Office into his investigation into the trump russia scandal. The special council is apparently ready to start interviews with a half dozen to a dozen white house personnel, including reince priebus, former white house Spokesman Sean Spicer and the Current Communications director, hope hicks. Were going to have more on that news ahead, including what we now know to be the special councils interest in some behavior by the Trump White House early on in the administration which we didnt know before now that the special counsel was investigating. Some of those dots have been connected in terms of that special council investigation. That story is ahead tonight. If you are a ford truck person im a ford truck person you may be familiar with the term king ranch. All full size american pickups come in lots of different trim levels now. Some of them are very luxurious given that these are trucks, but for a long time, even before the current luxury truck trend took hold across all the different truck makers, for a long time now one of the top of the line luxury models you could get in a ford pickup was called the king ranch edition. It has unusually colored seats, big kink rang ranch logos. Its not just a butch sounding name for a Leather Seats package in a truck. King ranch is a real thing. Its the biggest ranch in texas. King ranch in texas is gigantic, about 1300 square miles. The king ranch holds a special place in the history of america hurricanes. This is a chart that was published today by 538. Com using data from the National Hurricane center and other sources. Although it just looks like a bunch of zeros there, this is, if you know how to look at this, this is basically the history of hurricanes in the United States. The x axis there, thats just a timeline. It starts at 1850 on the lefthand side and it proceeds decade by decade all the way until now. The y axis, the numbers that go up and down on the left side of the chart, that is sustained wind speed in these various storms. Clearly whats scary right now about looking at this chart today is that way up there at the top of the chart, our current hurricane is also very close to the top of the chart in terms of wind speed. Irma is the storm thats been cutting through the caribbean, bearing down now on florida, but you can see there we have almost never had a hurricane with sustained wind speeds this high in the whole history of hurricanes in the United States. That said, there is one. There is one hurricane on this list which is above irma in terms of its wind speed. You can see it right there on the graph. Its labeled allen, 1980. Hurricane allen. No hurricane that has hit the United States has ever had a higher sustained wind speed than hurricane allen did in 1980. Allen had 190 mile per hour winds. As it carved its way through the caribbean, hurricane allen did a ton of damage to haiti and killed several hundred people in haiti as that storm made its way across the caribbean toward the United States. But it then took its turn up through the gulf of mexico and forecasters believed at the time that allen was going to make a direct hit on Corpus Christi texas. Its a pretty good size city, about 330,000 people. In 1980 it had about 230,000 people. Still a very good sized city. They saw this hurricane with 190 mile an hour winds making a bead for Corpus Christi in 1980 and it felt like it might be the end of the world, right . Nobody had ever seen winds that massive on a densely populated area. Now, what happened with hurricane allen in 1980 is that it did ultimately cause damage in Corpus Christi and flooding in floor. They got hit with a ninefoot storm surge from hurricane allen which is a lot, particularly for a town thats less than seven feet above sea level. But hurricane allen, despite those 190 mile an hour winds, unprecedented winds, winds that have still never been matched by any other american storm, hurricane allen did not end up being one of the alltime deadliest hurricanes in u. S. History. And that is simply and only because hurricane allen moved. It had been due to directly hit Corpus Christi, again with the highest sustained winds of any storm in the u. S. Ever, but then it unexpectedly took a slight left turn. So what ended up taking the direct brunt from that gigantic storm was not Corpus Christi, it was the king ranch which is a lot of things, right . Its historic, its huge, its interesting. Its the name of a fancy ford truck line to this day. But the king ranch is not built up and populated. It is open ranch land. So, yeah, hurricane allen was mega, even bigger than the monster storm irma that weve got on our hands right now. But its human impact did not match its strength as a weather phenomenon, not even close. And that is simply and blessedly because of the specifics of where it went, where it came ashore. With that history in mind, i have questions. How certain are we about where Hurricane Irma and its 185 mile an hour winds, how certain are we about where its going . We all remember in some previous big storms, even very recent storms, there have been interesting differences between like european models and american models for predicting the storm track. Some forecasts ended up being more certain than others, more accurate. Is that inter play between the different forecasts at play at all for this giant storm . Thats a pressing question for me tonight. How good are the models predicting the track of Hurricane Irma and how much consensus is there among those models. Thats my first question. Second question, is my first question stupid because of the size of the storm . The last category 5 storm was hurricane andrew 25 years ago. Youve probably seen these mockups that people have been doing. People have been physically comparing the size of hurricane andrew versus Hurricane Irma showing how much bigger than irma is. Is irma so big that its dumb for me to ask about the track. Is it so big that the subtleties about it tracking a few miles this way or a few dozen miles that way, are those not