Direction, then we should see it in both states tonight, right . He is under serious fire, and we could see our first real evidence tonight if this stoptrump movement is gaining traction. To me, saturday will be explained away if trump does well tonight, as simply being a night of conservative contests. But if tonight is close, then well go back to thursday, that raucous debate, mitt romney, all of those things. Hot off the presses, though, besides exit polls, weve got a brandnew nbc news wall street Journal National poll of the republican contests. So ive got a lot of numbers that ill be throwing at you in a few minutes. Youre looking right now at kannapolis, north carolina, thats where ted cruz is holding a 5 00 p. M. Rally ahead of tonights results. North carolina, by the way, one of five of those big states a week from today on sort of second super tuesday. When all is said and done tonight, though, rubio has got to worry about finishing fourth in michigan and mississippi, thanks to john kasich. Tomorrow, at 8 00 p. M. Eastern, ill be hosting a town hall with rubio at Florida International university in miami. Well likely have plenty to talk about. By the way, hes hanging his hat on the island. The island known as hawaii, a set of islands in a state. If he can win out there tonight, he can say that two of his biggest victories were not in the continental united states. As for john kasich, he hasnt made an effort in every state, but he usually does well in states he targets. And kasich has put a lot of emphasis on both michigan and mississippi. He could use a strong second place finish in michigan tonight. It would give him some serious momentum going into ohio next week. And on the left, michigan could be Bernie Sanders last stand. Its his best remaining chance to prove that he can be competitive with Hillary Clinton in a big, diverse state. Can he beat her in a big and diverse state . If not now, when . And michigans issues are tailormade for Bernie Sanders. Our team of nbc reporters are running on caffeine and adrenaline. Theyre fanned out across the country, covering every candidate, as they all await tonights results. Well get the latest from each one in just a minute. Hundreds of delegates are in play tonight, so lets dive in. We begin with a quick road map for tonight. At 8 00 p. M. Eastern, polls close in the democratic and republican primaries in mississippi. An hour later, its the big prize of the night, michigan, 147 delegates are at stake for the democrats, 59 delegates for the republicans. First time, by the way, in over 20 years that the Michigan Democratic and republican primaries are being held competitively on the same night. Could limit the amount of crossover tonight on the republican side. At 11 00 p. M. Eastern, polls close in the republican primary in idaho. 32 delegates up for grabs there. And the action doesnt stop until late into the night early morning, 1 00 a. M. Eastern, doors close on the republican caucuses in hawaii. In this race, as you know, every delegate counts. Donald trump has nearly 400 delegates, but ted cruz is less than 100 off of him. Rubio is desperate for something to go his way. And kasich is looking for some momentum. On the left, its a grim delegate picture for sanders. You can look at the math here. Clinton is crushing him by roughly 600 delegates when you throw in the supers, but has about a 200 delegate lead even without them. That brings us to our latest number in our new nbc news wall street Journal National poll. On the democratic side, as we reported earlier today, sanders has his best number yet in a National Poll against Hillary Clinton, but her lead remains and shes up nine points over 50 . And as you can see, little really has changed in this race in the last month. But on the republican side, we have brandnew numbers out right now, and its a muchdifferent story. We have deadlocked essentially in a statistical try, trump up three points. Kasich has catapulted into third place in our numbers there, as you can see, ahead of rubio, but within the margin. Trump has gained a couple of points since last month, likely due as primary wins. We should note our new nbc News Survey Monkey had trump, its part of a pattern where drump does better in online polls. The bigger mover is john kasich, up double digits. Tonight may serve as a critical benchmark for the stoptrump movement. Weve seen an onslaught from elders like mitt romney, millions of dollars hitting the air waves in attack ads like this one a bunch of which was put together by romneys former advisers. He gets the nomination, theyre going to sue his [ bleep ]. He said shes a [ bleep ]. I dont give a [ bleep ]. Well beat the [ bleep ] out of him. Theyre ripping the [ bleep ] out of the city. Bull [ bleep ]. What the [ bleep ] are we doing . Youre not going to raise that [ bleep ] price. I have the best words. And you can tell them to go and [ bleep ] themselves. The purpose of that was to try to hit him for the words he chooses, for the decorum, for that issue. The ad is running just in the panhandle, evangelicals being the target for now. Trump is also under fire for something hes been doing at Campaign Rallies recently, where he asked the crowd to raise their hands and pledge to vote for him. Abe foxman, a holocaust survivor who ran the Antidefamation League said it looked like a, quote, heil hitler absolute. The idea that you would take this loyalty oath. You know what . I raise my hand and i take an oath to you, to the people. Thats whos working for whom. And the idea that a candidate running for office wants the people to pledge loyalty to him like subjects to a king, well, weve had seven years of a president who thinks hes an emperor. Folks, its possible that some of this might be taking its toll on trump when it comes to his standing among republican voters. Because in the headtohead matchups, trump continues to