Nothing like hearing that music on the actual election itself. Good evening, im chuck todd here on nbc news, election headquarters here at 30 rock. Theres the ice rink, as you can see. And welcome to msnbc, special coverage of the 2018 midterms, the mini president ial. Youve got a front row seat to history and to the. First National Test of the Trump Presidency at the polls, amid an increasingly volatile, partisan and unpredictable political environment. Its all about the voters tonight. Were less than two hours away from the first statewide poll closings in key races. Folks, were Just Moments Away from bringing you the first look at the nbc News National exit polls which should give us Important Information about the electorate, including their views of the president as they went to the poll. So buckle up, it will be historic. We just dont know why or how. Democrats are expecting to flip the house. And republicans hope to add maybe a seat or two to their senate majority. If they can get three, they can lock it in until 2022. Guess what . Anything seems to be possible tonight. We dont know which way the wind is truly blowing and how strong its going but were going to start seeing some clues very soon. In less than two hours, the last polls close in half a dozen states. Most critically virginia, kentucky and indiana. Virginia has a tough of con naries in the house coal mine if you will from every sim narrow from a blue tsunami to gop upset. Another bellwether is kentuckys sixth congressional district. If democrats win back the house when they have the majority, they usually have districts that look like this one and they have had this lexington district in the past. This is one trump won by 16 but democrats are saying, just because we dont miss this tonight, doesnt mean we dont win the house. Theyre nervous about mcgrath the last 48 hours. And it could be an indication how theyre faring in the 10 states trump won. Hard to call it a blue waive with joe donnelly. And watch where the polls close statewide at 7 30. Could be a clear sign if republicans come ashore in virginia, and if it did, it will be more vulnerable to win that race. And theres a Key Senate Race and marquee governor race thats become a proxy for 2020. And the First Official flip from republican to democrat i think may happen in south florida tonight. Polls also close in missouri at 8 00. Another Critical Senate seat, the democrats must hold. And then theres tennessee, and that senate race where democrats can win for the first time in a generation. Folks, our goto election guru said hes got a nagging feeling a biggerthanexpected democratic wave is building. If you look at the last 72 hours, there was a lot of evidence to support that. If thats the case, keep an actual close eye on texas, believe it or not, where beta orourke is the underdog, hoping to pick off ted cruz. And watch the senate, because if democrats pick off either one, thats a blue wave. On the other hand, after we still havent called the house for the democrats around 10 00 p. M. Eastern, thats another watch out moment. Because it could mean it was a much better nice for the president and the red team. As i said, buckle up. Voters are going to send a message to the president s tonight and were moments away from our first clues about what this message will be. Lets check it out with our panel. The National Political reporter from bloomberg nurz and peggy noonan, columnist at the the wall street journal, and the director for the Clinton Campaign and obama white house. Gentlemen, i will give you the first dibs on this. Weve been in this situation before, about 5 04 two years ago. A lot of confidence. Not triggering anything. I dont mean to do that at all. Rainy election day, chuck, in new york. Democrats are very caulky rig cocky right now. You think so . I think all democrats are anxious. Let me play for you nancy pelosi and you tell me whether this is anxious or cockiness. Take a listen. This is a woman who knows politics. Yes, i am. Let me just say why i feel confident we will win, its just a question of the size of victory. If democrats win the house today, are you confident you will be speaker . And does that hinge at all on the results of today . Im not going to answer any questions. Well talk tomorrow. But right now today every second is about winning this election, and thats whats important. I give her credit, being very smart there. Dont count your speaker chickens before they hatch, thats for sure. But thats a very confident democratic leader. That is a very confident democratic leader. And that woman knows politics and i believe that is not that is not bravado. That is true confidence. Paul ryan thinks it is too, by the way. And i think theres a common wisdom and consensus that oh, my gosh, if something goes, its going to be the house and it could blow big. And i think but i think democrats at large are anxious because theres so much understanding that you cant rely on polls. I think we have a secret hope nobody wants to voice that the blue wave can actually be bigger than expected but people are scared. And thats the thing, there was a concern right after 16, boy, did the trump voter not make it into likely voter screens . We go out of our way in the nbc news the wall street journal poll to do that, which may be why were in a more small conservative window of a sevenpoint likely voter model for instance. I do sense a lot of anxiety among democrats. I think theyre still traumatized from two years ago. He with saw the limitations of trying to model an electorate when theres a black swan event like President Trump. His being on the ballot created a different electorate. Him being in the white house i suppose will kree rate a different electorate. And the bellwether, kentucky six, very important of the blue wave. It leans nine points thanks to a Democrat Friendly year and mcgrath. They might be able to flip it. Even if they come within one or two points, it will look