collapsing. a surge in momentum for newt gingrich, being driven by a ton of super pac money and by those debates. >> more people have been put on food stamps by barack obama than any president in american history. >> she says you asked her, sir, to enter into an open marriage. would you like to take some time to respond to that? >> no, but i will. >> 16 days after the iowa caucuses, mitt romney, it turns out, did not win there. >> we actually won the iowa caucuses yesterday. >> people of south carolina, have a job to do. >> in 2008, john mccain won south carolina, when fred thompson split the right flank with mike huckabee. will a santorum/gingrich split on the right tonight resurrect mitt romney's chances. >> if you think china's better or rash's better or cuba's better or north korea's better, i'm glad to hear all about it. america's right and you're wrong. >> two x factors in the race, the long-shot, long-haul candidacy of ron paul. and the independent vote. >> i want you to vote for herman cain. because herman cain is me. >> what will be the roam of independents and even democrats turning out into today's open republican primary? the republican contest is as unsettled as it has ever been at this point in the process. south carolina tonight is more critical than it's ever been to the outcome. msnbc's coverage of the south carolina 2012 republican primary begins right now. >> good evening if our msnbc headquarters here in new york city, i'm rachel maddow, alongside our panel for tonight. republican strategist, steve schmidt, the chief strategist within the mccain campaign four years ago and the host of "the he had show" on msnbc, ed schultz. lawrence o'donnell, the host of the "last word" on msnbc. and the former presidential candidate, the reverend al sharpton. chris mauttthews is with us fro tampa, florida. >> i think everyone paying attention can see what this fight's about. mitt romney is the usual republican front-runner. the usual candidate positioned on snrt right to win the nomination and compete in the general election. he's polished, practiced, ready to serve. he is to put it succinctly, serviceable. but this is not the usual year. the quest this time is about passion, anger, it's about attitude, contempt, it's personal. it's to beat obama. beat him in the debate. beat him historically. it is to remove him from the scene of presidential politics. and this is the role for which newt gingrich is warming up for, with his rivals, news people, with anyone willing to stand up with him on a platform. to beat obama, to begin with by beating him on national televise. the only way, only way mitt romney can rob republicans of this spectacle, of gingrich against obama is a, keep gingrich off the stage by eventually as soon as possible, actually, cutting off debates. and two, spending every nickel that mitt romney can raise in a national campaign of negative advertising designed to destroy newt gingrich. this is a fascinating year in which gingrich owns the stage and mitt romney owns everything else. what a night. we're going to see tonight. >> you're exactly right, i mean the thing that, the thing that is inevitable after tonight, is no matter what happens tonight, florida is about to start filling up with money. in terms of what happens in the next race. thank you, chris, i want to bring in our panel here tonight, guys. i have to say, a week ago, i was not all that psyched for covering the south carolina primary. now i feel like i wish i could do it twice. >> i would like to get the night off. i begged, please, you don't need me, come on, it's predictable. >> south carolina is often amazing, what happened in 2008, steve you were there. was that john mccain won narrowly in south carolina. i find it very interesting that john mccain, that night, in south carolina, four years ago, did not win among registered republican voters. he won because he had this very large margin against independents and the few democrats who turned out, it was less than one in five of the voters who turned out. but he had a big-enough margin among them that he could dwroefr come mike huckabee, mike huckabee split the right vote with fred thompson. is there a john mccainenesque path. could he split enough of the right. >> one of the things you're look at tonight, if rick santorum can get up to 25% of the vote, may be. but if you look at the totality of all poll numbers, what they show is a total collapse for mitt romney in the state of south carolina. it looks heading into this evening that newt gingrich is going to win there. five short days ago, it looked like tonight was going to be the night that mitt romney went 3-0 in the first three contests. and really effectively ended the republican contest. now tonight, it's wide open and it looks for the fist time ever, you'll have three different winners in the first three contests. >> it will be 1-2 instead of 3-0. >> we're going to find out if south carolina is the land of redemption and all sins forgiven for newt gingrich. we may not see a big coalescing behind one, but we might see a guy entrenched in southern politics pull it out tonight. on the other hand, has there ever been a candidate with so much money and so much infrastructure who has run for president for so long, have such a terrible week as mitt romney? such poor advice from what to say on the stump and how to handle people -- you could arguably say heckling him. to the tax issue. to poor debates, i mean it's like he just got on the campaign trail and didn't know how to handle any of this stuff. >> was this a week that gingrich won or that romney lost. >> it's a romney loss, it's a romney collapse and gingrich was there and he was there with the right move when the collapse came. to ed's point about money, think we have seen this before. we saw it in this campaign, rick perry came in with even more money than romney and collapsed instantaneously, i pronounced his candidacy dead after the first debate and he proceeded to do that. phil graham coming out of texas many years ago was the massive, money bags that was going to show up in new hampshire, republican again, complete collapse. so this may be, if we see the romney collapse continue, we may be seeing a failure of big money politics. a profound and important failure of big money politics. and what it's failing to do is what we would want it to fail to, the importance of debates. the importance of that free moment on television where every candidate, including al sharpton when he was a candidate, can stand up there and say, this is why you should vote for me. if that's what, what wins an election here, we should all be happy about it. >> it is those debate performances plus a ton of super pac money tearing down romney. it's two-pronged -- >> incomparable, the romney money compared to the money against romney is incomparable. it's a mess all over the place. but if debates win it, we should all applaud debates win it. >> i don't think the debate -- >> as a candidate, the mistakes on the stump, the mistakes in the debates, i mean a guy so infrastructured into running for president, wow. >> i don't think, though, that gingrich is running and possibly winning tonight because in the debates he's talking about why you should vote for me. he's selling, i'm the guy that will be the most confrontational with president obama. i think that the thing we must keep in mind tonight, is the difference in '08 is in '08, we were replacing an incumbent republican, george bush. what is driving the vote tonight, is who's going to go up against president obama. and given a lot of hostility in the republican voters is who is going to be the meanest and the most brutal to barack obama. and newt gingrich seems to understand that. better than the rest. because he plays that. the way his demagogued this. the other thing i think we need to watch with money, rick perry stepped out of this, who had huge money. the question is if gingrich pulls this off tonight, does some of the perry money guys go to gingrich and head into florida? >> we did see one of the perry guys, right out after perry got out and endorsed gingrich, one of the perry guys went to romney. >> so the last money, the last point you must remember is not only, and i agree with ed, was romney terrible in the debates, and other things, he lost his inevitability. when have you ever heard a couple of days before a primary, you find out you lost the first caucus, that everybody thought you won? so not only are you not inevitable. you're not even the winner of the first race you came into south carolina with. >> in case any of our viewers have been in a hyperbaric chamber the past week, can we have a little bit of what newt gingrich has been running on this week? >> every person in here has had someone close to them go through painful things. to take an ex-wife, and make it two days before the primary, a significant question, of a presidential campaign, is as close to despicable, as anything i can imagine. >> despicable! newt gingrich there turned not only his three marriages and his ex-wife saying to him that he was lying to her while giving sanctity of marriage speeches, turned it into a net positive for himself. >> it's an acting performance worthy of meryl streep, and it's remarkable, and it worked, it's effective. the problem for republicans is this and what makes newt gingrich different from mitt romney, when you look at the general election is he is massively unpopular with the american people. newt gingrich lass a staggering level of you know, his favorable to unfavorable ratio is massively upside-down. he's known by 100% of the people. so there's a consequence for republicans, potentially of putting someone into a general election against barack obama who has a favorable ratio of some 30% and unfavorable ratio of 50-plus%. >> chris, you want to jump in on this? >> this is the thing, steve's right and everybody is right. i want to concur with that, in politics or in warfare, the most effective strategy is the attack from a defensive position. you saw with ronald reagan against jimmy carter. "there you go again." the crowd will root for the guy or woman who comes back from what looks like an unfair attack, always. so all newt had to do was wait for that time, either from juan williams or jon king, knowing it was coming, praying it was coming and then come back with the righteous indignation. the public automatically roots for the person who looks like they're simply defending who they are. and it's almost like the right or wrong of what was being talked about is irrelevant. it's tactical and newt knows the game. it was brilliantly executed. as steve points out, it's part acting, part true self-defense. and the emotions seemed to be there. and it's never there with mr. romney like that. where it seems like the person leaping out of the suit coat and responding in self-defense. >> and think about where the gingrich campaign would be tonight, if jon king had decided, you know what, i think marriage is out of bounds for a presidential debate. i'm not going to ask about it. >> or if jon king had said, i'm not going to ask this like i'm prying, i'm going to ask you about your hypocrisy. >> newt would have found something else to jump on. you must understand, the people in that audience feel that the so phantom elite liberal media looks at them a certain way. if will and romney had fought back when they brought up taxes of bain in the same spread, they would have cleared for him. they identify with this underdog, we're fighting against them and newt gingrich understands that better than the rest on the stage. >> and the people in south carolina don't like the media. they love to target that. the other thing is you talk about debates, lawrence, newt hasn't had a bad one. newt hasn't had a gaffe. he hasn't had a gaffe. he hasn't been not ready for an answer. when he goes out and talks to people on the stump, the guy knows his stuff. he's been around politics, he knows all ins and outs. look, this is new territory. >> he never had a good debate opponent, either. nobody on the stage that's good. >> that is right. >> stay on the offensive is the best way to get it done. >> speaking of the elite readia and the republicans' disdain for the elite media, especially in south carolina, nbc news has had campaign embed reporters covering the campaign since last summer. the scrappiest people in all of mainstream news, let's check in with several of them now, starting with alex moe, covering the gingrich campaign. what are you hearing tonight? >> well newt was very busy today. i was all business for the former house speaker. he had six stops across the upstate region. and that's triple the number of any other campaigns today. we're still actually at his last event. just wrapping up now. at whiteberg's giant burger in lauren, south carolina. all of these events have been so well attended. you can just sense that he's in a good mood, he's been joking with the crowd. at this event just now, even his wife, calista spoke for a few minutes, saying they haven't met a single mean person in south carolina. they've really enjoyed their time down here. and seems ready to launch the campaign on to florida. believe if he wins here tonight, which he thinks he will, he will be the republican nominee, based on what history has shown in the past. >> alex moe embedded with the gingrich campaign and let's go to garrett hake, covering the romney campaign. what are the romney folks telling you today? >> they were significantly less busy than alex and the gingrich campaign today. two events this morning and romney did his laundry and went to a movie. these folks have said all along they don't feel that south carolina is state they have to win. romney used to never bring up his rivals on the stump. yesterday and today, unprompted starting to bring up questions about newt gingrich. should he release records of his conversations with fannie mae and freddie mac. i think they're starting to see this narrow to the two-person race as we go into florida. next to anthony tyrell, who is covering the ron paul campaign. i've been following you on twitter so i know that the paul events have had a lot of energy, what are you hearing from them today? >> the ron paul campaign is telling me that ron paul feels great about today. no matter what the results are, he's going to continue to go forward. senior sources told me last night in a a newt gingrich, or if rick santorum does well in the state, it's a win for ron paul, because it denies mitt romney the delegates needed to go forward. the ron paul campaign thinks this is a two-man race between their candidate and mitt romney. and they blut that newt gingrich and rick santorum don't have the infrastructure to go forward and win the nomination. >> appreciate it anthony. finally, andrew referty is covering the rick san dorm campaign. what are you hearing tonight? >> well, rachel right now i'm at the citadel in columbia, i'm story, charleston, south carolina, about two hours from columbia. where most candidates are having a victory party. it was an event at the citadel where rick santorum said for the first time yesterday he was starting to feel a surge and momentum. he admitted earlier in the week he wasn't feeling that way. but really, since he got to the palmetto state, he's been tampering down expectations, saying that this is a state where newt gingrich has played hard for, he doesn't expect to be able to gain that much support. but that they're only looking for momentum going forward, going into florida. rachel? >> andrew rafrty embedded with the santorum campaign. when we return, our first numbers from the exit polling. a look at who's turning out in south carolina. there's been a tornado watch over number of counties in south carolina, there's been some inclement weather. we'll be looking at the exit polls to find out who braved it. plus nbc news political director chuck todd will be joining us and we'll be hearing from supporters from the campaign. 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south carolina has one of the worst unemployment rates in the nation. about 10%. and republican primary voters expressed great concern about the economy. and in fact, 78% said they were very worried about the direction the economy is going in in the next few years. so it may not come as a surprise, that 61% said the top issue on their minds today, the economy. that's what mattered mote in their vote today. another big concern is electability, the ability to beat barack obama. nearly half, 45% said that was the quality that mattered most to them today. and finally, with so much breaking news insouth carolina this week, we found quite a few voters on the fence until the last minute. take a look, more than half, 53% said they decided who to vote for in the last few days. some of them, just today. we'll be watching closely to see how much of a difference the late deciders make in the republican primary. rachel? >> fascinating numbers. the number of voters describing themselves as very conservative, it was 34% in 2008. that's now up to 37%. no surprise that most, most voters saying the economy is their top concern. it's interesting, 45% saying the ability to win in the general election is the way they were deciding tonight. it was those voters among whom mitt romney did best in 2008. he got spanked in 2008 in south carolina. he only got 15% of the vote. the people he did best with were the people who said they were voting based on who they thought could win the general. let's check in with our nbc news political director, chuck todd with what he's watching for tonight. >> the beauty of south carolina is that it's pretty easy to follow returns, and get an idea of who can win the more conservative candidate or the more moderate candidate. south carolina is sort of two primaries, if you will. four years ago, mccoin, the more moderate candidate won because the conservative vote was split. 33% was a winning number. that's what the romney strategy was, hoping the low 30s would be a winning number. geographically the way to watch the returns tonight if you look from four years ago, the darker yellow here, huckabee counties, the upstate, greenville, the largest republican area, if you will, with the most republican primary voters. he did well there, but it was splinternd and he didn't have a huge margin. mccain did very have well across the coast, think charleston and myrtle beach. translate the numbers to four years later, that's where mitt romney has to be doing well. not just winning the counties, that most expect him to do, but winning them with large margins, he has to hope he cuts the margin a little bit with where newt could do well, greenville and spartanburg, where mote of the vote is the best swing area to watch for is lexington county, it's right outside of columbia, in the center of the state. the winner of the county goes on to match the statewide totals those will the three ways to watch the returns tonight. the coast, upstate, the conservative primary, the margins matter a lot and that's the way to follow these returns tonight, rachel. >> chuck, thank you, i guess that explains why newt grin grich did six events upstate as we were tearing from the embed with the gingrich campaign. >> let's go to chris matthews now. >> i'm here at the site of this monday's nbc debate, which will be carried here on msnbc. moderated by brian williams. a couple things, it looks to me looking at the numbers we got from tamrun hall, 70% of the electora electorate, doesn't that mean that that person will have an advantage? >> they will have an advantage. if newt is able to begin the coalescing around him, conservatives feel after the performance in the last debate this guy's ready to go toe to toe in november, you can see this thing break as you go out of south carolina into florida and other states. you've got a bunch of caucuses coming up, that's going to play well, very much obviously for ron paul. but newt is going to be able to play there effectively as well. >> so again the question, if it does become a two-person debate at some point, will there be enough money, i've always thought, as i said a half hour ago, that newt gingrich controls the stage. but romney controls the rest. but if newt gingrich proves tonight he can control not just the stage but win here, does he get the money to equal romney's? >> i think he does and i think he begins to grab a little of the rest. it starts with the moneyed conservatives around the country will take a look at the race and they will respond on sunday morning with going to his website and writing a check. and i think that's what newt is counting on. and coming out of here strong, with a four or five-point edge over romney puts him in the position over the next ten days to go into florida and have some fun. >> is florida still what we call the big decider here? >> that's a good question. and the reality of it is with the rule change that we put in place in 2010, technically, they shouldn't be. because they broke the rule, they jumped the line. so their delegates should be proportional. if they are, that changes the status. >> two points you made, 70% still matters and romney is on the wrong side of that. and the money will go to the person who gets 70% against romney. exciting stuff. the debate monday is going to be great with brian williams, back to you. >> there was some controversy over whether or not mitt romney was going to be participating in that debate in florida. his campaign making some noises in the last few days that maybe he was feeling a little wobbly about participating in that mitt romney telling reporters today unequivocally that he will be there. not only is the debate on, but mitt romney will be there. and boy, depending 0en what happens tonight, it might be the most important debate yet. we'll get back to our panel here in new york. plus we'll hear from supporters both of newt gingrich and mitt romney. msnbc's coverage of the south carolina primary continues in a moment. i had enough of feeling embarrassed about my skin. 