costume this year. here she is all but declaring victory. >> we will win. we will win. we will win. >> please don't say that. do you want to say that on hillary's fireworks barge that she cancelled? please, please, please don't say that. >> we will own. we own the ground. >> and how long the curtains that you're measuring right now. >> we're not measuring, we're just walking precincts. if everyone votes, we'll have even a bigger victory. >> folks, in the past week we have seen some signs of a swing in momentum favoring the democrats. so what is going on? are these numbers a trick, as colbert cautioned, or are they a treat? the president's approval rating is falling. it's down four points. right now the national conversation has been jolted by political acts of violence and threats of vie leolence and the president sets a tone of pugilism and anger, especially on immigration. so many battlegrounds touch suburban areas where the president has never been that popular. in fact, we've just expanded our house battleground map and it includes a whopping 100 plus competitive house districts. up to 93 of them held by republicans, just 13 by the democrats. folks, if you love in other words on halloween, stick around because we're going to have more on those numbers and nerd out later in the show. moving to the senate, hot off the presses right now in the key indiana senate race, we've got the incumbent with a very narrow lead in a three-way race. and although his campaign did have a few stumbles in the debate last night, we're going to get to that, democrats must hold that seat if they have any hope of pulling off a stunner and actually winning control of the senate. and they're going to have to pick off a state like arizona as well, which is another bit of good news this week. our latest poll has the democrat opening a three-point contest. there are a number of reasons democrats need to be cautious and worry about that fireworks barge. the senate maps remain extremely tough for them. they have to run the table and win some of the reddest states in america in order to win back control. north dakota, tennessee, texas, has to come through. and they aren't a lock in the house either where they do need just 23 seeds to take back control out of those 93 that they put on the target list. but millenial voters, what if they don't show up? trump-loving seniors, they could show up. and latino turnout is still something of a wild card. so folks, to paraphrase the great vin scully, in a political environment that has so improbable, the impossible has happened before. will it happen again in six days or not? i'm joined by tonight's panel, alexi mccammon, michael steel. it seems like all of us morning newsletter types had the same read this morning. look, all of us have sources that have said something is happening on the ground, you can feel the ground shifting. it's moving towards the democrats. the question is, is it by a lot or a little? >> in the house it seems like it would be a lot, but i mean i'm not in the numbers guessing game. the one thing that is clear that you alluded to is that officials on both sides of the aisle are saying one thing is clear and nancy pelosi said this, the house is going to flip to democrats and the senate is going to remain in republican control with them probably gaining seats, in north dakota, tennessee. there's a new poll out with marsha blackburn ahead. indiana. and the one thing that's interesting is how president trump and vice president pence and i reported on this today and earlier this week are doing double duty in these crucial senate states and sort of ignoring or paying little attention to the house. >> they're no longer campaigning on the house at all. we're going to do something on the schedule later with you guys, steve and michael, but it does seem as if they know don't send the president to these house districts. >> yeah, a lot of times midterm elections are base elections but in this case it seems to be the nonbase of both parties that will be the swing vote. you've got the suburbs coming into play, new numbers tonight where you're seeing the democr advantage that democrats seemed to have six or eight weeks ago pre-cavanaugh which evaporated for a period of time seems to be returning. it's like the tide went out and the tide is coming back in. and it could be even bigger than the tide was previously because of all the reasons that we've seen this week. >> michael, i would sort of argue the odd thing here, and i'm guessing you will sort of agree with this, is that the president's closing message isn't helping republicans right now. he tweeted the following today. melania and i were treated very nicely yesterday in pittsburgh. we were treated so warmly. small protesters not seen by us. staged far away. the fake news story were disgraceful. this the first tweet with mourning people in pittsburgh. >> i have not been impressed today particularly about the president's consistency when it comes to the most effective closing message for republicans. the immigration issue you can see. if you argue this is a matter of intensity on both sides, democratic intensity is hatred for the president. we need to