like a good year. And another race to keep a close eye on is virginias seventh district. Its the perfect indicator of the national mood. It was eric cantors old district. It might turn blue in the era of the resistance if abigail stcan pull that off. Theres a one of symbolism in that one district alone. Dave brat. The tea party. You can write a whole book on that district. Thats a good idea. This is a conservative republican attempting to survive as a member of congress in northern virginia, which feels great antipathy to donald trump. By the way, i think she would be struggling if marco rubio was president , in fairness to her. Thats a tough district. Any republican but especially now in this climate i think it demonstrates whether or not you can survive with certain accomplishments and standing for certain things. Thats the first one that House Republican operatives i talked to expect to follow. They believe theres theoretically a path to holding the house, if they lose any more stock. Theres some in new jersey to keep an eye on too, new jersey one, the democrat running against leonard lance. One thing to kentucky, and im with the dccc that you can lose kentucky and still win sure. But if youre picking up red in solidly blue states like new jersey, that tells you Something Different is happening because republicans used to be able to win there. And if they lose in jersey one, new jersey three, i think thats and mccarthy and lance are the two republicans are worried about losing. If you look at a scenario, they need to hold on to both of those two. Both of them. Believe it or not the president seemed to indicate maybe, just maybe, he has to recalibrate things after these midterms, maybe. Im curious what you think of these comments. This is the president earlier today with sinclair broadcasting. Is there anything as you look back at your first almost two years that you regret, that you wish on you, that you can just take back and redo . Well, there would be certain things. Im not sure i want to reveal all of them. I would say tone. I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel to a certain extent i have no choice but maybe i do. And maybe i could have been softer from that standpoint. That would be something i would say that ill be working on. What did you make of that . His tone actually may thats the suburban problem i think more than anything. Less policy, more tone. Its part of it but its interesting. He uses the word softer. First of all, the president is conceding something. He may have made a mistake along the way, which is very surprising. Stop the presses right now. Stop the presses. We dont see him do that very much. He should have been, quote, softer he says. But he feels he had to be, hes implying, strong. He thinks that if he goes forward with president ial decisions and a president ial style and a president ial stature that is more what were used to, it seems soft. Do you know what i mean . I dont think it seems soft. I think its just something people would love to see. Another thing about him, he may be coming to terms with the fact people say trump doesnt ever pay any price for the unusual way in which he proceeds through his presidency. That guy pays a price every day, and he may pay a big price tonight. When you havent gotten two years of prosperity and relative peace, no new wars, and he hasnt won over independents, and he hasnt embraced centrists and theyre not all with him, that is the price he pays constantly. By the way, thats the key to whether thats a wave tonight, its independent voters. Yes. That is in florida, everythings been dead even on the partisan scale but everybodys wondering, polls say independents will break towards the democrats in places like florida, maybe eight to ten points. Place like arizona could be 20. Depends what it is. Thats how a good night becomes a great night for democrats. The pollsters working on the democratic race wheres trump has been coming to states and also with him pushing on immigration and focusing on the caravan that its a really big turnoff to independents. And its interesting often when if a president hes fully thrown himself into this midterm, right . Its not like hes hands off at all. He said this midterm is about me. A lot of times you see when that happens, the democrat will run to the center or try to moderate their theyre views to appeal to Republican Voters, and you dont feel like no democratic candidate has modulated what theyve said because trump has come to their state. They dont seem to feel the need do that. Theyre just it is because hes not doing anything thats actually appealing to the independent voter. Can i confess im skeptical of those remarks for President Trump. If theres one thing hes not known for is pivoting to a softer tone and sticking to it. He will do it in fleeting moments but it usually lasts hours or a day or two. He is who he is. Hes gotten to where he is by being that person and hes not going to change. I think this election, the way it turns out, will be a referendum on him because he made it so. I hi his comment is just a signal that he understands hes paying a price now. It doesnt mean he will change his style. The two things that will juxtapose this election is whether health care will be the cause of a blue wave and whether immigration will be his red barrier, especially in the senate. Again, i know, a whole pile here, youre not supposed to open the gifts early. We agree we will wait until after the break, but let me ask you this, jim, on this issue of the first issue that House Democrats proposed, that has to be on preexisting conditions, doesnt it . If its not health care, what was the point of all of that spending . Right. I think it has to be on health care and they have to you know, congress has not been doing its job, its not been functioning for a very long time. So there is a lot of oversight that needs to be done. Theres legislative that needs to be done. I think the democrats have