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[ male announcer ] because enbrel suppresses your immune system, it may lower your ability to fight infections. serious, sometimes fatal, events including infections, tuberculosis, lymphoma, other cancers, and nervous system and blood disorders have occurred. before starting enbrel, your doctor should test you for tuberculosis and discuss whether you've been to a region where certain fungal infections are common. don't start enbrel if you have an infection like the flu. tell your doctor if you're prone to infections, have cuts or sores, have had hepatitis b, have been treated for heart failure, or if, while on enbrel, you experience persistent fever, bruising, bleeding, or paleness. if you've had enough, ask your dermatologist about enbrel. we have a long pos ahead of us. 1150 delegates to get. i sure would like to win south carolina. but i know if those polls were right, regardless of who gets the final number, we're both going to get a lot of delegates. so i want as many delegates as i can get, i want the most delegates coming out of south carolina. but i don't know what the numbers will be. i'm pretty confident. cautiously optimistic. >> sounding anything but confident. mitt romney trying to lower expectations for the south carolina results tonight. let me put something to you guys that michael steele just said. he just said if newt gingrich does very well tonight, he describes that as four or five points over mitt romney. that conservatives around the country will look at the newt gingrich candidacy as a viable candidacy, they will open check books and send him money. he will start getting establishment conservative support. >> he's going to need it it's a much different media market in florida. florida and south carolina are a lot alike when it comes to the housing market. when it comes to unemployment, when it comes to median income. but it's also very different. the latino vote, the cultural diversity in florida is much different than it is in south carolina. yeah, you can go to florida and find a lot of conservatives, but you're going to find 19 million people, versus a lower number of people in south carolina. florida, newt gingrich may do well tonight, but florida is division i. i mean so in earlier today, you heard mr. plenty awlenty talkint the long haul. if mitt romney is going to raise money, he's going to have to do it fast. >> florida is less evangelical, it's older in population. both of those things are good for mitt romney. here's another thing that's good for mitt romney. by monday, a very sizeable percentage of the electorate in florida will have already voted. they will have already voted before mitt romney began a collapse in south carolina, before he began to collapse in national polls. if the director of the gallup polling is to be believed. and i suspect he is. so that makes it difficult, i think for newt gingrich, structurally as you look ahead to florida. but it will become an important state. and as you look at the money over the next week, you don't need to have the most money to whip, you need to have enough money to win. think there's no question, if he wins tonight, newt gingrich is going to have enough money to compete all the way through the super tuesday states. >> you know, today is, i should say, happy birthday to citizens united. citizen united turns two today. not only are we talking about money he can raise from individual people donating to his campaign. but he's an eccentric billionaire, or some other eccentric billionaire can come on and donate a multimillion-dollar chunk of change to his super pac. so the monty can be on tap from humans and from billionaires if these guys want it, does that make campaign structure less important? >> i think the big number to stare at, the 53% in south carolina who decided just in the last few days. you get a pretty good feel about which way they are deciding after that gingrich win in the debate. and then the 45% who say electability is the most important issue. that's the issue tonight. the issue tonight i think for gingrich is, does his number in whatever he scores here, how much harm does it do? to romney's inevitability as the leader on electability. romney always comes out as the top in the electability question among republicans can. that be changed in any way? and if that changes, steve, that's what makes me wonder, more than anything else, what the possible gingrich momentum can be going forward. because that's the thing you've got to shake on romney, is the electability and that's the thing you have to convince people about gingrich. >> i think if he loses tonight, romney, he loses some of that. because if i'm gingrich, i go into the debate monday and i've been on that stage and say, you lost iowa after you said you did. you lost in south carolina, what makes you inevitable? you couldn't beat rick santorum. and if he starts chipping away at that i think that willard has a real problem. i don't think it's going to be an easy fight for gingrich. but i think he'll rough it up. and i'm curious, steve, what you think willard went to see at the movies today. his hotel would have 0 brought a dvd of "wall street" to his room. >> movies and laundry? >> he was way more productive than i was today. >> when you're in the situation in a primary tonight, when you fall apart like this, they're counting down the hours until the plane takes off and lands in florida and get out of the state never to return. >> he's just sitting there, going florida, florida, florida. >> are you saying he won't be the nominee, when you say never to return? >> never to return to south carolina. we'll see how he does tonight, but he did 15% there in 2008. coming up in the next half hour we're going to be hearing from a key romney supporter in south carolina. plus, how the super pacs are helping newt gingrich this time around. polls will be closed in south carolina at the top of the hour, msnbc's coverage of the south carolina primary continues in a minute. so, this is delicious okay... is this where we're at now, we just eat whatever tastes good? 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>> thanks, rachel. i'm here with howard fineman. and howard has been covering this race like a bandit. we had michael steele sitting in that chair saying if there is a big victory tonight for example by one of the challengers to romney, newt gingrich, he as the more conservative candidate, the more angry candidate will be able to go out in country and raise enough money to challenge mitt romney down the road. what do you think? >> talking to people in the romney campaign, they think not. they think florida and beyond in the month of february is going to be their time to show that their organization, that their financial strength, their ability to go back to their people will win the day. that newt will trip up somewhere. that newt's 23409 well-organized enough to play in a big field. it's one thing to do iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. limited time, limited space. you can build a sense of surging momentum in one quick place with free media. in florida, and then in states beyond, so the romney people think. they're going to have the money to play everywhere with paid advertising. i think they underestimate newt gingrich's ability to command the airwaves with free media his ability to make news at all times. his ability to be irresistible copy for us and for television. but that's what the romney people are thinking. >> i don't know if he could pull this off as kind of a vaudeville act. every time he agrees to news reporter's interview on any network, any network. he turns it into a fight. with the media. can he keep doing this gig over and over? >> no, but newt is much more creative than that. i've covered him forever. he will think of seminars he will think of his own little conventions, he will think of other media events that we will be required to cover to listen to newt gingrich expound on the issues and attack barack obama. and he's a master at getting free attention. not just by attacking the media, he will now having gotten where he's gotten by attacking us, he's now going to figure out how to use us to get free media he'll pick fights with other people, he will challenge other people. he'll talk about taxes, he'll talk about mitt romney about taxes from now until the cowboys come home. >> it's good news for cable television. we'll watch this fist fight out there. rachel, this will be the fist fight ongoing. from now until the end of spring. fascinating to cover for republicans who aren't usually that frisky. back to you, rachel. >> i appreciate it, chris. i have have say that if newt gingrich had not been in this position right now, i as a cable news person would be trying to conjure him out of dust so we could have somebody like this to talk b. curtis loftus is the state treasurer for south carolina and the chairman for mitt romney's campaign. your candidate, a week ago had a big lead in south carolina. polls across the board showing him with double-digit leads in the state over the course of the past week, that is no longer the case. and he, in the polls heading into today, seems now to be trailing newt gingrich. it's been a precipitous fall. we in the news media have all of our own explanations for why that might have happened. in the romney campaign in south carolina, how do you explain it? what do you think happened? >> well, i think there's a lot of volatility. and we've expected this. when i became state chairman back in august, we were looking for a third-place finish. now we're worried about whether we're first or not. so we've exceeded our expectations in this red state. it's the reddest of red states. i'm a member of the tea party, i'm an evangelical christian, we're supposed to be the folks who won't vote for romney, but we have. this sets him up for the rest of the trail. there's a long way to go and we're ideally positioned for that. >> let me ask you about one issue that's been an unexpected difficulty for mr. romney this week and that is the very predictable question of his tax returns. governor romney has gone from saying he doesn't intend to release his tax returns, to saying he would consider it. to saying he's not opposed to it. to saying he would probably do it. to now finally saying he will do it, but ice not sure how many years. why wasn't there a clear position from the campaign on this from the get-go? it seems that you've made it more of an issue than anybody else could, simply by the candidate changing his mind so many times. >> i think that the original plan was for him to release it in april. which is when generally the candidates do that. i think they were caught flat-footed this week. they hadn't thought about it, they were going to do it in april and they could have handled it better. i don't think that's as big an issue with real-life people as it is with the media. no one likes their taxes, no one likes to pay and no one understands how to do their taxes. i don't think it had that much of an effect. >> let me ask you, this is al sharpton. do you think the fact that you have over 9% unemployment in south carolina, you also even though, you say the state's coming up are going to be easier for your candidate, but you do have economic problems in florida, in nevada, and in going forward. as long as he has his image of being a guy that may not be paying the same percentage of taxes than others, the bain controversy, that he's mr. wall street, how do you counter that going forward? and don't you think that might have hurt him in your state with the unemployment as high as it is? >> no, i don't think that was, you know, that's a smoke sscree. we like free enterprise, we like capitalism, i've been fairly successful and i would like to be more successful. >> i'm talking about the fairness issue. everybody likes successful. we're talking about whether it seemed to be unfair. >> that's right. and anybody that pays their taxes legally should be proud of that and he does that. he didn't set the tax rates. in fact if he becomes the president, he would have a whole lot more say about that. you know the tax code has been around for a long time. there are a lot of democrats, a lot of republicans and a lot of those folks are still in office and they've all had a hand in that. so you know, we pay what we're supposed to pay and that's how it works. that will be a big issue in the general election. any republican that comes out of the primary as the nominee is going to be hit with that. this one versus 100 thing will be out there. you know, i travel, i've driven across the country 20 times in my life. and i've never met anybody who didn't like the idea of free enterprise and the idea of being successful. i'm not ever going to run from that. >> i'ming did going to ask you with your tea party hat, how you were able get over the fact that mitt romney imposed a individual health policy. that mitt romney said it's a good thing for massachusetts. but he want to repeal the obama individual mandate that is now in law. should he be saying something about actually repealing it in massachusetts? >> i love your home state. i've spent a lot of time in where i'm the only conservative there. when you start looking i'm the only conservative republican, baptist evangelical all of cape cod. so i know what it's like to be in a liberal state. massachusetts is a great state and this is a solution for them. you know, i'm a states rights kind of guy. i think we should all be able to do what our state says is best for us. i believe him, he's told me on the bus he's going to do everything he can to repeal obama care. and i believed him. i looked him in the eye and tells it to me and i don't have any doubt that will be the first thing he does. >> south carolina state treasurer, chairman of the romney campaign in the state, we're happy to have this time with you tonight, good luck and thanks for being with us. >> when we return, how the super pacs are really helping newt gingrich's campaign. polls will be closing in south carolina in just a few minutes at the top of the hour. we'll have our first characterization of the race there in a few minutes. our coverage of the south carolina primary continues after this. 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polls in south carolina will be closed at the top of the hour. less than ten minutes from right now. we will be able to give you our first characterization of the race when the polls close in just a few minutes. we've talked a lot about the super pacs and in the battle for south carolina, the pre-gingrich super pac, winning our future, has been a major player. joining us on the birthday of citizens united is nbc's michael isikoff from washington. >> yes, look, if the big story tonight is newt gingrich's comeback, one big reason is that super pac winning our future, the gingrich super pac -- >> that's some sort of conspiracy, the with isikoff's microphone. am i trending on twitter yet. we're going to be able to, can we go back to mike right now, do we have it fixed? okay. we can't start that, okay. on the subject of the super pacs, what was fascinating to me about the super pac spending is in new hampshire, almost all of the negative ads were against newt gingrich. in south carolina it was evenly split between newt gingrich and mitt romney. as much as everybody complains about the super pacs and everybody complains about negative advertising, i don't know of any more powerful force in politics than the negative ad. does the negative ad spending against romney in south carolina, partly explain what happened in terms of his collapsing numbers? or, lawrence you're arguing almost all the debates? >> i wasn't, certainly the debates were a factor. when you look at the timing of what seems to be the moves in the polling, there were polls that were going on literally over the space of the debate. and like in the same poll, the day after the debates showed dramatically different numbers from the day before the debate. and so there's evidence of that. but to sort out exactly what the effect of each of these things was. everybody has been saying who is in south carolina is that the television advertising is in overwhelming and my cousins in south carolina are being drowned by it. so it's definitely a factor. absolutely. >> with the money, newt gingrich is the master of the messaging, as howard fineman was pointing to it. he knows the notes to hit. he talks about if this guy can't debate me, how is he going to debate barack obama. he puts it in simple terms quickly for people to grasp. he's always been able to do that. >> and he's not doing it from index cards, he's not doing it from a staff. right before the debate saying hey, newt, this and this. i would love to see his debate prep. i bet it's a half an hour of just kind of pausing. >> my favorite thing on the negative ads. a 59-year-old office administer in south carolina says last night i was trying to watchmond, i was like, i just want to watch steph steven tyler, i don't care that they're all a bunch of big fat liars, i just want to see a coffee commercial at this point. >> going back to what chris and howard said earlier, what is an important point in presidential campaigns, the free media narrative is so much more important than the ad buys in a presidential race. it's what makes a presidential race unique from all the other types of races. now, that being said, since newt gingrich has been able to be up on the air and he's been able to be punching at romney, romney has gone to his knees really quickly. and i think the frame that newt gingrich has put on the race, that he's a massachusetts moderate, has been an effective frame and i think it's a big problem for mitt romney as you look forward to the rest of these contests, where as chris pointed out, i think this is right. because newt gingrich has as many conservative apostles as does mitt romney. but the conservatism is being defined by the tone, by the anger, by the fight he wants to take to president obama. and i think to the degree that the conservative candidate is defined by tone, that's just a big advantage for newt gingrich going forward. >> polls will be closed in south carolina at 7:00 p.m. eastern, which is just moments from now. when we return, we'll be able to get the first characterization of the race. this is very exciting. msnbc's coverage of the system system primary continues in just a moment. this is the important part next, stay with us. i had enough of feeling embarrassed about my skin. 