stimulate the republican intensity. talking about the board and caravans. he's been put on the back foot because the response to these events of the past week. his pugilistic instincts are at war with coming into the midterms. >> i'm fascinated about how he'll sound in ft. myers tonight. >> you can see the transition happen when he gets on that stage. it's a performance, and he knows that's what's carried him in 2016, that's what's carrying him and i guess senate republican candidates. >> maybe. >> in 2018 maybe. but the challenge that we're seeing with his rhetoric is when you look at people like mike kauffman in colorado or tom mcarthur in new jersey, they have both cut ads in which they are being touted for helping one family's adopted daughter not be deported under president trump. that is wild. >> they're running on pre-existing conditions, protecting parts of the aca that republicans are trying to overturn. >> mcarthur may have got elected campaigning again. >> what donald trump is doing in these red, red states is ginning up the base. he's doing the purple states as well. >> we're seeing republicans in states secretary clinton won in the presidential race, curbelo, with really solid leads going into this last week so it's clear there are republican candidates who have forged their own identity and have the ability to win without the president. >> i checked with a republican pollster today who said the lesson from this election is going to be when you see who wins and who loses, those that spent essentially a year worrying about their perception with suburban voters will figure out a way to survive, and those that worried about the trump base because they were weren't with them will pay the price. >> curbelo is doing everything he can to distance himself from the president. even most recently saying he would threaten to vote against his new trade deal with canada and mexico if it wasn't protecting specialty farms in florida. >> that's why we see this tale of two midterms. the president and vice president campaigning in red states trying to beat these red state senate democrats, while house republicans are fighting their own fight in the suburbs. >> steve mcmahon, there is a -- i think all of us are wondering are voters going to send a message due to the tone? my canary in the coal mine is tennessee senate. this is one of the more unique findings we have. let me put up the top lines. we've got marsha blackburn up five, but take a look at their personal ratings. there's no other race like this. his personal ratings are much higher than her personal ratings. not by a little bit, that happens every once in a while. his net positive image is 13 points. her image is actually minus 1. it's technically under water. she's always been a little bit of a polarizing figure, but if that slice of skeptical trump voter, the hold your nose trump voter decides they don't like the tone, this about the one race and one candidate that i think is prepared to take advantage of it. >> that tide that receded and is coming back in, for a time it looked like it was coming back for governor bredesen as well. one of the things we saw in 2016 is your polling is really only as good as your turnout models. they might not be reflected in the polls. women are coming out and that's going to help phil bredesen. >> president trump is there no matter what. meaning there is -- it's not quite a free vote against him, but there was -- if you voted for hillary clinton, you were never going to get a conservative judge to repolice anton iin scalia. >> there was at least the chance of something. >> this -- you cannot sit this one out and trump will still be there. it is not as urgent. >> trump bedevilled by house democratic investigations -- >> do you think voters get that? >> i think they do. i think they look at these democratic candidates, a much more radical crop than we had the last time they took the majority in 2006, and they see a future that is investigations, impeachment and chaos thwarting the progress they think that president trump has made in the economy and other issues. >> look at the ad he tweeted today. jobs, not mobs. it was the economy for the first half, the second half was riots. >> just because he says it doesn't mean it's breaking through. is this sticking? >> if you look at the polling data it doesn't seem to be sticking but michael raises a good point. the victory dances we saw in 2016 might be a little premature. secondly, this whole notion of talking about impeachment, which some democrats have foolishly done, or these investigations, that's not what people are voting for. they're voting for health care reform, things that matter in their lives, not points to be scored in washington. >> i think if you're voting for a candidate based on issues and you know that one candidate will go back to ron desantis is very much like trump and the other has a policy platform with health care, the economy, immigration, gun control, you know what you're voting for and you also know what you're voting against. >> desantis, he has a unique issue in that he never figured how to redefine himself out side of trump. i think he is in a special box. >> i keep