Vice president bidens president ial campaign has started vetting as a potential running mate for joe biden. So we had the governor of new mexico here last night. Tonight were going to be joined live by the governor of michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, who is also reportedly in contention for that slot. She is also reportedly being vetted by the Biden Campaign as a potential running mate. President trump of course was in Governor Whitmers state today. He was in michigan where he gave a sort of rambly, stream of consciousness, rallytype speech after he toured a ford factory. That was really strange. Then even though everybody in that factory is supposed to wear a mask at all times, the president told the press that they were not allowed to see him in a mask, and thats why he wasnt wearing one there, whereupon nonetheless we promptly got pictures of him in which he appears to be wearing a mask. This one comes from the twitter account of congresswoman jackie speier. You know, another day, another thrill in terms of what it means to cover the surreal, surreal presidency of donald trump. Governor whitmer in michigan is contending not only with that nonsense, shes contending with a serious disaster right now in the central part of her state, in midland county, michigan, where there is fairly catastrophic flooding and serious worries about a superfund site there under the floodwaters. And that is of course on top of michigans ongoing battle with the coronavirus. Michigan has had more than 5,000 of its residents killed by the virus thus far. Only new york, new jersey, and massachusetts have had a higher death toll than michigan thus far. Were going to be speaking again live with Governor Gretchen Whitmer in just a moment tonight. You should also note were going to be speaking tonight with the epidemiologist whose work landed on the front page of the New York Times today. You probablyheadline. Waiting to lock down cost 36,000 american lives. That is the absolute gut punch of a finding from a new study by, among others, a column university epidemiologist. And this is a complicated study. Theres a lot of math here. I mean just look at this for a second. This is part of the study. This is their transmission model. This is from page 14 of their article. The equation on the top there is for daytime transmission. The equation on the bottom is for nighttime transmission of coronavirus. This is like a seriously numer oh logical thing. For the all the math here, the bottom line is the most human thing in the world. The study will just rip your heart out. What all that math is about is the fact that we finally got around as a country in midmarch to putting in broad stayathome orders and starting to tell people to stay away from other people basically to try to slow the spread of the virus. And those restrictions did slow the pace of the spread of the virus. And it slowed the spread of the virus to a degree that you can measure with all this complicated math. It turns out that you can then use that math to figure out what would have happened, sort of build a counterfactual model to figure out what would have happened if we had taken those same actions that we took in the middle of march, but we had taken them a week earlier or two weeks earlier. And the numbers just blow you away. I mean if we had acted nationwide according to this modeling from Columbia University today, if we had acted nationwide just in the way that we did, but we had done it one week earlier on march 8th, 36,000 americans who are dead today would not have died. If we had acted two weeks earlier, if instead of acting on march 15th, we had acted on march 1st, 54,000 american lives would have been saved. Americans who are dead today, whose lives would have never been at risk had we just acted two weeks earlier. But of course, you know, this is where we were at even as of march 9th, saddled with a federal government run by a president who even as of that date was crowing about how, quote, nothing is shut down. Life and the economy go on. Maybe not too much emphasis now on the life part now that we know his dithering for that long cost tens of thousands of americans their lives. Importantly, that epidemiologist is going to come on the air with us tonight to talk about what that modeling tells us not just about when we should have started taking this seriously, but what we should do now from here on out, now that weve got 1. 5 million cases, now that weve got over 95,000 americans dead. This kind of modeling isnt just about what we should regret about the past and who we should blame for inaction in the past. It is helpful for that, but its also fairly prescriptive in terms of whats going to happen next and how we shouldnt make the same mistake twice. And how we should make the next round of decisions we need to make in terms of Public Policy here. Were going to be speaking with Governor Whitmer from michigan. Were going to be speaking with that epidemiologist. Thats all coming up tonight. But we are going to start tonight with what appears to be a really, really urgent situation that is unfolding right now in one Great American city. You might have seen the headlines today about the modeling thats been done to try to account for how people are behaving now as state restrictions get lifted around the country. In particular, theres been quite a lot of coverage of this one bit of modeling from philadelphiabased researchers who