House budget chair paul ryan says he wants compromise on entitlement reform, but theres no mention of obama care. Hmm, i wonder whether hes talked to speaker boehner. Instead of making it easier for people to get health insurance, its going to be a lot tougher. What a train wreck. How can we tax people for not buying a product from a website that doesnt work . And then theres the very influential Heritage Action group, which wants the debt ceiling off the table and for the focus to be on obama care. Okay, so i guess they talked to the speaker. And lets not neglect the always productive stop subsidizing abortion or were going to shut this place down argument. Yeah, good luck with that one. Are you confused yet . So are we. Luke russert, help me out here. What do republicans actually want . Well, im still thrown off. I cant decide. Tell us what you want, luke. Is that scary . Was it posh . Was it ginger . Was it sporty . We dont know. Just like we dont know what the next wave forward is going to be up here on capitol hill. What i can tell you is just before i came over, Heritage Action, that group you mentioned, said they would not score a vote on the sixweek temporary debt limit funding bill that they want to move forward. So the boehner bill presumably could get the support of the gop conference if democrats say they dont want to go along and support it. However, going forward, boehner will have that meeting at the white house coming up with the rest of the gop leadership. Theyre going to see what the president s response is to this latest bill by the gop leadership. Theres one issue within the bill, though, thats not getting a lot of attention. It says within the bill the treasury cannot use extraordinary powers to move the debt limit back past november 22nd. That could upset some folks in the executive branch. Lets look at this in a broad sense. You could have the house vote tomorrow on a sixweek extension of the debt limit. That would avert economic catastrophe. The worlds economy would survive, at least for six more weeks. The United States senate might not like that. But it would open the door for folks to go into a room and have these largescale bipartisan negotiations that the gop said they want so badly. However, while this all happens, the government is still shut down. So everybody whos been affected by this shutdown will continue to be affected most likely in a negative way. So that is something where the house gop now believes they can use as leverage with the president , and they dont want to blend all thesing to. Thats where youre seeing Heritage Action come through. They feel if they can get the debt limit off their plate, they can then refocus this on the health care law, and that can be part of wideranging discussions that could take us up to thanksgiving. Is the government shut down at thanksgiving . Possibility. Probably not. But as far as business as usual going up here in washington, d. C. , we wont likely see it. So a lot of moving parts. Unclear as to how exactly it will come to an end. What we do know know is it looks like theres a real drive in the gop house conference to not default on the United States debt and avert that catastrophe. When theyll reopen the government, we dont necessarily know the answer to that question. Youre starting to see a deal come together, shall we say. All right, luke russert, our spice girls fan on the hill. Thank you, as always. Die hard fan. All right. Lets turn now to our friend josh barro, who wrote a piece that caught my attention, the most irresponsible officials in washington, d. C. Are the moderate republicans, who as you say have had the ability to reopen the government and break the extremist grip on the caucus agenda but chose not too. I, too, have been frustrated with moderate republicans. Help unwrap this. Theyve stayed quiet or not not voted in the ways they needed to. If you remember back to september 30th, you had this back and forth between the house and senate where the house kept passing bills that made demands to keep the government open. The senate would send those bills back as a clean continuing resolution to keep the government open. Around 9 00 p. M. Or so, the House Republicans vote on their last offer. You had peter king, whos a moderate republican from the new york area, saying that this is a bad idea and they should just pass a clean continuing resolution and he has 20 to 25 moderate republicans who will vote against the rule to bring leaderships new proposal to the floor. If theyd done that, that would have left House Republicans with no offer to make to the senate and they might have had to pass a clean continuing resolution. Instead, all who showed up was peter king and one other guy. Everybody else voted yes. These moderates who say they want to reopen the government have been going along with leaderships shifting strategy, whatever that is day to day. Its not reopen the government. I dont know that all of the folks who have said they support a clean cr in the republican caucus, i dont know that theyre all getting push back on this, but i know some of the republican virginia members of congress have been getting push back on fact that do you really support a clean cr when you dont support this. But going back to lukes reporting there, i can see how we could get to a debt ceiling extension. Lets take a listen to what jay carney had to say about this. I think the president said the other day that if they were to send them a clean debt ceiling extension, no partisan strings attached, he would sign it. We dont know thats what were going to get here. Ted cruz has also said hes open to shortterm debt ceiling extensions. So the white house obviously there leaving some room where they could support a shortterm extension. I can see how that could be resolved, at least for now. Is there anything that is going to bring the Government Shutdown piece of this to an end, or is this going to become sort of the new normal in the way the sequester has . I think its not clear. It cant become the new normal in