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>> chris in terms of the historic nature of this victory tonight, obviously it has never before happened that iowa, new hampshire and south carolina have been won by three different republicans. that's never happened before. we've seen incredible volatility throughout this race. even as mitt romney has held on to his status as the guy who everybody thinks is most likely to end up with the nomination. what do you think explains this historic volaty?aw in the prese all last year, the same volatility. we call it the flavor of the month. there was a new candidate popping up. remember the insanity of last year? i mean that objectively. where you saw donald trump as the front-runner. you saw michele bachmann as a front-runner. you saw a fellow coming out of georgia, a businessman with no political experience as a front-runner. saw this happening month after month. this pattern we saw in the preseason has come into the regular season, the regulation, if you will. so it does follow a pattern. but historically my brain takes me back to that very unstable year of 1964, when you saw henry cabot lodge winning in new hampshire and rockefeller winning in oregon and goldwater coming in because of a marital problem involving the rockefeller family, giving goldwater the break in california. very unhappy nomination that year, not a good successful year in picking a candidate. i see this year as an unstable pattern. i do see a shift now clearly to the right. i think newt has grabbed the, the attention of the republican electorate. and i think he's going to hold it for a while. for the next couple of weeks. i think this debate in this room on monday night with brian williams is going to be red hot. i think the country is going to be watching it. and i think it's going to be about whether romney can grab back the standard of the republican party. i'll say it the third time, he has to move to the right to do it. that means the right has won here in south carolina big-time. >> chris mamts, thank you. nbc's embedded reporter alex moe is on board the newt gingrich campaign bus. alex, can you give us a little sense of the reaction among the gingrich campaign to the news they've won in south carolina tonight? >> actually right now i'm on the campaign press bus which is just in front of where the actual campaign is traveling. we're actually stuck in traffic coming from our last event of the day, to the victory party. we're still about an hour away from columbia, where newt gingrich is supposed to be speaking in just under an hour. but you know the campaign was really hoping for this win tonight. they, we could see it, we could sense it all day. the press that was traveling with him. he was in such high spirits. he really wanted to win here. this was his kind of do or die state. he's been saying all along thalt president is always the person that wins in south carolina. so just based on the reaction that we've seen, you know, he kind of had a sense, i think at the end there, that he was going to pull it out so we expect him to be very happy and give you know one of his good speeches tonight. and just say, you know, we're going on to florida and that's where we're going next. >> alex let me ask you about the last point you made. this is a vanity victory if it does not translate into momentum to win other states. into making him a more viable candidate. have you seen any signs of a real organizational shift in focus from the gingrich campaign toward future contests? toward florida, toward nevada? toward what's coming up? are you getting a separates that they've got what it takes to put together real victories in upcoming states? >> i think newt gingrich has the stamina to do it we've been having six, seven events a day all throughout the three early states. and we sense that we're going to be doing it all throughout florida. he did make a stop down in florida earlier in the week to do some fundraising to hold a couple of events there. we have been looking forward to some of the other states. we know that there's already some events scheduled in nevada. the first week of february. so it does seem that they are looking ahead. but this really was the place where they felt they needed to win to give them that momentum and to allow them to start doing more fundraising. we all know that florida you need money to be able to compete there and i think that's where they're going to start looking after tonight. >> alex moe talking to us from the gingrich campaign bus. john napeer served in the united states congress alongside newt gingrich. he's a republican from south carolina and is now backing mr. gingrich for president. congressman, i have to say, congratulations. and tell us what you expect from the campaign moving forward this is your chance to shove down your critics who say that the gingrich campaign can't compete in florida. do you think they can? >> thank you very much. absolutely. this is a launching pad to florida. this is a coalescing of the social conservatives, the economic conservatives. the business community. the national security community. this is exactly what ronald reagan did in 1980. and ronald reagan went on to become the greatest president of our generation. >> in south carolina, with newt gingrich polling the victory from behind, we saw more than half or roughly half of voters today saying they decided just in the last few days. what do you think explains the last-minute momentum for mr. gingrich? was it the debate performances or were there other things going on in the campaign that we couldn't see so clearly from a national lens? >> well absolutely. it was the debate performances and it was a clear understanding of the most port parn of politics, how do you activate the momentum. president bush used to call it the big mo, and there's an understanding that newt gingrich has, of the political process. the history of the political process. the applicability of it that really is understated by everyone. he, he knows what this country needs. he is a leader who knows how to think out of the box. and how to put it in historical context to make his leadership work. >> john, this is ed schultz. florida has been somewhat of a fickle state. we have seen rick perry lead in september. we have seen herman cain lead in october. we've seen newt gingrich lead in december and now we see mitt romney leading with a whole heck of a lot more money spent already in florida. how does this change things for newt gingrich? i mean, how does this help him going into florida, if he doesn't have the money and it's been a fickle state? does that matter? >> i think newt gingrich has the infrastructure, he has former attorney general, bill mccullum leading his effort there. he has a staff there that's very, very savvy and knows florida and knows what's going on in that state. and he will raise the money. newt gingrich, this is his launching pad. here in south carolina. >> hi, congressman, steve schmidt. >> they said the same thing about ronald reagan back in the early stages of his kpcampaign. >> that was precitizens united. respectfully, that was precitizens united. the money that romney has far exceeds what newt gingrich has right now. you think he can make up that much money that fast? >> well none of these candidates have the money under precitizens united. that is money that is not controlled by the candidates. but i think you'll see just as much enthusiasm for newt gingrich as you now see that is waning for governor romney. >> congressman, steve schmidt hee, congratulations on the victory tonight. >> thank you so much. >> newt gingrich has 100% name i.d. across the country and has ha it for 20 years. fox news poll, he has a 27% favorable ratio to a 56% unfavorable ratio. the cbs/"new york times" poll shows speaker gingrich with a 17% favorable ratio to a nationally 49% unfavorable ratio. should somebody that unpopular, how concerning should this be to republican primary voters who are focused on wanting to beat president obama. he's one of the most massively unpopular political figures. not just now, but historically, who has ever been this far running for president. >> i would say politics is not where people are popular. very much anywhere these days. politicians are not held in the highest esteem, as you know. but newt gingrich, is a very logical very smart, leadership-oriented man. and he knows how to put all of this in context. and when it's over, newt gingrich and barack obama, i have no question as to who will be the victor. he has leadership qualities that transcend all of what you just said. >> former congressman, john napeer, a very happy newt gingrich supporter, we're thankful for your time tonight, sir, thank you for being with us and congratulations. >> thank you so much. jenny beth martin is the co-founder of the tea party patriots. she has seen a surge among tea party supporters for newt gingrich. she joins us now from charleston. jenny, thank you very much for being with us, it's nice to have you here. >> thanks for having me. >> we're hearing news in the last few minutes of the democratic party chairwoman, debby wasserman schultz celebrate the newt gingrich victory and planning on going to a party. asked if she was a supporter, she said yes. what do you make about liberals and democrats being excited about the prospect of newt gingrich going the distance? >> i think that they have to figure out how they're going to come back, if newt winds up being the romney and it's not romney. figure out how they're going to use that to fight against president obama. so you're just referencing the fox news poll, where newt isn't very well liked. and i'm sure that that's what they're banking on. but we've seen what happens when we have a president who is very well liked. president obama is, but people don't like the policies that he's had. >> do you feel like tea party voters in particular, tea party activists are start of thinking like strategists in their votes and in who they're deciding to support? they're thinking about who has the best chance of winning in the general election? or is it more about trying to move the republican party to make it more conservative, to align it more with tea party values? are people voting their heads or their hearts? >> they're not voting their ears. we lost the live shot there. >> rachel, may i point out, i just find it terribly ironic, coincidental, whatever, 15 years ago to the day, the house of representatives voted overwhelmingly to reprimand house speaker, newt gingrich and order him to pay a $300,000 penalty, the first time in the house's 208-year history it disciplined a speaker. you know, this is just an eternity of politics for newt gingrich. 15 years to the day he comes back and we see redemption, the land of redemption. and sins forgiven in south carolina. >> he's excited to make this a better day on his anniversary calendar. that will be the anniversary of the day that he won south carolina. >> it's the birthday of citizens united and newt gingrich being censored. we cannot take out of the analysis, the polarizing tone that newt gingrich used in south carolina. and i think what is going to be something to watch, he outright race-baited and i'm not bringing up race, he did. talking about blacks by name, tea party -- tea party president. we should not forget he's made a very ugly tone. and going forward, and if in fact he's the nominee, against an african-american president, he could cause one of the most divisive races in america. >> this exactly why democrats are happy tonight. this and this. meaning this kind of campaign, that he's run so far, would be a horribly destructive campaign for himself in a general election. and steve's most important statistical information of the night which is majority of the country, in every poll, a majority of the country has an unfavorable view of newt gingrich. that's a simple thing in politics. that means you cannot win a national election. it's impossible. this is exactly why the democrats wanted newt to win tonight. >> unless he can turn it around. unless he can turn it around, right. >> negatives like that have never been turned around, never. it doesn't happen. >> not never in the history of american politics for someone who has 100% name i.d. he's not been famous in american politics for a year or five years or ten years, he's been famous in american politics for the entirety of the last generation and you have 60% of the american people in total have an unfavorable view of him. it's just a remarkably high number for someone who could be the republican nominee for president. >> never is a long time. this guy knows the media, he is cagey, he is crafty. i agree with chris tonight, this is more than a southern guy winning a southern state. the next 48, 72 hours fundraising going to be critical, no doubt about it. this guy is master of the words, he's a master of how to position issues in front of the american people. he's a master at given it to you simple. making it easy for you to understand. don't bore you with the details. and i'll take you to the next subject. he has certain innate abilities on how to get free media, as howard was saying. that's what makes it so intriguing to follow this. he is is a modern day politician. he has social mediaed his way to south carolina better than anybody else. >> ed, i think that will help him during the primaries. when he gets in the ring, if he's the nominee, with a real debater and a real communicator, named barack obama, which he's not facing now. he will all of that bomb past and demagoguery, will look next to a clean glass, as dirty as it is. >> and i think -- >> you're saying its a talent issue, i'm on that. but there's a lot of people that want to see barack obama lose. and as you're saying, the tone is a big thing. >> there's a lot of people, i think what will happen is when they look and see, this is who is going to to be getting the 3:00 in the morning call, this is the guy that's going to be the commander-in-chief over the military? this is the guy that we're going to send to deal with china, i think a lot of people say i'll never go for the president, but i don't want this guy in charge of my security. >> politics is the easiest thing in the world to analyze. it's easier than the stock market or anything else. a negative number is the most powerful number that exists in the politician's life. his negative numbers that steve has just talked about, are astronomical, unprecedented, can he not win a national election. all the stuff you're talking about that has appeal, it has appeal to less than one-third of the voters. less than one-third of the voters are conservative republicans. that's who that has an appeal to. 70% aren't going to vote that. >> let me get chris matthews in here. he's been patient. >> this fight we're trying to cover here between it looks like a fight between romney. probably still the front-runner in the national polls and newt gingrich. just remember, what's interesting is the way the press plays this the national press plays this the next week or so starting monday with brian and what kind of headline comes out of that. just remember the big fight that romney has to fight now is his own problem with his tax returns. everybody knows a fact about this guy. he has tax returns. and he has refused, because he doesn't want to release them. there's nothing complicated about this. why doesn't this guy want us to know what taxes he has paid? this is the fundamental challenge of the media the next couple of weeks, is to get the story out of this guy. so the american people can get transparency on what many people believe, certainly our viewers believe, is the hottest issue of the election, the 1% issue and how they're getting along in this country, fairly or not. we have to get that out of him. at the same time he fights that war with the media he's got to fight what looks to be an ascendency by newt on the right. this will be a fascinating struggle for him. he's forced to fight a two-front war. what do you think we're going to do? i think monday our best fight from the media point of view is to fight romney on the fact that he won't release his tax returns. he won't, because he doesn't want to. because he doesn't want us to know something about him, and his role in this fight over the 1% and where they get a special advantage in this country. that's our fight. meanwhile we get to do the parade coverage of the other fight. but he has to fight both fights. i find, rachel, and everybody else and i think steve probably knows a lot about this. you keep talking about the advantages that romney has in terms of the numbers and newt's unpopularity. but what does romney do now? does he fight us? to keep his secrets about his taxes? or does he fight newt? or does he fight us both monday night? it's going to be a great spectacle. in just two days now. >> i will say that the single-most interesting and totally nonpartisan and almost nonideological point that gingrich has pressed against romney is -- you say that your tax returns won't be released because the democrats are going to be using them against you, and so you don't want release them until april when you've already locked up the nomination. that means there's something there. why won't you let republican voters see it before they have to decide on you? and that is a nonideological, nonpartisan point to which mitt romney has responded to not well up to this point. we'll check in with chuck todd to how newt gingrich put together this victory in south carolina. chuck? >> we're doing this mostly the exit polls returns are still coming in. but the size of gingrich's victory in the conservative parts of the state that i was telling you about, greenville, spartanburg in particular, he topped romney there quoting our exit polls by almost 20 points. meanwhile, where romney had a run-up the score and by the way, huckabee beat mccain in those areas anywhere five to seven four years ago. mccain kept those numbers low and of course the conservative vote was splintered and where romney had to do well, according to the exit polls, dead even, dead even in places like charleston in a more moderate, nonnative south carolina, republican voter, think country club republican, military voters, it was dead even. newt ran dead even with him among veterans and veterans is a huge chunk. the mccain coalition basically wasn't there for romney. newt cut into that in a way that, that mike huckabee couldn't do four years ago. and it just underscores the other thing. as we keep going forward, these electorates actually get more conservative. so if newt gets through, it's going to be a conservative electorate in florida. this is a closed primary. no independents will show up here this is going to be an interesting fight for the cuban-american vote down there. it might be more evenly split as far as endorsements are concerned. romney has more of them. but i want to bring up the one final point about endorsements. it's interesting, newt doesn't have any mainstream endorsements in the establishment wing of the party or when we evangelicals, they united last week behind rick santorum. i think the grassroots of the party is saying something else. we saw evidence of it in 2010 and suddenly we're seeing evidence of it a little bit with newt at least as we march forward. to the southern and the heart of the republican party. rachel? >> fascinating. thank you, chuck, i appreciate it. i will say that's why i hope we get our tea party guest back who we lost because of a live feed. nicky hailey, going way out on a limb in south carolina. she went out on a limb to support mitt romney. who now has lost in south carolina, she was already having a rough year. i'm curious as to what this is going to do to her standing among tea party republicans and republicans broadly in her state. jim demint saying that mitt romney would win south carolina. what happens to the republican electorate establishment who went out for romney. let's go back to chris matthews who is with david gregory. >> david gregory is moderator of nbc's "meet the press." he's with us from columbia, south carolina. and david, thanks for joining us. this whole question, talk about "meet the press" tomorrow morning. and what, you've got newt on, right? >> we do. we'll talk to gingrich about the race goes from here. i just picking up on what rachel is talking about, i mean governor hailey endorsing romney. there's a lot of people, republicans i talked to who said this was a mistake for the romney campaign to set up a test that romney could ultimately fail, which is what he's done. because as chuck todd and he and i have been talking throughout the night. when is romney going to pass a big conservative test. he did well with conservatives in new hampshire. where you know, they know him well and where he campaigned so hard. but he didn't do it with southern conservatives, he's going to face another test in florida. and now you have romney, in a position where he set up a test that he's failed. now reverting to a different kind of case. which is i'm the guy who can really run a campaign for the long haul. i've got money, i've got organization, i can make this a national campaign. all of that is to say, i'm the most electable. and he's even lost on that score in south carolina against newt gingrich. we will talk to gingrich tomorrow about how he thinks the