are using anonymized mobile phone data to track how people are moving around more as state restrictions get lifted. And using that mobile phone data about how people are actually behaving right now, they are modeling the epidemiological consequences of these new patterns of movement as the states are starting to open up and as people are starting to move around more. And the Washington Post headline about this modeling today put it pretty succinctly. Quote, coronavirus hot spots erupt across the country. Experts warn of second wave in the south. And i know that we keep talking about first waves and second waves and thats sort of part of the jargon of our discussion around this epidemic at this point. But in this case its important to know that when theyre talking about a second wave in the south here, theyre not warning about, like, a second wave in the fall or, you know, in flu season or when it gets cold again. This is a second wave these experts are warning about thats coming right now, over the next four weeks. Quote, according to a Research Team that uses cell phone data to track social mobility and forecast the trajectory of the pandemic, dallas, houston, southeast floridas gold coast, the entire state of alabama, and several other places in the American South that have been rapidly reopening their economies are in danger of a second wave of Coronavirus Infections over the next four weeks. Over the next four weeks, which is worrying if the second wave is coming like now, if the second wave is going to be here for june. But that basic idea does make sense. It does roughly jibe with what were starting to see in terms of data in places that are reopening in texas and in florida and in maryland and, yes, in alabama. We are seeing the reopening of those places coinciding with the case numbers hitting record highs and going back up. I will say the numbers in alabama in particular are unsettling. Every state has one of these sort of coronavirus dashboard things now. Theyve at least got a central website where they do they release basic information from the state about whats going on in the epidemic. And alabama, the states Data Visualization dashboard thingy, i have to tell you is a mess. Literally this is the Data Visualization aid you are greeted with when you first go there. Oh, thats helpful. I see now. I understand, right . It doesnt theres a lot of stuff on the alabama Data Visualization website which makes no sense and is of no help at all. But if you fiddle around with it long enough, eventually you can get the alabama coronavirus data hub to spit out this chart showing the growth in daily case numbers in alabama. And as bad as all of their other Data Visualization stuff is, this is clear, and this is bad. Quote, the average number of new cases reported each day in alabama has been higher in may than any prior month. Before may 5th, alabama had seen only two days with more than 300 new covid cases. Since then, alabama has reported 300plus new cases on 10 out of 15 days. Thats how the rise in alabama cases is summed up and how the state is the worst its been and seeming to get worse every day. So its bad generally speaking in alabama even as the governor there, republican governor kay ivey, keeps insisting every day that Something Else must open up every day, keeps insisting that everythings fine and everything needs to be opened there. That model that i mentioned thats using cell phone data to track mobility and the epidemiological consequences of that, that model could not be more blunt about the risk in alabama right now. Quote, according to the model, alabama will probably experience a steep increase in cases in nearly every county in the state over the course of the next month. So as we are going through this political and policy transformation where every state in the union is opening to a certain degree, and in some states, that might be okay. That might be wise, and in some states it really seems clear it is not a good idea. There really is an alarm ringing for the whole state of alabama right now. Depending on how you look at it in terms of the states own numbers, in terms of the states journalists looking at the numbers, in feterms of modelers everyone is pointing at alabama and saying, this is not good. But if you live in the capital city of the great state of alabama, if you live in montgomery, alabama, specifically, you woke up today to an even louder alarm than everybody else in your state got today because this is what arrived on your doorstep in montgomery as your morning paper today. This is the front page of the Montgomery Advertiser today, and this is how big the headline is montgomery hospitals down to one icu bed. That photo there, that is of the mayor of the city of montgomery. Thats mayor steven reed, and he really does have a bear of an epidemic on his hands. This shows the total cases in montgomery, alabama, over time, how steeply they have risen over time. For an even starker look, this is a graph that shows not just their cumulative cases, their total cases. This is their new cases day by day. Look at the recent days on that. Look at how that is spiking. And that isnt scary just in terms of being an alarming graph. That isnt just scary in math terms. Its not even scary in terms of the forwardlooking implications for the spread of the virus inside that American City. Whats going on in montgomery, alabama, right now is already being lived in terms of real dire