the big lead, but second place is the big guest. in a state that prides itself on surprising pundits and ignoring conventional wisdom, it's actually still a ball game for second. during the final debate before the vote. rivals landed more than a few solid punches. john huntsman had his greatest showing yet. and while the political world has its eyes on new hampshire, a lot of people in washington buzzing about, you can call an eyebrow raising new book about the obama's life in the white house. it's monday january 9, 2012, this is a special edition of the daily run down. coming to you from manchester, new hampshire. in search of the new hampshire surprise, could the state that made bill clinton the come back kid, that rode in henry cabot lodge one time. pat buchanan, a national reputation. each of the candidates now vying for second place in the granite state is hoping to cut into mitt romney's double-digit lead. romney has 41% of voters, ron paul's support is eroding and huntsman moved into third place. with time running out for romney's rivals to stop him from turning from front runner to de facto nominee, they piled on him in the msnbc face book debate. >> if his record was so good why didn't you run for reelect none if it was that great, why did you bail out? we want someone who's going to stand up and fight for the conservative principles and not bail out and not run to the left of ted kennedy. >> i didn't go there to begin a political career. >> run again? that would be about me. i was trying to help get the state in as best shape as i possibly could. you've got a surprised look on your face. hold on, it's still my time. >> are you going to tell people you're not going to run for re-election for president if you win? >> rick, it's still my time. >> whenever he's playing time keeper, it's not good for governor romney. >> newt gingrich calls romney out for not being a politician. >> i know it doesn't mean anything to you that you're the front-runner, but can we drop a little bit of the pious bologna? just level with the american people, you've been running at least since the 1990s. >> and after 14 sub par debates, romney did have a good day. >> the person who should represent our party running against president obama is not someone who called him a remarkable leader and went to be his ambassador in china. >> this nation is divided, david, because of attitudes like that. >> the exchange started when jon huntsman started out saying i want to respond to something last night, referring to the saturday night debate. never good when it takes you ten hours to come up with a response. but on this one he did show up and seemed to have some ready barbs back. gingrich teased, attacking romney for his work. the "new york times" reports this morning that winning our future will spend $3.4 million in south carolina on ads created from this movie focusing on the romney-bain connection. finally two things to watch for in this battle for second place. will conservatives coalesce? >> if south carolina doesn't stand up and say we want a conservative on the ticket, ladies and gentlemen, we very well may not have one. coalesce, don't divide, coalesce around the candidate who's got the track record to be able to carry the message with conviction. >> or will ron paul and jon huntsman, will one of them b win the battle for independence? huntsman gained ground when he says expect a surprise. >> will's a lot of blue sky in this race. 75% of the voters who turned out said no how, no thanks to the establishment of the front-runner and i believe the same is true here in new hampshire. >> we shall see, by the way, a little note here, ron paul's campaign confirmed what a lot of us thought might be the case, not really going to campaign in florida, florida is winner take all, and therefore a closed primary. that means no democrats can go and vote. no same-day registration. paul is going to focus on the caucus states when the debate is over. as mitt romney reminded us, politics ain't bean bags, so we have got two guy who is loved the bean bag this morning. mike murphy, a long-time republican strategist, john sununu, the second or junior? >> we all go by our middle names. >> okay you're john e sununu. >> i proudly endorse. >> are you going to vote. >> yes, absolutely. >> is it fair to say you are a -- >> you haven't donated any money or anything. >> no, i have not donated any money. but i like him a lot. i worked for him at one time. >> senator, let's start with you, this is your home state, the history of the new hampshire primary, actually, it would be surprising if there were no surprises. >> absolutely. i think that's a great phrase number one, and one of the things that deliver a surprise at some level. is that most of the undecided voter also break not for mitt romney, who's at about 40%. >> plus or minus a couple of points. >> well noechbltknown. i don't think they'll break for ron paul. they have known who they're voting for a long, long time. and it appears, you know, from a couple of the more recent polls that john huntsman might be picking up a little bit more momentum among those undecided votes. >> going back to my lifetime of working on these, you know, covering these races since '92, is that pollsters are always trying to mess with the independent dial. this is not a balanced sample, it's always a random sample. and in 2000, they didn't know as many independents were coming. that's why a neck and neck race went to a blowout. that's the issue here, right. >> primary polling is hard because you don't really know who's there, and at the end now because of row bow calls, hey, come to our event. the phone's ringing off the hook and people don't answer it. so the polling is overrated. romney's got a cap here and ron paul has a cap. now romney has a cap you want to have. i think he's going to have about 45 or 56. but he's going to win and winning new hampshire is a big deal. all i really care about now is a second place race. that's basically, will somebody other than ron paul win? >> it seemed that santorum, who went to some of the events before high school. boy, you could see the