race is fundamentally changed. and what he makes of the fact that this level of volatility, chris, that we have now, at the end of this week, had three different winners, of the three big contests to start this thing off. >> well newt gingrich has done good job of organizing the sort of sparring match with juan williams and jon king. i'm wondering, he has a tougher fight it seems to be not with trying to pick out fights to give himself some sort of fighting ability. which everybody enjoys, especially in the republican caucuses. but this problem with his tax returns, he's been sort of playing the four corner offense, he won't even say until this morning that he was going to debate monday night. he has been playing on this tax thing, well i might do it, in the coming april, maybe not. i don't know how many years. how important do you think that becomes in this sort of two-front war he has to fight with newt and with the media it seems over his tax returns? >> i think it's, it's a bigger issue for him generally in the campaign, rather than about it being a fight with the media. particularly in the debate. if you're gingrich, you'll say are you worried about democrats nit-picking this. what is it that you have to hide? what are you so concerned about? the fight over his wealth and the 1% as you just said a couple of minutes ago, that is going to be the debate. of the fall campaign. and if it's going to be a class warfare debate that president obama wants, well the republicans have already ushered in that debate now. so i do think he has got to address that. and he's got to address it very soon. >> one thing newt, i wouldn't ask you what to ask, but one thing newt might begin to do is to challenge the electability of mitt romney on the ground that he can't answer that question. that will make him vulnerable in the fall. i guess we better get back to rachel. >> i've got to say, we're going to be back with the panel in just a moment. and i think we're going to be making some news. there's something that happened in south carolina today at specifically tommy's country ham house, that involved one of our panelists. and newt gingrich. the reverend al sharpton and newt gingrich being set up on the stump today, in south carolina, reverend sharpton has not responded to that from gingrich yet. we'll be getting a response from him after the break. at this hour, newt gingrich the projected winner of the south carolina primary. msnbc's coverage of the south carolina primary will continue in just a moment. welcome back to our coverage of the south carolina primary here on msnbc. nbc news projects that newt gingrich is the winner of the south carolina primary. part of the reason that newt gingrich is thought to have done so well in south carolina is among late deciders. and part of the thing ha was driving what late deciders decided on were two debates this week. including one which resulted in a standing ovation for mr. gingrich after a racially-charged exchange that he had with juan williams. an african-american journalist on the payroll of fox news. watch. >> my email account, my twitter account has been inundated with people, of all races, who are asking if your comments are not intended to belittle the poor and racial minorities. you saw some of this reaction during your visit to a black church in south carolina. it sounds as if you are seeking to belittle people. >> well -- first of all, juan, the fact is that more people have been put on food stamps by barack obama than any president in american history. [ cheers and applause ] >> a standing ovation for mr. gingrich there. but it was only the first of his standing ovations. he also received a standing ovation from a south carolina crowd when he pushed back at jon king from cnn, for asking about adultery allegations. on the issue of race, mr. gingrich was confronted at tommy's country ham house in greenville, south carolina today. a man questioned him on his comments about having poor children work as janitors. now reporting from the hill today, says that mr. gingrich engaged the man. the man responded by saying he had spoken with the reverend al sharpton and asked mr. gingrich to meet with the reverend al sharpton to discuss these issues of race in the rhetoric of his campaign. and mr. gingrich said sure, i'd be willing to do it. >> i would welcome it. >> al, are you available monday at 6:00 p.m.? >> i'm available monday in this studio. and i'll even make it better. i will go wherever mr. gingrich is, i'll meet him in florida, i'll meet him in south carolina. because i want him to answer this whole question of blacks and food stamps, when clearly, that is not the case. that we in the black community are synonymous with food stamps. how the president is the food stamp president. like when barack obama inherited this economy. where all kinds of people needed more help, certainly a lot of aid went up because of the bush and i might add newt-supported bush policies. even more interesting to me, rachel, is president obama met with newt gingrich and i together, and asked us to go on this education tour. we went to five cities together. we ended it talking with david gregory on "meet the press." david can ask him about it in the morning. he forgot to mention that whole tour to any of those crowds about you need to demand jobs and get off food stamps. he forgot to tell those kids in those schools and we were in urban schools that they didn't have role models. when we were in the oval office, he forgot to tell the president he's the food stamp president. i posted today he talked about going to the naacp. he came to the national action network's convention and it's on their website. he didn't say any of that to a black audience. so i think we'll give him the whole hour, we'll meet him anywhere, any time. >> to be clear, the south carolina elect rat, in the republican primary, we don't know the racial breakdown. in 2008 we can say it's 96% white. it's essentially an all-white electorate in the republican primary. you're saying he's making racially-charged comments to essentially an all-white audience. but when he's talking to african-americans in real life he doesn't say the same thing? >> the tapes are there on the national action network website. david gregory has the tapes of "meet the press." none of this rhetoric was used. so all of a sudden i think he should explain what is the difference between when he was on tour with secretary of education arne duncan and me, and talking to these kids that he wants to be janitors and that have no role models but criminals in their community. what happened between then and now? are we dealing with a someone, who is just racially insensitive? or someone who is cynical, who would use race to play and use blacks as a backboard it try to score a shot. >> there's a tremendous amount of cynicism in gingrich's use of food stamps. he knows that his republican debate audiences do not know. his republican audiences do not know that most people on food stamps are white. his republican audience don't know that most people use it temporarily. and most importantly, his republican audiences do not know what newt does know, which is there would be no food stamps in america were it not for republican senator bob dole. who held the key to making the food stamp program happen. he made it happen, and which by the way, from his perspective and others, it was largely an agricultural subsidy program. because where did you think the food is bought from? this helps create demand in farm states. so that's how it was sold there and that's how dole brilliantly by the way sold it legislatively. and gingrich called dole for this. and other sins. the tax collector of the welfare state. this is a long-held grudge, gingrich has, about food stamps. he knows how they work. he knows who they work for. and to attach to the first african-american president, the label of the food stamp president, which he never called bill clinton. he never thought of calling bill clinton that and he had eight years to call bill clinton that. he never did. >> he even called george w. bush some names. he was critical of the george w. bush administration. it should be noted he was pretty critical of the reagan administration when the reagan administration was in office, but he never used terms like that. what we're getting at here is a question of whether or not racial politics, racially-charged politics works in republican primaries, whether there's moral aprobrium ought to attach to that. i think newt gingrich would love to talk to you on monday and i think he'll make ads on it and raise money from him fighting you on tv. >> he would be running ads against ads that would show that was not the position he took. and the problem is, that no one has lost any of that footage. so he could do whatever. but since he said he would meet again, we'll come anywhere, any time. because i think we need to have that discussion now. so he doesn't demagogue it if he's the nominee facing the president in the fall. >> one of the reasons why i think that he has gone after the food stamps is because it plays right into the camp of the tea party. the tea party thinks that there's this big spending that goes on out there and damn it, i'm going to go in, if i'm president, i'm going to cut all of this stuff. i think we should know that if the republicans do get into power again, you won't recognize the next farm bill. where the food stamp comes from along with nutrition, which of course plays to the minority communities in this country. but when it comes to the money, when it comes to the spending. i think that's also part of the point that he was trying to get across to people, that hey, i'm your guy, i'm willing to cut anything and even have a little hurt in all of that. and the tea party view that as red meat. >> looking at these issues either coded racial stuff or overt racial stuff, does that rattle around like a tin can tied to the bumper of the republican car at this point? is that embarrassment a vestigial thing? >> as a republican we've seen several embarrassments over the course of the campaign. we saw the booing of the gay soldier. we saw the despicable rick perry ad where he went out and he attacked the gay community. you saw the disrespectful attack on the president of the united states, by newt gingrich using words that he knows exactly as lawrence pointed out, what they mean and what they're designed to do. the food stamp president. it's inappropriate. this is a terrible thing for the republican party. over the short-term, the medium-term and the long-term. we have an argument to make, that the most compassionate policy government can have for people, including minority communities is a pro growth economic policy. i have a very different view than my colleagues sitting up here of how we achieve that pro growth economic policy. but we ought to as republicans, be reaching out into these communities, the way that the lake great jack kemp used to do and newt gingrich is setting the party back when he does stuff like that and i don't like it, personally. >> he'll have a chance in florida, because culturally, it's a lot different state than south carolina. >> and he's going to have a choice in making -- >> i must say this, do not underestimate, i think i appreciate what steve said. don't act as though everyone in the african-american community was applauding when i went on the road with newt. but president obama and others have said, we should reach out and try to work in a bipartisan way for education. now for us to do that, and him to come back with this rhetoric, i think is a poisonous tone in the body politic of this country and we need to deal with it. >> let the record show that the gauntlet thrown down today at tommy's country ham house in greenville, south carolina, where newt gingrich said he would like to talk to al sharpton about these matters has been taken up here, monday, 6:00 p.m. coming up in the next half hour. more from our exit polling on how newt gingrich won tonight in south carolina. plus chris matthews and nbc's brian williams, msnbc's coverage of the south carolina primary continues. welcome back to msnbc's live coverage of the south carolina primary. where there has been an historic result tonight, never before in history have three different republican candidates won iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. but it happened tonight. more now from our exit polling. and for that we turn to tamryn hall. >> our nbc news exit poll is giving us good information about why newt gingrich won. it shows he got a big surge of support in the last few days before today's primary, fuelled by his performance in recent debates. in fact, more than half of today's voters, 54% say they decided to who to vote for within the last few days. and among those voters, you see it here, 43% say they selected newt gingrich. 23% picked mitt romney. now about the recent debates. we asked our voters how important they were in choosing a candidate. take a look at this number, 13% said the debates were the most important factor and another 52% said it was one of several factors. which means nearly two-thirds thought recent debates were important. and just about half of them, look at this number explains a lot, 49 % decided to vote for newt gingrich. another important factor, that worked in gingrich's favor today, the ability to beat barack obama. 45% of today's primary voters said that is the quality that mattered most to them. among those people, you see the number here, they selected winning newt gingrich's favor, 48 to 39%. we'll watch closely as the results from our exit poll continue to come in over the next few hours and update you. >> we're about five minutes away we think from mitt romney speaking tooth. we'll be watching for that, remarkable number, by nine points newt gingrich favored among those who are looking at people who could beat barack obama. let's go to brian williams who is the anchor of "nbc nightly news." brian, great to have you here. >> well, rachel, thank you very much for having me. and here we are, in florida. and as you know how this works. overnight, both the attention and the candidates start to get focused here. and for romney, it's that firewall long haul strategy. that starts here. and for gingrich now, coming off the debate performance, we just heard tamryn, talk about how much of the vote that motivated our debate monday night on the nbc television network. becomes critical all over again. >> how newt gingrich put this together, it is remarkable, when we think about the national media landscape and we think about the blanket political coverage that there is out there, to have half the electorate deciding in the last few days, people putting off their decision that long, what does that tell you about how people are paying attention to politics and how good a job the media is doing at presenting choices to them? >> well, rachel, it reinforces my favorite adage, the voters have a funny way of deciding these races for themselves. we all talk ourselves out it's what we do. we're watching the incoming picture from romney headquarters and in the shot visible to all the cameras are the cheering captains. and they have started all of the chant, we want mitt. since they're waiting for him to come out. this is part of the game. they're doing their job. we're doing ours. and people saw something in newt gingrich and the specificity, the thin slice of politics that is south carolina, in the gop primary, that they wanted, that they liked, and especially in that last debate, and there will be much discussion as to the moderator, discretion of the moderator, the first question, the timing of it. he was doing his job. and so here we have this result tonight. as you've been saying all evening long. history was made, never before in modern politics have we seen three separate winners the first three contests of the gop primary. >> brian williams, thank you so much for joining us from florida. brian will be moderating the debate in monday, on monday night in florida. there had been noises from the romney campaign that they were feeling shy about appearing at that debate. but the candidate himself confirming to reporters today, that he will be there. this has been a campaign season full of incredibly high stakes debates. it's almost a snowballing sense as we started to realize how much each subsequent debate was important to the decision-making process of the voters, after this incredible showing really tonight among late-breaking voters by newt gingrich. watching the debates voters saying those are so important to them. i don't think there will be have a more important debate than the one that's coming up on monday. the last couple of minutes before romney starts talking. get in here, ed. >> romney is going to have a tax issue on monday night. here we go again. it keeps going on and on. i don't know if the personal history of newt gingrich is going to come up on monday night. because of the size of this win by gingrich and the conservative vote and it certainly didn't pay any attention to his personal history. but the tax issue for romney doesn't go away. and that obviously is going to be presented. >> doesn't all the fire now train on newt gingrich? i mean they've been sort of going after romney when they can. but right now, doesn't gingrich become the guy who everybody is shooting at? >> they were shooting at him before. for a long time, romney was getting away with just standing on the sidelines. especially during the december gingrich surge. all the other also-rans were trying to attach gingrich. tamryn just delivered the most important number of the night. 48% saying gingrich is more electab electable. 39% romney. he didn't squeak it out on electability. he just trounced romney on electability. there is more important romney argument than electability. >> that number is a disaster for mitt romney. i think we'll have over the next 72 hours what's the impact of the victory for newt gingrich. do romney's poll numbers across the country begin to collapse even further? he has to begin to stabilize his situation. he has to stop making a lot of the mistakes he's made over the last week. even before you get to the debate on monday, i think you're going to be looking for mitt romney to try to settle the tax issue and make a disclosure before the debate. >> you think it will be before the debate? >> i do. i think it's just he's bleeding all over the place from this issue. and it's driving lot of mistakes that the campaign have made. they have to get stable as fast as they can, or they'll wind up in big trouble. >> chris matthews is in tampa. steve is saying he things mitt romney will try to settle the tax issue before the monday night debates so he doesn't get hit on it all night long. >> he better disclose, and not say he's going to disclose. he cannot pull the wimpy line -- out of popeye and say i'll gladly pay you onpopeye and say gladly pay on tuesday for a hamburger today. he can't say i'll give you two or three of returns come april 15th with my regular return schedule. journalists have a responsibility here to get this information. all politicians have given us their tax returns. you have to go back to '96 and bob dole to find somebody who wouldn't for whatever reason in his case certainly wasn't a wealthy game. this guy admitted paying as he says close to 15%. we don't know whether it's close from below or above or nowhere near what he pays or where there were several years he paid no taxes. we don't know why he put money in an island resort to keep it safe. there's a lot of things the public wants to know. this has been the hottest issue, not just with ed schultz and a bunch of us, the hottest issue of the year is economic inequality. if he gets away with it with the media i don't think the media are doing their job. the pressure has to stay on him through the next two weeks and steve, if he says i'll tell you in two weeks i don't think that's good enough. >> devil's advocate though. >> he has tax returns in hand with his accountant right now he can give us. he's filed last year and every assume in all his grownup years. can he give us any tax return he wishes to. he said i have to check the documents. what do you mean i have to check the documents. he has to show us the documents. >> you're right everybody disclosed, all previous candidates and nominees disclosed but haven't disclosed in january. they haven't all disclosed at this time of the year. steve you were saying people waited much longer to disclose. >> i misstated last week when chris and i were argue about romney's taxes. 