And as proRussian Troops detain and release American News crews on the border this morning, germanys chancellor angela merck la delivers as new message this morning. And the jobs number shows the economy may finally be bouncing back after a brutal winter. Its the most jobs added in two years. Thein employment rate plunged to 6. 3 , the lowest its been since 2008. February and march job totals were revised up by a combined 36,000. The average now for the last three months, 238,000 jobs, about 60,000 more than the average for the three months before. Big winners by sectors include business services, retail, food services, construction and health care. Bottom line, this number was much bigger than anticipated but its not all good news. Part of the reason that the Unemployment Rate is down is of course that the total labor force dropped again, this time by more than 800,000 in april after increasing by half a million. That total jobs number added a big deal. If you think about it over the last five years, april, may, june, every time it looked like the economy was bouncing back, they would just sort of suck the life out of the economic recovery with mediocre jobs reports. This one indicates the start of the Second Quarter may be a different story in 2014. Well see if it keeps up. Could be the sleeper issue of 2014 in the campaign. Turning now to the campaign, the issue that will decide whether the democrats keep of the senate. Yes, its a cliche but cliches become cliches because theyre true. Its the democrats biggest challenge this year. At first it was part of his stump speech to members of his own party behind doors, the fear that democrats may not show up to the polls but republicans will. Their models are constructed based on the idea that americans will sit out this election. Because they look at the past and in the past, its true. A lot of democrats dont vote during mid terms. We just dont. Young people. Africanamericans, latinos. We just often times dont vote. As the president put it to a group of democratic governors earlier this year, quote, we know how to win National Elections but all too often its during these mid terms where we end up getting ourselves into trouble because i guess we dont think its sexy enough. Well, the president isnt wrong. In our poll this month, we looked more closely at the group of voters who told us they vote in 2012 but did not cast a vote in 2010 when democrats lost the most congressional seats since 1938. So who are these dropoff voters . 51 of these folks who we polled who voted in 2012 but not in 2010 are selfdescribed democrats, more than twice the number of republicans, 17 of them are political independents. The dropoff voters are overwhelmingly female, 61 are women, 39 are men. Younger voters were much more likely to sit out the midterm than older voters, 35 were in the age group 18 to 34, 28 were 3549. They are mostly not college educated. 67 had less than a College Education and they were disproportionately hispanic and africanamerican. In case its not already clear that were describing a democratic consistency group here, i think can you see it. 53 of the dropoff voters say they approve of the president , 9 points higher than his overall job rating in our poll. And 55 prefer democrats to be in charge in congress. By nearly 20 points, 43 to 25, dropoff voters tell us they have a positive view of the Democratic Party and view the Republican Party negatively. As sasha puts it, today the Republican Coalition is stacked with the electorates most habitual pollgoers or reflection voters. The director of the American Communities project points out this week in the wall street journal how dropoff voters, younger vo eer voters, could plg role in states with Competitive Senate races. Colorado, iowa, north carolina, in boulder conte, home of the university of colorado, turnout dropped by 27 , and in durham county, dukes town, turnout dropped by a whopping 40 . The numbers doesnt lie. Joining suus is author of the great geeky book and amy walter, editor for the Cook National report. Sasha, your book came out. I assume that profile of voter that we came up with did not surprise you considering the deep dive youve done on this as well. Thats right. We did our poll slightly differently in that we went out and actually looked at voter files. We werent asking people whether or not they voted in 10 or 12 but looking at the actual record if people had turned out. We found something very similar, which is you basically have two lek democrats in the United States, people who vote every two years and people who vote every four years. The reflection voter is overwhelmingly republican. What we usually think of as the midterm dynamics now have a very different sort of partisan edge. I guess then the question is what is the campaign about, amy . Is it about persuasion . Or is it only about turnout . Sasha actually had a counter argument in his piece. I want to go to you and chris first. What do campaigns think . It seems its only about getting voters out. We know where the Senate Battlegrounds are. Theyre in places where the Obama Coalition is not going to be what they need to win. The Obama Coalition is not going to get you alaska, louisiana. Its going to get you 45 maybe in arkansas. If they do a Registration Campaign with africanamericans and things like that. They have the colorado north carolina, which is the turn out our base issue and then they have the get out actually have our candidates be able to persuade those especially white voters who voted for mitt rom y romney. What is motivating democrats to turn out in a year looking at the fact that people who are the most pessimistic about the economy are part of that same base, minorities, women, younger people. How are you going to get them to turn out when they feel like things are so bad . Whats the deliverable . Republicans are telling their base why they want to turn out. Got to stop obama, you got to stop the health care law, you got to stop these things. They have a way to rally their base. What is the great rally cry for the Democratic Party . I would add, by the way, what youve seen this week with benghazi is another rallying cry. This is the save Lindsay Graham senate seat. It gives him something to sell conservatives you may hate me on all this stuff but im with you on benghazi. Before this morning i would have said nothing. It is possible that given we are now in may before an election year, if an improving the economy really looks thats potentially the one. I city think its very difficult. Sashas gone through, amys gone through it, ive gone through it. If you look at history, particularly in the second term of the president s midterm, it usually does not work for that president. Sasha, were going to go back to crunching numbers here. You had an interesting way that you ranked how democrats should concentrate their resources. That means youre dominated by small states a bit because you get the best bang for your buck. You make the case you think as far as survival is concerned, you think West Virginia is the best hope at saving the senate seat. Explain this. We looked at it as how are you going to get to the number you need to win. Thats how many democratic votes can you count on, whats your floor and can you mobilize your way to 50 . And when we did that and then looked at the amount of resources you need to actually mobilize that number of votes, we found that West Virginia was the friendliest state to democrats, georgia was the most expensive. I mean, all of this is sort of easier said