And why the russia investigation could come down to 18 key day fs in 2017. This is mtp daily, and it starts right now. Good evening. Im katy tur in new york in for chuck todd. Welcome to mtp daily. Tomorrow could change everything. Alabama voters will either send an accused child molester to the senate, freaking out a lot of republicans, or deliver a stinging rebuke against the president , which is going to freak out a lot of republicans. A lot have changed since last year when President Trump was elected despite multiple allegations of sexual assault. Yet here we are wondering if the endorsement of a president accused of sexually assaulting women will clinch a victory for a Senate Candidate accused of sexually assaulting teenagers. Both the president and roy moore denied the allegations against them, but Senate Leaders have made it very clear that theyre going to investigate the allegations against roy moore if he wins. And today three of the president s accusers held a press conference to demand that Congress Investigate the allegations against him, too. They spoke out the day after the president s own ambassador to the u. N. Said this about his accusers women who accuse anyone should be heard, and i think any woman who has felt violated or felt mistreated in any way, they have every right to speak up. Women should always feel comfortable coming forward, and we should all be willing to listen to them. As you might expect, the white house today dismissed the idea of a congressional probe into the allegations against the president. The president has addressed these accusations directly, and denied all of these allegations, and this took place long before he was elected to be president , and the people of this country at a decisive election supported President Trump, and we feel like these allegations have been answered through that process. It begs the question, should those allegations be revisited . A growing number of Senate Democrats are now calling for the president to consider resigning over them, and in roy moores case, even with the white house fully backing him, some republican senators say the allegations against him are just too much. That includes richard shelby, senior senator from alabama. He says his state deserves better. So many accusations. So many cuts. So many drip, drip, drip. When it got to the 14yearold story, that was enough for me. I said, i cant vote for roy moore. And republican senator Lindsey Graham is warning the party that roy moore is going to be tattooed to their foreheads if he wins. If he runs in 2018, its republican, roy moore becomes your best friend. Youll be asked about 10,000 times what do you think about roy moore. Roy moore will be what keeps on giving for democrats and by the time the 2018 election, at least 2018. Whether moore wins or not is anyones guess. Right now supporters on both sides of this race are pulling out all the stops. President obama has gotten involved. He record add robocall to get alabamians to go to the polls to vote for democrat doug jones. Joe biden recorded one, too. President trump recorded one for moore after firing up moores base at a friday night rally, but on the ground, this is a tale of two very different campaigns. Doug jones is talking to voters and speaking with the press today, but roy moore hasnt been seen in public in nearly a week. Lets go to a couple of my nbc news colleagues. Vaughn hilliard in midland city following all things alabama, and Peter Alexander is at the white house. Vaughn, start right there. Where in the world is roy moore . I heard a roomer that he was in philadelphia over the weekend. Reporter exactly. Lets start with where we knee respe know roy moore was. He went with staffers to a Campaign Party and met up way 12yearold girl who interviewed him, her name, milly. A big donald trump supporter. The campaign posted that video here this afternoon. We dont know whether he went to philadelphia. There was an Army Navy Football game. I asked the Deputy Campaign manager whether he was at that game. Said, im not talking. This is the weekend before election day. Right . Usually there is a canvassing, phonemaking effort and the candidate, comparing it to doug jones in selma, montgomery, birmingham, huntsville, meeting with supportering and volunteers. Looking at the campaigns youd think the democrat would far and away win this. Because its alabama, theres a distinction to be made there understanding those two campaign situations. Did i hear you correctly the campaign posted a video of roy moore being interviewed by 12yearold girl. Really . Reporter yes. They havent interviewed with a news outlet since the initial allegations came out. Thats what they thought was the best ill leave that aside. Robocalls for jones. Obama is doing them. Biden is doing them. Roy moore is getting one from President Trump. Any indication that thats having an affect on the race . Reporter exactly. The robocalls from the president and former Vice President will be going out here this evening. They were hesitant to bring out the likes of barack obama. Theyre going out because they need turnout, the democratic vote, in places like the black belts here. In jefferson county. They need the democrats to come out in this race. Look at the other side. President trump is essentially making the pitch to republicans here in the state who have shown a willingness to vote against roy moore. Recall the 2020 race, won by just 3 . This is a federal race. Werther talking with republicans on the ground, many made the case because of the importance of the u. S. Senate they are willing to vote for roy moore despite the allegations out there. President trump who is still very popular in the state was making that pitch to them through those phone calls here at the last minute. Peter ashes man, a man accus molesting children, now getting a robocall from the president of the