california to new jersey. how does a poorly-funded congressional candidate break out? one of the more memorable videos. all the way to congress. good morning from washington. it's monday, june 4th. i'm chuck todd. this is the "the daily rundown." wisconsin voters decide whether to remove governor scott walker from office and replace him with tom barrett. the recall capped a bitter fight that waged for over a year and the stakes could not be higher for organized labor. for scott walker's political future and for fellow republican governors made in his image and for each campaign's chance of putting the badger state in their column in november. more than $63 million have poured into wisconsin and political leaders have put the state in the spotlight issuing wisconsin's own congressman paul ryan and former president bill clinton. >> this is an election that will send shock waves throughout america. what state assembly person, what governor will ever take on these kinds of reforms if this is what happens to you? the whole country is watching. >> all those people that poured all this money into wisconsin, if you don't show up and vote will say, see, we got them now. we're finally going to break every government in america. we're going to stop worrying about the middle class. we don't give a rip whether poor people work their way into it. we got it all. >> at a dairy breakfast yesterday, both candidates served eggs and made their closing arguments. walker argues it's a choice, not a referendum and is trying to remind voters why they rejected barrett the first time in 2010. >> that's really what's at stake. whether or not we're going to move the state forward or backwards. we have laid out a clear plan. we kept our promises. we move the state forward. billion dollars worth of savings. my opponent believes more government is the answer. >> there's no more polarized electorate. >> you have a situation where neighbors don't want to talk to neighbors and relatives don't want to talk to relatives because of this political civil war that scott walker has created. and i will end that civil war. >> it's clear that the race is tight. walker is stuck in recent polling somewhere between 50% and 52%. can democratic turn out surge? it's a little more of a republican electorate than in 2008. president obama has been absent in wisconsin, a state he carried by 14 points in 2008 winning 59 of 72 counties. republicans have made the most of the fact he stopped in wisconsin's neighboring states of minnesota and illinois on friday, but skipped wisconsin. this was how obama's campaign manager explained his absence to me last week. >> if you think that the secret weapon here is sending president obama, then i'm pleased that you believe that. but i think that actually having tweem organizing and volunteering and turning out the vote and doing everything they can that actually affect an election is more powerful. >> does the result tell us something about november? >> no, i don't think so. >> we sads frsaid from the outs this is a 50/50 race. friday's jobs report changed that perception. what can the president do to change the narrative that he hasn't already done? the president acknowledged out of options at a fundraiser in minneapolis. "if we're successful, when we're successful in this election, the fever may break. because after the election the goal of beating president obama won't work because i'm not running again e." a year ago after the debt ceiling debacle, they decided to run against congress. that line of attack lost steam. now that bad economic news is back and the urgency may be too. this was obama's senior strategist david axelrod on cbs yesterday. >> instead of high fiving each other on days when there's bad news, they should work on some of the answers. >> the current signs out there, friday's jobs data, slowing chinese economy, point to the start of a tough summer for the president. but it's hard to make that line of attack sound anything bu political. one bright spot for the obama campaign is the polkt that republicans would go too far and sound like they are cheer leading bad news. some republican governors tryie to walk a fine line on sunday. listen to john kasich whose state has benefitted from the auto bailout. >> what turned ohio around is the auto bailout. >> we were thrilled with the auto industry. but give me the facts. 73,000 jobs created in the last -- since '11. 1800 in the auto industry. >> didn't talk about all the jobs that would have went away. mcdonald also tried to walk a fine line. >> nearly a trillion dollars in stimulus. that was one-time spending. did it help in the short-term with health care and education spending? sure. does it help us in the long-term to really cut the unemployment rate? i'd say no. >> just a tiny bit of credit to the president. >> sure. i think there's national policies that have had some impact. >> when a stimulus -- it's short-term. finally this morning, the obama campaign is out with a new 60-second ad called "heard it before." after saying they hadn't been going negative on tv ads, now they are. they are doubling down on mitt romney's governorship in massachusetts. the ad will be running in many states. here's a look apt the ad. at the ad. >> it started like this. >> i speak the language of business. i know how jobs are created. >> but it ended like this. one of the worst economic records in the country. when mitt romney was governor, massachusetts lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs, a rate twice the national average and fell to 47th in job creation. when mitt romney talks about what he'd do as president -- >> i know what it takes to create jobs. >> remember, we have heard it all before. >> yesterday the romney campaign unveiled a new talking point to defend against that line of 47th in job creation. here's their new line of defense. >> when mitt romney arrived, massachusetts was an economic basket house. if you throw d.c. in the mix, we were 51 out of 51. >> when he took office, it was 50 in job creation. actually 52 if you count the district of columbia. >> when he ended his term in office, it was number 30. >> as you can see, here's what the