Eager to deal their base energized after winning the bruising confirmation battle for Justice Brett kavanaugh. They are warning that democrats will try to impeach kavanaugh. They are painting democrats as a, quote, angry mob and playing up a Supreme Court justice as a supreme political spectacle. Kavanaugh has ignited the gone base and republicans are eager to fan those flames as long as this fire lasts. The mob would like to make itself perfectly clear, mr. President. If democrats retake congress, progressives expect them to use their full power to get kavanaugh off the bench. In their quest for power, the radical democrats have turn nd to an angry mob. Im glad those who tried to overturn t turn turn the rule o. And the president spoke to reporters again and repeat his claim about kavanaugh protestors being paid plofgs ls a professi. How do you keep your base energized now that they have the kavanaugh victory . That is a very good question. How do you keep your base energized now that you have the big cath vehickavanaugh victory . Just by winning. The energy i dont think it has ever been greater. Maybe 2016 where you remember the nurg was veenergy was very. Forces saying things that were evil, they were bad people. And now to the big question. What does it mean for the midterms . If you are a democrat, the last thing you want for is a poll showing that you are behind broke trump. But right now senator dean heller is leading the democratic nominee by two points among lightly vot likely voters. But highest we have had heller ever. 46 . And republicans arent being blown out when it comes to enthusiasm. 90 of democrats in democrats say midterms are very important. But a poll might spook democrats in other Battle Ground states. Republicans clearly view kavanaugh as the best thing politically to happen to them just 28 days from the midterm. But it is 28 days. There is a hurricaneing across florida. So perhaps there is a sugar high. Remember after the denver debate. Perhaps republicans are just coming home a little earlier than usual and perhaps they cant beat the headwinds of a Midterm Election like this one where there is nearly 40 openhouse seats. S about s about as ive sid, it might be nerve yver nervous un terms. We have this nevada poll that steam seems to add that republicans have at lease caug least caught in senate races. Sugar high or something consequential . That is one poll and one cal pain. Jackie rosen is a little underperforming. So not entirely surprising. It is hard to know. We have seen in our own polling that the generic ballot continues to be quite in the favor a of democrats. Search when it comes to the house. The senate was always going to be tough. That is a race dnl democrats we likely to win. But we are in a fraught environment. It is a month out. We have kavanaugh hangover. It could help republicans motivate their barks se, it cou motivate democrats a lot. But where i think you are right, we have to get off the kavanaugh churn and get back to something resembling stable. And to increase our insecurity when what we know, cnn is out with a poll mock likelik among likely voters. And that is a piece of evidence runs counter. And maybe they are an outlaird. We dont know. You mentioned october of 2016. October 7th, the access Hollywood Tape and everybody talking about trump dropping out. You have to be really careful. A month in politics in the fall is a lifetime. Every week is the equivalent of a month, several months back. That is how quickly things can change. What im looking for is charlie cooks numbers, tossup states, versus leec leasuccess lean dem lean republican. You have 15 races that lean democrats. So sthey need eight are more an they dont have them. The democrats need to get those races moved from tossup to lean democrat before they can feel secure about the house. And how important is this for the gop to keep this flame lit . I think it is everything. Because i dont think that anybody anticipated the blow back that kavanaugh would create by his testimony and what happened afterwards. And it was the first ray of light that republicans had seen and they were startled i think frankly startled by the enthusiasm kavanaugh generated. I think there was double counting going on, this is terrible for the gop, it will hurt the gop, it is really going to, you know, knock the stuffing out of them. But i think that that change had already happened. In other words, this flight ofu and 2018. I think the run base is a prolife, blpro gun. And when liberals went after kavanaugh, they decided to circle the wagons around him. And i think people were just overly enthusiastic that this was the death blow. How important do you think it is for democrats not take the bait . There will be activist base that will talk about that. I swrnhavent seen any serious candidate talking about that. People will push it online. But the whole issue of calling people a mob, democrats tried that in 10 20 in 2010 with the. All fake, it is really not there. And im guessing most proc d protestors are paid if they are got there for you. Hard to call mob if the nazis are not a mob, but democrats exercising their first amendments rights are a mob. But they are so disciplined. They are all in the same playbook. And they take the gaffes on the other side. So trump talking about the other side being evil. Remember, just a couple weeks ago when cory booker used the word, Brett Kavanaugh threw it in his face. And now the president is using it and nobody is noticing. Inpa think part of this is there are ideas that trigger the Republican Base just as they are ideas that trigger democrats. And the idea that there is some kind of a mob coming for kavanaugh works because it is precisely pushing that button that they need to push with the republicans. Because now were just getting down to the fact that we have four weeks before the election and if hard core republicans dont drag themselves over gloos get to t glass to get them to the poll, that tossup number is garbage. It will tilt toward democrats. 