going to make a material difference for this giant a storm. Question one, how good are the predictions of where its going. Question two, is the sheer size of this storm so overwhelming that the subtle differences in the tracks dont matter. Two more questions. Third, i know there are people who dont understand this part but i do not. I dont get the relationship between sea level and wave height and storm surge and tide and what the National Hurricane center is now describing as water height above ground in its latest forecast discussions. I know theyre all about water and theyre all potential flooding and all about coastal risk. Maybe the distinction ought to be seen of something thats of interest to meteorologist but i sort of feel like were all reading meteorological material now and we sort of need to figure it out in terms of what the human impact is going to be here. Let me give you an example of what im talking about. Were all able to see the forecast from the National Hurricane center. Some of the numbers that theyre giving us i find a little bit hard to fathom. Let me quote to you from the National Hurricane center from their forecast discussion from earlier this evening about irma. This is just part of it. Quote, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving in from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of the high tide. One of the places that they list an amount for heights above groundwater, they give an example of southwest florida from cap tee va to cape sable. Heres that part of south florida on the map. According to the National Hurricane center tonight, they are warning that the water height above ground in that region of florida will be 8 to 12 feet of water. I want to understand exactly what that means. When they say that will be the water height above ground in that area, if the storm surge and the high tide combine in the worse case scenario, what exactly does that mean in terms of how much flooding theres going to be, how deep and persistent is that flooding going to be . If the tide and the storm surge dont align for that worst case scenario, should we still be scared by those numbers . 12 feet of water above ground . How much range are we talking about, how important are these temporal things like the tide and the exact time of the storm surge, how important are those in terms of giving us a range of how much to be worried about in terms of flooding, just in terms of that very practical question for how far inland and how high up people are going to need to go to escape these flood waters. So again, ive got four questions in total. First one is how certain are we about where its going. The second one is, is the storm that big that it shouldnt matter where its going. What should nonmeteorologist people look at . Heres my last question and this goes back to that scary chart where hurricane allen in 1980 is the only storm weve seen in this country with higher sust n sustained wind speeds. I have to say i find it personally unnerving to look at that chart. I look at those little dots on that chart representing storms and i think of all the other hurricanes that we have been through as a country and all of the damage that has been done by these incredibly powerful storms. If you just picture what weve been through and then to see that this one is right at the top in terms of its sustained wind speed, just as a mathematical matter i find that scary. But as a practical matter, i want to understand how much additional risk extreme wind speeds like that pose. In 2017 in the particular part of the country thats about to get the brunt of the storm, what do we know about how vulnerable they are to winds that fast. What is likely to be knocked down by winds that fast. What can stay standing in wind speed like that. We have seen what these 180plus mile an hour wind speeds have done in the caribbean already and what they are continuing to do. We can see in these caribbean islands what was left standing and what was not in places that have been hit so extremely hard in places like st. Maarten and barbuda which were going to talk about later in the show. In the United States and the mainland of the u. S. In florida we have different topography and different infrastructure over all. Have our building codes here in the u. S. Mainland anticipated wind speeds this fast . They know theyre in hurricane territory but 185 mile per hour territory . Do we know scientifically whats going to be left standing . So ive been watching all the footage, reading the briefings about this hurricane just as everybody in the country has been. These are the questions that i find myself unable to figure out on my own. This is the stuff thats been keeping me up as weve been getting closer to landfall. The good news is that all of these questions, i believe, are answerable. I think were going to be able to get answers to basically all of them tonight starting with nbc news meteorologist bill karins. Thank you very much for joining us. I dont know what you have planned the rest of the show but we may be here for a while. Good. Can i ask you to start on giving us the latest. There are important developments. Things are changing just in the last 15 minutes. This is the tight eye of irma. This is the coastline of cuba. These are known as the cuban keys here. Watch how close this is now coming to a landfall in cuba. The forecast is supposed to go parallel over these to the north. We are still going west. The further west this goes has huge implications for florida for two reasons. One, cuba could weaken the storm more than anticipated. The second thing would be if it continues to go further west, that means our forecast track would go further west. Because of the angle of orientation, that could mean huge implications for miami, ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and marco island and for tt. Myers. We are within 36 hours of this landfall. Theyre usually pretty accurate. The models were pretty much pointing at marathon, florida. Now look what