the way the sequester has because the government still works under sequestration. Youve had spending cuts that might be unwise and that are causing problems in a lot of departments, but its not a crisis in the way that the Government Shutdown will become a crisis if it drags on for weeks and weeks and federal employees arent getting paid and programs like the wic program that provides nutrition assistance to pregnant women, those things will start shutting down if we stay shutdown. We cant go on forever, but we could go on for several more weeks. I dont really see what the way out is. When you talk with republicans and democrats in washington, democrats seem convinced that the only out on the shutdown is republicans fold. They figure out sooner or later that this was a misadventure, that its making them very unpopular and they have to give up. Republicans feel like they cant do that because it will be too much of a loss of face and the conservative base will be too angry. So you have Tea Party Conservatives who are completely out of touch with reality and think theyre going to get a big win. You have more republicans in the boehner camp who realize thats a fantasy but still feel like they have to get something for shutting down the government. A sense of pride, yeah. Ari, what do you got . Youre in my seat, josh, but you look better in it than i do. I appreciate that. Any time. The big news today, of course, is this offer thats potentially being floated of the sixweek extension of the debt ceiling. As usual, what sounds good to people in washington doesnt necessarily make sense in the rest of the country. From where im sitting, help me understand it, but this sounds like a terrible idea. Number one, because it doesnt move us at all towards a longterm fiscal plan. Number two, because it clearly normalizes the kind of blackmail thats going on. You could see that in the reporting already. Number one, there are extra requirements here. Luke russert just referring to them. For example, limiting how the treasury can manage a selfinflected default event. I dont know why wed want to do that. Number two, that we should go through the six weeks, kick the can down the road, and have more negotiations again with the specter of the debt ceiling hanging over those negotiations. And my biggest concerns, speak to the normalization of radical behavior here. A shortterm increase makes everyone around the country go, oh, i guess this is just how it works and you cry wolf enough and theres going to be less pressure. I actually disagree with that, ari. I dont think a shortterm increase is great, but i think its better than not having one. I think thats why the stock market is way up today. People are a lot less afraid were about to have a crisis event. I think also think it signals republicans are actually unwilling to allow us to hit the debt ceiling. We saw a signal of this in january. Republicans were saying that they were going to attach big demands to the debt ceiling increase, that they wanted another big round of spending cuts. Then by january, what they actually passed was a debt ceiling increase that was effectively clean. The only thing that they got in return was that Senate Democrats agreed to pass a nonbinding budget that didnt even need to be reconciled with the house budget. I think were seeing again that republicans like making threats around the debt ceiling, but they will get afraid when they get too close to it because they know theyll be blamed for an economic calamity. Not only are we getting an extension now, but i think it signals if we havent got an deal by the end of november, republicans will feel no choice but to raise the debt limit again. It would be nice to have a functional government where we werent sliding from crisis to crisis, but this is at least a positive signal that the crisis wont get to the worst possible scenario. I hope that they know that were leading toward an economic calamity. Now we have all these default deniers who are saying, no, no, no, its not going to be a big deal, we can do that. But let me get you to talk about some of the or one of the key sort of underlying structural reasons why we are here. Weve talked about jergerryman r gerrymandering. We havent talked about money and how Campaign Finance has changed over the last few decades leading to the situation were in now. First read had a bit about this the other day saying, the relationship between lawmakers and parties financially has led to the decentralization were seeing where the far right of the party says, i dont need to listen to you. Gone are the days of earmarks where a speaker could say, hey, were going to put a bridge in your district and go along with this on this other thing that might be hard for you. Gone are the days when the rnc is the biggest financial source of your life. Heritage and club for growth are bigger financial sources for a lot of these representatives. That is a very dangerous trend, isnt it, for the gop and a big reason why the far right is saying, i dont need to listen to the leadership and theyre leading the establishment. I think it is a dangerous trend for republicans. I think theres an irony here where liberals have been so upset about the Citizens United decision and all the money its injected into politics. I think the main outcome is it has caused the Republican Party to tear itself apart because of the way the new money dynamics are influencing the party. But i think the other reason youre seeing that is that business interests that have traditionally been associated with the Republican Party, theyre unhappy about what republicans are doing right now. But theyre not really willing to line up against them for it. Theyre not stepping up to the plate. Theyre speaking out. Theyre speaking out, but im wondering at what point does the Democratic Party become the party of the northeastern Business Establishment . For 160 years as the Republican Party has gone through changes, its always been the party of wealthy northeastern if thats not a wakeup call to republicans, i