Way to jump donald trump and to move ahead in a couple of these Congressional District where is the margin is razor thin in some of these, that 475 could easily become 2725 for ted cruz. Thats the difference. For donald trump, were talking about getting to 1237. This is potentially huge for him if this holds. Not only that, it is possible cruz can win the statewide vote and lose the delegates. That is what steve just showed. It looks like hes going to potentially win he could still win a lot of delegates, but illinois is shaping up to be a very similar situation by the Congressional District number where he will run up the score on delegates. Donald trump is not having a good night, hes on his way to having a great night. And in fact, he may make up and then some, the amount of delegates he lost with kasich in ohio, he may make them all up both in missouri and illinois, with the way hes won. His vote is always spread out and cruz is the concentrated area, kasich is in concentrated areas. Trump does well across the board. Its stunning, because the smart people looking ahead to nights like this are saying winner take all is worth watching. But what you can make up for in a geographically disbursed good night winner take all is the most misleading phrase we use, because there are seven or eight states that are winner take all. Most of this winner take all is winner take all by Congressional Districts. Thats where this becomes a little more sophisticated. Thats where ill win the minority vote or the christian vote, that doesnt work well in a place where you have to win multiple Congressional Districts. Same reason huckabee didnt win. You know, i know cruz wants to make the argument that says if kasich wouldnt get out of the way, kasich can now make the same way against cruz. If kasich would get out to have way, lets see how i would do in a one on one. Calling cruz, which is devastating hes got to win in arizona. He needed North Carolina tonight, i think, to sort of prove that he wasnt missouri, a state santorum won. But pulling off an arizona, he needs to show that hes beyond a Christian Conservative group. Weve got a couple of weeks where it goes dead for a while, but looking ahead, can john kasich hope to be a more multidimensional candidate than cruz . There could. Where is he going tomorrow . Pennsylvania. Not going to arizona. Thats right. He may go to utah. Utah, i think theyre going to see if utah is doable. It should not be a good state for trump. His personality shouldnt play well in utah. Well see. You live in utah. What do you think . I think utah could be a state john kasich surprises in, for sure. Both trump and cruz would have difficulty in the state of utah. John kasich is going to try to bring this race to the west, to california. Hes going to try to bring it to the northeast and rack up some wins. At the end of the day, as we go through the delegate math and the proportional allegations by Congressional District, still a win is a win is a win. And were getting late in the process for there to be a night as big as this one without ted cruz walking away with a state in the victory column. Once again, another very big night for donald trump tonight. Before i toss it to cleveland, i want to talk to Chris Matthews. If i appointed you king, how would you change american elections, would you do away with primaries, would you give us a day off to vote, would we vote online . You deal with the byproducts all the time. What would you change about the process . I like the idea of regional, every month basically one tuesday a month for four straight months, north, south, east, west, you can break them up into four regions. Primaries only. And you do it that way and each tuesday, so that you make it so youre only traveling a certain amount and all that stuff. Voting online or do you go to a place . Sure, youve got to there has to be an expectation you can vote anywhere at any time. You got a mrs. Smithers too at your polling . Lets go kind of a cross to cleveland and Chris Matthews. Chris . One thing i do is get rid of citizens united, completely. I think it should be back to one person, one vote. And for years we lived under a rule that corporations couldnt give money to political candidates, but i think we have to go back to something. I think getting rid of caucuses wouldnt be bad. I spent a lot of time on the air on hardball talking against voter suppression, this new republican love of i. D. Cards. A partisan advantage. I think caucuses are very complicated and they only draw a small percentage of people to them. Theyre not democratic. So no voter i. D. Cards and no more caucuses, just vote. And let the people who have always voted to vote. We should encourage people to vote and we discouraging them with citizens united. They do see a tremendous number of ads, even trump was right about that. All you see are ads, and theyre all negative. They dont help people vote. They just suppress the vote. I would get rid of everything that suppresses the vote. I would get rid of the caucuses and get rid of the voter i. D. Rules. I think that would help democracy. With the shape of or roads and airports, do you think were going to fix voting . Lets take a look at illinois. The democratic side of the illinois race, weve been talking a lot about the republicans tonight. But this one, coming right up on 80 of the vote in. Too close to call separated by the difference of the population of a moderately sized american town. And lets go to chicago. Chris hayes has been at a Bernie Sanders watch party in chicago this evening. Chris, whats it like at the ground level . The candidate, of course, is in arizona. Yeah, look, i think there was a lot of hope about illinois and missouri among the sanders folks. There was particularly hope here in illinois, because there has been such a strong grassroots sort