20, 30, 40 seats will tilt toward democrats. What does it say that they have where jumpi are jumping on it . This headline is impeach cath. Immigration wasnt working, we dont like talking about health care. The tax cut hasnt worked. Finally something that works. Okay. What if this only works for a week. It is a proxy for the de legitizatil deleg deleg de llede lla if you believe, you have to believe in kavanaugh. It is reminding you that trumps base have the power. I remember that we were speculating when trump was trying to make about himself. And now kavanaugh is easier to rally a guy like you who is not a big trump fan to say oh, yeah, wait a minute, you are going after kavanaugh. And the democrats didnt go in the breyer patch when it was the idea of 2ru6rtrump being impeached. Lets me play what nancy pelosi said. Take a listen. People care about what happens to them in their lives. Sthee t they see the cost of health care, a paycheck that doesnt go as far takes should. They doubt whether their voice counts for much because big special interests weighing in. She is probably right. Absolutely. And the frooutruth is it only t one undisciplined democrat or a partisan liberal to make some6 write some oped about impeachment. I think ultimately the four bikes is t 9 weeks is the problem. In trumps america, four bikes is weeks is four years. People will get bore and they will have to be Something Else let me bring up two events. Number one, the denver debate in 2012. Rm enth republican ennews ychl surthune. And access hollywood was the other way. Is that are we experiencing Something Like that . Or after the world clears will we have a better sense . A mid term a different than a president ial race. Fundamentals are baked in. We have even democratic enthusiasm outpace the republican edge nennews yachlte. But there is a new bloc voting by women . You have had ethnic groups. If you had an t ittaalian candi withdrawn, it at a tital i don would vote for that gcandidate. But the question is whether this year that might change. Women just want to vote for women. And there are a large piece that gets forgotten in these conversations. The gender gap and female surge in the Democrat Party is very real. It has been power everything since the election. But it is not a 100 . And i think ultimately republicans are betting on a bank shot that somehow they can get people to vote for a republican at the house level to send a message to democrats and it seem taos ha seem taos ha seems to have very little to do for someone who is do republicans pick up senate seats . Probably maybe one. Because of the structure. But it is still an unusual thing. 40 feels like i buy it at 20 to 30 that republicans could thin wi then win. Bruh w but 40 feels like there are coattails. And if somebody is really energized to vote say for a woman house candidate, they might be more likely to vote for the democratic candidate for senate. You are talking about a wave that will affect every race. Remember 2010, democrats lost 62 seats in obamas first midterm. Very unusual to haves the two single most unusual cycle of senators where democrats have had unusual good luck. The two single most unusual cycle of senators where democrats have had unusual good luck. And missouri, Claire Mccaskill probably shoochbts ul win. But she this is where the wave stuff gets weird. If there is a democratic search in t surge in the cities st. Louis and kansas city, voting for the house could save Claire Mccaskill in the senate. Without that, she would be a goner. Usually you would think it would be the senate race. And heidi heitkamp, not a business surge big surge in the suburbs. And she made a vote on principle and there are a lot of people in her home state who like people who are independent. So she has few weeks to turn this around. I wouldnt write her off. It is a small state. Everybody knows everybody. So i dont write montana off either. Up ahead, is President Trump looking beyond the midterms . If you sgrunyou judge by his sc travel, this is a 2020 week. Well explain. ll explain. [ dramatic music playing ] we need to fail down here so we dont fail up there. We got a bad fire. Theyre gone, neil. What are the chances this is the last time the boys are gonna see you . Do you think youre coming back . We have serious problems. [ dramatic music continues ] first man. Rated pg13. They wont hike your ratest foover one mistake. See, Liberty Mutual doesnt hold grudges. For drivers with accident forgiveness Liberty Mutual wont raise their rates because of their first accident. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty tech so you think this chip is nothing to worry about . Well at safelite, we know sooner or later every chip will crack. These friends were on a trip when their windshield got chipped. So they scheduled at safelite. Com. They didnt have to change their plans or worry about a thing. Ill see you all in a little bit. And i fixed it right away with a strong repair they can trust. Plus, with most insurance a safelite repair is no cost to you. Customer really . tech being there whenever you need us thats another safelite advantage. Singers safelite repair, safelite replace. music throughout President Trump is head to go iowa tonight for his latest Campaign Rally as part of his efforts to help republicans keep control of congress. After iowa, he is off to pennsylvania and ohio. But anyone of those states really where the Battle Ground is for the senate. And all of those are places where he won he won in on 2016. So rim rin pennsylvania, bob ca been leading by double digits. And same goes in ohio for Sherrod Browns reelection race against jim are a nas cirenacci. And vumptrump will need them al. It did strike me when you see him going to western iowa, yes, part of the third Congressional District there. He is going to ierie. Places that means more to him in 2020. Feels like this is testing the reelect week. This is a president who filed for reelection on the day he was inaugurated for the first term. Never seen nick lianything like. So his Reelection Campaign is running flat out. Even if the republicans hold the senate, President Trump is in troubling in some of these states. He has fallen considerably in approval and the midwest as a whole seems to be flipping in a midterm year. States that he carried are getting ready it appears to either elect Democratic Senators or democratic governors or both. And it is interesting, the one part of the quote, wave, that has gotten less attention. We made it our lead today. Sort of the big ten states that was hugely important to Barack Obamas election and reelection. And it is how he held off mitt romney and hugely important in durd Donald Trumps win. It appears to be tariffs. If you find an issue that people say they arent judging him yet, but you cant help but notice that as he threatened tariffs, republican numbers started eroding in those mid western particularly thing a ge ag grin agriculture ray mid western states. And lets not for to get that many of those mid western states as we know, they are the nice part of america. Im not going to disoig new york or california, but you dont get the time of day from there. Mid westerners may not react to some of the things that donald trump says on sdr. And this reminds us that 2016 was a choice. It wasnt simply that people decided to votes for donald trump in a vacuum. Many were voting against hillary clinton. Maybe you dispute the premise, but essentially takes twit is a pronged decision. Ive always said the biggest error was treating 20 on 16 16 when it was more of a referendum on her. And one of the other things that i thought 16 was the historical head wind. Hoi how long do you think that we are understatement the normal history . If there has ever been an abnormal presidency, were in it. And trump has violated so many of the rules of politics and so many of the norms of politics. That we hesitate to say, well, history shows us that x will happen, therefore it will happen under trump. But if you are saying a red wave aint going tootohappen, it is a question of how big the blue wave is. It could be a wave, but there will be a blue wave. When are you going to feel more comfortable to know the kavanaugh effect . And how sustaining it is. Probably about 9 30, 10 00 p. M. On Election Night but we have to have a week to settle this. And it is too soon. If i had to guess, id say both paces were spoktoke would by th but republicans were lags. People arent changes sides. Instead, this is the partys reaching people who are very likely to turn out if they are energized. What is it one of the as you noted, President Trump has sort of blown up norms. But nothing could blow it up more if we truly have a two america style election. Meaning democrats win 40 house seats and somehow republicans gain in the senate. It is a geographic anomaly. But i have to tell you, i am struggling to figure out how they would pick up 40 house seats and not at least be a net neutral in senate. It is stuff tough until i lo the map. So i can see how it will happen. And interestingly, the academic models that predict these elections, and they did much better than the rest of us in 2016, they are predicting just that, that the democrats will pick up a lot of house seats. Goes up to 44 seats. And at the same time, they are saying that republicans will keep the senate and a maybe even add a seats or two. It has happened. We have had several elections where that splirt mass opolices occurred. Of course it fits right in. Im with you. It is sort of like par for the trump course. Golfing analogy was on purpose. Larry, as always, thank you. Go canes. You know would will win. See you on the lawn i hope. Up heed, tahead, the growin mystery surrounding this missing saudi journal its. 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