going back to steve's point. everyone thinks that the house is done. if we were here two years ago, six days out, we would be talking about hillary clinton's cabinet picks and the size of her majority. >> we were. >> we were talking about, well, there's only one path, it's through the midwest and i don't see how -- >> elderly whites maybe. >> we were right about the midwest. >> speaking of blame game, because that will happen at some point, on the left or the right, the president seemed to start it today. somebody you once worked for. paul ryan should be focusing on holding the majority rather than giving his opinions on birth right citizenship, something he knows nothing about. our new republican majority will work on this, closing the immigration loopholes and securing our border. michael steel, i have a feeling i know who the president is going to blame if the house flips. >> the president has asked for credit. he said my name is on the ballot. donald j. trump is on the ballot. you break it, you bought it. if the house doesn't stay republican, it will be donald trump's fault. pure and simple. every campaign official has done everything they can. >> he's dying to go back after ryan. this is proof that -- >> deja vu. >> he's never liked paul ryan and found a reason to go after him. >> he's an easy target. trump has already said he's not to blame if republicans lose the house. the facts are there. paul ryan has been out campaigning for house republican candidates and trying to help them and fund raise for them. >> he's raised tens of millions of dollars. he is still busting his butt for every single republican candidate. >> and what if a democrat wins his seat? >> that's going to be a great night for democrats. >> if they win the first district in wisconsin. >> as a democrat, i'm much more comfortable with paul ryan interpreting the constitution of the united states than donald j. trump. >> this -- again, birthright citizenship, it seems as if every republican running for office goes, wait, what? first it was the tax cut. is there any communication that goes between the white house political shop and the rest of the campaign? >> i think the question is whether there's any communication between anyone in the white house and the president. >> i buy that. >> i blame no one but the president himself either inventing a tax cut or seriously messing up the details of the one that's actually on the table for these bizarre immigration attacks. this is the president and the president alone, and he alone will bear responsibility if we lose the house. >> i was told today he was going to hold a big speech at the border wall in mcallen, texas, on sunday and cancelled it. >> he was supposed to do a big speech on immigration yesterday. >> this one was going to be at the border wall on sunday. >> he is desperate to do one more big immigration speech. a rally will be where he does it, isn't it? guys, stick around. up ahead, we'll dive into the sometimes frightening world of social media and its role in radicalizing its politics. plus, what's still funny in these trying times? my conversation with the host of "the daily show" trevor noah, straight ahead. the fact is, there are over ninety-six hundred roads named "park" in the u.s. it's america's most popular street name. but allstate agents know that's where the similarity stops. if you're on park street in reno, nevada, the high winds of the washoe zephyr could damage your siding. and that's very different than living on 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(vo) ask your diabetes care specialist about tresiba®. welcome back. in the spirit of halloween, has social media become a monster no one can control? in the last week our country has been horrified by a series of bombs sent to prominent democrats and an attack at a pittsburgh synagogue. the suspects in both incidents were radicalized on social media. so is social media to blame for the attacks? no. but consider this. nbc news posted this report, that researchers are warning of a rise in attacks on jewish people on social media.n about shooting in a pittsburgh synagogue. it's not just content that's sounding alarms, it's even deceptive ads and deception about who's paying for them. vice news posed as all 100 senators to run ads on facebook, and facebook approved all of them. vice's investigation found that the social media giant's paid for by disclosure you see on top of every ad can be easily manipulated. fake ads, fake buyers, hate-filled conspiracies is all there to make money for facebook and twitter. with me now, jonathan albright, research director at the tow center for journalist at columbia university. his warning about anti-semitic material posted on instagram was included in that nbc report. jonathan, it's spooky, to borrow a halloween word. the report goes out, we're interviewing about it and there it is. there's the connective tissue. >> i didn't know it was one minute. that's news to me. i knew it was about half an hour or roughly half an hour before that went out and the timing is just -- is uncanny on that. >> you know, it's interesting, i want to start with sort of soros and the fact that george soros