of cultivated, particularly around cook county, theres a states attorneys race here, for the states attorney who didnt prosecute the Laquan Mcdonald police officer. She was kicked out tonight. A lot of action on the left. Yet still sanders lost cook county by about eight points to Hillary Clinton. I think that indicates hes probably going to fall short. Now, in the sort of apportionment scheme we have on the democratic side, that find in the sense that it hits proportional and he wont suffer some winner take all defeat. The problem is coming out of tonight, looking at a path forward where he has to now winsome where between 60 , 70 of the remaining delegates. The further you go in the process without winner take all, with proportional delegates, the harder it gets. So nights tonight in a place like illinois where they could have had a michigan style upset, the more nights you go with that, without getting those kinds of results, the harder it is to make up that lead Going Forward. You can feel a little bit of the muted disappointment right here. What still remains a well motivated campaign, but its at the ground level where the rubber meet tls road. Chris hayes, thanks. Lets go to casey hunt who has been traveling with the Sanders Campaign. Since Bernie Sanders is going to be in phoenix, arizona, he did not give a speech about tonights results. He just did do his standard rally speech. Casey . Reporter thats right. I was watching some of these late returns come in backstage with jeff weaver and the sort of brain trusts on the Bernie Sanders campaign. They insist they are going to keep Going Forward with the same strategy, but they acknowledge it is a much tougher road. The mood overall is much more grim than it was a couple of hours ago. Theyre now looking carefully at those returns in illinois. When i was standing back with them, they were hoping to keep the margin in that allimportant cook county below ten points and they were looking at missouri. But thats not where they wanted to be tonight. They wanted to be talking about ohio and being closer than they expected in North Carolina. Thats not what they were talking about. That staid, theyre going to soldier on and theyre talking about how theyre going to try to squeeze delegates out of this process. Think about how rand paul squeezed delegates out of caucus states in 2012. Sanders is in arizona on thursday for an afternoon rally and idaho on friday. But they know theyre going to have to win some of these big states, wisconsin, pennsylvania, et cetera. And it doesnt look like thats in the card it is you read into these results tonight. When you say theyre looking to squeeze some delegates out of the process, does that mean they have a dedicated, highly organized effort where theyll try to talk their way into delegates that they didnt win on Election Night . Reporter theyre trying to organize Something Like that. One thing about the Sanders Campaign is even they in some cases were surprised by the fervor. So theres always been the scramble to catch up on the organizational front. That said, youll remember these conventions are dominated by the most committed, most aggressive set of supporters. I think its clear that the sanders supporters on this democratic front, even as Hillary Clinton has seemingly continued this march to the nomination. So they certainly have plenty of people available to focus on this. Its not clear how successful theyll be. Youre talkingable dozens of delegates, not hundreds of delegates and its looking like the number that they need is in those hundreds. Casey hunt for us in phoenix, arizona. Thank you. We are going to take a break in our coverage. When we come back, well update you on all the outstanding races tonight. And the delegate totals so far. Man 1 i came as fast as i could. Whats up . Man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Lets take a look at whats still outstanding on whats been an outstanding night for more than one candidate tonight. Gop primary in the state of missouri, too close to call. Separated by just north of 3,000 votes, remains 99 in. Democratic primary in missouri, too close to call, larger difference between the two candidates with less percentage of the vote in. Democratic primary in the state of illinois, 82 in. Too close to call. Clinton and sanders separated by about 45,000 votes. So weve obviously got two outstanding all states are outstanding. Thank you very much. We have a trophy for participating. Everybody gets a ribbon. Illinois and missouri not called on the democratic side. And on the republican side, no call in missouri. But in terms of whats going on in the democratic race right now, its not just states, its the overall march toward the nomination, for which were going to bring in steve kornacki. Weve put sort of a scorecard together to give you a sense of how the night is shaping up in terms of delegates on the republican side. This is where we started, when we came in tonight. This was the score. We know donald trump took 99 delegates in florida. We also know that john kasich took 66 in ohio. Were figuring out what is going to happen in the rest of the states. To give you some ballpark figures here, it looks like donald trump in North Carolina is going to take say roughly im sorry here. Hes going to take roughly 28 delegates in North Carolina. Zero in ohio. Again, this is rough here, but about 43 delegates in illinois. Again, we just showed you this huge range on missouri. Right now, this is subject to change, right now we had it at 47. So if you start adding these things together, doing the quick math here, this is going to take you to 499, 598. 641. 