2004 bush said john kerry should release her tax returns because of her great wealth when he took out a second mortgage on the house. he never did. he released his tax returns late in the year. there's never been a demand for disclosure this early. i don't think mitt romney is going to put the taxes out on monday and i don't think they'll be disclosed before the primary in florida but he'll look to close the issue down saying i'm going to release my taxes, this is how many years by date certain i'm going to release them and i suspect they will be released sometime between the florida primary and the long interregnum between the supertuesday. >> i was in the 2004 race with kerry. the difference is the bush people asked john kerry to release them after the nomination, which we had the convention in the summer. this is an issue in the republican primary. it was not an issue with john kerry in the democratic primary. we were not pressuring john kerry. you've got your own fellow republicans. >> you're right. >> that's why you have the timing difference, a big difference. the other thing i think you have here which i agree with chris matthews on, while romney is not releasing them, he's the one attacking the president for being divisive, talking about class, he's talking about the politics of envy so i'm not going to show you what i'm making, not going to show you my percentage but call you envious and accuse you of being divisive to raise questions. >> it's an issue of practicality. the economic issue of the country is different than what it was in 2004. the income and inequality, the chart we show all the time on the network, there's a sense of unfairness. a candidate comes out and said i made $375,000 in speaking fees, not that much. it just doesn't fly with people. it's not practical. releasing your taxes are practical. that's why i brought mine tonight. my wife said there's been a lot in the media about taxes. >> we see that. pass that over here right now. >> i thought i can grab our taxes. >> what year is this? >> 2008. >> come on. >> i can't tell you everything that's in there. >> it's beautiful. >> but i can tell you who did them and that they're professionally done and i don't even -- >> don't go too close. >> some years we made money, some years we lost money. some years were better than others but we created jobs but here are my taxes. americans keep their taxes in a closet, the garage, in the attic. they're accessible but all of a sudden as a matter of practicality, mitt romney doesn't have his taxes for weeks on end in a time of income inequality where that is the conversation of the country. >> if you owe, if you don't, everybody goes, so what is the big deal here? disclose it. >> there's much more complexity in romney's tax return life. first of all obviously the numbers are bigger, his return is not that small, it's probably hundreds of pages long on the personal end. he could have returns that are thousands of pages long that involve some of these llcs that he has. he has many entities that are filing tax returns. >> no question about it. >> the trick question for what chris is talking about, what is satisfaction of this demand? is his personal tax return actually satisfaction of this demand? because he's running all kinds of llcs that actually are what his wealth is about, that don't have his name on them as personal tax return items, and in a real world would you want to see those and also his returns are so complex that those returns frequently involve delays in filing, legitimate delays in filing. they frequently incur penalty fees because of the delay in filing and the complexity. he could have things as a tax practitioner i think are innocent little things that will look terrible. >> lawrence, he is perfectly positioned to make the case to the american people, this is why we need them. >> 30,000 page taxes. >> because you no he what? the laws in new york are different from the laws in minnesota. the laws in minnesota are different from the ones in illinois and he is positioned to make the case to the american people that practicality should not be my problem. it should be what i would be able to present to the american people as a better system, and he has missed it. >> this was a totally predictable issue. they knew this question was coming from 150 miles away. this was a small issue. the release of the taxes by any candidate for president is really a ministerial issue of the campaign. it's been terribly handed at the candidate level and now become a major issue in the campaign and coming off a loss and coming off a collapse of this magnitude, mitt romney doesn't have much room to make many more mistakes like this. so he goes into this debate monday with expectations that are at their highest level for mitt romney at any debate he's gone into. doesn't have any room to make any mistakes and he has to dispose of this issue or wind up being in a lot of trouble. >> people talk about how well the romney campaign it. the tax return meeting in the romney campaign should have taken place at least a year ago. it would have been a few hours long. you would have made every decision we're going to release this, this, this and this and this is when and how we're going to do it. >> it should have taken place five years ago. >> maybe he'll release them right now. >> here's mitt romney approaching the podium, you see his wife anne with him, a couple of his sons, a crowd cheering wildly and waving their flags with the help of some cheerleaders in the crowd. here's mitt romney. ♪ mit ♪ >> mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt! >> mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt, mitt! >> wow, you guys are fantastic. thank you so very much. [ cheers and applause ] you should hear when we win, i tell you, it's really something. this race is even more interesting. i want to thank you for all of your help over the last few day, months and weeks going across this great state. i appreciate all the calls you made, all the people you brought into the polls for us. this was an exciting day for us and thanks to all the people that have helped. let's begin with your governor, governor nikki haley has been fabulous and i owe her so very much for her help. [ cheers and applause ] and treasurer kur ris loftus who has chaired my campaign i appreciate his help. [ cheers and applause ] there have been a number of state legislators, nate ballantine, one of those with me from the beginning, david radd, and of course the people of south carolina who helped this campaign, i owe you so very much. thank you for this great night tonight. want i want to congratulate speaker gingrich and my fellow republicans at a heartfelt campaign in south carolina. we're now three contests into a long primary season. this is a hard fight because there's so much worth fighting for. we've still got a long way to go and a lot of work to do, and tomorrow we're going to move on to florida. it's a state that has suffered terribly under the failed policies of president obama. [ boos ] three years ago we had nothing but promises and slogans by which to judge this president. today we have a record of deficits, decline, and debt. president obama likes to remind us that elections have consequences. well, today the consequences are clear, and the stakes have never been higher. i've said this before, and i firmly believe that this election is a battle for the soul of america. it's -- [ cheers and applause ] it's a choice, it's a choice between two very different destinies for america. president obama wants to fundamentally transform our country. we want to restore to america the founding principles that made this country great in the hope of the earth. [ cheers and applause ] he is making the federal government bigger and bloated. i want to make the federal government simpler, smaller and smarter, and we'll do it. he has raised the debt a astronomically time and time again and i will cut the budget, i will balance the budget for the united states again. [ cheers and applause ] >> we need mitt! we need mitt! we need mitt! we need mitt! we need mitt! we need mitt! >> he has enacted job killing regulations. i will eliminate them. he passed ooba ma care, i will repeal it. the president adopted an appeasement strategy. he believes america's role as leader of the world is a thing of the past. i believe in a strong america and i believe that america must lead this nation, this world and be the leader of the free world and the free world must lead the entire world. in recent weeks, the choice within our party has also come in to stark focus. president obama has no experience running a business, and no experience running a state. our party can't be led to victory by someone who also has never run a business and never run a state. our president has divided the nation, engaged in class warfare and attacked the free enterprise system that has made economic the economic envy of the world. we cannot defeat that president with a candidate who has joined in that very assault on free enterprise. when my opponents attack success and free enterprise, they're not only attacking me, they're attacking every person who dreams of a better future. he's attacking you. i will support you. i will help you have a better future. i'll make sure that america is a place of opportunity for all. i'm passionate, i'm passionate about our economic liberty, because i have witnessed our free enterprise system as it rewards the hard work of many and creates prosperity for all in this great country, and over the past few weeks we've seen a frontal assault on free enterprise. we expected this from president obama. we didn't anticipate some republicans would join them. that's a mistake foreour party and for our nation. ours is the party of free enterprise and free markets and consumer choice. the republican party doesn't demonize prosperity, we celebrate success in our party. that's one of the big differences between our party and our president. he leaves the party of big government. he believes in ever-expanding entitlement. he's wrong. we're right, and this is a battle we cannot lose. those who pick up the weapons of the left today will find them turned against us tomorrow. that's the choice our party gives america, or else we don't offer them any choice at all, and americans, in my view, will demand a real choice in this campaign between those people who believe in prosperity and success and opportunity and those who believe in government, and i think they'll choose us. by the way, by the way, if president obama thinks can he compare his record of job losses with my record of job creation, that's a battle we're gonna win. and if he thinks he can compare his record of crony capitalism with my record of free market success, that's a battle we can win. and let me be clear. if republican leaders want to join this president in demonizing success and disparaging conservative value, then they're not going to be fit to be our nominee. our campaign has fought very hard here in south carolina and in the coming weeks and months, i'll keep fighting for every single vote. i will compete in every single sta state. we're going to win this nomination and we're going to defeat president obama in november. [ cheers and applause ] our campaign will be about the businesses i helped start, not the bills i tried to pass, and above all, our campaign will champion the founding principles of liberty, opportunity, and economic freedom. i don't shrink from competition. i embrace it. i believe competition makes us all better, and i know it's making our campaign stronger, and in the coming weeks, the economic freedom will need a very strong defense and i intend to make it. >> we need mitt! we need mitt! we need mitt! we need mitt! >> why thank you. ann agrees with you. the american people will be looking for a real choice in this campaign, and i will provide it. the plan we're offering protects freedom and opportunity, and our blueprint it's the constitution of the united states of america. if you want to make this election about restoring american greatness, then i hope you'll join us. if you believe the disappointments of the last few years are a detour, not a destiny, then i'm asking for your vote. we still believe in the america that's a land of opportunity and a beacon of freedom. we believe in the america that challenges each of us to be better and bigger than ourselves. we still believe in that shining city on a hill. this election, i'm asking for your support. we need you to join in the fight. thank you, and god bless the united states of america. you guys are the best. thank you so much. >> lif in columbia, south carolina, at his campaign headquarters, pivoting from some attacks we heard before to attacks on president obama to attacks on newt gingrich, we cannot have a nominee who has never won a state or a business and going after mr. gingrich for the way he's run against mr. romney. chris matthews is with us from tampa, florida. what do you think? >> says he's not afraid of competition. we'll see how many debates he signs up for the next several weeks and months. i think he is afraid of competition. it was interesting now the republican party no more claims to be job creators. a few weeks ago it was all about job creation if you make a lot of money you're a job creator. now it's about individual success. this is a big development. he is now campaigning as a conviction politician who believes in making a lot of money. that's his conviction. it's an interesting admission now. he's probably going to have to come out with his tax returns at some point. probably going to have to admit he's wealthy, way up in the 1%, perhaps the 1% of the 1%, admit he pays a low rate of taxes so here is the preparation for it. it's about success. it's about how great that is, and unashamed success but not about job creation, not about macro economics, not about getting the country moving again. it's about keeping people like him moving. it's an amazing, amazing almost shameless display tonight of individual wealth as a value in itself politically, and i think that's unusual. i think he's going to run on this now. he thinks this is his strength and we talked before he gave that speech about the meetings. lawrence is very smart, talking about the meetings they must have held that weren't conclusive. lawrence they may have decided he's better off not releasing his returns even if it's a lot of heat he has to take. maybe it's something really bad, we don't know but tonight we saw a guy preparing to brag about wealth, to brag about success and don't even claim to his individual success has anything to do with creating employment for anyone else. >> we are awaiting now, chris, speech from rick santorum, also a speech from ron paul, both of those expected in the next couple of minutes, about you in the meantime i want to bring in rick tyler with the pro-newt gingrich super pac that's called "winning our future." he's in columbia, south carolina, for us tonight. mr. tyler, thank you for being with us. i appreciate it. >> i'm glad to be here. >> the speech mr. romney just gave was as much about newt gingrich as it was about anything. at one point he said "those who pick up the weapons of the left will find them used against us in the future." going after mr. gingrich for criticizing mr. romney's role at bain capital i'm guess something what he was getting at there. do you skrhave a response to th? >> it was unfortunate that mitt romney decided not to be gracious in his speech. i thought it was a good speech up until that point because he made that argument about attacking capitalism, of course the voters of south carolina didn't believe that. no one attacks capitalism. the only thing we attacked was his jobs record and chris may be right. he's shifted from his job record to his success and if he were running on someone who returns a great investment to his investors i wouldn't be having this argument but it's sort of a very arrogant to come across and say because we questioned him on his jobs record we're somehow pulling out the pillars of capitalism. it's sort of ridiculous. >> that argument that he made there, which you just criticized has not just been mitt romney's argument, really the whole republican establishment has been guns blazing against newt gingrich for being willing to criticize mr. romney on the job practices and the business practices rather at bain. the republican establishment has been furious with newt gingrich and has been almost united against him. you turn on fox news and almost looks like liberal news in terms of the way they talk about newt gingrich. what do you make about the establishment being so angry with mr. gingrich specifically on this issue? >> well i think the establishment tonight got a heavy dose of populism. people reject the establishment, they reject the idea that a massachusetts liberal can win anything southwest of pennsylvania, and newt gingrich has a record of success. people remember capitalism under newt gingrich. 11 million jobs were created when newt was speaker, not to say he created them but he created the environment, taxes were cut, welfare reform, $405 billion worth of debt was paid off. there's a lot of success in newt gingrich and the republican revolution. mitt romney was not a republican during reagan or bush. he criticized reagan and bush, he criticized the contract with america. newt gingrich is a conservative and we'll move on to florida, also a bordering state with georgia and delivering the same type of message. >> rick it's lawrence o'donnell. we last talked when we were both in new hampshire and you were getting the super pac started against the massive spending that occurred from the romney super pac. you kept saying this is not the way you want to see campaigns run, but it looks like this is the way it's going to go from here out, your super pac versus romney's super pac money. do you think you're going to be able to compete with them just on the money raising alone? >> i'm not sure we're going to raise as much money as they do. one thing i've learned in the campaign so far, we didn't run a single negative ad against mitt romney until wednesday of last week. from wednesday of last week until today there was a 25-point turnaround and obviously we're going to win this by more than double digits, so you're right. we didn't want to run a negative ad. we didn't run negative ads in iowa and didn't respond in new hampshire. we responded here i think to a great effect and newt closed the deal with two tremendous debate performances which i'm told 60% of south carolina voters had actually watched that. so mitt romney's right in this regard it's going to be a long slog and we're going to continue on starting with florida and through super tuesday. we will have the resources to compete, but one thing i've learned is that a man with a message beats a manager with money every time. >> well you're going to get some help, too. the afsme union took out a $1 million ad and all running against mitt romney. you're going to get some help in florida in that regard? >> well, i'm aware of the afsme, it has something to do with damon, a company that bain owned. damon was fined $25 -- well they defrauded the government in a medicare scandal, they were fined $119 million, that was the largest criminal fine ever in place in massachusetts, and now i hope that my friends don't think that because i'm criticizing mitt romney, who is on the board at damon, when they defrauded the government of $25 million and paid a fine of $119 million that somehow i'm criticizing capitalism. i don't think fraud has any place in defending capitalism. >> tyler, nobody's endorsing newt gingrich. do you think you're going to get some help now down in florida, maybe mark rubio, maybe the governor rick scott? you got help from sarah palin, she would vote for newt gingrich if she was in south carolina but how come nobody is rallying behind him of any real significance behind your candidate? >> well, i will say this about sarah palin, she came in like the sixth fleet and threw us a lifeline when we needed it and we are tremendously grateful. a lot of the big names, i've been in politics long enough to know that people decide endorsements don't really decide. some matter, but most of them don't, but most of the endorsements that are coming are coming from congress. congress has a 9% approval rating. i would not, i'd shun most endorsements from congress, and by the way a lot of the people who were outspoken about newt and served with newt didn't like newt because he cut them off from earmarks and pork barrel republicans. >> sorry to cut you off. we go to the ron paul speech right now. rick tyler thank you for joining