Exploring issues that affect leaders in the U. S. And around the globe. Finish line. And one of the president s first congressional supporters now faces criminal charges. Congressman collins cheated our markets and our justice system. Is a wider Culture Of Corruption Story Unraveling around the white house . This is mtp daily an it starts right now. Good evening, im chuck todd here on a very busy washington, d. C. Welcome to mtp daily. Is it really august . Once again welcome to a wild day of legal and Political Developments surrounding, who else, but the president. One of his top loyalists in the house was just arrested on Insider Trading charges on a plot that was so brazen, it includes the white house south lawn, by the way. As it was described by federal prosecutors today that you have got to see it to believe it. Weve have much more on this story and this Culture Of Corruption Stench thats starting to grow around the president coming up. But were also going to talk about the political fallout from the story as well, because the bigger story is that it arguably couldnt come at a worse time for House Republicans, which is where we begin tonight. Folks, the antitrump midterm wave is on full display right now and the president seems intent on diving head first right into it. Democrats surged again in a reliably red district that the president carried easily, again. The republican candidate, Troy Balderson, is barely eking out a load after last nights vote. The result which we deem as still too close to call because there are more votes to be counted than the margin between the two candidates. But this close result should be a giant flashing warning sign for the gop. They significantly outspent democrats in this district and the president swooped in at the 11th hour on saturday to fire up the base. Today the rnc said that event is
what carried balderson across the finish line. Do you think the visit on saturday even kept this thing close . The visit on saturday is why we won. Well, the president also took credit for the apparent victory today as you might expect he would, but that suggests that the situation is even worse than some republicans feared, because that kind of Rescue Mission will be impossible to replicate in 435 races this november. If you had a Base Turnout Problem in this district, then you have a major problem. So thats why im not sure i buy that. But for his part the president insisted as long as i campaign and or support senate and house candidates within reason they will win. And if i find the time, which i must, we will have a giant red wave. A few hours later, this tweet. Red wave but the results from last night suggest that a suburban rebellion is whats actually brewing right now and its brewing against this president. The democratic candidate surge
im going to get this tweet exactly correct. If anything, tonights ohio 12 result reinforces our view that dems are substantial favorites to retake the house in november. So let me ask you to go another step. If you look at sort of what the night in general showed, right, with suburban turnouts in spokane and in st. Louis and in columbus, what does substantial now look like in your mind . What is shows, chuck, is that the seatbyseat forecast is catching up with our Macro Estimate which has long been that democrats are substantial favorites to win back the house. Now, we see the trump zones, particularly in places like rural ohio last night, they did not turn out. In fact Troy Balderson owes his margin right now not to the trump zones but rather to Governor John Kasich who cut a lastminute ad. Its the democratic suburbs like Franklin County that turned out at really high levels, and it was those Delaware County suburbs last night that keptTroy Balderson ahead. Thats kasich country. Yeah, thats what was amazing. I saw that our friends at the New York Times crunched some numbers. The raw vote turnout in those Rural Counties was, mediocre at best, 28 to 32 , compared to what we saw in oconnors strong holds. If the president s visit helped, then how bad could it have been . It could have been worse. Were potentially looking at a historic wave election. I think the tendency on the part of a lot of pundits is to be cautious, but this truly could turn into a big set of gains for democrats that goes beyond the 23 seats they need. All right. Theres a man here who was in charge of the last major wave in the first term of a president. Its my man, michael steel, of the rnc. Yeah. I remember democrats would eke out special election victories in 2010. Republicans are eking out a bunch of them. I think wasserman noted its actually the best record
technically on paper. Democrats did really well in special elections in 2010. What do you see . What i see here is exactly as has been laid out. This is setting itself up very much like it did in 2010 in that the energy is on the ground. The energy is in spots around the country that quite honestly, the National Parties dont necessarily really understand how impactful they can be. I mean just as the point you just made, chuck, about looking at those suburbs and the fact that the turnout based on the plus r ratio, you think, okay, the president is coming in, everybody will be fired up and going to go. Youve got to cut beneath that. Youve got to get below that surface. There is a lack of energy on the republican side that we are not acknowledging, that were not accounting for when were looking at the numbers, when were looking at the ground game and looking at the november
