Brian Williams examines the days top political stories and current politicalcampaign news. You need a recount. If that is correct and get what it is, the other thing we know is they have apparently under state law until august 24th to certify this election. Were sitting here on august 7th, weve got 17 days, more than two weeks until this has to be certified. If you have that tenday waiting period and then it comes under 0. 5, you know, youre short of that certification. So the law isnt putting a real lot of pressure on them here to get this certified. The law as we understand it is saying its going to be ten days before they can open these. Again, if im a betting man, if you come out here and say, kornacki, your life is on the line, who is going to win this thing, i would tell you balderson, he looks in much better position than oconnor to win this thing. Are you telling me are you sure hes going to win it by more than 0. 45 points and therefore avoid a recount, oh, no, i wouldnt tell you that at all. Recounts, the history of these things doesnt suggest oconnor
will overcome a deficit of that magnitude, but you have to have the recount and you have to see. Meanwhile of course these two candidates are both going to be on the ballot as their parties nominees for this district in november. The clock ticks, maybe were in november before we get a final answer and in two months they go to the polls again in this district. I would never ask you to bet your life, youre too good at what you dont. And we dont allow wagering. Steve kornacki, please dont move, i believe balderson is coming out onstage shortly. In the interim, Garrett Haake, our correspondent, is standing by at Danny Oconnors campaign headquarters. You saw, we heard from the candidate. Garrett, on nights like this they try to give neither a victory nor concession, though theyve got to hit certain markers. As weve mentioned, tonight is the night to pivot to november for both of these guys. Reporter yeah, brian, this was even more of an in tweener speech than you might otherwise
see in a race like this, effectively too close to call, because the race doesnt really stop tomorrow. Its just another marker. Now we have a quasi incumbent. Now were going to go to balderson. Very honored to represent the voters of the 12th district. I have so many people to thank tonight. Behind me right here, my john joshua, his fiance, hes getting married next april. My girlfriend melanie. I want to thank god. More importantly, my mom and dad who werent able to be here with us this evening. The thousands and thousands of volunteers that worked this grassroots campaign. Thank you all very, very much for all that you have done. The phone banking, the door knocking, all of it. Its been phenomenal. Its a great honor for me. I would like to thank President Trump. I would also like to take the time to thank Vice President pence for coming. And the big shoes that ill be filling, i wouldnt have got through a lot without him through this process. Congressman pat tiber. I would also like to take this opportunity and time to also thank chairman steve stiver, hes been a great asset to me through this process. Chairman, thank you. Theres many others. I could just keep going on and on. But tonight im going to promise to you that im going to work relentlessly, relentlessly for this 12th congressional district. America is on the right path and were going to keep it going that way. Its time to get to work. Over the next three months, im going to do everything i can to keep America Great again. So that when we welcome when we come back here in november, get ready, we got to come back here in november, i have earned your vote for a second time. Danny oconnor ran a hard race
and i look forward to campaigning against him again this fall. Thank you all so much for all your support. God bless you and god bless america. All right. Troy balderson. And lets repeat the way we opened the hour from our decision desk, and this is boston germane and important to everything were watching and trying to understand tonight, this race is too close to call. We will not be calling this race tonight. So look, theres a possibility youll see other News Organizations give estimates or the like. We are not. Thats where we stand, separated by 1,754. As Steve Kornacki has so ably laid out for us, we have something north of 3,400 socalled provisional ballots. We believe this is triggered the states own system to look back through all the votes cast. This is going to be a while. And lets not forget, they get to run again in november. Before we were interrupted by the republican candidate, we were talking to Garrett Haake at democratic headquarters. Garrett, you were talking about how it has to be half Victory Speech, half concession speech, although officially neither. Reporter thats right, Danny Oconnor leaving the door open to continue campaigning. The speech he gave sounded like his typical stump speech. He considers this a midway point in the race towards november. You didnt hear that from Troy Balderson at all. You heard much more of a traditional Victory Speech with the acknowledgement that hes got to do this all over again in november. The other big thing you heard from balderson, i think this is important, the big thank you to donald trump. You showed the president s tweet earlier, brian. I think you would be hard pressed to find a republican in