688 from this would be the total that donald trump walks away tonight. Marco rubio may add a couple to his column from North Carolina. He might be around 170 at the end of the night. John kasich might be sitting here around 129 at the end of the night. Ted cruz might be sitting around 420 at the end of the night. This is a rough gauge of where the delegate thing is heading right now. Chuck todd, when you look at that, what does it tell you . The cruz people themselves will tell you their goal was to be under 250 tonight in the margin between them and trump and they were hoping a really good night would have had them down to 200. Instead its over 250. You know, missouri and illinois, the dominance there, he basically is about 40 delegates short of where we thought he would be had he won both florida and ohio. So the point is, trump almost made up for the ohio loss tonight by the way he won illinois and missouri. Allow me to introduce and introduce our guests. Ben ginsburg joins us. Funny, we were just talking about you. And nicolle wallace. I have a ginsburg question. This is not a big forecasting one, but just a question that everybody i know is asking me via text message is what happens to marco rubios delegates . Marco rubios delegates, it depends on the law of the individual states. Most of them will be unbound. So that is a big story of this evening. That another 159 delegates go into the unbound pool on the first ballot for a frontrunner shy of a majority to pick from. Thats true whether or not marco rubio endorses anybody. An endorsement is something that applies to him. It does not bind his delegates, it is a suggestion not a command. This is basically the republican version of super delegates. How many unbound with rubio . 166 before this, so 159 now, so thats 320, which is a lot of margin. Now, does that mean, forgive my mathematic ignorance, but does that make it harder for anybody to get over the threshold they get to get to without it going to a second ballot . No, because these are unbound delegates. The bound delegates that are won, this gives a frontrunner a bigger pool from which to fish. So from june 8 to july 15, thats before the start of the republican convention, the unbound delegates are going to have a lot of free trips . I think so. There are a lot of ambassadorships out there. It is funny and creepy in sort of equal measure. But to be specific about it, would it be illegal or would it be disallowed for a delegate to accept literally a suitcase full of cash in exchange for their allegiance at the convention . That is a great legal question. Im not sure there is an answer. You would not want to be defending who just took a suitcase of cash for a vote at a convention. What is do you have in your legal toolbox to lure me if im an unbound delegateso sodelegat . Beyond my smile, youll describe to people why you will create a better america, and we have a role that we need you to play to help us make the country great again. Who picks these unbound delegates . Who is going to be you worked for mitt romney. You made sure people that were delegates for mitt romney in state x were mitt romney people. So whos going to be in charge of deciding who is picking these unbound delegates . Its part of the way the Republican Party does this. This is up to the rules of every state about how the delegates are chosen. Now, in broad stroke, the candidates themselves get to pick about 20 of the delegates. 80 of the delegates, 75 to 80 of the delegates are chosen by a unique state process. Its a convention in some states. Its the state executive Committee Meeting and deciding, where in the past the main goal was to get your brotherinlaw a delegates position. Now all of a sudden the Trump Campaign will make sure they are trump loyalists that are the delegates. The Cruz Campaign will have an operation to make sure theyre cruz loyalists. So the stage will shift to these very unique county and state functions where people go through the raw politics in kind of a practice rounds. When we say choose the delegates, just to be super specifics, were talked about named actual people. Yes, we are. And then what happens to them in terms of people trying to persuade them could include suitcases full of cash . Where were talking about who the nominee will be of a major party for president of the United States, the stakes can keep going up and up and up and up. I dont mean to be weird, but one of these potential nominees is somebody i dont think has great qualms about using techniques and tactics and means of persuasion that would typically be seen outside of the political process. But the history of the political process is a lot of horse trading in this. This might involve actual horses. Not since 1976 has it involved actual horses. The entire reason were having this conversation is so some day, someone can walk up to the delegates who have pledged to this guy, who has been elected as part of a movement this year. The first genuine movement weve seen in a long time and say, your votes dont count. Well, theyll all count, but delegates will have their own consciousness to be appealed to by the different candidates. So the way this will work in practice is that the delegates are bound to a president ial candidate on the first valid vote. But what happens in the rules to go up to the convention, the majority of delegates and how many states, whether its a majority that actually is needed to win the nomination and countless other rules as well as credential challenges will all be decided by delegates picked in these very local, state conventions. Whats going to matter is what Hillary Clintons lead over donald trump in the general matchups in the 12 to 15 important swing states on july 15th. Thats going to matter. Shes sitting on eight to tenpoint leads in several states. Then all of a sudden theres going to be panic time. But if hes closed the gap and its a coin flip, then youre going to see people i mean, thats what is going to matter. What are the general election numbers looking like by july 15th . Unless