mythology, i don't know what else to call it, but this mythology on the right. social media, it started really in about 2004, because george soros was a funder of a big liberal group. he is in charge of everything if you go on the internet. you've done a lot of study on this. >> yeah. so i think that when you have characters that are involved politically and run, you know, $18 billion foundations across the world, i think that it gives you a good back story and it gives you a lot of fuel to build out other conspiracies that are politically related and especially ones that might influence or tend to affect voting in an election or to start a controversy like the one we've seen with the soros-funded caravan. >> here's what i don't understand. you're finding this stuff pretty easy. we have found this stuff pretty easy. i saw another journalist say he did a few key word searches and found all of these threats. why do the social media companies pretend they're paralyzed on all of this? >> i think it's -- to be fair to them, i think the challenge is enormous. a lot of the detection of these types of things is done through automated means. >> which is the problem. >> you just can't hire a million people. >> so a.i. doesn't work in this instance. >> well, it works to a point, and they also rely on community flagging, so people -- users flagging content that they find offensive. >> like when people file a complaint to twitter to say a person name cesar sayoc is harassing them and threatening their lives? the system didn't work here badly. >> i think the detection system for that is a good example of it not working. so it's a challenge. and i think that it's not just social media. i mean not to take it outside of social media, but these things travel between all different channels. they jump from social media, they jump into the mainstream media. so it's a very big problem to try to contain in terms of damage control or collateral damage, and then you have certain leaders also pig piggybacking on these other messages which causes further controversy. >> i don't think kara swisher would have thought she would have written this. social media platforms and facebook add twitter are as guilty of this as gab is, are designed so the awful travels twice as fast as the good and operating with sloppy disregard of the consequences of that awful speech, leading to disasters that they then have to clean up after. the title was i thought the web would stop hate, not spread it faster. >> it gives it legitimacy and it gives it attention and that leaves the exposure of terms. even during fact checks and correcting this misinformation or the disinformation, people tend to remember the nature of the key words or the charged key words that lead to some of the actions that people have taken into their own hands. so they tend to remember soros and funding and caravan. they don't remember that this fact check says it disproves that. >> i had a voter -- i was talking to a voter last week who said i heard something of a massachusetts senator and soros and the caravan, and i'm thinking where? they sort of connected three things in their head. that's what they believed. >> absolutely. so the last thing that cesar sayoc had on one of his public facebook pages, like the last of his public posts, was a hillary clinton message. and the most recent tweet that he had on one of his -- he had multiple twitter accounts was a george soros meme. so i think that the prevalence, just the nature of these things being all over people who have taken kind of vigilante action and taken things into their own hands and caused quite a bit of harm to other people shows that there is a relationship between content posted on social media, often going through mainstream sources and broadcasts, so i think that there's a relationship that we need to understand a little bit more and it does -- and it is seeded and does start on social media, but we need to understand the larger nature of the ecosystem -- >> it goes from social media to talk radio to fox primetime. it's not a hard direct line. >> but it takes thinking more holistically and takes thinking about putting the larger pieces together rather than looking at just twitter or just facebook or just instagram. >> what should professional journalists be doing here? this is the hard part here. we struggle with this. on one hand soros is used in political advertising, but when you cover one of these attacks, you also are helping to spread misinformation about somebody. >> absolutely. so this gets into just the idea of being cautious and being cognizant to not re-promote and give it more attention. sometimes it's technical things. don't post links to sites like info wars or don't post links because it will attribution from your domain. >> this is a case where sunshine doesn't work and may back fire on you. >> absolutely. so i think there needs to be a new process in journalism to tackle these issues to not amplify things more than they already are by trying to correct or trying to inform, which is really the key mission of journalism. >> and obviously they're the actual elected officials who need to tone it down. >> yes. >> that's something you