working class catholic guy starting to work and maybe he can coalesce some conservatives. i feel like if you watch the events, he's still getting more enthusiastic crowds. >> i think his crowds or enthusiastic. people are interested. people are going to see these candidates even if they're not going to support them, because they like to listen to them, they like to see them. so the enthusiasm is there. i think you have santorum and gingrich in some ways pulling votes from one another. >> there's a little bit of vying, do you think it gets to 30, 35 combined? >> no, not 35. you might have one 15, 16, you might have one 10, 12. >> but there's still a hardcore conservative vote that's somewhere between 25 and 32? >> it's hard to say. and on the independent votes, things that makes it tough, two things, one, the number that part t participate. >> i know the obama campaign is trying to get a big number. >> it will be skewed toward republicans. but the other important fact is that independents in new hampshire going from the far right to the far left. there are conservatives, there are liberals and everything in between. and you can't just assume that they're all in the middle between democrats and republicans. they'll go for romney, they'll go for ron paul. a lot of independents going for ron paul. and jon huntsman will probably get more. >> i want to play a clip of romney during the debate. it's a rhetoric win. >> mr. speaker, citizenship has always been on my mind and i happened to see my dpad run for governor when he was 54 years old. he had good advice to me. he said never get involved in politics if you have to win an election to pay a mortgage. >> my key was responding to the pious bologna line, this idea that he was always looking to run for president. it does seem like romney tweaks sort of his history a little bit. revises it. no big lies or anything. but it's these little tweaks. and people go, why are you saying that? you don't need to say that. what's going on here. >> what he's trying to say is that he's proud to having got into politic it. but because the media is obsessed with pious warfare, whenever mitt romney talks about wealth, it's going to be a mistake. we have all got the electron microscope on mitt, he's going win this primary, he won iowa and even if he finishes a tight second in a tougher terrain for him, i think he's going to win florida. he can keep losing like theis al the way to the election. >> a year ago could you have imagined that the last attacks on mitt romney would have been about capitalism and not health care? >> it doesn't surprised me at all, in part because he's got a record, it's a record admit being in capital, some succeed, and some fail. and that's the nature of capitalism. it's always frustrating when a business doesn't succeed, a restaurant, a store, a shop, big or smauchlt. >> and you personally those? >> and that's part of his legacy, one way or another, both success and failure and it's going to be part of the general election. >> with respect to health care in south carolina, it's the new new hampshire and that's the state that romney may win. >> notice i didn't make you predict second place. i just don't like doing that to people. >> huntsman. >> there you go, it will be that way for about 12 hours. >> nothing for south carolina for him. that's the problem, where does he go. >> where does he go from there? >> the republican rivals, rick santorum tries to cut into the double-digit lead here. we have got representatives actually from all three candidates right here to game out the race. a little surrogate debate. if the obama is on the ballot th this. but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. we shall see. davs mavericks make it in dirk visits the white house. 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i don't see three candidates operating on tv. mitt romney, ron paul and jon huntsman. >> the money in the polls has transcended the issues. i came up here two months ago and the first thing newt said to me is don't go negative. >> but speaker gingrich is now gone negative, do you blame him? >> i don't hear anything about any personal stuff. i'm hearing issues stuff and no, i don't blame him at all, he's been savaged in the media by mitt romney and he has a right to respond. >> karen, i would say senator santorum came out of iowa with a bunch of momentum, he had a good 36 hours and then it seemed uneven events, getting to the high school student -- i. >> i think you're talking about the college convention and that was a setup. i mean those were college occupiers. >> you're weigh the lines down a little bit. >> he knew he was going to get that kind of a question, any conservative can expect that kind of a question coming out because it's one that's meant to divide and senator santorum has tried to reason with that student. >> you wish he didn't take the bait, then? >> you have no choice but to take the bait at that point and you have to talk to him and these students, i was actually there, these students were not willing to reason and they were not willing to come to a common ground where we can now discuss these issues openly and we should have those open discussions. its only to behoove the people of america if we do have those open discussions. >> congressman bass, how concern reasonable doubt you, you are well aware of new hampshire's primary history. >> sure. >> and everybody's conceding the race to mitt romney. well, he's going to win, and then that of course can create sort of this inevitability that leads to laziness and people not showing up. >> i've been worried about this for some time and i have been advising the romney campaign to run like they're three points behind in the polls. and they v all of his workers were doing door to door telephoning and clearly we had a good day yesterday. i think the vote is pretty settled right now, however we're not taking anything for granted in the next 24 hours. you know, a lot has been said about this big undecided vote. i'm beginning to believe that that undecideded vote, a lot of that isn't going to vote at all. because we're 21 hours out. and