consequences. And i use the word dire advisedly because thats what the mayor is calling it right now. The mayor of montgomery, alabama, right now is ringing the alarm bell as loudly as he can. Watch this. Whether you believe this or not, it is a serious issue. Our Health Care System is at a critical point right now, and were at a point that we are now diverting acute care patients to birmingham because of our icu bed shortage. Thats very serious. Right now, if youre from montgomery and you need an icu bed, youre in trouble. If youre from Central Alabama and you need an icu bed, you may not be able to get one because our Health Care System has been maxed out. Right now we are short at baptist east by three beds. Baptist south has zero icu beds. Baptist south in prattville has zero icu beds. And Jackson Hospital not far from here in montgomery has one. I want us to really think about the seriousness of that because none of us know who may need that icu bed today and who may need that this evening, tomorrow, or over this extended memorial day weekend. Mayor steven reed of montgomery, alabama, sounding the alarm. If you are from montgomery and you need an icu bed, youre in trouble. If you are from Central Alabama and you need an icu bed, you may not be able to get one. This is happening right now, montgomery, alabama, and their mayor signaling that the city needs help. Joining us right now is steven reed, the mayor of the great city of montgomery, alabama. Mr. Mayor, thank you so much for making time tonight. I know that you have an incredible amount of work on your plate. Thanks for making time to be here. Thank you for having me, rachel. Let me just ask if what ive described about whats happening in your city and indeed in alabama, if that comports with your understanding or if ive gotten anything wrong in the way that ive described it . No, youre deadon. That was the information that we had yesterday when we did the press conference. We understand that information has changed somewhat. There has been some improvement but not very much in terms of availability in the community. However, were still at a point of crisis in this city because of the lack of icu beds that are available even with some beds being freed up over the last 24 to 48 hours. I think the thing that is so worrying from a National Perspective thinking about whats going on in your city is that as we see rural outbreaks, places where theyve got maybe a prison or some Nursing Homes or a meatpacking plant or something, where its a rural area but theyve got workplacebased outbreaks and so theyve had large spikes in cases, sometimes i feel like im recognizing this pattern now. Well get reports from Rural America that theres a place where theres only one hospital or theres only two hospitals, and theyre getting overwhelmed, and they need help. What youre describing in montgomery is a goodsized American City with a handful of hospitals. Its not like montgomery just has one or two hospitals. Youve got a reasonably sized Health Care System there. But it sounds like all of the facilities in your city are being taxed and that the system as a whole is essentially over capacity even if you factor in all of the different places that people could go to get treated. Is that fair . Youre exactly right. Were at a place right now because of the decimation of our rural Health Care System in alabama and throughout this country, where we have people that come from as far away as 80 miles in towns that are big and small that depend on montgomery as a health care capital. They come here to get medical care, and they come here to get taken care of. And unfortunately because of that, not only are we here to support our residents and the city of montgomery and the county itself, but were supporting the entire area. I think what we have to look at is this covid19 virus has really exposed the gaps in our Health Care System both in terms of those who can get access to it and those who have access to it, what it can sustain. And were in a very serious situation here because of the trends that youve highlighted on your show and what the numbers are saying and what has happened here over the last few weeks since we reopened the economy. Now, the reopening is not something that is a fait accompli. It continues, and the governor continues to make these announcements. I mean it was yesterday that you gave that stark warning about the icus in your city essentially being full and needs to offload patients to birmingham. And then it was today that Governor Ivey further relaxed restrictions in the state for theaters and summer camps and schools and athletic activities. I have to think that those statewide decisions that the governor is making, they dont really seem to match up with the experience in montgomery both in terms of the number of cases youve got but how taxed your resources already are in terms of whether you can handle more cases. It seems like theres a real disconnect there. Well, i think there is. You know, weve had different hot spots around the state over the last couple of months, and right now in montgomery, were at a point where we can see the cliff, and we dont want to get too close to it for fear of falling off. And thats why we sounded the alarm yesterday leading up to this memorial day weekend. And i think when you look at montgomery, weve tested less than 4 of our population. Weve doubled our cases month over month. Weve had week to week increases