happened. Now theyre pointing towards key west. Another 10 to 20 mile shift to the west has huge implications. Now instead of bringing it up through the everglades, theyre clustered pretty well here keeping it offshore with the eye coming possibly over the top of marco island and the naples area and maybe straight into ft. Myers. And also for areas like tampa, sarasota, the storm could be a little stronger if cuba doesnt weaken it, over water longer. That could mean more storm surge and stronger winds for areas like central florida. Thats one of the huge developments that we are literally now just getting in and dealing with. The Hurricane Centers update will be at 11 00 p. M. And well see if they shift it further to the west. Again, the further west it goes, the weaker the winds it could be for the east coast, including the big cities in south florida. We showed you cap tee va where the worst storm surge would be. Thats the 12feet range where we could see houses get destroyed. If that track goes further west, we could take these totals all the way up here. Tampa three days ago, miami was worse and now its inching closer and closer to the tampa area. Let me go to a couple other maps. This is going to show us when wind damage is. The two things that are going to cause the most damage is the water surge. By the time we get to saturday afternoon, this is when we start getting the Power Outages and damage in the keys. Watch what happens in marco island. Look at the keys, 127, 127. Even miami is starting to get up there. Key largo, 108. Sunday afternoon, this is the peak of the storm, this is when all of southern florida will lose power and well see the highest storm surge on the east coast. Miami, 102 Miles Per Hour wind. Theres that landfall, possibly a second landfall near ft. Myers, marco island. Winds could be in excess of 100 Miles Per Hour throughout this region. Even our friends in tampa and orlando, yes, it should weaken if its over land but 90 mile per hour winds is going to knock down trees and power throughout the region. The biggest things ive noticed in the last 15 minutes, a little more shift to the west, still huge implications for storm surge for ft. Myers, tampa, sarasota. Its not set in stone how bad its going to be there yet. They could go right through the eye. Three days ago we were saying up the east coast of florida. Now it could be right up the west coast. Is there anything you can tell about weve been tracking the storm through the caribbean for days now. Its been so big and so strong for all of these days. Is there anything about the way its behaved over the last few days that tells you which of the models are better at predicting where its going . We compared the american model to the european model. The european model comes out twice a day. The american model comes out four times a day. They have spent more money on their model and get more computing time because they only do it twice a day. It is more accurate than ours. With this storm it has been significantly more accurate with their track. The european model has been further west all along and thats the trend that Everything Else has gone towards. When you were saying you were showing that map of the various models and saying theres one of them that shows it heading towards the everglades which would be better in terms of human impact here, is there any what is your view right now in terms of the consensus level of the models . Is that an outlier . When we get within 24 to 36 hours of the storms, the average forecast is 24 miles. Typically its not that big of a deal but because florida is only 140 miles wide, its kind of a big deal and has significant impacts. Were going to have a lot of damage throughout the entire peninsula. Were trying to figure out whos going to have the worst storm surge. People want to know am i going to have water in my home. I just called my mom and told her they have a storm surge in ft. Myers where they live at six feet. Things like that that shift and change that is hard for people. One of the questions you had is should nonmeteorologists be looking at this stuff because it can drive you crazy. Its almost like an event for a meteorologist, a game thats being played out. You dont know the ending and we follow the trends and whats happening and continuously giving you updates, but for people making life decisions, it can be frustrating. And the physical size of the storm, just the circumference of it, the physical the way that it dwarves andrew, is that important in terms of how much attention we need to pay to those tracks . When you look at it, it looks like all of florida is going to be engulfed no matter which way it tracks. If you want to know is my house going to be destroyed, will i be able to come back to my house, will my house exist, that depends where the eye comes on shore. Am i going to have roof damage and power out for two weeks but i can go back to my house, thats the entire rest of the state of florida. In terms of the am i going to have water in my house question storm surge. Storm surge. Sea level im aware of but we hear sea levels have been rising over time and the high tide and damaging waves and the storm surge and water above ground, theres all these terms that i realize i can tell because im an idiot about these things that each of these things is designed to help somebody dumb like me understand them but because theres so many competing terms i dont know what to look at. The worst thing is most people dont even know what elevation they live at. If you dont know your elevation, it doesnt mean anything. This map back here that was behind me, this was the storm surge map. This map tells you how high the water is going to get compared to if the storm was not there. This does not take into account high tide or low tide. This just means that in southwest florida 8 to 12 feet of water is going to be there at the time when the storm is at its closest. When we talk about the storm tide, thats when we take this number, the 8 to 12 feet,