United States, who himself has been accused of Sexual Misconduct by more than a dozen women. Three came out today reiterating they Want Congress to do something about it. They Want Congress to investigate. What is the white houses position officially on the accuse jers should they be heard or not heard . Reporter the white house says that this has been adjudicated. That americans overwhelmingly voted in support of donald trump. Not that that in anyway negates the stories these women are sharing nap is the white house take and suggested, Sarah Sanders today, in the briefing, there are eyewitnesss to dispute these allegations of Sexual Misconduct against President Trump. When i asked specifically for evidence who those eyewitnesses were, one of the white house spokespersons replied to me, with an email that identified one man who was presented during the course of the campaign, dismissing the account of that woman you see in purple there on the left of your screen, Jessica Leeds from her account back in the earl y 1980, and second sample, katie blair, a miss teen usa in 2007, notable, 2006, excuse me. What was notable about what she said was that when she was at miss teen usa saw no lewd behavior by President Trump, but to be clear, the allegation against him was not from that pageant but a different pageant back in 1997. So obviously, this story has yet to disappear. In terms of the president s willingness, katy to get in on this. Be clear, the robocalls made in support of luther strange, ed gillespie in virginia, both failed. Here in alabama, these two share a base with the candidate, sarah base, and President Trump, President Trump feels confident putting his voice and efforts behind him. See if that works out in less than 24 hours. Thank you both very much. Lets get a republican perspective on this. Joining me now, hugh hewitt, nbc news political analyst and host of the hugh hewitt show right here on msnbc and from the review institute. Thank you, gentlemen, for being here. Lets just get to this race tomorrow. David, what happens if roy moore wins . What happens to the gop . I think its devastating for the gop, honestly. I mean, the best way to guarantee that youre going to get more roy moores and more cranks running for gop offices is to vote for roy moore. Elect a roy moore. This guy will be a Walking Campaign commercial for the democrats. I mean, hes going to make todd akin look like a scholar and gentleman, and, think about this. This about how much he is disrespecting gop voters. Hes not even out on the campaign trail. Hes asking people, asking the people of alabama to like theghr reputations on fire to hut him in the senate when he is not even exerting the basic effort a normal semicompetent sdnd to ask for their vote. Its disrespectful and of a piece with this man. Hes a disrespect 2ful, cons stishlly ignorant child molester that doesnt belong in the senate. A couple weeks ago on meet the press together, you were confidence roy moore would lose. Are you still that confident . Yes, i am. Richard shelby appearing yesterday stating succinctly he already did not vote for roy moore has quite an impact. Our colleague on msnbc, the washington post, washington Weekend Review has been driving around alabama, i preface saying anecdotes evidence is evidence of anecdotes. Seize a huge gap there of signs. Doesnt see roy moore soin sig. People who live in alabama dont want to be seen as roy moore supporters because they are vocal and come after them on social media and in person, et cetera. Steve schmidt just told Nicolle Wallace on the hour previous that as Vice President of the largest p. R. Firm in the world, there isnt enough money to save alabamas fwrabrand if they ele roy moore. Thats going to weigh heavily on suburbanite voters and a new fox poll tonight shows roy moore down by ten points behind doug jones. Stunning. We should point out, polls are all over the place. True. And take the polling average, roy moore up by a couple points. Polling in alabama is historically very different to nail down who exactly is going to come out to vote. So if he does win, say he does win, david, and he does face a congressional ethics investigation, why shouldnt donald trump face one, too . Given theyre both facing allegations . Well, for one thing, the senate has got an opportunity and i think a constitutional obligation to decide whether or not to seat roy moore. There is a constitutional provision, essentially a fail safe, against the people electing a person whos not fit to be seated in the senate. Thats job one for the senate to take care of its own. As far as the donald trump allegations, i have absolutely no objection to a congressional investigation of these of these accusations. I mean, theyre very serious. Theres multiple accusations and if the roles reversed and this was a democratic president facing similar accusations i firmly believe the republicans would want to futility, just calling for. Complete exercise in futility asking the president to resign. At this point i think the folk hayes to be on if roy moore wins, the senate takes care of, to preserve the worlds greatest deliberative body in not seating him. Hugh, where is the line . The ethical line . Where is the ethical floor, i guess, for who republicans will endorse for office . Well, article one, republicans. People sit in the house and senate are governed by their own bodies pursuant to powers given to those bodies to control the behavior of their own members. When al franken is getting tossed out or bob packwood, the constitution vests them to control their own ethics. The only power against the president is impeachment. So if new allegations arise or new facts in old allegations arise, post the president ial election, i think youd see an upswell in chatter about immaei impeachment but they havent. Theyre talking about the same allegations today that were asked and answered by 62. 