Escape from a lab. No, a it is not proven, so nobody should be saying it let alone the seth of the state or the president , but to their own political point, it is defeating. Anyway, as always, you have mastered the facts and made things make sense for me. Thank you. Appreciate that. Thanks to you at home for joining us this hour. Happy to have you with us. So the american correspondence epidemic is now approaching, coronavirus epidemic is now approaching 1. 2 million confirmed cases and well over 68,000, nearly 69,000 deaths. Which means the epidemic in our country is more than five times larger than the epidemic in any other country on earth. That said, in the one state in our country where more americans have died than any other, at least thus far, there have been some sort of positive touch stones that have been hit over the past few day, some good moments, and the javi it. Z center, the gigantic con skren, Convention Center in new york city that was a geeld hospital to take overflow from new york city hospitals, they have closed it down, they have treated over a thousand patients there at the javits center, they have closed it down, the fdny and bab pipers were onsite to cheer for the closing which feels like a real blessing. The u. S. Navy hospital ship comfort has closed up its new york operations and has set sail. It has started the return trip to its home port in northern virginia. After that ship treated hundreds of overflow hospital patients while floating in new york harbor. Also, the popup hospital in central park that was built to take overflow patients from the mount sinai hospital system, as of today, that central park popup hospital is not going to be taking in any further patients. We understand that theyve apparently still got some small number of patients there, but they are not admitting any new ones anymore, with an eye toward closing down that facility as well. That was all, all three of those entities were emergency Surge Capacity for new york, right . Well, new york is passed that point, in a way that feels fairly stable, specifically in new york. Cases and hospitalizations and deaths all now declining, in what appears to be a stable way. And that is great. It gives you hope, to see those facilities, closed down, because they are not needed, because new york has the Hospital Capacity it needs to handle the remaining challenges of the epidemic. I also want to show you something that new yorks Governor Andrew Cuomo said today, when he fielded questions on Nursing Homes, where in new york, like everywhere, the case numbers and the death numbers are still staggering. Watch what he said here. Were doing everything we can. The Nursing Homes, were working very hard. We also announced an investigation with the attorney general, and the department of health, to make sure the Nursing Homes are doing what they need to do. Many of them are privately run, but the state can regulate them. They have to notify families, et cetera. So were doing an investigation on that. But remember the basic premise of the nursing home. The nursing home can only accept or keep a patient if, if they can provide adequate care for that patient. If they have a covid patient, or noncovid patient, but they cant provide adequate care for that person, it is their obligation to transfer the person. If they cant find a place to transfer the person, it is their obligation to call the state department of health, and the state department of health will transfer the person. We have facilities for covid nursing home residents. We have some facilities that are just for covidpositive nursing home residents. So we have those facilities available. If a nursing home cant care for a covid resident, call the department of health, the department of health will transfer the patient. Period. We have those facilities available. If a nursing home in new york state, cannot care for a covid19 positive resident, call the state department of health. The state department of health will transfer the patient. Period. No state has figured out yet how to focus enough resources and enough attention and enough help and enough focus on Nursing Homes and longterm care facilities, to keep those facilities from being the riskiest place in america, when it comes to american lives at risk from this virus. But what Governor Cuomo of new york is saying here today, is, its qualitatively different than some stuff you have heard in other states. It is qualitatively different than a state just declaring Nursing Homes to be a priority or a state announcing, you know, state forces that will tackle nursing home problems and also about getting testing into every nursing home and that is important but this is different. The department of state, is taking on the responsibility to get this done themselves when the Nursing Homes cant. They have set up nursing home units, specifically for people with coronavirus. If the facility, the facility out in new york state, cant care for a specific coronavirus patient, quote, the state department of health will take them. The nursing home cannot care for a covid patient, call the department of health, and the state will transfer the patient. We have those facilities available. I mean i dont know if this will be the best idea either. But this shows taking it to another level. This is another way, and another level of commitment to try to tackle this problem. Which is good. And it shows new york as a state continuing to innovate. In terms of the thorniest parts of this crisis, even as they have dealt with the largest numbers of hospitalization and death in the country, inspiration are the cure to despair and we need innovation when it comes to the issue of Nursing Homes and the number of americans who are at risk and dying in them. So