ohio who disagrees with the central premise, namely that it was donald trump who was able to carry Troy Balderson across the finish line here. He did not have a great last couple of days campaigning. But he did get a big boost from the president who in some part had to essentially remind Republican Voters that there was a special election happening this week and his agenda was on the line. Every republican strategist i talked to this week said that balderson needed that boost to juice his numbers in the more reliably Republican Voters who just werent huge Troy Balderson fans coming into this weekend. How about a word about this district . Our viewers along with us kind of fly into these districts where on nights like tonight theres no more important stretch of real estate in this whole country politically. But what an interesting part of the country it is. Youve got the terrific city of columbus, ohio, its northern reaches, then stretches the
countryside that look just like the american midwest. Reporter yeah, absolutely, brian. It is that mix of suburban, a little bit of the city of columbus, and a whole lot of rural, expansive ohio here that makes up this district. The democratic candidate here is 31 years old. In his life hes never been represented here by a democrat. The mix of voters here have always elected your probusiness, country club, Chamber Of Commerce types of republicans. John kasich represented this district before ultimately becoming governor of this state. Pat teaberry very much in the same model. Republicans voted for the donald trump party. The Operating Theory was do people who drive volvos and go to Country Clubs in those suburbs around the district, these welleducated, wealthier voters, are they really going to stick with donald trump and really stick with his agenda in the face of what weve seen over the last year and a half . The answer appeared to be yes on those moderate republicans, the swing county, and i dont want to get two steep into steves lane. Delaware county did stick with the republican here. But you did see this enormous turnout of democrats who have turned their back on this president from that suburban part of this. Brian, there are dozens of districts that look enough like this in numbovember that theyle picking this apart based on the lessons they learned tonight. Moral victories do not a House Majority make, they have to get across the finish line in these districts in november. Garrett haake, thanks, buddy, for your live reporting this evening, we really appreciate it. Our leadoff panel, Kimberly Atkins is back with us. Chief washington reporter for the boston herald. She, as you see, is on the hill. Here with us in new york, John Heilemann is back with us, long time political journalist, coauthor of both game change and double down. We did a little bit of both tonight in ohio. And El Eli Stokols is with us tonight. What do you think they make of a barn burner in this district in ohio during this time . I think there is some concern. Im talking and texting with some as we talk right now. There is a lot of concern. Look, dozens of districts that are up in the midterms are not as red as the ohio 12th. And the fact that this was such a squeaker, even if they come out with a w at the end of it, its quite an erosion of support for donald trump, who won that district by 12 points. I know the president is claiming victory tonight, and it might be the case that he energized
republicans enough just to squeak over, to squeak out a win here. But he also energized democrats in a way to really get out the vote. One thing that the president tweeted that is true is that its august, and its a time when a lot of people are on vacation, a lot of people arent thinking about politics. Democrats were still able to mobilize people, it sounds like particularly in the suburbs, which is going to be a crucial battleground. I think republicans have to be really concerned about that. All right, John Heilemann, here in our new york studios, as they like to ask during moments like this, what have we learned so far this evening . Im a big fan of the one is a win school, you win a race. It looks like the republican has run this race. Hats off for winning the race, because thats all that matters. We have to hasten to point out we cant declare at this point. Thats why i said it looks like. Absolutely. I got your modifier. The second thing im a Big Fan Of In analysis is context