us. ron paul speaking right now. >> -- 37 delegates have been chosen so far. less than 2%, like 1.5%. this is a beginning of a long, hard slog. and we will continue to do this, there's no tout about it. the message of liberty is being received by people more every single day thanks to your effort. the wonderful thing about the message of liberty is if what we seek is peace and prosperity, that is how you get peace and prosperity by understanding and defending and promoting the cause of liberty. there's no doubt our numbers have been growing since this primary. i've been in business of promoting this cause in the electoral process for a long time. at the beginning i thought it would be promotion of a cause. it dawned on me if you win elections and win delegates, that's the way you promote a cause. so we will certainly be promoting this in the most frugal way. we will be going to the caucus states, and we will be promoting the whole idea of getting more delegates, because that's the name of the game, and we will pursue it. 20 or 30 years ago i started and i didn't think it will be well received and obviously getting elected 12 times meant the people who knew me best voted for the cause of liberty and this cause has continued to grow. even compared to four years ago, it looks like tonight we will get four to five times more votes than we did four years ago. so there's every reason to be encouraged, there's every reason that we understand so clearly that the cause is so necessary. this is what i notice about four years ago. after the last election, our efforts were getting, they were getting more and more attention, and everybody asked me, the media asked me, what is the difference? well the evidence has become clear that the efforts by government is failing and we can't depend on the government to take care of us from cradle to grave. we can't depend on the government on its efforts to promote and believe that we can police the world and go into nation building because we're all gone broke. of course we talked a lot about the economy and how we got into the mess and what we should do about it. others talked about it in glib terms and not been specific but i see our problems as a spending problem, government is too big. we do more things, all the things we're not supposed to do and forget about doing the things we're supposed to be doing. so as a modest attempt to get back to reasonable budgets, we want to have a $1 trillion cut in spending in one year. of course there is one other little item i talked about not for this campaign, not for the last campaign but for the last 30 years, it motivated me in many ways to run for korng. how do we get away with paying for these bills and endless spending occurs and government keeps growing? it cannot occur with a sound monetary system. that's why i emphasized the importance of having a sound dollar and why we need to rein in the federal reserve system. [ cheers and applause ] [ chanting ] you know, one of the arguments that they, you know, pose against us for talking about the gold standard is they said it's too complex and it's risky business. but what can be more ridiculous than saying oh, money comes out of a printing press and should be done in secret creating trillions of dollars and passing it to the special interests and we're supposed to accept that as a good monetary system. [ booing ] it isn't all that complex. as a matter of fact if we obeyed the law we'd have sound money. the constitution says only gold and silver should be legal tender. if one understands this you can understand why government growth. politicians don't have to be responsible. there's various reasons why they spend money but if they could one degree they can tax us but there's a limit to how long because there will be a tax rebellion. they can borrow and get away with that as long as the credit is good and the interest rates go up. they invented in 1913 this financial system on fiat money and printing money because you can delay the pain and penalty. i used to say so often over the years that we run up these debts and we pass them on to the next generation, we shouldn't do it but you know what is different today? we are the next generation and we're suffering the consequences. and this is the reason that we cannot resolve the problem of the unfinanced entitlement system, social security and all. you print money, the value goes down and people's standard of living is going down. the middle class is shrinking. unemployment if you look at those honestly as closer to 20% and the people are very, very concerned about this. the answers come with a very unxu uncomplicated solution. we got into this mess by too many people in washington didn't care or didn't understand the constitution. we need to restore the constitution and we need to restore liberty. in order to do that we should spend our resources at home. that's a good place to spend the money. this is also the reason i emphasized so strongly about the waste and amount of money we spend overseas and the foreign aid. at the same time our people suffering here at home. if we want to spend the money we should work hard to return the money from overseas spending to the people here in this country and they should spend the money. but in order to do this we all know it is not so simple. you don't wave a wand. you have to change the people's attitude and what is what's happening. the people's attitudes are changing and realizing we can't afford this any longer. even the people on the receiving end know they're getting into trouble because the producers have been pushed out of our country so this is becoming the opportunity for us to restore the values that had made america great. it is based on individual liberty. it's based on the concept that we are free people with free spirits. we should have control of our lives, and we should have a control of our destiny, but we also should have control over our money as well. government reflects the prevailing attitudes of the people, where we are gaining is the prevailing attitude of the people is changing and that is very good, because it's coming our way in saying government is the problem. it is not the solution. we got into this mess by too much spending and too much debt and too much printing money and too much regulation. how do they think they're going to get out of this mess by spending more money, printing more money, borrowing more money and regulating more? it's impossible. that is why we have to reverse the course, in foreign policy we need a foreign policy not so strange but one the founders gave us, one the constitution designed, one that is designed to operate in our self-interest and for our national security. that's the kind we have. i think a simple little thing to avoid going into wars that never seem to end and never seem to stop and we never know why they're there and what the purpose is. the founders gave us the answer, don't go to war unless the war is declared. go to the war to win it and go home. so that's a good place to start, bring the troops home, have them spend their money here. entitlement systems don't work, all intended. everybody will get a house and free health care, a free education and look at what we have. all it does is when you pump more money into any area you get higher prices so the more the government pumps money into education or medicine, the costs go up. but you don't get higher quality or better distribution. unfortunately our country has been very lackadaisical about our understanding and trust in freedom. this is what we need. we need to restore the free and prosperous society we have to understand the necessity of assuming responsibility for ourselves. the one other area that bothers me is the big roll of government in domesteconomics and overseas. our economic liberties are being attacked, always with good intention. in the last 10 or 12 years we've embarked on a road that is undermining our liberties. when you think of the harm done and the threat to our privacy with the patriot act, that has literally canceled out the fourth amendment. [ boos ] we need to reverse that and get rid of the patriot act is what i think we should do. [ cheers and applause ] one place where the people spoke out we achieved a lot and a few people in this room i'm quite sure are computer savvy and internet savvy. when they threatened with stopping online gambling act which was so take over the internet, guess what? you all spoke out and at least temporarily it has been removed from the docket in washington both in the house and the senate, so that is an achievement when the people speak out, you can get their attention in washington. we also need to continue to speak out against what that paragraph they put in the national defense authorization act, that provision that now allows our president to use our military to arrest american citizens with no charges and no attorneys. now i got a little bit of criticism from the media and i worry a lot about that. i took a day this week and went back up to washington. i voted to make sure that it was on record to vote against increasing the national debt by $1.2 trillion. but also while there, i dropped a piece of legislation in i think is very significant and i hope we gain the momentum, because so many people in the campaign have been aware of this, although it's not noticed much in the mainstream media and that is i introduced a bill to repeal that provision and remove that power from our president. our cause is the right cause because it's the cause that made america great. freedom is the answer to so many of our problems. if you think about diversity in a country as our country is, freedom brings people together, because what we do is we release the creative energy of each individual to purr sigh their life as they choose, their lifestyles, their religious values, their personal values will be determined by that individual as long as they don't interfere with others. this brings people together, economically it should be the same issue, social issues and economic issues, you should have your right to your life and your own practices but you should have a right to spend your money as you choose. >> yes! >> this is what we have to do. which did have the best experiment ever, the richest country ever, the largest middle class ever and now it is changing and it's been systematically changing over quite a few decades, so we have to reverse that, because right now, the middle class is shrinking. the country is poorer, and the prosperity we have is basically based on debt. we owe so much money to overseas. we have now, i mean ironically and unfortunately, the chinese have become our banker. i mean what is going on with us? why don't we produce the conditions in the environment to invite capital investments back into this country? that's what we need. [ cheers and applause ] the issues you all know very well, the country is coming our way. this campaign has a long way to go, the momentum is growing. the one thing we can say about our campaign, have you ever noticed other candidates going up and then down, up and then down? so far, i am very proud to say that our efforts is steady growth. it's steady growth like this. and that's the way it's going to continue, because that is what is necessary. there is a great need for it, and the opportunity is there, and let me tell you how proud i am of all the supporters and all the efforts made in this, and just believe me, thank you very much. keep up the good work. we have the message. we have the talent. we have the determination, and we will win this battle for peace and prosperity. thank you. >> ron paul speaking tonight at his campaign headquarters in south carolina, a long speech from ron paul, clearly not on teleprompter, but he is as energetic as ever, and so are the crowds around him as always. right now, in south carolina, we are awaiting a speech from rick santorum, where we can tell you at this hour is that newt gingrich is the projected win of the republican primary in south carolina with 44% of votes in, newt gingrich with 40% of the vote. mitt romney in second place right now 26% of the vote, rick santorum at 18% of the vote, and ron paul at 13% of the vote. there are a number of other candidates whose names were still on the ballot but these are the four who remain. ron paul saying at the end there as the other candidates saw their fortunes rise and fall over the last few weeks in the campaign or last few months in the campaign, ron paul described his numbers and his strategy as being one of steady growth. if he ends up placing fourth tonight, we don't yet know if that's going to happen, if the numbers will continue to follow the early contours we've seen with less than half of the vote in, ron paul may have actually had a lower number, a lower percentage of the vote tonight than he had in south carolina -- excuse me in new hampshire and iowa. over time when you compare to how he did in 2008, in 2008 ron paul only got 4% of the vote in south carolina, so to have turned in double digits tonight will definitely be an improvement over that time frame. looking at that ron paul speech, steve schmidt and the mitt romney speech, before we hear from rick santorum, are you struck from this perspective of what is the most important thing that's happened tonight? >> i think the most important thing that happened tonight is the exit polls and mitt romney's loss of the electability argument and i think that's a lot more significant that he's losing the state of south carolina. what i was struck by in the speech was their decision to refer to newt gingrich obliquely but not to mention him by name. i don't think you'll see too many more mitt romney speeches after tonight where he's not engaging newt gingrich i go name in every speech because it's difficult to see mitt romney's path ahead unless he sees his backed that electability argument he has to prosecute that case against newt gingrich every minute of every day, because if this becomes an ideological contest with newt gingrich in the role of the conservative candidate and the electoral arguments in terms of who can win the race against president obama the perception despite newt gingrich have a 60% national unfavorable number from republican primary voters believe he's the stronger candidate, mitt romney could find himself in real trouble real fast. >> electability issue, whether that is a comfortable number, whether people answering that question of the four guys he's got the best chance or are people saying versus obama, i this i that he is likely to win, because the way you could take down newt gingrich's electability numbers is easy, you just run very easily written anti-newt gingrich ads with all of the money that you're surfing on if you're mitt romney. you could destroy newt gingrich on that easily with a concerted effort. >> the one thing that's clear in the exit poll number is that newt gingrich at least for south carolina voters is viewed as the candidate who is best able to take on president obama and win in november, and across the race, that's happened when newt gingrich is vieweded one-dimensionally through the prism of the debates. when newt gingrich is viewed more expansively his entire record is put into consideration, then that number starts to wobble, but when he's viewed one-dimensionally as a debater that number rises and becomes a problem for governor romney. >> there are one or two things i'm going to be looking for tonight, as i said earlier, does some of the rick perry money and other money start coming into gingrich, which clearly the snyder who comes from the fairly pacs will happen. also will there be pressure from conservatives on saner toum get behind gingrich. i'm interested to hear what santorum says and does. if santorum is forced to be behind gingrich, it will make it more difficult because from what we're seeing, gingrich not only is winning, he's winning big in south carolina, which gives a big argument for the gingrich people to say to santorum, this is the conservative leader, line up and don't splinter any votes from him in florida. >> this speech tonight from santorum is important. we saw him give a great speech in new hampshire and a very good speech in iowa and his campaign you were saying this earlier, ed, given word he's not getting out no matter what happens tonight. >> he's not getting out. he's more of a candidate of conviction right now. he wants to make sure that what he believes in stays in the vernacular of the republican party. that's how i view it. he wants to make sure that his issues are still out there. he's a mission candidate so to speak. >> i see ron paul that way. i don't see rick santorum that way. >> you see it looks like santorum will finish better than ron paul tonight and that's not bad. >> but he's not going to finish great though. >> plus he's got doneson's crowd behind him and got some things happening so he's going to have to obviously raise some money but this is a big moment for santorum. i think he's going to give it all. >> this is a big moment and rick santorum has given some great speeches on these nights recently. obviously his family will be franking him on the stage. rick santorum taking the stage with his wife tonight in south carolina. let's listen. [ cheers and applause ] >> thank you. thank you. thank you. thank you. >> we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! >> thank you. >> we need rick! we need rick! >> thank you. >> we need rick! we need rick! >> thank you. >> we need rick! we need rick! [ cheers and applause ] >> thank you. well, three states, three winners, what a great country. i had the pleasure and it was a pleasure to congratulate by friend newt gingrich just a few minutes ago on really an amazing victory for him. he's been, he's been up and he's been down and he never stopped fighting and to newt gingrich, let's give him a big round of applause for standing up there and fighting. good job, buddy, good job. well, i just want to also thank somebody else, and well actually a group of folks who happen to be standing behind me. i just want to thank first and foremost my wife, karen, for -- [ applause ] and we have six of our seven children here. our little one bella is here in south carolina but not up with us on stage. i want to thank them for their good hard work, thank you. [ applause ] and i always have to start out by thanking my family because that's where it all starts for me. you know, i've only -- karen has written two books. i've only written one. by the way her book sold more than my one book, but i wrote that book in response to a book written by hillary clinton, and she wrote a book called "it takes a village," and i wrote the rebuttal, "it takes a family." >> we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! reneed rick! >> this was a family decision. it was not an easy decision to step forward and step back into the firing line, and this has clearly been a firing line, but it was a family decision to step forward and at a time when we just, like everybody else in america, the tea party people who rose up and delivered that great victory in 2010, who felt this sense that something was wrong in america. there was something that was out of whack, something they couldn't sit on the sidelines and watch the america that they knew and love fundamentally change, and that's why karen and i and the kids, we sat around our kitchen table just like, well we all sit around our kitchen tables and talk about our future and talk about our family and our country and we decided to step forward and run for president of the united states, and we went to this little town in the hills of the appalachian mountains, somerset, pennsylvania, and i went there for two reasons, because i think what's fundamentally at stake in this country is freedom. the government taking and robbing every man, woman and child, every institution that seeks to do good in our society, they continue to rob it of their freedom and try to control everything from the top-down. [ applause ] so our family went to this little town in somerset, pennsylvania. it's not where i was from. didn't grow up in somerset. never lived in somerset. had a couple of friends in somerset, but we went to somerset because of two things that to me represented what was at the core of the threat that this administration was to those fundamental freedoms. number one was as i mentioned before, it's about a few miles down the road from where my grandfather aim to the country and worked in those coal mines. that's where my grandfather dug his way to freedom for me and my father and for this generation that now follows me. and so i wanted to stand on the place