collapsing. a surge in momentum for newt gingrich, being driven by a ton of super pac money and by those debates. >> more people have been put on food stamps by barack obama than any president in american history. >> she says you asked her, sir, to enter into an open marriage. would you like to take some time to respond to that? >> no, but i will. >> 16 days after the iowa caucuses, mitt romney, it turns out, did not win there. >> we actually won the iowa caucuses yesterday. >> people of south carolina, have a job to do. >> in 2008, john mccain won south carolina, when fred thompson split the right flank with mike huckabee. will a santorum/gingrich split on the right tonight resurrect mitt romney's chances. >> if you think china's better or rash's better or cuba's better or north korea's better, i'm glad to hear all about it. america's right and you're wrong. >> two x factors in the race, the long-shot, long-haul candidacy of ron paul. and the independent vote. >> i want you to vote for herman cain. because herman cain is me. >> what will be the roam of independents and even democrats turning out into today's open republican primary? the republican contest is as unsettled as it has ever been at this point in the process. south carolina tonight is more critical than it's ever been to the outcome. msnbc's coverage of the south carolina 2012 republican primary begins right now. >> good evening if our msnbc headquarters here in new york city, i'm rachel maddow, alongside our panel for tonight. republican strategist, steve schmidt, the chief strategist within the mccain campaign four years ago and the host of "the he had show" on msnbc, ed schultz. lawrence o'donnell, the host of the "last word" on msnbc. and the former presidential candidate, the reverend al sharpton. chris mauttthews is with us fro tampa, florida. >> i think everyone paying attention can see what this fight's about. mitt romney is the usual republican front-runner. the usual candidate positioned on snrt right to win the nomination and compete in the general election. he's polished, practiced, ready to serve. he is to put it succinctly, serviceable. but this is not the usual year. the quest this time is about passion, anger, it's about attitude, contempt, it's personal. it's to beat obama. beat him in the debate. beat him historically. it is to remove him from the scene of presidential politics. and this is the role for which newt gingrich is warming up for, with his rivals, news people, with anyone willing to stand up with him on a platform. to beat obama, to begin with by beating him on national televise. the only way, only way mitt romney can rob republicans of this spectacle, of gingrich against obama is a, keep gingrich off the stage by eventually as soon as possible, actually, cutting off debates. and two, spending every nickel that mitt romney can raise in a national campaign of negative advertising designed to destroy newt gingrich. this is a fascinating year in which gingrich owns the stage and mitt romney owns everything else. what a night. we're going to see tonight. >> you're exactly right, i mean the thing that, the thing that is inevitable after tonight, is no matter what happens tonight, florida is about to start filling up with money. in terms of what happens in the next race. thank you, chris, i want to bring in our panel here tonight, guys. i have to say, a week ago, i was not all that psyched for covering the south carolina primary. now i feel like i wish i could do it twice. >> i would like to get the night off. i begged, please, you don't need me, come on, it's predictable. >> south carolina is often amazing, what happened in 2008, steve you were there. was that john mccain won narrowly in south carolina. i find it very interesting that john mccain, that night, in south carolina, four years ago, did not win among registered republican voters. he won because he had this very large margin against independents and the few democrats who turned out, it was less than one in five of the voters who turned out. but he had a big-enough margin among them that he could dwroefr come mike huckabee, mike huckabee split the right vote with fred thompson. is there a john mccainenesque path. could he split enough of the right. >> one of the things you're look at tonight, if rick santorum can get up to 25% of the vote, may be. but if you look at the totality of all poll numbers, what they show is a total collapse for mitt romney in the state of south carolina. it looks heading into this evening that newt gingrich is going to win there. five short days ago, it looked like tonight was going to be the night that mitt romney went 3-0 in the first three contests. and really effectively ended the republican contest. now tonight, it's wide open and it looks for the fist time ever, you'll have three different winners in the first three contests. >> it will be 1-2 instead of 3-0. >> we're going to find out if south carolina is the land of redemption and all sins forgiven for newt gingrich. we may not see a big coalescing behind one, but we might see a guy entrenched in southern politics pull it out tonight. on the other hand, has there ever been a candidate with so much money and so much infrastructure who has run for president for so long, have such a terrible week as mitt romney? such poor advice from what to say on the stump and how to handle people -- you could arguably say heckling him. to the tax issue. to poor debates, i mean it's like he just got on the campaign trail and didn't know how to handle any of this stuff. >> was this a week that gingrich won or that romney lost. >> it's a romney loss, it's a romney collapse and gingrich was there and he was there with the right move when the collapse came. to ed's point about money, think we have seen this before. we saw it in this campaign, rick perry came in with even more money than romney and collapsed instantaneously, i pronounced his candidacy dead after the first debate and he proceeded to do that. phil graham coming out of texas many years ago was the massive, money bags that was going to show up in new hampshire, republican again, complete collapse. so this may be, if we see the romney collapse continue, we may be seeing a failure of big money politics. a profound and important failure of big money politics. and what it's failing to do is what we would want it to fail to, the importance of debates. the importance of that free moment on television where every candidate, including al sharpton when he was a candidate, can stand up there and say, this is why you should vote for me. if that's what, what wins an election here, we