and kimberly has provided some, and people on this network have been providing it all night. The fact that its a squeaker, a nailbiter, that were still too close to call at this hour, means that democrats should have a lot to be happy about here. Theyve looked at this race and said, you know, but for a couple of a few votes here, we could steal this race and we have 90 days to do that with these same candidates on the ballot. Democrats are right to feel good about what theyve done here tonight. This should not be a contested race let alone a race thats a razor thin margin. But again, republicans get the win and you cant take that away from him, assuming that things hold, they get this win, and, you know, you cant gainsay that. Eli stokols, i heard a noted political expert on another network tonight say the following. Quote, if democrats can do this well in a district 88 white, they will retake the house. And i think right now thats what i hear when i talk to analysts and consultants on both sides. At least when it comes to the house, the wind is at the democrats back, the numbers look good. If theyre running double digits ahead of where they ran in 2016, they are going to take the number of seats that they need to win a majority, most likely, better than 50 chance at this point. But i think, you know, you go back to the president s tweet, there have been a lot of Donald Trump Tweets that ring less true than what he said tonight. Yes, hes going to take a lot of credit for this. Thats obvious. But pollsters on the ground in it ohio have said that they saw better numbers, especially in those rural precincts, after he was there. Hes also right that it is an interesting time to vote. What he didnt get into in the tweet, but what he said on saturday and what hes been saying over the last couple of weeks, hes got the loudest megaphone in the country. When he can hang his hat on
democrats, just a couple of, it only takes two new york democrats to say abolish i. C. E. To remind voters who are on the face, you may not love me and everything, but here is where the Democratic Party is going these days, that is also effective. I know Danny Oconnor said im not going to Support Pelosi For Speaker but he bungled that in the interview with Chris Matthews and that wasnt convincing. Democrats have a win at their backs but it does take candidates and it does take some convincing some of these voters. I love my friend eli stokols, but i will say this, this Isnt The Biggest Lie the president has told on twitter. The governor of ohio, john kasich, who is the antitrump governor, who came in and cut an add for balderson in the last week of the race. But waited very late. Waited very late, but its
late in race this close. Who had more effect on this race at the end . Governor kasich by coming in at the end, a guy with a 65 Approval Rating in the state, or donald trump coming in, especially the way balderson performed in some of the republican suburbs where the president didnt help him, john kasich did. Who did balderson thank . He thanked the president , Vice President , congressman teaberry. He didnt mention john kasich. John is correct that the turnout may have been because he didnt just have the trump wing but he also had Kasich Vouching for him as well. S in this is a case where you have the two wings of the Republican Party pulling for him. The fact that he didnt come onstage and even say john kasichs name also tells you something. Hes afraid of the trump base. And again, youre not going to see this in many races where
republicans have the money to spend in a race that they should easily win where youre going to have outside democratic groups outspending them by five times and where youll get a republican governor with a 65 Approval Rating and the president of the United States on the same side. This is an unusual set of circumstances that barely pulled the republican across, if the results hold. We have part two of the trump tweet tonight on this race. It seems he wasnt done. Congratulations to Troy Balderson on a great win in ohio, a very special, i think that means special election, and important race. What has he ever done, brian . You said it seems like hes not done. When is he ever done . Thats true, it all seems like a continuation. Is there a vetted process for the campaigns the president will visit . We just learned he may make a
stop in texas for ted cruz, for example. There was some hubbub about who cleared the president to come into ohio, who requested it, who gave their permission in this case. But its also indisputable, he moved votes. Yeah, i mean, youre using words like vetting and permission as if it thats something that the as if thats something that the president ever goes by. It will be a matter of the president choosing his gut and getting into this. This, which hes calling a win and other republicans are calling a win tonight even though its still technically too close to call, will probably boost him in that effort. One thing you have to watch is there are still some contested primaries coming up between candidates who are more mainstream republicans and others who are very trumpy candidates who the president is going to be eager to back. So in this case you did see kasich and trump on the same
side, the same candidate, bringing those voters together. Thats going to be a big factory moving forward if the republicans are going to be able to create that unity, to get behind people, to get them over the finish line in november, if those fights are nasty, it will be a lot more difficult to do. Thats one of the many factors, including how nancy pelosi plays in these races. We still dont know the answer for sure yet. We have to take a closer look at how these precincts voted. President trump is definitely going to be on the Campaign Trail, whether the candidates hes backing like it or not. Hey, john, a moment for civics. So lets say, again, to take your point for the purposes of argument, the republican wins, lets say we dont have an official call for days. They become a sitting member of congress. You dont get to inherent the seniority of