and i can't do anything about. >> yes. >> thanks for coming on, sharing your expertise. up ahead, my conversation with "the daily show's" trevor noah. plus the bitter divide over something sweet. plaque psoriasis can be relentless. tremfya® is for adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. with tremfya®, you can get clearer. and stay clearer. in fact, most patients who saw 90% clearer skin at 28 weeks stayed clearer through 48 weeks. tremfya® works better than humira® at providing clearer skin, and more patients were symptom free with tremfya®. tremfya® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections. before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. tell your doctor if you have an infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. before starting tremfya® tell your doctor if you plan to or have recently received a vaccine. ask your doctor about tremfya®. tremfya®. because you deserve to stay clearer. janssen wants to help you explore cost support options. but prevagen helps your brain with an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. (door bell rings) it's ohey. this is amazing. with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, are you okay? even when i was there, i never knew when my symptoms would keep us apart. so i talked to my doctor about humira. i learned humira can help get, and keep uc under control when other medications haven't worked well enough. and it helps people achieve control that lasts. so you can experience few or no symptoms. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. be there for you, and them. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, control is possible. welcome back. tonight i'm obsessed with why we can't have nice things, specifically bite-sized, waxy, artificially flavored sugary things. once again, it's october 31st, halloween. once again, people are losing their minds over candy corn. this year, of course, it's getting political. one man tweets candy corn is delicious and a symbol of american exceptionalism. fight me. but another writes we often talk about dark money in politics, but we need to find the monsters responsible for continuing to fund big candy corn in this country. so here we are, america, locked in a bitter debate about candy corn. i mean candy corn. you know it even looks political. those stark impenetrable socioeconomic dividing lines. look how it tapers at the top to the elitist 1%. are we even sure that's the top? it's very likely the bottom. i mean if it's candy corn, wouldn't the part that looks like corn, yellow, be the top? don't discuss, we sucked up 30 minutes of a staff meeting fighting about this. halloween can be so political at times with costumes and decorations, but can't we all just agree to disagree on this? they say we're a melting pot and that's what truly makes america great. as long as that pot isn't being used to melt candy corn. frankly, what the heck are we making this horrible sugary waxy treat for anyway? up next, trevor noah. that's been building them for 115 years, get a ford. if you want a car with driver-assist technology, get a ford. if you want waze and amazon alexa compatibility, get a ford. if you want a car that doesn't have any of that, get anything... but a ford. otherwise, you're gonna want a ford. ♪ man: this is really about the country, about patriotism, and about right and wrong. there is a reason that we're here tonight, all of us, and that there is a remedy. is it people in this room and across this country? please vote. vo: need to impeach is responsible for the content of this advertising. first, it continues to pay paramedics while we're on break. second, it ensures the closest ambulance can respond if you call 9-1-1. vote yes on 11. "look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein proposition 11 "proposition 11 is a vote to protect patient safety." it ensures the closest ambulance remains on-call during paid breaks "so that they can respond immediately when needed." vote yes on 11. welcome back. it's hard to avoid hearing about president trump when you turn on the news or late night comedy, so how can comedian crack jokes when the news is dom tainated y bipartisb by partisan news. >> there's a lot of ways to criticize someone without going that far. try poopyhead. the press is a poopyhead. but enemy of the people? come on, man. even the worst yelp review in the world would never use that phrase. they would never be like these empanadas are the enemy of the people! two stars. >> poo-poo head. i would accept that. i started by asking him does he feel like he's become defined by president trump. >> i don't think i'm defined by donald trump. i think in many ways, "the daily show" has always been influenced by whoever is in power at the time. i mean when, you know, jon stewart was running the show, george bush and the war in iraq was a defining characteristic of "the daily show." it's what thrust the show into prominence and george bush became a character in jon's life and "the daily show" became a character as it lives with george bush and iraq and wmds, et cetera. so any show that is built around satire is going to have a relationship