struggle in our polling. In twoman races, just among republicans, between trump and cruz, trump trails by 17 points. In a twoperson republican race between trump and rubio, trump trails by 13 points. And in a twoperson race with kasich, trump trails by 17 points. In those headtoheads. Well get to that in the next block with our pollsters. But let me hit the road. Correspondents out in the trenches. Katy tur, hallie jackson, Gabe Gutierrez, craig melvin, and kasie hunt. Lets start off with katy tur. Trump will be having his primary night press conference, as the results come in. It should be a big night, but if we dont know the results by 9 00 or 10 00, hes going to have to start getting very nervous. Reporter that is exactly right. Were looking at mississippi and michigan as two states hes got to win, but not only win, but do really well in. So far, weve seen droouz do better than expected in maine and in kansas. The latebreaking voters going to him instead of donald trump. So his margin of winning has diminished quite a bit, as weve gone on through this primary season. And if that happens again tonight, certainly, questions among the Trump Campaign about what they need to do to change their tactics moving forward. Right now, the establishment wing of the Republican Party is going after him really hard. Youre seeing mitt romney record those robo calls, also, tweet a link to that attack ad that you just played a moment ago. The stoptrump effort gaining moment, because theyre seeing cracks, essentially, in the facade of the Trump Campaign. Will that continue tonight or will big wins in michigan and mississippi propel him to more big wins, potentially, on the next super tuesday next tuesday. Chuck . We shall see. Katy tur in jupiter. Katy, thanks very much. Lets go to hallie jackson, shes with the Cruz Campaign in north carolina. Where theyre holding a rally. North carolina among those, i think, that has gone under the radar for second super tuesday, thats a week from tonight. But what is the Cruz Campaign defining as victory. As you know, chuck, the campaign is being cagey as far as putting all their eggs in one basket and declaring if they will win somewhere. But i think you can look to idaho and i think you can expect to see from the Cruz Campaign, a strong showing there. Theyd like to have a good finish in mississippi and michigan. Theyre looking to get above that 15 threshold and pull in some delegates and make sure that in a state where donald trump looks strong, he doesnt totally run away with it. Hawaiis kind of a question mark, but you nailed it with north carolina, chuck. Ted cruz has held two events here today, and listen to where hes headed tomorrow. Miami. Hes focusing now on super tuesday ii next week, trying to make a play, not just here in north carolina, not just in missouri, by the way, where you may see him put in some time and some resources, but also in florida to try to keep a lid on marco rubio. Cruz wants this to be a twoman race. The thinking goes, if they can keep a lid on rubio in florida, they can get trump one on one, which is where they want to be. Theyre betting they can do well if thats the matchup. Hallie, its a risky strategy, because if you kill rubio now, you hand florida to trump, and the numbers get very, very tricky in that delegate count. I get what theyre trying to do, but its a risk. Anyway, hallie jackson, thanks very much. Reporter a roll of the dice. Lets move over to Gabe Gutierrez with the Rubio Campaign in on tponte verde, florida. It could be a tough night early for them, but theyre hoping some time either very early tomorrow morning or late tonight they get good news out of hawaii. Explain. Reporter thats right. It could be a very disappointing night at the start of it for marco rubios campaign. They could finish a disappointing fourth. Thats a possibility in michigan and in mississippi. But they also have spent some time in idaho, so theyre looking for a potentially strong finish there. But hawaii could be a strong showing for rubio, as well. Another key for the Rubio Campaign finishing up above that 15 delegate threshold in michigan, to see if they can pick up some delegates there. But really, are the Rubio Campaign at this point, its all about florida. They spent the past day here, really crisscrossing the state. They have this rally later on tonight. Tomorrow, theyll be in miami, and well be talking to you later on in miami. Throughout the day today, the Rubio Campaign really pushed back on this notion and this cnn report, citing anonymous sources, suggesting that several rubio advisers had urged them to get out of the race. The Rubio Campaign says that is not the case, he says hes in this, and he considers himself an underdog, but he can win in florida. The question will be, will these attack ads against donald trump gain any traction, and what happens with ted cruz . Can he make a play in this state to squeeze rubio out . That remains to be seen. But they hope they can get some momentum after the debate in miami this week. Lets go to craig melvin, in columbus, ohio, where the Kasich Campaign will hold their Election Night rally tonight. And ill tell you, john kasichs having a great night in our new nbc news wall street journal poll. Will he have an equally great night with voters in the state of michigan . Do they think they can finish second tonight . Reporter chuck, ive spent the better part of the day talking to kasich surrogates, talking to voters, as well. The surrogates tell me that if he finishes second tonight in michigan, they will treat that as if he has won michigan, using that momentum to hopefully move into ohio next week, they vote here in ohio a week from today. Winner take all, of course. So, yeah, i mean, if john kasichs going to have a moment, his people believe that the moment likely starts tonight. Since thursday, the super pac supporting john kasich has spent roughly 1. 