to go in and act ask if this is a functioning arm of our republican, and be very aggressive in coming forward with an agenda, even if you think the senate will not act on it, they need to model what that looks like for congress to do its job. The true health of our Democratic Institutions is at stake. Irony, lisa hill, the irony is if this goes the way the way it looks preelection, the remaining House Republicans are going to be trumpy. Theyre going to be the Freedom Caucus, it isnt going to be the moderates. Right, if the republicans get swept out of the house, the people that will lose their seats are the moderates and people that deal with the center and the Freedom Caucus will expand its share of the caucus. They will have more clout. The idea the republicans will move to the center if they lose the house is completely wrong. No, the president will be more aligned with the republicans who are left, and i think he will love having a Democratic House to tell you the truth. I understand the suffering part, but, boy, hes going to try to use them as a foil to set things up for 2020. I do think it. And tax returns is probably something hes not looking forward to if that happens. Anyway, jen, peggy, we have to go to break. I will open up the box. Steve kornackis going to bring christmas here in a second. Were just Getting Started with the special Election Night edition of mpt daily. Just remember the first wave is the first wave. Steve kornackis big board. We will get the first look at what voters and key states are saying about the president and two Political Parties next. Welcome back. Look, steve and i have opened our christmas gifts. Were going to technologically figure it out in a few minutes but we have the first round of National Exit poll data. Of course, these numbers wont tell us definitive votes on whos winning where but they shed lights on what voters were thinking when they went to the polls and what they were thinking when they cast the ballots. My pal steve core nakornackis. So many numbers. We crashed the people. Theyre working their tail off. Lets get to the big one here, president ial job rating is at 46 , 46 is at the danger zone. Republican pollster speculated maybe it will go up a point or two and become a competitive night. The National Exit poll shows 44, 2 points lower. So 44 approval, 54 disapproval. And also when you break it down, strongly disapprove sits at 47 . Lets put this in a little perspective. I believe 1996 bill clinton had an 84 job rating and in 2010 barack obama had a 47 job rating. This would put him below both of them, and im thinking approximately 50 and 60seat loss respectively. I think republicans this year, and this is rough, the relation between the Approval Rating and exact number of seats but i think republicans throughout the year were thinking get it to at least 45, in an ideal world 46, 47, and then youre in fighting chance territory. 44, i will put it this way, 44 is a touch lower, a couple touches lower they were talking about this year. Although it is a little higher than it was around labor day. But its not in the zone i think they were hoping it would be today. Heres another thing, the electorate, the makeup of the electorate ethnically. This is a very familiar electorate to me. It was the president ial electorate in 2008, that was 72 white and 28 nonwhite. That is what this electorate is, which would make it the least wide midterm electorate i think ever. And thats fascinating too. Because a president ial year with the first africanamerican candidate nominee in president ial history in a midterm election, thats one of the trends we have been talking about, are democrats going to be able to bring that out . Another thing on the National Exit poll that jumped out at me the favorable ratings for the two big parties. 50 favorable, 46 unfavorable. In the Republican Party, 43 favorable, 54 unfavorable. Plus four for the democrats. Minus 11 for the republicans. And that is sometimes its good to be the Opposition Party, isnt it . You can function as multiple things to multiple people. You can be sometimes just the protest vehicle. You can be not the governing party, not the ruling party. Sometimes if youre the Opposition Party and control nothing, that could be good enough. All right. We will go through states and job ratings. Georgia, trump job, 51 approve, 47 disapprove. Boy, thats talk about right down the middle. That tells us this georgia governors race is going to be close. And the wild card in georgia, of course, 50 runoff threshold there too. In this case whats interesting here according to the exit poll, Stacey Abrams is winning a larger share of the disapprove than brian kemp is winning of the trump approve. Just a little tea leave there as we move on. Lets move to missouri. The trump job rating, ready for this one what is it . 50 approve, 49 okay. Why do i have a feeling you and i lr talking a lot about which counties have not yet reported in the senate race . Its funny, missouri was looking like the perfect thing to a perfect tie in the polling to all of the senate races out there. Our final poll had a slight edge to clear mccaskill. Missouri is one of the states where the democratic vote is clustered in very few counties. The rest of the state is so yoef overwhelming republican. I have one more to surprise people, the state of florida. Trump job rating, 51 approve, 48 disapprove. Much higher than we have seen in any other from poll. That is surprising and youve got the republican candidate for governor there who has tethered himself to trump more closely than most other candidates out there this year. To see trump at 51 there, at least right now at 5 00, remember these numbers can change as the night goes along. But that would be if youre a republican in florida, those make you feel like okay, maybe its not a total the final polls have not been looking great for republicans. Steve, we will reboot. Well get this going. But were having a good