the republican youre replacing. You get bumped down, get terrible office space and not much of it. As a practical matter, you inherit much of the staff from the last member of congress, just so you can hit the ground running. You put some stuff on the walls, you get letterhead printed, but you never feel permanent. Twoyear terms, its tough to feel permanent because youve got to go out and sing for your supper in november. Look, both these guys said in their speeches tonight they have to get out there and start working again, have to start raising money again. And serve constituents. Theyll try to serve constituents, although in reality, after labor day, congress will probably go out of session. The house, people will go home. With as hard as they work . I know, shocking, right . The reality is, unless the president tries to engineer a Government Shutdown between now and november, the amount of legislative business that gets done on the house side is relatively limited. Youll be involved in the national discourse, the national dialogue. You might have some things to vote on, you wont be completely
useless, but essentially from now until the race is run again youll be engaged in the act of fulltime politics even though you need to pretend youre involved in other things like constituent service and occasionally filling that office in one of those three buildings on the house side. Eli stokols, how legitimately happy do you think the president is, assuming, again, at the end of this race, that the republican wins. We certainly wont know tonight. When donald trump gets anything that he can portray as a victory, he is a happy guy. And he is going to play that up. And i think thats why youve seen two tweets tonight already. He may call the pool back to bedminster tomorrow and hold a press conference. You never know. But this is a guy who is going to, for better or worse, insert himself in every election race, every one of these races that he can. Republican consultants, a lot of them dont want him in this race, they think there are
certain places where he will be helpful, others where he should stay away. But this election is about donald trump. Hes already in there. Hes proven when he goes and does these rallies he can juice the republican turnout, the base vote. The question is what happens in those districts that are closer, how does he also animate those voters who are already predisposed to vote against him, does he bring more of those out . Especially on the house side, thats something the republicans are worried about. I like to talk about the 90s with brian, because we both remember the Clinton Administration and were both old men. You remember vividly in 1994 when bill clinton was out on the Campaign Trail after labor day. There came a point when the situation was so dire, there were a lot of democrats saying to bill clinton, go home, dont campaign. That happens. Its not unusual. This was a big wave of democrats who said stay home and the president listened, i went off the Campaign Trail at the end of 1984 and said, you guys know your politics better than i know your politics, im a political
animal, im going to sit around the white house and watch College Football for the last few months. A lot of republicans are saying, if you can just take the itinerary not through my district, can you imagine donald trump hearing that and saying, you know what, im going to defer to the congressman on this matter . Ill be here in the residence. Thats the Sentiment Kim Atkins was picked up tonight when we went to her. Our thanks to our initial panel tonight. To Kimberly Atkins on capitol hill, and here in new york, John Heilemann, eli stokols, much obliged, thank you all for coming out on a busy night. Coming up, Paul Manafort predictably began gnawing at the star witness on things like implement and adultery. And later, new Criminal Suspicion surrounding President Trumps former fix and her long term personal lawyer michael cohen. His problems, while they still do not number 99, now may
include Tax Fraud Charges and the potential for a very long jail sentence. The 11th hour on a busier than average tuesday night, just getting under way. I put a spell on you yeah, because youre mine with Chase Atms Serena can now grab cash on the go, all with the tap of her phone. Stop the things you do no card . No problem. Life, lived serenas way. Chase, make more of whats yours. Hundred roads named park in the u. S. Its americas most popular street name. But Allstate Agents know thats where the similarity stops. If youre on park street in reno, nevada, the high winds of the Washoe Zephyr could damage your siding. And thats very different than living on park ave in sheboygan, wisconsin, where ice dams could cause water damage. But no matter what park you live on, one of 10,000 local Allstate Agents knows yours. Now that you know the truth, are you in good hands . Come hok. , babe. Nasty Nighttime Heartburn . Try new alkaseltzer pm gummies. The only fast, Powerful Heartburn Relief Plus Melatonin so you can fall asleep quickly. Oh, what a relief it is are you ready to take your then you need xfinity xfi. . A more powerful way to stay connected. It gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most Wifi Coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. Its the ultimate wifi experience. Xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. Mr. Manafort had a great day. Rick gates, the star witness in the financial fraud trial of former Trump Campaign chairman Paul Manafort, was back on the stand today, day six of this trial. And the defense was quick to go after the credibility of the witness. Manaforts lawyers pressed gates on his lies to muellers team