seeing that at work, seeing innovation, seeing a new level of commitment, we will take responsibility. We have set up those facilities. Seeing that work in the scariest most dangerous, most risky part of this ep demdic, that is good. I found that heartening. That is good. And heres the bad. You might remember these projections. Youve seen a lot of them just in tv news, maybe in the newspaper as well, ive certainly seen them online, this is the very userfriendly very easytounderstand projection model created at the university of washington at the institute for Health Metrics and evaluation. This institute at the university of washington has been doing modeling that has been really central for weeks now to our own National Expectations of what were going through, and how long it will last, and how bad it will ultimately get. These projections from this one entity at the university of washington have been really popular, really widely used and widely cited. They do nationwide protections. They also do them state by state, and because their interface online is so easy to use, it is sort of addictive to look at individual states, to click through for all of the states where you have family and where you have friends, to see where they are in their curve and when it is going to be the worse and how theyre doing overall. This has also been a very useful tool for policy makers because this university of washington model, predicts not just how many deaths and hospitalizations and infections youre likely to have in any particular state, it predicts when thats going to happen. When the peak will happen. Peak hospitalization. Right . Peak death. Thats helpful in terms of planning for hospital utilization, right . When and weather your state might need say a popup field hospital, or a Convention Center conversion by the army corps of engineers or a visit from one of our Navy Hospital ships. Its helpful to know that stuff so you can put a date on when its going to be the worst. New york has passed its worst and sent some of the Surge Capacity back to where it came from. Helpful to have this for planning with not just numbers but projected dates this. University of washington model in particular has also had a lot of National Attention because it has been repeatedly showcased by the Trump Administration, by the white house, by the Coronavirus Task force, with its rotating cast of people who happen momentarily to be in favor with the president. In early april, this university of washington model was the projection that said that by the first week in august, the total u. S. Death toll would be 60,000 deaths. Well, it didnt take us until the first week of august to get to 60,000 dead. We hit that before the end of april. At the very end of april, april 29th, the university of washington model was revised, to project that it would now be more like 74,000 american deaths by the first week in august. Well, its only the first week in may, and were already over 68,000, nearly 69,000, so clearly, that seems wrong, too. I mean that was all of this month, and all of june, and all of july stretching out before us, we wont have to wait until the first week of august to get to 74,000 dead. But heres the thing. This model from the university of washington, its not nuts. I mean it has repeatedly projected death numbers for the United States that are too optimistic. In terms of the american epidemic. For sure. Its hard not to conclude that thats part of why the white house kept talking about this model so much. The president likes happy talk about how everything is going great, and the virus will soon magically disappear, right . So models that predict a lower death toll than what were actually experiencing, he cant resist that and apparently neither can the people who he inviting up to the podium that say things that make him happy. That model, as i said, its not nuts. Its a serious thing. The institute for Health Metrics and evaluation at the university of washington, which has been making these projection, they have been totally open and transparent about their methodology and about the underlying assumptions for their model. And it turns out one of their really important underlying assumptions for that model was that people in the United States would stay home to stop the spread of the virus, that all states would put those stay at home rules in effect, that those stay at home rules would be kept in place, as long as they needed to be in place. And that people would abide by those rules. That was the assumption that led to them projecting 60 or 70,000 deaths. That was a basic assumption baked into their projections. Well, not anymore. Today, this university of Washington Group has unveiled what they are calling the ihme, the institute for Health Metrics and evaluation, the ihme, covid19 model 2. 0. In which, among other things, they start assuming that the United States will actually do what is needed to stop the spread of the virus. They are no longer rosecolored glasses, assuming, but there will be consistent coherent leadership in this country that establishes consistent coherent stayathome orders that people are consistently coherently required to follow. They are no longer assuming therefore that americans will abide by the stay at home rules. Since were not doing that, they need to stop assuming thats what well do, or theyll never have numbers that are anywhere close to accurate. The director of the institute that does this modeling explained to reporters today that quote, the primary reason for the increase in their new projection, in terms of the american death toll, is that many states have prematurely relaxed social distancing. Quote, for the first time, dr. Murray explained, the model is factoring in data from four different