of over 40 this month alone. Were in a very dangerous predicament, and i think parts of the state may be doing a little better for now, but i dont think that the economy should have been opened at the time that it was. I think that we should have slowed our reopening and done some things a little bit differently because what i think it has done, it has sent a message that the battle with covid19 is over and it has been won, and were still in this battle. And we cant afford to relax now and lose much of the progress that weve made over these last few weeks. And make no mistake about it. Our first responders, our medical personnel, our frontline workers, theyve done a great job. Members of the community have stepped up to do things over and beyond to help their neighbors and to help their family and just to help out in any way they can. But it doesnt help us if were doing those things only for us to take two steps back by prematurely trying to get back to our normal routines of what was normal prior to this pandemic. Steven reed, mayor of the great city of montgomery, alabama. Sir, thank you so much for taking time for us tonight. Were going to be checking in with hospitals in your city. Well do our best to stay on this story as your city continues to struggle with these real high case numbers. But please keep us apprised if there are things you feel like the country needs to know about what youre going through. Wed love to help you get the word out, sir. Thank you. Thank you for having me. All right. I will say, you know, theres been a lot of happy talk about the course of the epidemic from the very beginning, from the very top, which delayed our initial response, which likely cost tens of thousands of lives in america. Well be talking about that more later on this hour. But part of the happy talk that were getting right now, particularly on the political right, is that, look, the reopenings happening and everythings fine. Everythings fine. Well, first of all, when people get exposed, it takes a couple of weeks for it to turn up in terms of people getting tested, having positive results, and turning up in the hospital and ultimately turning up critically ill. And so all the premature celebration about look how great the opening up is, is ignorant. But this idea that its just a theoretical that our Health Care Systems will be overtaxed or will come to capacity as reopening fuels a surge in more cases, its not a hypothetical. Its happening right now in montgomery, alabama. Ignoring that because you like the reopening doesnt make that go away. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is going to join us live next. Stay with us. Next stay with us refunding our customers a portion of their personal auto premiums. Were also offering flexible Payment Options for those whove been financially affected by the crisis. We look forward to returning to something that feels a little closer to life as we knew it, but until then you can see how were here to help at libertymutual. Com covid19. [ piano playing ] stimulant laxatives forcefully stimulate i switched to miralax for my constipation. The nerves in your colon. Miralax works with the water in your body to unblock your system naturally. 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The other was the sanford dam up river from midland, michigan, which has a population of 42,000 people. Now midland, michigan, has been inundated with whats been called a 500year flood. Roof tops were barely visible under the floodwaters. Hundreds of homes got swamped, many of them totally destroyed. Local roads washed out or left impassable. People who live in the area were told it could take another four or five days before the floodwaters recede there, before they can even start to clean up. People evacuated from their homes have been put up in some cases in temporary shelters set up around the city. At midland michigan high school, Senior Citizens make up about 90 of the crowd that is now sleeping in the gym there, and that of course is not ideal in terms of the other crisis in michigan right now, the crisis weve all got now in terms of the coronavirus epidemic. Not a great time to have people sheltering in congregate facilities, particularly mostly elderly people. Late last night, michigans Governor Gretchen Whitmer sent a letter to President Trump requesting a federal emergency declaration. As it happens, President Trump was in michigan today giving a weird campaignlike speech at a ford plant. The president granted the governors request for federal assistance to augment the state and local response. Thats of note because it comes right after he threatened earlier this week to withhold all federal aid for michigan because the state was going ahead with plans to make voting easier and less risky during the epidemic. Today Governor Whitmer described the damage in midland as truly devastating. She said it was unlike anything we have seen before. She noted the incredibly stressful nature of an operation to get 10,000 people out of a flood zone while maintaining social distancing. With everything going on, Governor Whitmer has agreed to join us live tonight, for which i am very grateful. Ive got lots of questions for her about this fairly desperate situation in Central Michigan, her states latest efforts to combat the coronavirus, which has now killed over 5,000 people in her state. Its the fourth highest death toll in the country. I also want to talk to her about what shes calling the opening conversation she had with Vice President bidens team, which reportedly has her on their list of potential running mates. Last time Governor Whitmer was here on the show, she really did not want to talk to me about that last thing, but i will ask her again, and shell probably blow me off again. Ill try. Governor whitmer joins us live next. Governor whitmer joins us e next aleve it. Aleve is proven stronger and longer on pain than tylenol. When pain happens, aleve it. All day strong. Your bank can be virtually any place you are. You can deposit checks from here. And you can see your transactions and check your balance from here. And pay bills from here. 