before he agreed to a plea deal. They brought up an extramarital affair that gates had and asked him about the money he had embezzled from manaforts operation. Most of the testimony centered on the financial schemes that prosecutors say manafort developed to avoid paying taxes and maintain his lifestyle even as his income dried up at one point. Gates told the court that manafort directed him to disguise millions of dollars in foreign income as loans and to funnel money through Shell Companies outside the u. S. Gates portrayed manafort as a man who essentially went broke after his Income Stream as a consultant to russianlinked candidates in the ukraine vanished. Also today Donald Trumps name was mentioned in front of the jury for the first time in this trial. And prosecutors presented evidence that manafort tries to use his leverage in the Trump Campaign to get one of his lenders a job in the administration. It never stops. With us tonight, barbara
mcquade, former u. S. Attorney for the Eastern District of michigan, who was inside court for todays testimony. Shes at the end of a long day for herself. Eli hoening is with us, former Assistant Attorney General for the state of new jersey. Peter baker, chief White House Correspondent for the new york times. Good evening too you all, i apologize for the late hour. Barbara, i have to hear about the parts of this that we are not allowed to see, cameras are not allowed in the court. What were the atmospherics like, especially between gates and mueller . It was very interesting to see gates testify. He never made contact with Paul Manafort. He would look at the
prosecutoring and tprosecutoor or at the jury. I thought gates did fairly well on his direct examination. They used a lot of documents that he connected the dots. A lot of it was corroborated with email and other documents. I thought he didnt do well on crossexamination, he seemed evasive and argumentative. I think he admitted to a lot of fraud and a lot of lies and i think the Body Language of the jury was that they werent liking rick gates very much. They put him in the middle for a reason, they used to call it the cooperator sandwich, you start strong, end strong, put someone at the end to allow you to recover. The prosecutors will say, we didnt choose rick gates to be our witness, it was Paul Manafort who chose him to be his associate. No one needs to tell you, barbara, federal judges have enormous power in our society. They are nominated by the president. They have to be approved by the
senate. And they sit on the bench for life. That said, this particular bridge, nominated by president ronald reagan, has played an interesting role in this case. And a lot of people have come away with interesting opinions. Today he kind of participated in the case. Tell us your assessment of what youve seen. Well, throughout the trial hes been very handson. He injects himself quite a bit. He asks questions of witnesses. He seems very smart and very engaged, in many ways those are positive things. You know, ive never seen any judge get so involved in the case. And today some of the questions he asked were things lawyers might not want to ask but today he actually made astatement, when rick gates testified that Paul Manafort was deeply involved in financial matters, the judge said something to the effect of, obviously not very involved, otherwise you wouldnt have been able to steal so much money from him. A really inflammatory comment as this supposedly independent Authority Figure in the courtroom, an expert on the law, i worry about the impact of a Statement Like that in front of the jury. Barbara, if youre the prosecutor in this case, was gates wobbly enough to worry about . I would be a little bit worried about him. I think they can probably rehabilitate him. Again, i think that theres enough corroborating evidence in the documents that have come into the case and its consistent with what other witnesses are saying, that they should be all right. The only worry i have is that the jury, who did seem to have some very negative Body Language about gates, is so put off by h him. But if they look at this objectively, there is still sufficient and significant evidence to convict Paul Manafort. Eli, barbara is the one who invoked the word sandwich, its late and were hungry. Here is your star witness. Hes in an interesting location within the trial. Its mostly a paper case. I guess this means youve got to end strong. Youve got to have a great closer and wrap it all up for the members of that jury. The most important thing you can do as a prosecutor when youre putting on a cooperating witness, you know theyre going to take some damage. You know the defense is going to score some points on them. You have to be able to rally back with corroboration, Independence Evidence that backs up the corroborator, so youre not just saying to the jury, take this criminals word for it. What weve seen so far, the