cell phone providers showing a major uptick in americans going out in public. This rise in mobility in the last week or ten days is likely leading to an increase in transmission. And so bottom line, because we are screwing this up so badly, as a matter of Public Policy, because we as a country are screwing this up so badly, in terms of our political leadership, and the, you know, the hear no evil, see no evil, speak plenty of evil, encouragement, about everything needs to open back up right now, no matter what, right, because of, because of that. Because of what we are doing. Because of the political mishandling of the Public Health imperatives of this crisis. Because of what we are doing wrong. Even this optimistic forecast that the white house has liked so much over the past couple of months, now, they are nearly doubling their projection of the number of americans who will be dead from this thing by the first week in august. Their projection is no longer it will be 74,000 of us dead by the first week in august. Theyre now projecting it will be 134,000 of us dead. And again, thats by the first week in august. And forgive me, but that projection, that updated projection, that horrible almost updated projection, may still be optimistic, given what the institute explains about their revised assumptions now. They are no longer assuming that were going to have stayathome orders, and do social distancing, and abide by those things, because were not, so they shouldnt assume those things anymore, but they are now assuming that we will have, quote, rising testing and Contact Tracing, that will, in the words of the institutes director put the brakes on transmission. So theyre no longer assuming we have stayathome orders because we dont, but they are assuming that testing will ramp up and Contact Tracing will ramp up and thats the way we will stop transmission. Raise your hand if you think nationally we are going to really soon have access to easy testing for everyone. And really well organized Contact Tracing all over the country. Raise your hand if you think this white house is going to lead us to that bright future, in time to put the brakes on transmission, through shear Public Health investment and competence in government. And that will result in us only having well, i dont even want to say it. Heres something you should know. I mentioned that this university of washington projection has been a favorite of the Trump Administration. I think its impossible not to suppose that thats potentially at least related to the fact that this model has had a projected american death toll that has been much lower than some other projections and the president as i said likes happy talk about this virus. Let me show you something. Here is a screen shot from the cdcs web site as of yesterday. This is courtesy of the good folks at the internet archive, the wayback machine. This, as of yesterday, is the cdcs coronavirus resources page, where they list a whole bunch of different projections and models that they respect and you might want to look at and you can see that the university of washington model, the institute for Health Metrics and evaluation model that ive just been talking about, it is right there on the cdc web site right prominent place on top. That was yesterday. Today is the day they upped the projected death toll for the United States from 74,000 to 134,000 dead americans. Today is also presto the day the cdc dropped this model from their list of models that you should look at. For weeks now, they have been promoting this model, showcasing it, talking about it in the White House Briefing room, a prominent place on the cdc web site, now that model doesnt say we will have 74,000 deaths, now we will have more than 130,000 deaths so they have just take continue off the web site dont. Look at that anymore. Its so, its pitiful, right . And it is one thing to see the white house pulling stuff like this. But this is the cdc. Who we should be able to count on. Right . Youre supposed to be datadriven. Youre supposed to be sciencedriven. If their theres bad news in the science, youre supposed to be willing to tell us the bad news, so we can compare and try to change course. The New York Times is also first to report today, on an internal document, inside the Trump Administration, with the cdcs logo on it, a document the cdc is now apparently disavowing, which actually has a worse projection now than the new terrible university of washington projection. In that university of washington model, theyre saying, by june 1st, less than a month from right now, our daily death toll in this country will be 890 deaths a day. While the other internal projection reported today by the New York Times says that by june 1st, we wont be at 800 and something deaths per day, we will be at 3,000 deaths per day, which is nearly double what were at right now. And well be there in less than a month. This internal document that has the cdcs logo on it also says that from the 25,000 new cases were getting each day, were going to go up to 175,000 new cases a day. Which honestly is just sort of terrifying thinking about the next month. Remember, when mike pence said like last week this whole thing will be over by memorial day . He said the whole thing will be in our Rearview Mirror by memorial day which is later this month. I mean inside the Trump Administration, theyre projecting privately that well be at 3,000 deaths a day, a week after memorial day. With no decline in sight. For context, were at about 1750 deaths. Er day on average right now. That internal document for the Trump Administration says it will be 1750 deaths on average, today, to 3,000 a day, inside a month. Lori garrett, the Pulitzer Prize winning science journalist who helped sound