should all be happy about it. >> it is those debate performances plus a ton of super pac money tearing down romney. it's two-pronged -- >> incomparable, the romney money compared to the money against romney is incomparable. it's a mess all over the place. but if debates win it, we should all applaud debates win it. >> i don't think the debate -- >> as a candidate, the mistakes on the stump, the mistakes in the debates, i mean a guy so infrastructured into running for president, wow. >> i don't think, though, that gingrich is running and possibly winning tonight because in the debates he's talking about why you should vote for me. he's selling, i'm the guy that will be the most confrontational with president obama. i think that the thing we must keep in mind tonight, is the difference in '08 is in '08, we were replacing an incumbent republican, george bush. what is driving the vote tonight, is who's going to go up against president obama. and given a lot of hostility in the republican voters is who is going to be the meanest and the most brutal to barack obama. and newt gingrich seems to understand that. better than the rest. because he plays that. the way his demagogued this. the other thing i think we need to watch with money, rick perry stepped out of this, who had huge money. the question is if gingrich pulls this off tonight, does some of the perry money guys go to gingrich and head into florida? >> we did see one of the perry guys, right out after perry got out and endorsed gingrich, one of the perry guys went to romney. >> so the last money, the last point you must remember is not only, and i agree with ed, was romney terrible in the debates, and other things, he lost his inevitability. when have you ever heard a couple of days before a primary, you find out you lost the first caucus, that everybody thought you won? so not only are you not inevitable. you're not even the winner of the first race you came into south carolina with. >> in case any of our viewers have been in a hyperbaric chamber the past week, can we have a little bit of what newt gingrich has been running on this week? >> every person in here has had someone close to them go through painful things. to take an ex-wife, and make it two days before the primary, a significant question, of a presidential campaign, is as close to despicable, as anything i can imagine. >> despicable! newt gingrich there turned not only his three marriages and his ex-wife saying to him that he was lying to her while giving sanctity of marriage speeches, turned it into a net positive for himself. >> it's an acting performance worthy of meryl streep, and it's remarkable, and it worked, it's effective. the problem for republicans is this and what makes newt gingrich different from mitt romney, when you look at the general election is he is massively unpopular with the american people. newt gingrich lass a staggering level of you know, his favorable to unfavorable ratio is massively upside-down. he's known by 100% of the people. so there's a consequence for republicans, potentially of putting someone into a general election against barack obama who has a favorable ratio of some 30% and unfavorable ratio of 50-plus%. >> chris, you want to jump in on this? >> this is the thing, steve's right and everybody is right. i want to concur with that, in politics or in warfare, the most effective strategy is the attack from a defensive position. you saw with ronald reagan against jimmy carter. "there you go again." the crowd will root for the guy or woman who comes back from what looks like an unfair attack, always. so all newt had to do was wait for that time, either from juan williams or jon king, knowing it was coming, praying it was coming and then come back with the righteous indignation. the public automatically roots for the person who looks like they're simply defending who they are. and it's almost like the right or wrong of what was being talked about is irrelevant. it's tactical and newt knows the game. it was brilliantly executed. as steve points out, it's part acting, part true self-defense. and the emotions seemed to be there. and it's never there with mr. romney like that. where it seems like the person leaping out of the suit coat and responding in self-defense. >> and think about where the gingrich campaign would be tonight, if jon king had decided, you know what, i think marriage is out of bounds for a presidential debate. i'm not going to ask about it. >> or if jon king had said, i'm not going to ask this like i'm prying, i'm going to ask you about your hypocrisy. >> newt would have found something else to jump on. you must understand, the people in that audience feel that the so phantom elite liberal media looks at them a certain way. if will and romney had fought back when they brought up taxes of bain in the same spread, they would have cleared for him. they identify with this underdog, we're fighting against them and newt gingrich understands that better than the rest on the stage. >> and the people in south carolina don't like the media. they love to target that. the other thing is you talk about debates, lawrence, newt hasn't had a bad one. newt hasn't had a gaffe. he hasn't had a gaffe. he hasn't been not ready for an answer. when he goes out and talks to people on the stump, the guy knows his stuff. he's been around politics, he knows all ins and outs. look, this is new territory. >> he never had a good debate opponent, either. nobody on the stage that's good. >> that is right. >> stay on the offensive is the best way to get it done. >> speaking of the elite readia and the republicans' disdain for the elite media, especially in south carolina, nbc news has had campaign embed reporters covering the campaign since last summer. the scrappiest people in all of mainstream news, let's check in with several of them now, starting with alex moe, covering the gingrich campaign. what are you hearing tonight? >> well newt was very busy today. i was all business for the former house speaker. he had six stops across the upstate region. and that's triple the number of any other campaigns today. we're still actually at his last event. just wrapping up now. at whiteberg's giant burger in lauren, south carolina. all of these events have been so well attended. you can just sense that he's in a good mood, he's been joking with the crowd. at this event just now, even his wife, calista spoke for a few minutes, saying they haven't met a single mean person in south carolina. they've really enjoyed their time down here. and seems ready to launch the campaign on to florida. believe if he wins here tonight, which