two officers were seated inside and he shot them both in the head in broad daylight. >> today two of new york's finest were shot and killed