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Talk to your veterinarian and learn more at itchingforhelp. Com. This virus is testing all of us. And its testing the people on the front lines of this fight most of all. So abbott is getting new tests into their hands, delivering the critical results they need. And until this fight is over, we. Will. Never. Quit. Because they never quit. Joining us now for the interview is Governor Gretchen Whitmer of the great state of michigan. And, boy, does she have a lot to contend with right now. Governor, you are dealing with an emergency at home. You are dealing with this ongoing epidemic. You are dealing with a strange visit from the president today. Thank you for making time in the middle of all this to be here with us tonight. Thank you, rachel. Let me ask you first about this historic flooding in your state. This is a crisis that you could see coming. You ordered people evacuated out of harms way before those dams failed or were overwhelmed. But it seems to me, as least as best as i can tell, that this is a crisis that is not over. Not only have floodwaters not receded, but are you expected there may be further evacuations, that other towns may be in danger . Were concerned, and were watching it very closely. We know too that there is more precipitation in the forecast, and so were taking this very seriously. Ill just acknowledge the fact that were in the midst of a global epidemic, on top of that dealing with a 500year flood event, which are of course becoming more and more frequent. Weve got Climate Change as a part of that but also old infrastructure as well. We were able to evacuate 10,000 people in the midst of all of this, and as of our conversation now, weve not found any casualties. And it really is a testament. I know people see the footage of whats going on at the capitol and protests, but whats really happening in the state of michigan is people are rising to the challenge and helping one another. Weve flattened our curve. People have displaced from their homes. When i went to midland, i was so inspired by the attitude of the people who are all Wearing Masks and chipping in to help each other in the midst of these two crises. And it was really inspiring. Weve got a lot of tough stuff to deal with and tough things that were trying to confront together, but i think you can see bits of humanity every day in this, and thats what keeps us going. Let me ask you about the way these two emergencies sort of dovetailed in your state. Obviously Emergency Planning when you think about the need to evacuate large numbers of people, as you said, 10,000 people in very short order in advance of an impending dam failure, thats a specific kind of Emergency Planning. To have to integrate that with social distancing and Infection Control protocols that are so unusual, so unfamiliar, something that weve never done before this epidemic, i mean how do you integrate those two imperatives . How do you evacuate people and keep them safe and put them up in shelters while also preventing them from giving each other coronavirus . Well, its really incredible. When i went to the state Emergency Operations center to call for the evacuation and to declare a state of emergency on tuesday night, i found myself saying this is a once in a lifetime event. And i found myself saying this again, right . Ive said it many times over the last ten weeks here in michigan, and yet here we are. And were going to grit our teeth and get through this and help one another out. The local Emergency Operations center was on top of this, and they worked seamlessly with the state Emergency Operations center. But theyve done phenomenal work, and i think that the planning and all of the different agencies, the Michigan National guard, the Michigan State police combining with what was happening at the local level have really contributed to an organization that helped save people. But were going to have our work cut out for us, and its going to take a while to come back from this. Theres no question. On the issue of the epidemic, per your executive order in the state, anybody whos medically able to do has to wear something that covers their face in enclosed spaces. The whole country watched today as the president sort of personally, gleefully flouted that by talking to the press today on his visit to your state, when he visited that ford plant and he didnt wear a mask, at least for most of that visit. The photos did later surface of him apparently at other parts of the plant wearing a mask. But when he was talking to the press, he was sort of bragging about the fact that he wasnt doing so. I just wanted to ask your response to that. Its Public Health behavior modeling by the president at one level, but its also