to win tough races when our candidate is being outraced and every republican is getting vastly outraised by an opponent needs to raise more money. This is a bit of a guys, wake up. In other words, theyre saying theyre not going to be able to shell out 3 million for every house race that should be safely republican that they shouldnt be competing in. Thats a big warning Flare Cory Bliss is sending out there. Its perfectly fair. The divide to me that was so staggering in the Ohio Special Election Bwas the urban metropolitan versus the rural. This is the story of the trump era. These two places are right next to each other, in the same district. And the balance of it is going to come down to the suburbs. White voters affluent, College Educated, moving away from the republicans. If they turn away from republicans, thats where the blue wave will come up. I brought up missouri too, im always such a geek, i like
to look at every result because you never know something thats buried that people missed. I feel like theres sort of now are we looking at two different types of Swing Districts for this cycle, meaning normal Swing Districts so your Collar Counties around philadelphia, the suburbs of minneapolis, that makes sense. But do we now have a new one, that next ring of districts that straddle the suburbs and exurbs like ohio 12, Like Washington 5, like really like virginia 7, the dave bratt seat. Missouri 2 actually sort of qualifies in that category too perhaps. Yeah, youre absolutely right, chuck. We call these districts urban rural divides. The danger for republicans is that you could have scenarios like the one we saw in ohio 12 where turnout in Franklin County was 60 of 2016 and in the most republican county in the district, it was only 46 of 2016. It was reminiscent of pennsylvania 18 or the Alabama Senate election. And if you have that kind of
dynamic, we better be watching the 68 republicanheld districts that are less republican than ohio 12. And when the battlefield becomes that large, the problem for republican outside groups like the clf is that it becomes financially unmanageable. They cant throw enough money at these races to effectively define the democratic opponents. Ive got to ask about Chris Collins today. First, david, lay out the district for us, okay. On paper you have it as solid republican. Explain. Well, we just moved this to likely republican in light of the indictment because when it rains, it pours for republicans. But look, this is the most republican seat in new york state. It was a district that voted for President Trump by 24 points in 2016. And yet democrats have a potentially credible candidate in nate mcmurray. He doesnt live in the district. Chris collins will certainly point out that he used his town email, hes a Town Supervisor in grand island, new york, to
pursue some political aims and try to tie him to hillary clinton, that way to neutralize his own legal problems. But look, we have to Pay Attention to races like these where republicans are under indictment in safe seats. Hes the only one so far but Duncan Hunter in california, were watching that too. You know, its so funny, daniellea and michael and sahil, if you look at the 06 wave, if you look at the 94 wave and ill throw in the 10 but certainly 06 and 94, with the indictment, hed never lose that district, thats chicago. Actually he lost it. So you never know but corruption is that it can be the Exclamation Point of the wave. What i finding interesting on the corruption front is that back in those races, corruption was something that was pointed out by the opposing party, so
they were going after and used it as a weapon. In this situation, you had an administration coming in talking about were going to clean up the corruption and in fact have embraced it, have promoted it in some instances and now have to go on the defense this november against a very simple narrative by the democrats, like really . This is what youre going to put up . Look, it is sometimes that special added sauce. I look at 06, you had the mark foley situation, the Jack Abramoff situation had blown up. It was in addition to the iraq war. Theres a lot happening here. Theres corruption, theres everything surrounding trump from his corruption just to the person that he is to the fact that republicans really havent done anything since they have been in power. They havent passed any meaningful legislation. The tax cut is totally unpopular with people. They dont feel the effects and if they do, its negative. I have an idea. This is a good time to have a fight over funding for the border wall. Maybe a Good Government shutdown is what House Republicans need in september. No . David, is that good strategy, the white house is contemplating it . I tending not to think it is, chuck. Id call it inadvisabilivisi one of the fascinating things about ohio 18 is National Republicans came in saying, hey, look at this tax cut, isnt that great . It didnt work. People didnt respond to it, so it shifted to a cultural message talking about the liberal resistance, going after illegal immigration. This is what galvanizes the base. Through these ads, the party is telling us what they think galvanizes and motivates their voters in the trump era. David, im going to let you have the final word here. When you look do you now look at this whole what happened last night and do you reevaluate every race almost looking at it