romney campaign is doing. they are slicing the the jobs data in a different way. massachusetts standing improved during his time, but the state's ranking during romney's four-year term was significantly lower than under his predeces r predecessor. given the 47th in job creation was a staple for the primary campaign, why did it take until now for the romney campaign to come up with a response? will they regret taking so long doing that if they believe they have a new way of slicing the jobs data? wisconsin's seventh election in just over a year. and this is one of the most expensive in state history. it comes to a close tomorrow when voters decide whether scott walkers bill should cost him his job. john nickels is in madson, wisconsin. he joins me now. john, i want to start with this issue about where the race stands right now. and everybody i have talked to indicates that whatever momentum walker had a week ago, it stalled. but he's still ahead. which means he could win by a very nar crow margin. and if he does, how much finger pointing is there going to be inside the democratic party? >> you have a lot of pieces to that question. let's go to the kind of reality of the race at this point. i have been in a dozen communities around the state in the last four or five days. seen republican and democratic rallies and gone in and looked at their phone banks and operations. i can tell you that i have never seen this level of intensity on both sides of a race in all of my time in this state. this is bigger than obama in 2008. it's bigger than clinton and bush the dad. bigger than the close, close ra races between bush and gore and kerry and bush in 2000 and 2004. it's a wild thing that's going on. now you get huge spin from both campaigns. but this is what we know from overnight. both campaigns have been in contact with recount lawyers. and i can tell you the democrats quietly confirmed that they have talked to mark alias, who did the franken recount in minnesota and the dayton recount. so both campaigns are seriously looking at a very, very close result. >> what's the lesson here? i feel like the voters of wisconsin haven't basically given direction to either party because everything every one of these fights has been by a handful of votes. whether it was the supreme court proxy war that took place. they recalled just enough state senators to keep the republicans in charge. everything -- the voters have not delivered a mandate either way. and it doesn't look like you're going to see a mandate delivered tomorrow. help me out with the fall out from this. >>. it's a deeply, deeply divided state. and remember, chuck, that in 2000 al gore won wisconsin by 5,000 votes. in 2004 john kerry won wisconsin by about 12,000 votes. this is a deeply divided state. it has been for a long time. they have gone to their camps. the battle is an intense one. but we do have the possibility tomorrow, and this is one to keep in mind, that the core message if tom barrett wins is that at least some element of the tea party moment has begun to fade. here's what i would suggest to you. if barrett does full this off, he will have reversed a 2010 result. he will have reversed it by bringing out a lot of that democratic base that didn't vote in 2010. i think for national democrats, that's a very, very good message that possibility of bringing that base out. >> but what's the reverse? >> well the reverse is hugely significant. if scott walker wins, and i think paul ryan talked about this, he suggested this possibility that, you know, republican governors become more energized. but i do think it's something important to recognize. if scott walker wins, it will be a win for dramatic infusions of money. e even now the numbers suggest that scott walker is outspending tom barrett on television by a ratio of 8 to 1. there's a lesson here in regards to campaign money and its ability to counter an energized base. so one way or the other, you're going to get some very significant messages for national politics. but they won't be the simplistic obama is going to do better or romney is going to do better. >> amazing messages that could be sent by a percentage point. unbelievable. john nickels of "the madison capital times." new laws could make it tougher for people to register to vote in the presidential elections. critics call it -- florida has become ground zero for the fight. the impact on who wins the white house. plus what do you get when you mix this? one of the most fascinating videos we have seen in a long time. we couldn't help ourselves. we have to dig more into it. first a look ahead at the president's schedule. kind of a quiet day here. then it's a bunch of new york city events. the big one with president bill clinton. you're watching "the daily rundown," only on msnbc. 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[ male announcer ] now citi thankyou visa card holders can combine the thankyou points they've earned and get even greater rewards. ♪ but when i was diagnosed with prostate cancer... i needed a coach. our doctor was great, but with so many tough decisions i felt lost. squa republican governor rick scott says florida's voter purge is aimed at clearing registration rules of noncitizens. critics say it's nothing more than an effort to disenfranchise poor voters who tend to tilt to the democrats. a small number of ballots could tip a presidential race. a federal judge seemed to agree and issued an injunction for parts of the measure. michael walletman joins me and brian darling, who is a senior fellow at the heritage foundation. thank you both. michael, i want to start with you. why did you file? your group has been part of fighting these laws in a lot of states, particularly in florida. why are you cheering the decision by the federal government to step in here? >> well, chunk, first degree has moved forward on a number of different fronts to make it harder for people to vote. so this is about two things in the past week. on thursday, a federal judge blocked the law that governor scott signed that made it very, very hard for groups like the league of women's voters to do voter registration, that shut down voter registration drives. it shut down the operations. the judge said this was clearly something that had no legitimate purpose other than it seemed to make it harder for constitutionally-protected activity to occur. that's happening at the same time the justice department said, wait a minute, this voter purge looks like it's going to heavily impact minority voters. 