specifically flouting your order in the state. Well, its disappointing. It wasnt surprising, but it was disappointing. I think that our big three have just started the reengagement, right . They are phasing in reengaging after what has been a stayathome order, and the uaw members are concerned about their safety naturally. They worked very closely. The head of the uaw has worked very closely with the head of the big three to make sure that his members would be safe when they went back to the workplace. As you saw in the funootage, al of the ford executives wore the masks. All of the employees were Wearing Masks. All of the press were. And its really important that anyone with a platform has a responsibility to make sure that they model precisely what were asking everyone else to do. This is about Public Health, not one persons or another. This is about all of us, and anyone in a position of power and responsibility i hope emulates and does precisely what theyre asking everyone else to do. One of the things that we talked about the last time you were here, governor, is an effort to try to get everybody in Nursing Homes in michigan tested. I know that you have been pursuing that. I know that youve also in michigan been pursuing a plan to try to get everybody in Michigan State prisons tested, and that has turned up some large numbers of positive prisoners in some state correctional facilities. I have to ask you now that youre further along into those projects, if you feel like you have clarity or if there are Lessons Learned in terms of what you do with that information when youve got it, once you know that youve got an epidemic, once you know that youve got an outbreak in a dangerous place for the spread of this virus like a prison or like a nursing home, do you understand what the right protocols should be that go into effect in terms of separating people with the virus from people who dont have it . Yeah, so obviously with a novel virus like this, we are learning an incredible amount every single day, and we have been really ramping up our testing in michigan. Were now in the top six both in numbers of tests done and numbers per million. Thats something to be proud of. We have tested a lot of people in our Nursing Homes and in our prisons. We have learned from that, and weve got protocols that we have developed in conjunction with our Nursing Homes to make sure that we are able to keep people safe. This is a challenge, but we the more information we have, the better we can take actions that will protect people, and thats why this testing is so important. Weve been behind the eight ball as a nation when it comes to testing. Were still struggling to make sure that weve got all of the appropriate swabs we need so that our testing capabilities were up to the maximum on all fronts. Weve made great strides, but theres no question theres a lot more work to do. Im also proud that we have been one of the first states to release racial data that we have been able learn in this process as well so that we can identify the fact that this has a disproportionate impact on communities of color. Im hopeful that every state in the nation is ultimately sharing that data so that we do the hard work of learning the lessons. This virus is holding up a mirror to the United States of america, and we better learn lessons and come out of this determined to do better. Governor whitmer, i asked you the last time you were here about reports that the Biden Campaign had approached you about potentially being vetted to be his running mate for the forthcoming campaign against President Trump and mike pence in the fall, and you absolutely did not want to talk about it. And i can tell just from looking at you that you do not want to talk about it again right now. But im going to press you on it a little bit because these reports continue. We believe that those opening conversations have happened, and its a really important thing as the country is trying to figure out who joe biden might pick and whether or not that person is ready to be president. Can you tell us anything at all about that process, whether or not that vetting is happening and whether or not you look forward to the scrutiny and potentially joining that campaign . Heres what i can tell you, that they have got a Phenomenal Group of people to vet, and there are a lot of phenomenal Women Leaders across this country who would make a great running mate for joe biden. And no matter who it is, i am going to be a strong ally, and im because this is a crucial election, and i believe in joe biden. I believe he will make a great president , and no matter what way that goes, i am going to be helping and counting on us, you know, to move forward as a country and learn the lessons from this horrible experience weve been going through together. Governor Gretchen Whitmer of the great state of michigan, thank you for at least entertaining my question to the degree that you did. I know thats not your favorite thing to talk about. Thank you, governor. And good luck to you. I know youve got every governor is dealing with a lot right now in terms of this epidemic, but it just feels like you are being you are fielding more than most. Please keep us apprised. Wed love to have you back. Tough times dont last but tough people through. Thank you for shining that light here on michigan. We appreciate it. I hear you, governor. Thank you. All right. Coming up next here, were going to be speaking with the epidemiologist whose study was on the front page of the New York Times today. The study that says that had we acted one week, even one week earlier as a country while the president was insisting nothing needed to be done about this virus, tens of thousands of american whos have since died would not have died. Thats next. Stay with us. 