9 million voters who voted for donald trump last year. Go ahead . I was just keep going. So to me the line is, when does the appropriate body in this case for the American People to vote for the president or the congress to vote impeachment get the amount of evidence they need to move forward . There are clear ethical lines in my mind. We talked about them before, katy, you ask me to articulate. Its whether or not a civil trial for assault and or battery would get to a jury and would prevail as a preponderance of the evidence. Same standard for everyone on every allegation of assault, child molestation or any unethical behavior. We saw another journalist topple today, rhine lizza, fired by the new yorker. Its sweeping through the country. I welcome it. I cant say i am not without sadness for ryan, a guest on my show many times but its going to roll down and keep rolling down. And if roy moore does win, david, are you confident that the republicans will keep to their word in having an ethics investigation and not just an investigation, but a thorough and credible one . After all, republicans have said a lot of things, about a lot of things and reneged on them as the goal posts get moved farther and farther back with this president specifically . I think there will be an investigation. I believe it will be credible. You have to understand, what will then happen, the bannon wing of the party will launch their new scorched earth, a new scorched Earth Campaign against mcconnell, against Senate Republicans to demand they respect the will of the people, because roy moore is part of draining the swamp. So what you would have is, a new battle, a new version of the civil war that was, the republican civil war already taking place in alabama will move to washington, d. C. And be very, very intense again. Now, as far at whether the republicans on capitol hill could weather that, and conduct a credible investigation, and if that credible investigation demonstrates what appears to be true here, that he is likely someone who has been a child molester, would they have the courage and the fortitude to expel roy moore in the face of the bannon assaults and the bannon wing assaults and maybe even donald trump assaults i dont know. A really good question. Thank you both very much. Reliable red alabama is anything but reliable right now. Well show you the places that could matter most for roy moore and doug jones, next. more people shop online for the holidays than ever before. clapping and the United StatesPostal Service delivers more of those purchases to homes than anyone else in the country. because we know, even the smallest things are sometimes the biggest. Even the sm llest things if you wear a denture, you not only want a clean feeling every day, you want your denture to be stain free. Did you know theres a specialty cleanser thats gentle enough for everyday use and cleans better than regular toothpaste . Try polident cleanser. It has a four in one cleaning system that kills ten times more odor causing bacteria than regular toothpaste, deep cleans where brushing may miss, helps remove tough stains, and maintains the original color of your dentures when used daily. For a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture, use polident every day. Welcome back. At this time tomorrow well be bricking you the very first exit polls out of alabama. Yes. Exit polls, because even though this race is in ruby red alabama, it is impossible to predict what will happen tomorrow when senate votes start rolling in. Those 5 00 p. M. Eastern time exit polls will give a first look how the race might be trending. One thing we know in this race specifically is where to watch to see whether or not roy moore or doug jones is pulling ahead. Joining us now to run through all this, our own Steve Kornacki at the big board. Steve what will you keep an eye on . Katy, numbers here. First you mentioned the exit polls. Alabama is usually so noncompetitive, didnt even take an exit poll last president s election. Back to 2012, the last time we got a comprehensive exit poll from alabama. When we get it tomorrow, what will he book at . With know jones will get the lions share of the black vote. Obama got 90 in 2012. More important, the question of turnout. How many black voters will turn out . A number there. When obama ran in 2012, on the ballot, the number hit 28 of the electorate was black. In the past, its been more like 23 , 25 . How close is jones able to get to that 28 mark . That would be very high turnout. The closer to 28 , the better news for democrats. The other key, democrats have to flip white voters in the state. Have to flip a lot of them. The two different groups sort of by social class. Look at white with a college degree, noncollege white. Look, the bread and butter for jones will be the College Educated white suburbanites. He needs a lot of them. How many . Look at it this way. Total among white voters if youre a democrat, to be in the game in alabama, probably need 35 at least. Comes much more from the suburbanites, we think, if jones is able to get it. Basically has to run neck and neck with moore among College Educated whites to get a shot at get tlting that 35 . Show you what it looks like if a democrat. You can always count on these 12 counties, heavily black counties. The question here, again, is turnout. How many voters . Flipping white voters, madison county, outside huntsville, suburbs. Shelby county outside of birmingham, probably talking about that a lot tomorrow night and in the south, youve got mobile and right next door, baldwin county. Thats where jones has to sbeea into that traditional republican support. My eyes will be glued to you and that screen tomorrow night. Thanks, Steve Kornacki. Accusations against President Trump, when we come back in just 60 seconds. Ay chec, you actually like what you