than done. In West Virginia we determined it took 123,000 hours of volunteers knocking on doors. If youre a democrat being good luck finding 123,000 volunteer hours in West Virginia in 2014. On the other hand, we looked at georgia and it would cost over 30 million if you did it just through paid workers and direct mail and phone. So the idea is that polls tend to measure the electorate as it is, people who tell you theyre already likely to vote. If your goal strategically is changing the electorate, you have to figure out what its going to take to bring new people into the process. I get why West Virginia is financially number one, but you look at the top three straits, West Virginia, alaska, montana, theyre federally not very friendly to this new Democratic Party at all. But then you look at the bottom and to georgia, while it sounds like its not cost effective, that would be what sashas argument would be. But the future in georgia, the investment beyond 2014, you see where the investment in West Virginia, alaska, montana, theres probably not a future there. Thats right. If youre going into georgia and youre saying we know where the demographic trend lines are going, especially with latino voters, africanamerican voters and younger voters, we put that in play at 2016 at the president ial level, that changes the Electoral College map. I keep going back to because the other point sasha is making is this isnt all about just a turnout and that you need to get competitive. He had a twoprong theory on this, right. I agree that the more competitive a race seems, the more persuadable the last 10 of the voters are because they feel empowered almost. Its a psychological thing and voting is somewhat impacted by psychology. Comparing election cycles it a little bit dangerous. I would say your theory is true in a state like north dakota with Heidi Heitkamp in 2012. What they did smartly was they kept her sort of competitive. She looked credible. She ran very good ads. It was close enough that it became that you werent throwing your vote she was a credible, serious person in a state where probably you said would you rather have a republican or democrat, the republican wins 99. 9 of the time. But cease in tshes in the argu theyve defined her in a way thats palatable. Weve sat in focus groups before. The way people make their minds up about elections, its not that they go down a rank order on issues and check this one off and check that one off. Its feel many times. You have to be in the conversation so feel matters. Sasha, make your case. Theres a very small slice in the federal electorate thats actually persuadable. What weve seen from a whole bunch of research is the effects of Television Ads of persuading people doesnt hold for that long. The bets the democrats are making in the senate race is to spend money building the infrastructure to mobilize them and save their resources for late to persuade people who are still persuadable. The executive director of dscc said to me the problem in that is if we are too far gone by september or october to be able to make up the gap through persuasion. All of our figures are based on basically polling assumptions now and if obamas numbers or economic numbers go down over the next seven months, its going to be very difficult for them to persuade their way into contention. Ive talked to some conservatives who are behind the strategy with the Koch Brothers and what theyre doing. I said im not really convinced these early ads win and they said neither are we but we have the money. Theyre not sure either but they have it. You know what this feels like . In 2006 i was making the argument that for the First Time Since 1994, that way of the election, that there was more money in the system and maybe that was going to help protect republican incumbents from a wave in a way you couldnt do in 94. Did it matter. Now were saying all the underlying dynamics are terrible for democrats because maybe now they have the technology and they have the ability to find the voters in a way theyve never been able do before. Can they prevent a wipeout certainly by money and infrastructure or do we go back to, look, at the end of the day if they dont want the dog food, theyre not going to eat the dog food. You can spend all the money you want. Democrats want i remember karl rove came out after 2006. Hey, a switch of just 25,000 votes would have switched three senate seats. But if i could and if your aunt had this, shed be your uncle. Democrats might then just lose a bunch of races by a smaller margin but it would still be a loss. Thats right. Can they maximize the electorate enough and got close enough that the persuadables matter. Sar sasha is right, they can do the best campaign in arkansas and they can still lose. Sasha issenberg, always fun to geek with you. And i have to be really fast here like a lawyer. More americans are getting inked but fewer are getting ink on their hands. Well explain that development and some other fascinating changes in the countrys cultural habits. But first a look ahead at todays planner. Its a very busy day. President obama and Angela Merckel and president obama will hold a press conference. I will see you later for that. woman that was fun. man yeah. man let me help you out with the. woman . Oh no, i got it. man you sure . woman just pop the trunk. man vo i may not know where the road will lead, but. Im sure my subaru will get me there. announcer love. Its what makes a subaru, a subaru. Marge you know, theres a more enjoyable way to get your fiber. Try phillips fiber good gummies. 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Before starting humira, your doctor should test you for tb. Ask your doctor if you live in or have been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. Tell your doctor if you have had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough, or sores. You should not start humira if you have any kind of infection. Make the most of every moment. Ask your dermatologist about humira, today. Clearer skin is possible. Could mean less waiting for things like security backups and file downloads youd take that test, right . Well, what are you waiting for . You could literally be done with the test by now. Now you could have done it twice. This is awkward. Check your speed. See how fast your internet can be. Switch now and add voice and tv for 34. 90. Comcast business built for business. This may be one of my alltime favorite data bank numbers. 40 , according to our new nbc wall street journal poll, 40 have someone in their house with a tattoo. America has changed big time on that. In 1999, it was 21 . Take a look at these numbers. 15 years ago, 79 said they read the newspaper in print at least three times a week. Now thats 47 . And serving your military and having family dinner at least five times a work. I love how high that poll was. And 69 shop online. A majority of people say they now pay their bills online and our poll found that 32 of americans play video games on a console, not just on your ipad or, you know, xbox, play station, all that business. All right, coming up, whos really to blame as the prospect of middle east peace talks fail again . We have one of the first u. S. Tv interviews with israels new ambassador to the United States next. But first, todays tdr trivia question brought to you by our own Steve Kornacki, who will be joining us in a few minutes. In what year was a woman last elected to congress from new jersey . I think i know who that is. 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