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You fell asleep with your sign again. No, i didnt. Okay. Switch to progressive and you can save hundreds. You know, like the sign says. Get a free footlong. Just buy one and get one free. When you order in the app with contactless payment for quick and easy pickup. Thats buy one, get one free. For a limited time only. Epidemiological news isnt often the kind of thing that makes you feel like your heart is breaking, but thats what this did today. Quote, if the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in march, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers. And if the country had been locking down cities and limiting social contact on march 1st, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nations deaths, but 83 , would have been avoided. Quote, under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer americans would have died by early may. So just one week earlier on what we did, something we know we are capable of doing because we did it, if wed just done it one week earlier, 36,000 americans who died would have been saved. If we did it two weeks earlier, 54,000 americans who are dead would not have lost their lives. It just breaks your heart because its so possible that we could have done it. But thats how the New York Times today describes the findings of this new modeling from researchers at Columbia University. A model is just that. Its a model. It cant tell us for certain what might have been, but their method of arriving at these estimates is pretty straightforward and compelling even for those of us who arent scientists. The researchers looked at how transmission of coronavirus slowed down starting in midmarch when social distancing and the shutdown of schools and businesses really did take hold across much of the country. They took that realworld data and essentially mapped it backwards in time. What if that slowing curve of virus transmission, what if slowing of the transmission of the virus had begun a week earlier when the epidemic was one week younger, one week smaller in terms of how many people were already infected . What if those things had been put in place two weeks earlier when the epidemic was two weeks younger, when we had two weeks less of people getting infected and those people infecting others and those people infecting others . This very simply is what it looks like. That steep red line on the top is what we lived through or died from, right . Thats the number of coronavirus deaths in the United States through may 3rd. Below that you see the line showing where the death toll would have been if the lockdowns had begun one week or two weeks earlier. All of that excess death, all of it avoidable. In all of these scenarios, the First American deaths happened around the same time. It is the increase in deaths over time that gets slowed down and that gets so drastically reduced. The times today also translated these findings into maps. On the left youll see the actual number of deaths that weve had. On the right, the number of deaths if social distancing had begun a week earlier. And the first thing you notice is that not only would deaths have been reduced by more than half, the deaths would have happened in fewer places, which suggests the virus would have been kept from spreading as widely as it did across the country. Some places would have been spared entirely. And on the one hand, this is about the past. This is more data for us to use in evaluating what has already happened in our governments terrible, dithering mismanagement of the epidemic. And certainly this raises upsetting and haunting questions for the loved ones of americans who have died. But this isnt just about regret and what we did wrong in the past. This is also about not making the same mistake again. These models would also seem to hold a warning about our next steps. It would seem to hold a warning about the future. From the times today, quote, the results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flareups. Just as we needed to stop this thing when it was small from the outset, we need to stop new outbreaks when theyre small too. Columbia epidemiologist jeffrey shamans team estimated the effect of relaxing all control measures across the country. Their model finds that because of the lag between the time infections occur and symptoms begin emerging, without extensive testing and rapid action, many more infections will occur leading to more de h deaths, as many as tens of thousands of deaths across the country. Joining us now is dr. Jeffrey shaman, professor of Environmental Health sciences at Columbia University school of Public Health. Hes the lead of the Research Team that did this modeling. Dr. Shaman, i appreciate you making time to be here tonight. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me, rachel. So i am a lay observer of these things, and i read your study. I got tripped up by the math, but ive read the reporting on it as well. Let me just ask you first if ive explained anything wrong or if ive misunderstood anything what you and your colleagues have found. I think you summarized it very well. I think the important thing were trying to do here is not look retrospectively and look at what might have been, but to use that information to inform how we go forward and how we have to be very vigilant with this virus. Were not done with this pandemic by any stretch. Most of the country has not been exposed to it, has not been infected. And its really vital that we actively seek it out in our communities, that we monitor what is happening with the transmission of the virus in communities as we loosen restrictions and reopen the economy further and further to make sure that we dont have flareups. And if we identify growth in cases, we have to clamp down quickly. We have to respond more quickly because as you said, if you get the virus when the outbreak is young, when its in the early stages, youre going to limit the number of deaths that will accrue over time. Can you put a little more meat on the bones of that basic idea . I feel like it makes sense just when i think about it qualitatively that getting it early is better and that if you get it early, it doesnt grow as large. What i was shocked by in your model is the quantitative difference, that just one week, just a few days would make such a huge difference in the number of people who ultimately died over a couple of months. Can you explain just in laymans terms why the numbers are so dramatically affected by even a few days difference in Response Time . Well, it is very staggering, and i think its important to actually quantify it so that you see just how strong that response is. When youre dealing with the growth of a virus in a fully susceptible population, its going through a doubling process. Its growing exponentially, and its very important to remember that doubling processes really can sneak up at you. They seem to start very small and insignificant and not be of much consequence, but they really can swell and overwhelm you kind of like a tsunami wave. There are many examples youll hear in mathematics where theyll try to explain it simply. One of my favorites is this idea that you have a pond and theres this invasive lily flower that gets into it. Every day it doubles in size or doubles the number that are there. And by, lets say, day 30, the entire pond is covered with lilies. The question is, well, on what day was it halfway covered with lilies . And the answer is day 29, just the day before, because it is a doubling process. By jumping on this virus earlier, you are really going to circumvent that growth. Youre going to squash that growth down, and youre going to prohibit the number of people who are going to subsequently be infected by taking early action. Its a very strange and horrifying, compounding process that this goes through when its spreading through a community. And as a consequence, its really vital that we reach out and monitor whats going on in our communities actively. We cant get complacent with this. There is a risk of that, particularly as were moving into summer, particularly because the virus may be seasonal and less transmissible during summer, that were going to get complacent and feel like we have this thing under control. But we have to get in this for the long haul and understand we want to keep this virus squashed. We want to really reduce the levels to a low number of cases per day Going Forward while we hold on until we can get a vaccine thats effective or effective therapeutics. Dr. Jeffrey shaman, professor at Columbia University school of Public Health, thank you for being here tonight. That key insight that that dynamic that was true at the outset is also true with now outbreaks Going Forward, its just a gamechanging understanding. Thank you so much for helping us understand it, sir. Youre welcome. Have a good night. You too. Well be right back. Stay with us. Darrells family uses gain flings now so their laundry smells more amazing than ever. [woman] isnt that the dogs towel . Hey, me towel su towel. More gain scent plus oxi boost and febreze in every gain fling. That Liberty Mutual customizes your insurance, i just love hitting the open road and telling people so you only pay for what you need [squawks] only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. [female vo] restaurants are facing a crisis. And theyre counting on your takeout and delivery orders to make it through. Grubhub. Together we can help save the restaurants we love. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Thanks for being with us tonight. Its good to have you here. I will see you again tomorrow night, same bat time, same bat channel. Now its time for the last word with lawrence odonnell. Good evening, lawrence. Good evening, rachel. How old do you have to be to get that reference because that show batman, hasnt the batman reference lives forever. Its eternal. Oh, it does . Okay. Im just thinking todays college kids they might not hey, rachel, tonight is short list night here on msnbc. You had Governor Gretchen Whitmer in the last hour and you did what you could on the Vice President ial question. And senator Kamala Harris is going to join me in this hour. We all know that theyre on the short list for Vice President because joe biden made it easy. He told us its going to be a woman. Im not sure what there is to what truth is there to try to pull here . Oh, am i losing are you losing my sound . I cant hear you anymore
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