weve got a candidate in Northern Indiana whos disavowed her who might have a shot. There are democrats all over the map in similar districts who know that this is what they have to do to show separation and show that theyre the candidates of change. All right. David wasserman, pretty much the only person you need to follow on an Election Night on twitter. David, thank you very much, sir. I dispute that, chuck, but thank you very much. I know you do. This is why were throwing accolades at you so thank you. Up ahead, what does this too close to call race in ohio mean for the fight inside the gop . Whos gop is it, john kasichs or donald trumps. Well ask the republican governor of ohio, next. Welcome back. We dont know for sure if President Trumps visit made things better or worse for republican Troy Balderson in ohio. But woe do know turnout gap between the suburbs and Rural Counties should be making a lot of moderate republicans or shall we call them more Chamber Of CommercePro Business Republicans nervous. Joining me now is a politician you might say is representative of that wing of the party, maybe the trump skeptic wing of the party. Its ohio Governor John Kasich. He, by the way, represented ohios 12th District In Congress for nine terms. Governor kasich, good to see you, sir. Yeah, i also as governor had a win in those areas too. Yes, you did that. Im not some Chamber Of Commerce type look, im a positive pauopulist. I know you are. Come on, dont be defining me that way. Let me ask you this. Theres obviously a slice of the Republican Party you speak to better than donald trump does. And its this slice of the Republican Party that seems to be wavering on him. Is that a fair statement . Chuck, theres no question that people sent a message to the party, to republicans, knock it off. The chaos, the divisions, i mean kids being separated from their parents at the border. These crazy tariffs. Hey, were going to take your health care. Were going to kill obamacare, which means youre not going to have any health care. Or if you have a preexisting condition, well, you might be out of luck. This is kind of what gets communicated. And whats happened here, i cannot describe to you how amazing it was that the race was close because this Delaware County, for example explain that. Well, the republican in Delaware County would normally get about 70 of the vote. This was like 5050. And so if you look at how donald
trump did in the general in Delaware County, he probably got around, i dont know, 65 or 70. But then this candidate gets 50 . And its because a lot of republican women, they dont like this noise. They dont like this division. It was interesting what one of your panelists said about the democratic candidate who is not that forceful. He was just not neither of them really emerged great. I think it was basically a vote on what people thought about trump. Thats interesting you say that. Ive been telling people that you could characterize this race, this is no personal knock against either candidate, but that many voters saw it as generic democrat versus generic republican. Is that a Fair Assessment in your view . Well, i dont know what that means, chuck, but heres what i do know. I know that in areas, suburbs particularly where republicans would win, the republican lost. I know that there were these republican women that ive heard
talking whenever im out and about, they just were either not going to vote or they were going to vote for the democrat. We may be in the beginning of entering in some ways a post partisan environment where people are going to stop listening so much to the party and start taking the measure of what theyre seeing. I mean its a really interesting time. But if youre not positive, if you dont have a vision, if you dont unite people, if You Dont Lift People and youre not an idea candidate, youre going to struggle and maybe lose. You on another sunday show, a fine broadcast, you made mention, you said you had a conversation with Troy Balderson going why did you ask President Trump to come in . And then you said he didnt. Where do you fall . Do you think President Trumps appearance on saturday helped oconnor, helped balderson, or was it already baked in . You know what i think, chuck, is i think the attention of the National Media got more people
to vote. I think that happened. I think that the fact that there was a focus. Left or right, do you know which way . Do you know which way . No, i think it just got people. But you see, again, there were people who voted for trump who now are either not voting or voting for the democrat or, you know, you have you have some of these democrats who kind of supported trump who kind of go back to their party, i think, here. But this was so close and so stunningly close in a district look, the congressman that was there before it in the last election won by 17 points. This is a more and more republican district than when i had it, much more republican. You know, even in a special election, there were more votes in this special election than people had anticipated. But again, when you heres the challenge for the republicans. If you are losing College Educated women, if you are losing millenials, if you are losing minorities because youre not getting much of that vote at
all, youve got a problem. The democrat problem, the question is they need to be more center left. Theyre way out on the left. Now, this guy wasnt. Th