nobody is going to make any of the mistakes in the romney campaign that have been made by prior candidates who have been perceived as being front-runners. in the case of 2000 when he was working with george w. bush, we knew that he was not the front-runner, a lot earlier than now. >> but you didn't know you were 20 points behind. >> we didn't know we were 20 points behind, for sure. >> senator how concerned are you as a conservative here, and karen the same question to you, if there were just one conservative candidate, there would bn wouldn't be a battle for second place. >> certainly everyone has a right to run and that's america. we have -- no one, i think, has an issue with that, it is unfortunate because it is a division of the conservative vote. but i don't look at it that way, it's a voter's decision, it's not the candidate's decision. newt gingrich has led the cause, we would still be in the minority in the house right now if it hadn't been for newt gingrich. he's the leader, he's the one who brought the revolution to fruition and i think that's what it's about. >> and what is the. >> i'm looking at background and behavior and how things go. i'm a family person basically and that's where i'm looking at what is going to drive my vote and all of this. and i am looking at who's going to best represent a role model for our children in the future. and i have a real problem with newt newt gingrich and his marriages and his current wife being a home breaker in essence and while that shouldn't -- that's one of the things that i look at very seriously, and how is your behavior? yes, i do believe in transformation, but what was your behavior, what is your record? that's what i have to go on. >> and quickly congressman bass, i assume you guys would love for second place to go to anyone was newt gingrich or rick santorum? >> what we're all focussed on is winning in november. mitt romney is the candidate that will beat barack obama in november and as a member of congress, i want to be working in a different administration next year. >> congressman bass, senator smith. karen testerman, thank you all for joining and making your cases. new year, same worries, wall street watching europe this morning. plus a president page turner, a little bombshell book about michelle obama striking battles between the east wing and the west wing, sort of old divides in many a white house, and this white house not thrilled that it's become public. today's trivia question, since 1952, three democrats have won the new hampshire primary, who is that? the answer and more coming up on the daily rundown. when i grow up, i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight. i want to run a marathon. i'm going to own my own restaurant. when i grow up, i'm going to start a band. 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[ female announcer ] discover what's next in your life. get this free travel bag when you join at aarp.org/jointoday. 12 hour hold challenge. apply fixodent once, and it holds all day. ♪ take the fixodent 12 hour hold challenge. guaranteed, or your money back. ♪ like splenda® essentials™ no calorie sweeteners. this bowl of strawberries is loaded with vitamin c. and now, b vitamins to boot. coffee doesn't have fiber. unless you want it to. splenda® essentials™ are the first and only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. mmm. same great taste with an added "way to go, me" feeling. splenda® essentials™. get more out of what you put in. you're looking at live pictures who's holding faith, family and freedom town halls. newt gingrich, ron paul and mitt romney are all campaigning in new hampshire today. just minute ace way from the opening bell. time for the market rundown. we have our big sponsor back. >> i'm here. i'm with you. and you are the hardest working man in showbiz and in politics, i have to tell you. >> that always is reserved for lester holt. >> you're right, him too. there's a few of you up there. let me tell you about the markets right now. we are looking to open flat. you might take that as a victory lap already this morning. because if you look at the first week of january, the markets hended higher, we saw the dow up and the s&p up. this is the january effect. the first week of january is how the first month goes, and that is how the year goes. we're already dodging some bullets. there was a meeting earlier this morning between angela merkel. and they issued a press conference a couple of hours ago, no bad news really coming out of this. every time all these people speak, we hold our breath and wait to see if anything happens with any of the markets. they say there's a good chance that a deal could be reach for the european fiscal compact by the end of the month. >> my favorite predpictor was te winner of the super bowl. >> this gets really tricky because they go back to the teams that had a split. you can twist it a bunch of different ways. >> it's all a dart board sometimes. daily run down will be back in 30 seconds. >> prosecutors alleged a 28-year-old was sent to iran on an intelligence mission, but his family has rejected those accusations. the state department has repeatedly demanded the man's release. it comes on the same day that iran confirms reports that it has begun enriching nuclear material at a second underground bunker in iran. congresswoman gabby giffords returned to tucson one year after the shooting that killed six people and left her critically wounded. giffords led the crowd in the pledge. the book the obamas alleges feuds between the first lady and the president's staff and says she once told the french first lady that living in the white house was hell and first lady was not interviewed for the book, what really has washington buzzing is that it's the west wing senior staffers, either ex-staffers or current ones. one advisor jeremy jar shut. tony blankly has died. he worked as a journalist and a regular commentator on tv. he was 63 years old and just one of the great gentlemen of washington. the guy never would just yell or say bad things about people, just hood a very, very elegant way about him. he'll be misse