where freedom was etched for the santorum family and just down the road from a place where an airliner crashed on a september day, five miles away from somerset in shanksville, where the first blow for freedom was struck in this war against radical jihadists. i wanted to stand there on those sites to make a clear call that this race and this campaign was not going to be about tearing everybody down. it was not going to be about negative ads. it was not going to be about anything other than painting a bold vision for our country, one that believed in the working class values that my grandfather taught to me. [ cheers and applause ] workers who believed as, well, barack obama actually got it right when he made that comment in san francisco unbeknownst that it was being recorded. yes my grandfather and i come from that area of pennsylvania he was referring to that holds on tightly to their guns and their bibles. those shall the people in america who are being left behind. those are the folks in america whose party, neither party has a voice for. president obama on the left will tell you, oh, they care. they want to do everything for you, from the top down. they don't believe in you. they believe in their ability to care for you. that's not america and that's not what the working people of western pennsylvania and the working people of south carolina, the working people of across this country want. they don't want someone or some government that's going to care for them. they want someone who believes in them. we went out and all across this country in these three states now, but let me assure you, we will go to florida and then we're going to arizona and colorado and maryland and everywhere else across this country. >> we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! we need rick! >> and we're going to deliver a little different message than the other folks in this race and i respect them greatly, it's great to be up there and shoulder to shoulder with them, taking on every night and every day as we travel across this country, taking on the policies of this president, but i plan to be a little different. i'm going to go out and talk about how we're going to have a republican party, a conservative movement that makes sure that everyone in america has the opportunity to rise, not just those who have maybe advantage, maybe have had a little bit more opportunity than somebody else, but every person in america will have the opportunity rise in america again. [ cheers and applause ] and it's a pretty simple formula, it's a formula i talked about the other day at the debate but it's a simple formula that we all understand, it's a formula that values work, it respects the dignity of all work in america that says to anybody for any job that we respect that but we also want to give you an opportunity to rise in society and that's what's missing. as much as we like to talk about as conservatives if you cut taxes and reduce spending, everybody will do fine. well that's simply not the case. that's simply not the case. we have to create an atmosphere in this country where people can get the education they need. we have to create an atmosphere where people get the training they need. we have to have an attitude in this country that says we want to compete for those blue collar jobs that create the opportunities that in two generations one of their kids can run for president of the united states. i also want to say that we stand up and want to promote the values that made this country great, the values of faith, family and freedom, those values that we understand and we all now, that that what works in america. i talk often in my speeches about the liberal think tank that says if you do three things that you can almost guarantee to stay out of poverty, work that i talked about, get that education, graduate from high school and of course get married before you have children, marriage, family. if we are not the party that stands up for the truth about the importance of marriage, the importance of families, the importance of father hood and motherhood, the importance of those values of instilling virtues in the next generation of children with faith, then we are a party that no longers that a heart, and we are not a party that's going to be a majority party in this country. we have to be the party that speaks to everyone, those who know and understand that at the heart of america is that beating sound, is the beating pulse of the healthy family. [ cheers and applause ] i want to thank everybody here in the state of south carolina. i thank you so much, here at the citadel i thank the citadel for the tremendous hospitality and the wonderful job the cadets have done for us and particularly thank them for the beautiful muselin i got yesterday. and i want to say to all those folks across america, who are looking for that candidate, that candidate that can be that good, stark contrast, someone who can contrast on all of the issues that are important for america today, the ones that are going to decide this election, the ones of experience on national security, the consistency of the conservative principles that made this country great. i ask you, it's a wide open race. join the fight. thank you. [ cheers and applause ] >> rick santorum saying it's a wide open race, from the citadel in south carolina where he had his headquarters tonight, opening up his remarks congratulating newt gingrich, with some vim and vigor, saying to the camera "good job buddy" and giving a thumbs up and calling newt gingrich his friend. let's go to cls cls in tampa, florida, the site of the next debate. chris, what is your reaction to seeing mr. santorum tonight? >> i thought he changed the whole notion of his campaign rather dramatically whether to run for vice president or not. i think he's basically offering himself up as the candidate of the rust belt. ed schultz probably heard the same thing i heard. the opportunity for the working guy for the blue collar family, resentful of the comment by the president of knob hill when he talked about working people clinging to their guns and their religion. i took offense to that line. i think a lot of people did when obama was quoted making that comment. adelaide stephenson, one of the great democrats ever campaigned by saying this country was built with the acts in the bible. people with nothing but the bible and an axe. they built this country across the continent and i think he was basically offering himself up as a guy who could complement either romney or newt gingrich, should they win this nomination fight. i think he does complement them. he's offering himself i thought for weeks to romney and basically fighting the old fight he fought against bobby casey when he lost that fight in '06 because he didn't do it as well as he just did it there. and that's my thought, i think we saw a real change in this man's direction. he's not running the fight with obama. he wants to offer himself up as the guy who can bring the blue collar worker, the reagan democrat back into the republican fold this year. >> chris, i see it that way as well, that he was very obviously not being antagonistic and being overtly friendly toward the other candidates talking about himself as somebody who is an added value. i could be an added value. i'll be the one who talks to blue collar workers. the question is who is he negotiating with? obviously it's a lot better more mitt romney if rick santorum stays in the race. better for newt gingrich if rick santorum gets out. >> i think chris is right, because the message that rick santorum has been sending is one that other republican candidates have not. he cares about the wage earner. he has what he says, lawrence and i will get into what he thinks is a manufacturing strategy, but the fact is that maybe he would play better in ohio, in indiana, get it back from the democrats, in michigan, states that have got the rust belt, the jobs and that's something that, steve, i think the republicans are fighting for right now. 'kind of an identity your party has lost. >> i'll interject briefly, exactly what i would say if i were rick santorum and i would know my 18-point loss in pennsylvania the last time i ran for elected office would be running that message over every time i said it. >> that's true, rachael but a lot of things changed since then. he was hung up in that wave and he has hills to climb. >> it's his best message i think. >> i think it's his only message. i don't know whether it's c convincin convincing. >> he's had heavy people with social conservatives. >> he has to show that. he did very well in iowa and then he didn't do well tonight and he didn't do extremely well in new hampshire. he's doing better than paul is not exactly the way you run for vice president and i also think that what struck me is he was not as coherent tonight and as impressive. in iowa he almost had you having goosebumps. i was looking at ahis grandfather's hands. tonight he was almost ron paulish, all over the place as an orator, and i think it's probably because he is dialing back in his own mind that he's run willing for vice presidenni running back the convention he and gingrich had in the last debate. we'll see whether he is less contentious monday night and becomes obviously running for vice president but i repeat, i predict there's going to be a lot of pressure by conservatives for him to get out. >> if rick santorum does stay in the race, and he gets some last minute infusion of funding now so that he can stay in the race, if you follow that check back to where it comes, it will come from belmont, massachusetts, and mitt romney or somebody close to mitt romney keeping him in. we'll wrap for now. headed into the 9:00 hour nbc pron projected newt gingrich is the winner in south carolina. the question is by what margin and who comes in third and fourth behind mitt romney. this is msnbc's continuing cover annual of the south carolina primary. we'll be right back. the former speaker of the house is the winner of the south carolina primary. we're expecting to hear his speech shortly. stay with us for that. mitt romney will finish second tonight. rick santorum and ron paul will follow. from terms of the allocation of delegate, remember all of the primaries are allocating delegates. 25 delegates at stake tonight in south carolina, half of the number that south carolina would be expected to have under normal circumstances. the republican party nationally has penalized any state that goes before february 1st, by taking away half of their delegates. the way they're allocated in south carolina is actually going to be interesting to watch. you get two delegates for winning each of the six congressional districts in the state of south carolina. and then the person who gets the overall largest proportion of the vote in the state gets the remaining 11 delegates. so you end up getting essenti essentially winner take most tonight. one of the things we're going to be watching is whether or not newt gingrich is able to take all of the delegates in south carolina. john harwood has been speaking with the white house the obama campaign about their reaction to tonight's results. john? >> rachel i just wanted to run through the reaction of three big players, othe obama campaig said newt gingrich is a candidate does very well when he's down but not when he's at success. watch how he performs he gets cocky and sometimes overplays his hand. second the romney campaign, steve schmidt was making the point about the romney campaign needing to go on offense against newt gingrich and a romney adviser told me that's exactly what they plan to do. newt's ethics are going to become the issue. they learned a lesson in south carolina they're going to apply in florida and finally i had a conversation with rick tyler, rachel you talked to earlier on air about the road ahead for that super pac. several big investors, potential investors in that super pac, remember they relied a lot on $5 million from sheldon adelson a single guy wanted to see how the south carolina results came out before deciding whether to invest in the super pac. they appear to be on track for a double-digit, greater than double-digit victory. rick tyler thought they could raise $10 million for the florida campaign over the next ten days. the mitt romney campaign already spent $6 million in florida. they can expect to match that at least over the next ten days but if rick tyler is right, $10 million of newt gingrich ad spending over ten days would be plenty for him to get his message out and compete and try to ride this momentum wave. >> john harwood of "the new york times" thank you. i appreciate that. david axelrod tweeted tonight, i got this from ed schultz, "at bulls game with my daughter, lauren. think being how turnovers late in the game can kill you. must be thinking same over at romney hq." obviously trying to start another fight with romney folks. but you got to think that the white house is, the obama campaign is excited about this, don't you? >> well, i tell you who is not excited about what john just said, that's rick santorum. if rick santorum is going to hang around he's got a heck of a lot of money he has to raise pretty doggone fast and adelson is going to throw more money newt gingrich, we have a two-man race right now. >> in terms of florida gingrich, you got to remember in the citizens united world, happy birthday, you're 2 today, we've got the campaign and the ostensibly unrelated super pac. when we were speaking with rick tyler earlier tonight a former gingrich spokesman but not technically speaking on behalf of gingrich becauser' running the super pac which has nothing to do with the campaign. if you asked the campaign him, r.c. hammond the gingrich spokesman told reporters tonight the campaign's florida underestimated ta they have a "kick ass" operation that is largely put out of view of the political press. they point out gingrich has yet to have any ads in florida. if a $10 million investment in florida is true, if they have a competent staff on the ground could $10 million be enough to make a huge dent in florida? >> i think what matters is momentum and the ability to command the free media. you don't need to have as much money necessarily as romney. you need to have enough to win. sheldon adelson wrote a $5 million check, newt gingrich wins by 15, 16 points. there's nothing stopping him from writing a $15 million, $20 million check, he's a multimillion-dollar billionaire. if the super pac is capitalized looking ahead to super tuesday we could have a blackbuster fight over the next five weeks here. >> how much does it matter rick santorum gets out. >> you have to look at the race this way. it seems the conservative base of the party is rejecting mitt romney, but secondly if you're rick santorum, you know that any given moment of any given day newt gingrich could pull the pin and blow himself up. i think the obama campaign is exactly right. he does well when he's down but he has trouble handling success, and if romney's been rejected, and gingrich blows himself up there's only one other candidate left, rick santorum. does he have enough resources to keep it going much past florida? i don't think he can sustain a race if he's in single digits after the florida primary but he'll be a factor in the debates, he'll be a factor over the next ten days and we'll see how much of a factor he is after that. >> lawrence, harwood reported about the obama campaign's perception that these guys don't, that newt gingrich in particular doesn't handle success well. >> right. >> we've been talking about the bubble candidates, who is the new bubble. what he's talking about is that the bubbles are in a lava lamp that they form, go to the top and as soon as they get to the top they burst and disappear. >> i think the biggest mistake gingrich is making in the next 24 hours is doing "meet the press." his daughters canceled their media appearances after his very, very successful debate because they thought he'd handled it. he gets in more trouble in a one on one environment with someone like david gregcy than he will ever get in, in the debates. he's very good in the debates. he's strangely unarmed in the one on one thing. i would cancel "meet the press" immediately. >> is it "meet the press" where he said paul ryan was right wing, and "if anybody quotes me they're lying." >> he doesn't handle that environment. he's an erratic man, we've known this for a very long time. he has -- the thing about debates that are so good for him is that structured use of time gives newt, while you're talking and you're talking and you're talking at the debate, it gives newt time to think, and then he -- >> cuts off his answer. >> david doesn't give him time to think and then he'll have problem. >> he's be sticking his foot in his mouth. i think he will blow it on the one on one interview. >> what you are seeing through the sea of cameras held aloft is the father exuberant scene at newt gingrich's headquarters. newt gingrich is due to be wading through that up to the podium at any moment. as soon as he gets near a microphone that can pick up the sound of his voice we'll immediately go to that. seems like a scrum at this point. everyone is running out their cell phone batteries. >> how do you think he plays this? >> i think he's going to pull the triumphant i'm going to kill you vibe. >> i think he's going to play adelson's tune, go tough on the middle east, go tough on cuba, play on the jewish community in florida. he's going to play the vibraphone, he can hit all of the zones tonight. he's going on to florida. >> the vibra phone and the errogenous zones. i thought rick santorum was going to give a really good speech and rick santorum gave the worst speech we've seen on a national. >> i've worked for years for senator rick santorum i never expect him to give a good speech, i never saw him give a good speech in the senate for all of the years he was there. it surprised me he was able to pull one off in iowa that seemed credible, but you know, the one problem he has is that the political establishment has never regarded him as a serious candidate and nothing has happened so far that makes him a serious candidate. >> we've seen three underwhelming speeches. one of the florida races is the i-4 corridor where you have a lot of unemployed aerospace engineers and workers as the space program lost a lot of jobs, that's another area adding to chris's list where you might see a shout out from newt gingrich, see if he reaches out to a lot of those workers in the i-4 corridor in florida. >> i think he'll reach out but i don't think newt gingrich is a great speaker. he's a combat fighter. he's good in exchanges in combat but in ortory or one on one interviews that's not him. he has to have the fight. he loves the fight. if you're looking for a soaring orator you won't find it in gingrich. >> i enjoy his speeches. i don't know if i find them agitating but the fact that he is so bluntly confrontational i find keeps me interested because i never know what he's going to say. >> he'll be that. the other thing he doesn't handle victory well but the advantage he has, there's only one person that handles victory and defeat worse than him and that's mitt romney. >> florida has a lot to offer the candidates and the american people. it's got a housing market in terrible shape. it's got high unemployment, as steve just said about the engineering phase of it. it's got a senior citizens population that is nervous about the ryan plan. there's a lot of republicans in that state that are nervous about okay just how far are the republicans going to go with the big three, medicare, medicaid and social security. there's meat on the bone for the candidates to go after. >> what do you think happens with the ron paul factor moving forward? we know that ron paul is not planning on hotly contesting florida because he says it's all about delegates. he said that tonight ex-plex italy, delegates are the name of the game and winner take all in florida. there will be no real reason for him to spend money at all. he's moving on to the caucus states. whoever comes out of florida alive is still going to have to contend with him down the road and with answering whatever demands he's going to make. >> ron paul is a protest candidacy. he does not belong in the serious analysis of what's happening in the republican primary. he's going to carve out a small percentage of the vote which when he stops running will go either to president obama or sit at home or then split up to newt gingrich or whoever is left. >> he has 600 delegates and the republican says huh? >> he's not going to have any serious