58% of the names on the list were hispanic. and you don't want people being on the rolls who aren't eligibility to vote, but to do it without secret or input saying it's not working well, that's a recipe for florida 2000-style disaster. >> brian, you have been fighting on the other side of this. it feels like a lot of the laws are solutions in search of a problem. they are done hastily so whether you believe that there's a reason to do it, that you have some evidence, that your side isn't searching for the evidence, they are putting the laws in place and saying there's voter fraud. >> the states are reasonable to try to get rid of voter fraud. there have been examples of it. if you look at florida, "the miami herold" said voters shouldn't have been voting. so there's 180,000 people they want to investigate to make sure they are registered. >> so why not just investigate that instead of changing the law? particularly, when you are doing this in the south, it brings back some bad memories. >> sure, but this law what the court did in this court said 48 hours that's too short a period of time to get a signature and get it into the state. >> so you believe the judge is right? >> no they said voter registration drives do not implicate first amendment activity. they are saying the government doesn't have any role in voter registration drives. people can disagree and probably 48 hours should be extended more, but i don't know if it's constitutional issues. >> michael, let me ask you about the voter i.d. fraud. at some point, and i understand we still have roughly anywhere from 5% to 10% of older populations without i.d. without a government-issued i.d. that's going to change in the next five to ten years. are you going to be more open to voter i.d. laws? >> i'm very open to voter i.d. laws if they are about kinds of i.d. that people actually have. there are states where the kinds of i.d. are broad or where there's a fail-safe if you don't have it. the problem is we estimate as many as 10% don't have it. a lot of it is seniors and more poor people. that really goes to the tragedy of the whole thing. >> but they could still vote provisionally. >> but that means that a senior who is old and doesn't have their driver's license has to go back a second time, stand in line and prove who they are. that's not democracy and that really isn't how we ought to be running elections. we could make this so easy. everyone who is eligible's name on an electronic voter list. that would add tens of millions of people to the roles and guarantee whatever problems there are won't recur. >> that sounds fairly reasonable. >> maybe. but as you know, these voter laws are constitutional. voter i.d. laws were held to be constitutional in 2008 in the indiana case. it was a 6 to 3 decision. you can't argue it was on partisan lines. so what the state of florida is doing is perfectly reasonable and constitutional. >> you're perhaps a little jumbled in what you're saying. we're not talking in this instance about voter i.d. laws. unfortunately, florida and other states are moving forward with every different kind of law they could come up with it seems to make it harder for people to vote. and so again, the league of women voters is a very respected organization doing good work for years. they may be in a position now to move forward. the tragedy is right now 4 out of 10 eligible voters in the state of florida, eligible voters, are not registered to vote. >> let me ask you this. it does seem that you're seeing the two parties break and the republicans want more rules in place to make it harder to register to vote. why? >> they want to make sure to get rid of voter fraud. >> but where is the fraud? we're talking about one or two people here. we're not even 100% sure. >> we just had a michigan congressman resign and not run for reelection because his campaign gathered signatures that were invalid. >> but that's petition signatures. that's a different law here. >> but it's very hard to catch voter fraud. james o'keefe didn't have any i.d. >> did he vote? >> no. >> but you're proving the point here. the fraud didn't take place because they prevented it. >> but it's hard to catch the fraud. that's why you have to do it before election day. >> chuck, listen to the absurdity of that. it's so hard to find it must be everywhere so let's make laws that make it harder for millions to vote. >> why is it so bad to do it now? >> what's so wrong with the state of florida taking corrective action before the election? there's nothing wrong with that and it's constitutional. >> the problem is when you take actions that have a risk, more than a risk of kicking out from the rolls eligible voters, veterans, people who served the country. we ought to be able to make the elections secure without disenfranchising millions of americans. >> this is a debate that's going to take place in 50 states, i think, and for a few years to come. thank you both. thank you for the civil discussion. i appreciate that. wall street took its deepest dive on friday. what's in store today? could be rough. the market rundown is next. plus elizabeth warren cruised to her first victory. and trumping trump? democrats roll out their own invitation to dine with a celebrity. in the the past 48 years, wisconsin has voted for two republican presidents. who were they? tweet me the answer. the answer and more coming up on "the daily rundown." this country was built by working people. the economy needs manufacturing. machines, tools, people making stuff. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy. we need to get the wheels turning. i'm proud of that. making real things... for real. ...that make a real difference. ♪ when i had my heart event. and i've been on a bayer aspirin regimen ever since. 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