with whoever is in power. and so with us it was good-bye obama, hello donald trump. so it's only inevitable that that's going to be your journey. >> have you always been current events driven? >> i think so. when i came from south africa, people asked me if i was political. the answer was no. i didn't realize that base level in south africa is what americans would consider ultra political. i came from a country where you didn't have an option to be political. >> one of the more jarring memoirs in your book -- >> born a crime. >> yes, so you're innately, your survival becomes political. >> right. >> in that sense. >> right. so coming into america, i genuinely did not think i was as political as i was then perceived to be. and i think in many ways, trump has sort of course corrected people a little bit in the right direction. you know, the effect of donald trump has been that i've seen a lot of young people now engaging in politics in a way they never did before, and now conversations in a restaurant, i will hear people speaking about the president said this and trump said that and did you see the saudi arabian story and that's what people should be doing. >> it's interesting, when i have visited younger democracies, south africa in particular because it's still new. only two or three generations old at best. >> still has that new car smell. >> there is this serious -- it is more widespread seriousness about you take your citizenship seriously. wow, we take our citizenship for granted until donald trump won. >> right. i think donald trump has shaken people up. that's what he said that he would do so in that way he delivered. >> is it possible the country is more engaged, would be less engaged if hillary clinton were president? >> i think so. >> that's an odd unintended consequence, isn't it? >> i think so. for many years it seemed like americans for the most part were on auto pilot. with obama came a certain sense of he knows what he's doingness. >> i don't have to back seat drive, i can look away. >> if it were hillary, i remember thinking of "the daily show" and wondering how would we do hillary. my goal was to make it more global. donald trump has made "the daily show" more global than i could have imagined because his finger is in every single story all over the world. if you want to talk about france and macron, you have to talk about him. if you want to talk japan and china, you have to bring it in. norway, haiti, africa, there's always a story that involves donald trump. so it's given "the daily show" to speak about the world and how it pertains to america and vice versa. >> we were talking earlier about how i'm in the middle of recalibrating assessing a presidenti presidential candidate and what makes them a success. can they win the middle. it seems like comedians for a generation thought that, particularly in late night, whether jay leno, johnny carson, even david letterman who thought i've always got to make the common middle laugh. >> right, right. >> you and all of your competitors, colleagues, however you want to refer to late night, there is no -- there are bright lines now. >> i don't think that that's true per se. i don't think that it's bright lines that have separated people. i think that comedy, the best comedy is informed by the truth. you know, and so if you look at everybody from richard pryor all the way through to chris rock and all the great comedians, the comedy was always informed by the truth. >> especially the edge. >> exactly. so if you are looking at the truth of the situation, what are you going to do? which democrat are you going to speak about when they have no power? who are you skewering? >> why do conservatives not have as much success. i say go get a show and they get a show and it doesn't work. >> innately you have to find yourself ridiculous as well. i tell people this all the time. if you watched my show when we were running the campaign, i remember when hillary made the comments about coal. we're going to shut down coal. and i remember that day we did a whole show about that because we were like this is ridiculous, what are you saying? we could see the mistake. we could see the issue in the messaging. and i think maybe with a lot of conser conservative shows, they're not particularly good at laughing at themselves. they're not particularly good at saying, okay, donald, you shouldn't have said that, mr. president. that wasn't the right way to go. whereas i'm not afraid to say that. right now we live in a space of who is where. there are whispers of who may be running and how. but other than an elizabeth warren story of the dna test coming out, there's nothing much happening in that vein right now. >> my thanks to trevor noah. by the way, be sure to not miss his special on netflix. trevor noah, son of patricia. it's debuting november 20th on netflix. the battle on the house heats up. we're heading over to the big board. the map has gotten bigger. there it is, the music that's waking me up in a better and better mood all the time because election season is here. welcome back. time for "meet the midterms" and what is now an even bigger list of house races that we're going to be watching closely this tuesday night. what do i mean? check this out. working with our friends at the cook political report, we now have a list of a whopping 106 competitive house races on our potential flip races. 