mueller team has done a great job of doing that. All the witnesses leading up to rick gates, the accountant, the bookkeeper, the vendors, have had a common theme of, Man Aenforcememanafort knew where every dollar went. In one email, manafort said, its in pdf, can you send it back to me in word . Because you can alter a word document but not a pdf. That kind of evidence can stick in the jurys mind. You need a great closer here. Or in some instances, a boring closer. It doesnt sound like they have a superstar like a rivera ready to go, it sounds like they have a couple of guys with 350 eras to get you to the end of the game. But look, boring can be good after an explosive cooperator like this. Put a little distance between the cooperator and the closing arguments, let things settle back down, call a couple of more straightup financial types, and then let it go to closing. Peter baker, you have a great 30,000foot view of all of this. And bring us back to this question, why did Paul Manafort offer himself up to donald trump and why did he do so for free . Right. Thats a really good question and one were unfortunately not hearing addressed yet at this trial, anyway, and one that goes much more to the Central Point of the president of the United States and what does this mean in terms of our understanding about donald trump and the campaign that he waged in 2016. By the time that Paul Manafort becomes involved in the campaign, he has been cut off from his sources of funding in the ukraine, from his russianbacked, you know, money source, and therefore hes offering himself with no money asked from donald trump. Why . One might suspect, of course, that hes using this to try to rehabilitate himself, perhaps to offer some sort of advantage to his russian backers to whom he apparently owes some money. He did at one point offer private briefings to oleg deripaska, the oligarch to him he was indebted. Thats not what the prosecutors
are trying to prove today, theyre trying to prove violations of tax law and so forth. To the larger electorate who cares about the president and cares about the leadership of the country, trying to figure out what this means, thats the central question. And for the larger public who has heard perhaps the president try to diminish Paul Manafort, was with us for just a very short period of time, there will always be the president taking the other side of that argument. Here is an example of that. We have great people. Paul manafort. He doesnt have to do this. Like i dont have to, he didnt need to do this. He called me and said, this is something special. Peter baker, how will we look back on that sound bite perhaps in six months . Well, like a lot of things President Trump has said or tweeted in the past, he probably wishes he could take it back or at least the people around him wish they could take it back. He was impressed to have Paul Manafort volunteer because manafort had a long history of republican politics. He had been involved in the 1976 campaign for gerald ford, 1996 for bob dole, et cetera, et cetera. This is something of a validation for trump at that time to get somebody with manaforts experience in national politics. However, a lot of people around town knew that manafort had these sort of shady connections. A lot of people around washington knew to keep away from him. Therefore you have to say did the president of the United States or the candidate who wanted to be the president of the United States have any knowledge of that . If not, why not . We judge president s by the character of the people they put in place around them. The president will say, i didnt know anything about this, it didnt have anything to do with my campaign, fair enough, but you have to ask, why do you surround yourself with people that have clear issues in terms of honesty, in terms of legal behavior . As we thank our guests, a special note to say that we are honored to have a former u. S. Attorney as in effect our Special Correspondent inside that courtroom. Court starts early, and barbara
mcquade has pushed on through into the late night. Thank you so much to barbara mcquade, to eli honing, to peter baker, we appreciate it. Coming up, Steve Kornacki back at the big board. A deeper look at the lessons from the numbers out tonight when we come back. This is amazing. With moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, are you okay . Even when i was there, i never knew when my symptoms would keep us apart. So i talked to my doctor about humira. I learned humira can help get, and keep Uc Under Control when other medications havent worked well enough. And it helps people achieve control that lasts. So you can experience few or no symptoms. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. Before treatment, get tested for tb. Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. Be there for you, and them. Ask your gastroenterologist about humira. With humira, control is possible. The full value oft wyour new car . Youd be better off throwing your money right into the harbor. Im gonna regret that. With Liberty Mutual new Car Replacement well replace the full value of your car. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty
in its class according to alg. Better than crv. Better than rav4. Better than rogue. An adventure that starts with a Subaru Forester will always leave you smiling. Get 0 percent Apr Financing on the 2018 Subaru Forester. Its been another one of those tuesday election nights. And in its own way, its been epic and It Doesnt End tonight. But Steve Kornacki, back at the big board with some of the numbers out of ohio. Steve . Yeah, so 1,754. That is the overall lead that balderson, the republican, has here. And again, were saying too close to call. I do not want to be overdramatic here as i lay out one little wrinkle here that is sort of on top of what i said at the top of
this. Let me just explain quickly here. Again, the lead for balderson right now is 0. 9. The state law says 0. 5 or less is an automatic recount. Right now this would not be an automatic recount. Weve been telling you, and ill put this up here again, there are 3,435 provisional ballots to be counted across the district. This is not going to happen for another ten days. When theyre counted, we expect democrats will win them. We expect the margin will be potentially considerable, enough potentially to knock this number not down to zero or anywhere near zero but maybe under a thousand, maybe knock it in half, maybe knock it enough that the 0. 9 margin falls below 0. 5 and then the automatic recount is triggered. I say there is another wrinkle. I put this out there. Take this with a pinch of salt. The Secretary Of State is saying there are also 5,048 what they are Terming Uncounted Absentee Ballots. The question becomes what is an uncounted Absentee Ballot . We believe that a small, small sliver of this 5,048, were talking in the low hundreds, probably, would be military ballots. So the military ballots, you know, lets say 250, ballpark figure here, we expect those to break more republican than democratic, a small number. What about the rest . What are those . What we think, but we dont know, we are trying to get confirmation of, but the suspicion is that what this might reflect is, Absentee Ballots that were made out to people and that werent returned. So theyre then being counted in this category of uncounted Absentee Ballots. That has not been confirmed. That has not been told to us. We dont know. Its sitting there, its on their website. They havent explained fully what it means. If that did mean this early vote, Absentee Ballots that were cast early, we certainly saw oconnor do better, much better than balderson in the early vote. Theyre from all around, from each county thats in here. Again, even going by how we saw the early vote break, would that be enough to ghetto conner over balderson. Hard to see. Would it be enough to get it under. 5, thats a different story. No confirmation, no word. Were trying to track it down. Anybody who is curious and wants to look is going to see that number on the Secretary Of States site and the truth is, im not sure what that is. Sti suspect thats Absentee Ballots that werent returned. They havent confirmed that to us. Sooner or later youre talking about real numbers here. It will be interesting to find out. Steve, i cant thank you enough. It gets more and more interesting as the hour gets later. With just 90 days till the midterm elections, one former trump rival is now asking for the president s help. Is the houston chronicle
headline reads ted cruz asks trump to campaign for him in texas. At the this go on to explain during a Campaign Stop late monday, cruz said he has reached out to his form rival for the white house, lyin ted was the president s nickname to help him against bate orourke. With us tonight, charlie sykes, now Contributing Editor and podcast host for the weekly standard. Charlie, what are the rules in politics . You can brand an opponent lyin ted, a nickname that still springs to mind along with low Energy Jeb Bush and little marco and then all things can be equalled up if you have a tough race back home in texas . Yeah, apparently. Who knew that ted cruz was quite this elastic . Its not just lying ted. This was a campaign in which
donald trump made fun of ted cruzs wifes likes, implied his dad had assassinated john f. Kennedy, his trolls at the national enquirerer spread rumors about his personal life. He got booed off the stage at the Republican National convention when he suggested the people vote their conscience. But you know in, politics, apparently its easy to fib and ted cruz has proven that he is willing to get in line with the trump administration. I mean, he is not just on the trump train, hes enthusiastically on the trump train. Charlie about tonight and what were witnessing and what Steve Kornackis been covering all night, what does tonight mean for you . Okay, let me give you three data points. I dont want to be misunderstood that whoever wins tonight matters less than trend that youre seeing. This is a district that the democrats won once since 1938. The last republican congressman
pat teberi won by 36 points. And there are 68 Republican House seats that are less republican than ohio 12. So yes, the republicans is can celebrate the fact that they may have eked out a victory but the trends here have to be incredibly trouble together republicans. You know, if youre adding double digit democratic numbers across the board, this is going to be a very, very, very tough election. You know, so donald trump can claim that he in fact might have tipped this election in the very last few days but this should not even be close. We should not know these guys can names, not spent five minutes talking about it. The only reason were talking about is what donald trump has done to theply landscape. I hate the way the politics business reduces people to just straight up demographic groups but im going to go ahead and quote this political veteran that i quoted earlier in the