dont know what is. I dont want to go further down the rabbit hole to find out what else lies ahead in a post Citizens United world and what other changes will come out of that. That sounds frightening. I think whats happening right now is very frightening. I think republicans should be frightened too, not just for the country, but for the future of their own party. They think theyre protected by this electoral map in the house. If they lost the National Popular vote in the house by, say, six points, they would lose the majority. I think thats possible. Its incredibly problematic. This lack of authority is a real problem. Josh barro, great to have you. Youre welcome at the grownups table any time. Ill told you to that. Next up, mr. President f youre watching in the white house, you might want top listen to this. An expert says hes got more cards to play than people may realize. The cycle rolls on for this thursday, october 10th. Asional have constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating . Yes one Phillips Colon Health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these digestive issues. With three strains of good bacteria. [ Phillips Lady ] live the regular life. Phillips. A confident retirement. Those dreams, theres just no way were going to let them die. Like they helped millions of others. By listening. Planning. Working one on one. Thats what Ameriprise Financial does. Thats what they can do with you. Thats how ameriprise puts more within reach. Thats how ameriprise puts more within reach. announcer answer the call of the grill with new friskies grillers, full of meaty tenders and crunchy bites. As you just heard, republicans are pushing a new plan that will not end the shutdown but does push the debt ceiling off another six weeks. We stare in the face of extended deadlock and have a shutdown expert to explain the mechanics for us. Charles is a law professor at the university of Baltimore School of law. He was also a Legal Adviser to the house of representatives before the 1995 shutdown and specializes in disputes of congressional separation of powers. Professor, thank you so much for joining us. My pleasure. So one of the things that weve heard from the right wing, particularly from right wing media, is that the president is intentionally making the shutdown painful just to prove some political point. But this is all governed by precedent in the antideficiency act, correct . We have a history from attorney general opinions in 1980, the 1995 shutdown, so there is precedent, at least for whats gone on in the shutdown so far. But the situation is starting to change. Our precedent goes only so far as the 1995 shutdown when it went to 21 days. Now, that was bad, but the focus in the guidance at that time and what weve inherited as the precedent was on the day of the shutdown start, which for us would have been october 1st. Shutting everything down that isnt needed that day on an emergency basis. Now that we are having our shutdown, which may last a while, and i know you said in the segment before me, you noted it could become the new normal. People dont see any way to get out of it unless the republicans sort of change their position. So as it gets longer, i think that we define the risks and dangers that have to be dealt with as the longterm ones, and the many functions of the federal government that deal with longer term problems, things like the chemical safety board that tries to see whether disasters can be prevented, the health and Human Services scientists who look for cancer drugs. These problems which begin to chafe much more as we go past 21 days. All the while, so many people are hurting. Talk to us about this unexpected card that the Obama Administration can play as this continues to drag on. What are some of the steps they can take to help ease the pain . Well, the mechanics are that the office of management and budget issues governmentwide bulletins. Were operating from the ones that did back in 2011, which are not like our situation. Besides the dangers from health risks that need to be coped with, there are veterans claims where veterans who are disabled, and thats not just veterans from any particular war, that covers all the way from world war ii up to those who are coming back from afghanistan. Their disability claims are not being touched. Women, infant, and Children Food supplementation is soon going to run out. I might say, which people wouldnt consider an emergency, but they sure understand the irs has shut down refunds. The irs is only processing returns that put money into the pressure ri. Its not paying out refunds. There are people who take checks in anticipation of these refunds. Not just a few but many. They are going to be hurting. Thats very problematic. Sir, lets look ahead to where this might end up. They say theres a very consistent voter response when you have divided government. Almost always the legislatures get blamed and the executives do not. Is that your understanding of how these things it play out electorally in the long run . Exactly. Im studying the 1995 shutdown, not coming up with surprises, but if you look closely, it was the end of the Gingrich Congress as far as pushing through radical legislation. President clinton came out of what had been a discouraging lowlevel support from the public before it and went up to getting public support. Hey, professor, good to be with you. The shutdown is a bummer for a lot of people. As a shutdown expert, i suppose this is like christmas for you, at least intellectually. What i want to ask you is a little broader, beyond the antideficiency act. People dont know this. This is krystals one of her favorite federal laws. True story. No, its not. She loves that part of the federal code. But beyond all of that, how we manage shutdowns, talk to us about the legitimacy of a shutdown or other threats in the context of inner branch relations. Some scholars, some law professors have argued that at a certain point, this kind of threat, while not technically unconstitutional unde