93 held by republicans, 13 by democrats. but with just one week to go, we've already added 25 races to our potentially vulnerable list overall. 18 on the republican side, 7 on the dem side. there's some reasons why we're seeing this battleground start to expand. let me start with michigan. the 6 and 7th districts there we've added to this list. with the republican gubernatorial nominee cancelling all ads in michigan this week except in the detroit area with one week to go, the party seems to be conceding defeat at the top of the ticket. the flint water crisis has just been devastating to the republican party statewide. so what has that done? it's a trickledown effect. it means two republican incumbents in michigan are vulnerable. there are three on the list. now it's up to five, all thanks to the top of the ticket debacle. we've also added two of the at-large districts. when we say large, the geographically largest. alaska, montana. in good democratic years, both of these races do come into play late. why? both states have libertarian streaks and both of these races have become competitive because the libertarian conservative not so comfortable with the trump republican party era, if you will. so we're seeing some of that volatility with that group of voters which is why these races have gotten a little shaky for the republicans. the incumbents are physical guys, just something to think about there. and finally, let me take you to one we've added on the democratic side of the column. minnesota 7. why do we have this on the list? the republican party has had a tough time in a lot of states, but they have been doing pretty well in minnesota. certainly better in minnesota than any of the other midwestern states this year. that is why we've added this race. the competition at the top of the ticket has gotten better for the republicans. it's shoring up some of these house races and giving republicans a handful of opportunities in the land of 10,000 lakes. it's a big list. you can see the rest of it at first read. go find it, nbcnews.com, and we'll be right back. that chevy won a j.d.power dependability award for its midsize car-the chevy malibu. i forgot. chevy also won a j.d. power dependability award for its light-duty truck the chevy silverado. oh, and since the chevy equinox and traverse also won chevy is the only brand to earn the j.d. power dependability award across cars, trucks and suvs-three years in a row. phew. third time's the charm... replace one meal or snack a day with glucerna... made with carbsteady to help manage blood sugar... ...and end the day with a smile. glucerna®. everyday progress. glucerna®. yeah, i've had some prettyeer. prestigious jobs over the years. news producer, executive transport manager, and a beverage distribution supervisor. now i'm a director at a security software firm. wow, you've been at it a long time. thing is, i like working. what if my retirement plan is i don't want to retire? then let's not create a retirement plan. let's create a plan for what's next. i like that. get a plan that's right for you. td ameritrade. ♪ why are you attacking paul ryan? >> first right citizenship is a very, very important subject. in my opinion it's much less complex than you think. >> are you going to blame paul ryan if republicans don't hold the house? >> no, i'm not going to blame anybody. >> the president just leaving on the white house south lawn. it's a conversation we were just having about paul ryan. let me show you the president's final schedule here until election day. going to ft. myers today. pretty much the only place that doesn't need republicans fired up in the state of florida, for what it's worth. then we go to columbia, missouri, the reddist area in a red state. friday it's huntington, west virginia and indianapolis. sunday is macon, georgia, and chattanooga, tennessee. monday, cleveland, ohio, ft. wayne, indiana, and rush limbaugh's hometown of cape girardeau of missouri. if you love the house, you must love this travel schedule. >> i don't see a single competitive house race. >> if we're talking about appealing to college-educated female suburban voters, we don't need him there. on the other hand, red state democrats are probably terrified by that travel map. >> let me ask you this, isn't all politics national now? it's not like you can say something in a pensacola rally, alexi, and suddenly the rest of florida doesn't hear about it. >> that's the thing, everyone is tuned in. even if you don't live in florida, you're watching these rallies and picking up in the nuances in his rhetoric. >> you're watching the rallies and picking up on the nuances. that's your job. >> everyone is informed and likes being informed. maybe i'm just a nerd. you're right, all politics is national and that goes back to the earlier discussion of how house candidates are having to walk this tight line because they are only -- >> barack obama knew where he didn't help and he stayed away. >> that's exactly right. >> it