broadcast. Someone i saw tonight on another network. If the democrats can do this well in a district 88 white, they can retake the house. Yeah, theres no question about it. If were really seeing a microcosm of the way in which the suburbs that had been traditionally reliably republican are now turning to the democrats. Were seeing how rural areas are becoming more republican. But again, if you see this pattern extended throughout the country, it is just theres no way that you can spin this as a good night for the democrats. The fact this took place in a state as crucial as ohio has got to be another one of those troubling omens i think. And john kasich, emerges from this. What do you think is in his future . Well, who knows. You know, as we sit here right now, its hard to imagine any successful republican primary challenge to donald trump unless
something really catastrophic happens. John kasich is about the only guy who appears to be expressing some interest. And you know, so its certainly possible that if republicans start looking around saying, is there an alternative to donald trump in our future, do we want donald trump to define the Republican Party going into the next decade, they might look to a john kasich. I think its a long shot. And the rest of the Summer Calendar you think been l be consumed with all things trump and russia investigation with sporadic interruptions for politics i guess . I think its that, and i expect that the rhetoric over immigration will get much more toxic. I think that the rhetoric will be much more divisive. I think the Rhetoric You Saw in the final few days in ohio is a pretty good indication of what republicans are going to try to
do between now and november and theyll see what works and what doesnt work. Obviously, the Immigration Card is going to be something theyll be pounding away on. Charlie sykes, all a pleasure to have you on. Thank you for reacting to the news weve been covering late tonight. Really appreciate it. For those just joining us, our Decision Deck has put it this way. The race weve been covering in ohio tonight, too close to call. We will not be calling this race tonight. And that goes especially to all the reasons Steve Kornacki has been laying out for us. We have another hour of special live coverage to come. For now, well take a break. I can do more to lower my a1c. And i can do it with whats already within me. Because my body can still make its own insulin. And onceweekly Trulicity Activates my body to release it. Trulicity is not insulin. It comes in a onceweekly, truly easytouse pen. It works 24 7. Trulicity is an injection to improve blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes when used with diet and exercise. Dont use it as the first medicine to treat diabetes or if you have Type 1 Diabetes or diabetic ketoacidosis. Dont take trulicity if you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer, youre allergic to trulicity, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Stop trulicity and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of a serious allergic reaction, a lump or swelling in your neck, or severe stomach pain. Serious side effects may include pancreatitis. Taking trulicity with a sulfonylurea or insulin increases your low blood sugar risk. Common side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal pain, and decreased appetite. These can lead to dehydration, which may worsen kidney problems. I choose onceweekly trulicity to activate my within. If you need help lowering your a1c, ask your doctor about onceweekly trulicity. You mighyour joints. Ng for your heart. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in Clinical Trials to improve shortterm memory. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Well, esurance makes it simple and affordable. In fact, drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of 412. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance. An allstate company. Click or call. Paying too much for insurance that isnt the right fit . Well, esurance makes finding the right coverage easy. In fact, drivers who switched from geico to esurance saved an average of 412. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance. An allstate company. Click or call. Esurance. An allstate company. With the new Chase Ink Business unlimited card i get unlimited 1. 5 cash back. Its so simple, i dont even have to think about it. So i think about mouthfeel. I dont think about the ink card. I think about nitrogen ice cream in supermarkets all over the world. I think about the details. Fine, i obsess over the details. Think about every part of your business except the one part that works without a thought your ink card. Introducing Chase Ink Business unlimited with unlimited 1. 5 cash back on every purchase. Chase for business. Make more of whats yours
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