he thinks he will, he will be the republican nominee, based on what history has shown in the past. >> alex moe embedded with the gingrich campaign and let's go to garrett hake, covering the romney campaign. what are the romney folks telling you today? >> they were significantly less busy than alex and the gingrich campaign today. two events this morning and romney did his laundry and went to a movie. these folks have said all along they don't feel that south carolina is state they have to win. romney used to never bring up his rivals on the stump. yesterday and today, unprompted starting to bring up questions about newt gingrich. should he release records of his conversations with fannie mae and freddie mac. i think they're starting to see this narrow to the two-person race as we go into florida. next to anthony tyrell, who is covering the ron paul campaign. i've been following you on twitter so i know that the paul events have had a lot of energy, what are you hearing from them today? >> the ron paul campaign is telling me that ron paul feels great about today. no matter what the results are, he's going to continue to go forward. senior sources told me last night in a a newt gingrich, or if rick santorum does well in the state, it's a win for ron paul, because it denies mitt romney the delegates needed to go forward. the ron paul campaign thinks this is a two-man race between their candidate and mitt romney. and they blut that newt gingrich and rick santorum don't have the infrastructure to go forward and win the nomination. >> appreciate it anthony. finally, andrew referty is covering the rick san dorm campaign. what are you hearing tonight? >> well, rachel right now i'm at the citadel in columbia, i'm story, charleston, south carolina, about two hours from columbia. where most candidates are having a victory party. it was an event at the citadel where rick santorum said for the first time yesterday he was starting to feel a surge and momentum. he admitted earlier in the week he wasn't feeling that way. but really, since he got to the palmetto state, he's been tampering down expectations, saying that this is a state where newt gingrich has played hard for, he doesn't expect to be able to gain that much support. but that they're only looking for momentum going forward, going into florida. rachel? >> andrew rafrty embedded with the santorum campaign. when we return, our first numbers from the exit polling. a look at who's turning out in south carolina. there's been a tornado watch over number of counties in south carolina, there's been some inclement weather. we'll be looking at the exit polls to find out who braved it. plus nbc news political director chuck todd will be joining us and we'll be hearing from supporters from the campaign. [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool if you took the top down on a crossover? if there were buttons for this? wouldn't it be cool if your car could handle the kids... ♪ ...and the nurburgring? or what if you built a car in tennessee that could change the world? yeah, that would be cool. nissan. innovation for today. innovation for tomorrow. innovation for all. ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm. for half the calories plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. mid grade dark roast forest fresh full tank brain freeze cake donettes rolling hot dogs bag of ice anti-freeze wash and dry diesel self-serve fix a flat jumper cables 5% cashback right now, get 5% cashback at gas stations. it pays to discover. ♪ what started as a whisper every day, millions of people choose to do the right thing. there's an insurance company that does that, too. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? happy saturday, thanks for being with us, welcome back to msnbc's live coverage of the south carolina primary. polls will be closing statewide at 7:00 p.m. eastern. we've got our first look at the exit polling from south carolina. and for that we turn to tam rin hall. >> nbc news has been interviewing south carolina republican primary voters all day and it is clear. this is an overwhelmingly conservative elect are the, 37% call themselves very conservative. nearly 32% describe themselves as somewhat conservative. 31% say they are moderate or liberal. what was on the minds of voters today as they went to the polls? south carolina has one of the worst unemployment rates in the nation. about 10%. and republican primary voters expressed great concern about the economy. and in fact, 78% said they were very worried about the direction the economy is going in in the next few years. so it may not come as a surprise, that 61% said the top issue on their minds today, the economy. that's what mattered mote in their vote today. another big concern is electability, the ability to beat barack obama. nearly half, 45% said that was the quality that mattered most to them today. and finally, with so much breaking news insouth carolina this week, we found quite a few voters on the fence until the last minute. take a look, more than half, 53% said they decided who to vote for in the last few days. some of them, just today. we'll be watching closely to see how much of a difference the late deciders make in the republican primary. rachel? >> fascinating numbers. the number of voters describing themselves as very conservative, it was 34% in 2008. that's now up to 37%. no surprise that most, most voters saying the economy is their top concern. it's interesting, 45% saying the ability to win in the general election is the way they were deciding tonight. it was those voters among whom mitt romney did best in 2008. he got spanked in 2008 in south carolina. he only got 15% of the vote. the people he did best with were the people who said they were voting based on who they thought could win the general. let's check in with our nbc news political director, chuck todd with what he's watching for tonight. >> the beauty of south carolina is that it's pretty easy to follow returns, and get an idea of who can win the more conservative candidate or the more moderate candidate. south carolina is sort of two primaries, if you will. four years ago, mccoin, the more moderate candidate won because the conservative vote was split. 33% was a winning number. that's what the romney strategy was, hoping the low 30s would be a winning number. geographically the way to watch the returns tonight if you look from four years ago, the darker yellow here, huckabee counties, the upstate, greenville, the largest republican area, if you will, with the most republican primary voters. he did well there, but it was splinternd and he