didn't help in 10 or 14, but he in 10 of '14. >> michael is absolutely right about this. in a red state donald trump goes there and the crowds swooned. but they start yelling, lock her up, and they start doing things that encourage his worst instincts. so, it is a national election in that sense. everybody is going to see what he does in indiana. but the people in purple states and in purple districts and the suburban women you were just talking about aren't going to like it very much when the crowd starts screaming, lock her up. >> they haven't liked him this whole time. >> look at the numbers. >> rob portman comes to mind. a candidate who focused like a laser beam on his state, issues that mattered to his constituents and ran 20 points ahead of the president. candidates who have their own brand -- >> can they have their own brand when donald trump comes into the state and calls them up on the stage and does what donald trump does? that's the problem a lot of these guys have to deal with. >> i don't think anyone is going to vote against carlos curbelo because they saw a trump rally on tv. >> i do think gianforte, the reason that race got tighter is because the president showcasing him. and showcasing the body slam. literally, the one thing that almost cost him the original special election. >> you look at your hometown in miami. there is an open democratic seat that should -- it was a plus-20 seat for hillary. the democrats are still putting money into it. they can't put it away. i don't think that the republican candidate in that seat, a former television anchor on the spanish language network, is going to do worse because donald trump is in fort myer. >> one of the things i like to watch in the last week is who is going negative in the last week that's ahead. sometimes i've seen it tim kaine go negative. i'm thinkings what is that about? maybe house turnout, or jennifer wexton. ted cruz went negative. take a listen. >> beto o'rourke is more extreme than he wants you to know. not even nancy pelosi is open to abolishing i.c.e., but beto is. not even bernie sanders supports impeaching the president, but beto does. and not even elizabeth warren has suggested legalizing all narcotics, including heroin, but beto did. >> i get the message. it seems awfully late, steve mcmanus, somebody who has been a purveyor of tv ads. awfully late to do that ad. >> if you're 10 points ahead as ted cruz pretends to be, you don't run that ad. you look at turnout numbers and where they're coming in. oh, my god, houston, we have a problem. >> literally. houston is where the problem is. >> exactly right. >> the president came to houston and his numbers went down. >> i'm glad you mentioned early voting. in texas early voting is now 3.4 million, which is more than the total early vote in 2014. >> just remember -- >> that's nearly half the electorate. >> more money than god, and he's use ing it all in field. you can't spend that much money on television. he raised $32 million last quarter. >> i am curious how he's spending that. >> i don't think cruz is is seriously in danger. >> except for cruz. >> what did you make of that ad? >> i think it will help down ballot republicans. it will remind people of beto's record as opposed to the magazine ads of him will help house republicans. >> there is another phenomenon we're seeing in the past ten days. libertarian or independent candidates are getting talked into getting out for various reasons. today was montana. jon tester has always done well. the libertarian dropped out and endorsed the republican. you've had the independent governor of alaska drop out, endorse the democrat. an i understand penlt dropped out in oregon and endorsed the democrat. in maine we've had a similar situation. alexi, they saw the numbers in 2016 and -- >> there is a wake up call. it follows the trend we've been talking about the entire cycle. people in the middle feel like they don't have a home. and maybe candidates in the middle feel like they don't have a place to run. did you mention they all endorsed the democrat? >> not all. the libertarian in montana endorsed the republican. >> so a come of them. >> in different states that works in different ways. >> nobody wants to be jill stein. >> or pat buchanan. >> i think it goes to the stakes in this midterm, the unprecedented stakes in the mid ferm for voters on both sides. >> it's more than just about the 2018 midterm election. what happens on november 6 will have repercussions for years. >> you reported it, it's the governors. the governors and state houses and state legislative races are moving like a ground -- >> in maryland, it's one of the few ways they'll keep a republican governorship. in the midwest anyway. alexi, steve, michael, thank you. up next, a halloween scare for washington. i'm a musician about to embark on a concert tour. it's your job to get don to all his tour dates on time. it's good money. we need it. in a divided nation... in the deep south, there's gonna be problems. get your hands off him. now! you never win with violence, tony. his music broke barriers. where did you learn how to play like that? 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