2 million on television in ohio. There are only two candidates on tv right now in the buckeye state. Its kasich and its donald trump. Hes spent roughly 1 million. Kasichs campaign has chipped in another few hundred thousand. Hes going to be in chicago, kasichs going to be in chicago tomorrow, but after that, were told, hes going to be putting all of his eggs in the ohio basket. Hes guaranteeing a win next tuesday here, chuck. Well, he has no choice, because if he doesnt win, as he said, hes out of the race. So if i were him, i would be guaranteeing that, too. Reporter thats right. Anyway, craig melvin in columbus, ohio, with a campaign that may feel like its starting to get some momentum. Lets shift to the democrats, Kristen Welker joins us from cleveland, ohio, where Hillary Clinton is set to have a rally tonight. Were having this pattern here where everybody wants to be in the next big state, as they await word about what happens tonight. They would like a sweep tonight. Do they think a sweep puts sanders away . Reporter they think so, chuck. And youre absolutely right, if secretary clinton not only wins, but theyre hoping to win by double digits, they think that would be convincing enough to start to really put this race out of reach, not necessarily mathematically, but at least when it comes to the momentum. We have seen the rhetoric really heat up in recent days. Senator sanders has been attacking secretary clinton for supporting past trade deals like nafta, incredibly unpopular in the state of michigan. She sort of fired back with this sneak attack on sunday night at that debate that caught senator sanders off guard a bit, when she criticized him for opposing the auto bailout. And as you know, chuck, that is incredibly popular in michigan and in states like ohio, where they credit it with reviving the economy and millions of jobs. So that has been an effective attack. Well have to see if it gets her to that doubledigit win, but the race incredibly important, it would solidify secretary clintons status as the frontrunner and could be senator sanders last stand opini. Chuck . Thats for sure. Kristen welker, thank you very much. Lets go to kasie hunt in our miami bureau, but is our sanders correspondent. Kasie, they pointed to michigan for weeks, they wanted to almost skip super tuesday to say, hey, look at michigan, look at michigan. They dont win tonight, whats their message . Reporter hey, chuck. Yeah, its really tough for them if they dont have an abnormally or an unexpectedly strong showing in michigan tonight, in many ways. I will say, both the Clinton Campaign and the Sanders Campaign, and i was talking to debby d ybie dingell, the congresswoman from the detroit area, whos a longtime watcher of michigan politics, they all say that the numbers are going to be closer than what many of these polls, including ours, have been showing, this doubledigit gap between sanders and clinton. And the Sanders Campaign is really counting on it. They know that if they dont do well in michigan, its going to be really hard for them to argue going into march 15th that theyre going to be able to win in places like ohio and illinois, and some of the other states that would actually give him a shot at being seen as a real contender, instead of just kind of a cause or the leader of a movement. The theyre going to prove that he can actually take her on for this nomination. The math is already difficult for them, but if they dont do well in michigan, followed by these other states next week, its going to be all but impossible. Thats for sure. And i think they know it. I thought it was interesting, maybe it was a slip of the tongue, but the whole, well, maybe sanders will be on the ticket, i thought was an odd, interesting freudian slip by tad devine, one of the sanders advisers. Kasie hunt, thanks very much. Well have our first look at the exit poll data out of michigan and mississippi after the break. Well dig deeper into those numbers as well as our new nbc news wall street Journal National poll up ahead with our pollsters. And later, well hit the ground with an update on what we can expect to see in tonights key republican contest, with longtime reporters on the beat in those states. Stay tuned. As promised, some breaking news. Weve got our very first look at the early exit polling out of mississippi and michigan. And heres what we can tell you, before polls close. The republican electorate in mississippi looks a lot like alabama did on super tuesday, according to the nbc news exit poll, mississippi has similar education and income profile to alabama. There are slightly more white evangelicals in mississippi, 76 , than alabamas 68 . Mississippi republicans are more likely to be very conservative than their neighbors to the east, 50 compared to 38 . This is also a slightly more conservative electorate than it was until 2012. That was a big threeway race, very close between santorum, romney, and gingrich at the time, being a little bit more of a conservative electorate, this might be good news for ted cruz. Well have much more in a moment. And keep it here on msnbc, your uptodate and uptotheminute results. Well be back with more exit poll info in a minute. So what kind of a night are we in for, if the previous contests are any indication, expect a big turnout for republicans compared to 2012. Look at this. Turnout in the gop primaries is up 40 , compared to 2012. Were talking numbers we havent seen since the Obama Movement in 2008. And on the republican side, they havent seen that, really, in the modern era, since everything really did shift more to primaries. Conversely, democratic primary turnout is down by roughly 40 compared to 2008. Joined now by the bipartisan polling team, democratic pollster fred yang, and republican pollster, Michael Robert s wis wit s wit roberts, Vice President at Public Opinion strategies. Michael,