collection of delegates. he'll be ignored, won't get a speech. he is running in this thing, he's a libertarian running in this thing so we will talk about him as if something real is happening. he's never going to win anything, and you know, it's just this little prarentheses yu put over here and watch the real candidate. he'll never get out of the race. all he has to do is get a bus ticket with the next debate. >> and keeps dlekting delegates. >> nothing that matters. >> i know you think it's wrong of me to bring it up and it's not serious. in nevada the republican party was destroyed by john ensign. the nevada republican party ceased to exist. who took it over the ron paul people they stepped into the vacuum. mitt romney is already spending money there. mitt romney does not have to worry about the newt gingrich apparatus in nevada. he has to deny ron paul an outright victory. ron paul continues to go after delegate because he's going to use them for something. >> he has nothing he's going to use them for. >> just doing it for fun? he doesn't want a speech. >> legalize drugs and stop all wars. he's just a protest candidate. >> so what does he want, the platform to change? >> he wants attention. he wants his ideas thought about. he's getting that. he represents a significant slice of the american electorate that is interested in a third party. these people are not represented and will not be represented in any way by the republican nominee. they won't be represented by the democratic nominee. what they are interested is ult patly a third party that's viable. if you ran the third party it would get probably 8% of the vote. >> will it be disruptive if he's got delegates on the floor will they be disruptive and in many ways play into the immediate why to get their message out and hurt the unity at the party? he will have delegates on the floor. >> i don't think he's going to do anything to make in his mind a mockery of what he's trying to do. he's trying to put together a movement. he talked about how many votes he got four years ago and how much of a movement -- >> how much four years from now. >> so he wants to be recognized as somebody who has brought people who are on his issues together, the fed and get out of wars and the budget and the constitution and everything else. >> how does he do that if they ignore him in. >> that's why he didn't go off the rails. he has to remain somewhat credible and not become dismissed later on, and that's a high wire act he's doing right now. i think that's basically where it's at. >> i think we patronize the ron paul movement at our peril. over the last eight years, not just the last four years but with the ron paul movement the republican party has no energy greater than the energy around the ron paul candidacy and he decided not to run as a libertarian candidate this time. he's done that in the past, not doing it, building toward something. there are no young people evident in any other rallies who are not either bussed in from byu for mitt romney or related by birth, marriage or some sort of cousin structure to one of the other candidates. there's no young people who are participating in republican party politics right now who aren't either related or interested in ron paul. so i think we can be pay troonizitroon i patronizing but it bites us. >> i'm sitting on the edge of my seat waiting to see how newt does this speech. this is a big victory tonight, changes the landscape depending on how the money comes in. he's got santorum thinking about whether he should say in the race or not. does newt come out and hammer mitt romney for all the negativity? does he go after the media tonight? does he put to rest all of his personal history? is that all gone now? has he gone over that hill and on to other things? it's going to be interesting to see how aggressive newt is tonight. >> wouldn't you go after the media if you were him? if i were him and sing a lullaby to john king. >> in his personality, in his character, it's light newt to come out and say something about the negativity of the news media, and -- >> it's a conspiracy against conservatives. >> i try id ied to go positive, wouldn't let me do it, they got in my history, i'm a changed man, i'm redempted. >> they have to say they shot everything at me and i won, because he's got to put behind him whatever stuff he thinks they're going to try to throw at him in florida and on "meet the press" in the morning. he has to try to put a period on the story with his wife, a period on the other stuff and act like all of this expunges that. it may not work. >> how much does he talk about ronald reagan tonight? >> let's go to andrea mitchell who is with us from washington. what are you hearing tonight? >> there will the not be a jeb bush in florida. that's a big deal. there were some inaccurate reports, mark silva interviewed jeb bush and he is not following bush 41, his own dad's lead. the fact that he's going to be silent he is clearly the most popular politician in florida. >> andrea as we wait for newt gingrich to come out and give his speech and all speculating and placing fake bets on what he's going to do in his speech the largest context has been the open hostility of much of the republican establishment to newt gingrich ever since he seemed remotely credible in this candidacy. are we seeing any other signs of the establishment moving to coalesce or firewall around mitt romney or any establishment figures moving toward gingrich? >> you don't see establishment figures moving toward gingrich at all. i think what you're seeing is shock among the republican establishment because they thought that mitt romney on paper was the front-runner, was someone who could nail it, could be the most electable. the biggest change that happened tonight was that gingrich has co-opted the electability issue with his debate performances. people in this election in south carolina, contrary to what happened in new hampshire, viewed gingrich as much more electable against barack obama. it's clear everyone in the republican party, those who were against the white house, want to defeat barack obama, but now they are seeing gingrich as being the guy to do it because of his debate performances and the debates trumped paid media. whatever sheldon adelson puts into the gingrich coffers in florida will be helpful. gingrich did this even though he had a 2:1 disadvantage in paid media, combining the super pacs and the campaign ads in south carolina. the fact is he did it on the debates and our big debate coming up monday night is going to be the next big act here. >> andrea mitchell thank you very much, joining us from washington. steve schmidt you hear what andrea said about the establishment and shock with what happened with newt gingrich, speaking for the republican establishment which is hilarious, put yourself in their shoes. what's the panic button you hit if you are freaked out newt gingrich will get the nomination. >> we're not moving to a coalescing of support with the establishment of newt gingrich, probably moving toward a declaration of war on newt gingrich by the republican establishment. if newt gingrich is able to win the florida primary, you will see a panic and a meltdown of the republican establishment beyond my ability to articulate in the english language. people will go crazy and you will have this five-week period until the super tuesday states that's just going to be as unpredictable, tumultuous as any period in modern american politics. it will be a remarkable thing to watch should that happen in florida. >> is there a component of that, building a firewall around mitt romney? protecting him? we saw the establishment doing that, romney helping saying you can't talk about bain. bain has to be positive. don't undercut that at all. to me was a flashing red neon arrow, here's my glass jaw, please don't hit it. is there a way to protect romney other than the wrong approach they've taken on bain? >> i think everybody in the establishment republican circles of washington, d.c., is fixated on the numbers we talked about earlier, that newt gingrich has 100% name i.d., has a 60% national unfavorable number and it's a number that's so high that with the 100% name i.d., it's just impossible to come back from. you're not electable in a general election in a 2012 presidential election if your unfavorable numbers are that high particularly against a president while vulnerable is still a net positive in that number. i think that people look at newt gingrich and don't see him as a plausible candidate in the general election and the republican establishment who thinks that the president is vulnerable and beatable is going to begin to meltdown if gingrich's momentum continues. also something important to remember, there are 33 house republicans and districts that barack obama won. what is the impact in terms of republicans being able to keep the house of representatives and majority control if newt gingrich was the nominee of the party? quha is the impact in the united states senate races where republicans have a great chance of taking majority control of the united states senate? with newt gingrich as the nominee of the party, that is perhaps all up in the air. >> lawrence, with the anti-establishment part of the republican party getting so much press over the last couple of years, is there enough anti-establishment horsepower in the republican party that they could look at that sort of reaction that steve is describing and say you know what? old guard, back room guy, forget it, we're going with newt anyway? >> we can use terms like establishment, i did myself but there is no power in establishment or anti-establishment because of the primary process, it opens it up to anyone, it opens it up to voters. the voters control these outcomes as they're doing here tonight and they're going to make their own decisions about this. it's been a stunning flow of unpredict ablgt as this thing has gone along and voters are reacting to things in ways we could not have expected. the married vote, of the married vote, 40% voted for gingrich, 29 for romney. in other words, the married vote, voted virtually identical to the whole. the unmarried vote in the same protr proportion virtually identical to the whole. what about the marriage discussion mean to the gingrich candidacy the answer so far in the limited sample is it meant absolutely nothing. now who in american politics would have predicted two weeks ago if one of the republican former wives or current wives comes out and says he was interested in an open marriage there for a while, wouldn't we all have thought, well that's the end of that. >> in south carolina. >> in south carolina, the bible belt. >> the debate sponsored by the national organization for marriage. >> gingrich knows because he studied it closer than the rest of us, we surpassed france in our divorce rate a long time ago. the french are timid in this area now compared to us. there isn't a person in america who doesn't have a man they love, a son, a brother, a father, an uncle, someone, who hasn't been divorced. newt knows that the country has caught up to dealing with divorce in a way that we in the political media had not yet caught up with and i think tonight the problems of divorce, the aftermath problems of divorce, what an ex-wife might say or ex-boss might say issing with america processed before we got to this election. >> that hurdle is gone now. >> i can't find anywhere in the exits, show me somewhere where this discussion by newt's second wife somehow hurt him. >> we'll take a quick break and we are expecting to hear in a moment from newt gingrich, this long awaited speech tonight. the south carolina republican primary where newt gingrich is the projected winner. we expect to hear from him right after. newt gingrich the projected winner of tonight's republican primary in south carolina, the first time in history that three different republican candidates have won iowa, new hampshire and south carolina. newt gingrich taking the stage, taking the podium right now at his campaign headquarters. let's listen. >> newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt! newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt, newt! >> dan and louise. [ cheer iing ] >> newt can win! newt can win! newt can win! newt can win! newt can win! newt can win! newt can win! newt can win! >> okay. >> it's a whole new world! newt! >> okay, let me first of all say thank you to everyone in south carolina who decided to be with us in changing washington. [ cheers and applause ] callista and i are particularly happy to have our daughters, our son-in-laws, two chief debate coaches, maggie and robert, who are both right here, and we're delighted to have my sisters are here, robby and susan, just terrific. i also want to recognize several people who are just extraordinarily important in south carolina, making this happen. judge billy and deborah wilkins, just really took over and did a great job. my former colleague, former congressman john nappier did such a great job putting things together statewide. house majority leader kenny bingham helped us with the statewide network, speaker hobby harrel was tremendous, we traveled the last several days together. andrea bauer and vivon long tremendous helping us, peter mccoy was remarkable and finally i want to say we had a team on our staff who worked endless hours week after week. they did a great, great job. >> a whole new world! >> there are so many things, callista and i have so many memories from so many parts of the state. everybody, including people who, by accident or misinformation, were for the other candidates. [ laughter ] but everybody was nice to us everywhere, and i just want to say that i think south carolina showed southern hospitality as beautifully as anyplace we've been. [ cheers and applause ] i also want to mention in particular general livingston, who is a congressional medal of honor winner, who gave me the great honor in yorktown of introducing me yesterday and to the man of that courage and that patriotism and dedication and freedom come out and support us meant a great deal and everybody, it was a remarkable evening and i'm grateful for that moment of patriotism. [ cheers and applause ] >> the biggest thing i take from the campaign in south carolina is that it is very humbling and very sobering to have so many people who so deeply want their country to get back on the right track. [ cheers and applause ] so many people who are so concerned about jobs, about medical costs, about the everyday parts of life, and who feel that the elites in washington and new york have no understanding, no care, no concern, no reliability, and in fact, do not represent them at all. in the two debates we had here, in myrtle beach and then in charleston, where people reacted so strongly to the news media, i think it was something very fundamental that i wish the powers that be in the news media would take seriously. the american people feel that they have elites who have been trying for a half century to force us to quit being american and become some kind of other system. and the reaction, completely misunderstand what's going on. it's not that i am a good debater. i articulate the deepest felt values of the american people. [ cheers and applause ] you know this is a remarkable system. what makes us different from virtually every other system in the world, we are free and because we're free, we can produce leadership from an amazing range of places. now sometimes that leadership is good, we once had an actor who made movie with chimpanzees. he turned out to be one of our greatest presidents and ended up with the disappearance of the soviet empire. we once had a peanut farmer, nuclear physicist, he didn't turn out to be quite as good, but the genius of america is that you can come from any background. i watched tonight the fine speeches of the other three candidates on our side. and i was struck with how much they reflected the openness of the american system. you know, rick santorum showed enormous courage in iowa when he had no money, nobody covered him, and he just kept campaigning. >> v.p.! v.p.! >> i rest my case, he has made an impact, right? here is a guy who articulates the values of social conservatism, who articulates the importance of manufacturing and who may have been as right about the dangers of iran as anybody in this country in the last ten years. and then as a further example of how wide open our system is, you have dr. ron paul, who on the issue of money and the federal reserve, has been right for 25 years. and while i disagree with him on many other things, there's no doubt that a lot of his critique of inflation, of fiat money into the federal reserve is absolutely the right direction and it's something i can support strongly. and finally, governor romney, with whom i disagree on many issues, is nonetheless a good example of america. he's hard working. he has been very successful. he has organized large systems. he did a terrific job at the winter olympics, and the fact is, if you look at the four of us, we are proof that you can come from a wide range of backgrounds and in america, you have a chance to try to make your case no matter what the elites think in new york and washington. >> usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! >> well, you sort of just now captured the heart of this campaign. the fact is, we want to run not a republican campaign. we want to run an american campaign. [ cheers and applause ] because we are optimists about the future, because america has always been optimistic about the future, and we believe as our new sign which just got made today points out that if we unleash the american people, we can rebuild the america that we love. now, i believe and callista and i decided to run because we, after a year of conversation concluded that this is the most important election of our lifetime. if barack obama can get reelected after this disaster [ boos ] right, just think how radical he would be in a second term. >> no more years! >> so i have a proposal, with your help, we are now moving on to florida and beyond. [ cheers and applause ] and i want you to know that if, and by the way, anyone here who knows anyone in florida, please contact them by sometime tomorrow, okay? and my good friend, luis knows many people in florida and i'm confident he'll have an impact. if i do become your nominee, and i think with your help i will become your nominee, but i need your help. together. if that happens, and it's all up to all of us to work to make it happen, if that happens, then i will challenge president obama to seven three-hour debates, to be fair, to be fair, i don't want you to be disappointed, but i already have conceded that he can use a teleprompter if he wants to. after all, if you had to defend obama care, wouldn't you want to be able to use a teleprompter? now there are a number of key issues that we have to talk about with the president. >> repeal it! >> i'm going to get there in a second. [ laughter ] i believe this campaign comes down to economics, including jobs, economic growth, balancing the budget, the value of money, comes down to national security, what threatens us, what we have to do about it, but the centerpiece of this campaign i believe is american exceptionalism versus the radicalism of saul alinsky. >> usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! >> well, you know, there's a lot to just doing that, because the fact is, what we are going to argue is that american exceptionalism, the american declaration of independence, the american constitution, the american federalist papers, the founding fathers of america are the source from which we draw our understanding of america. he draws his from saul alinsky, radical left wingers and people who don't like the classical america. and one of the issues we're going to address head-on. >> she would be a great first lady and with your help she will be a great first lady. one of the key issues and i'm prepared to take this straight at the president and frankly straight at the elite media. one of the key issues is the growing anti-bigotry issues of our growing elites, and if you go to newt.org, my campaign site there's a 54-page paper there on the balance of power, putting the judiciary back in its proper role in eliminating dictatodict big ats such as justice berry in san antonio who issued a ruling not only could the students not pray at their graduation, if they used the word "benediction" the word "invocation," the word "god," asked the audience to stand or a moment of silence he would put the superintendent in jail. [ boos ] now we don't have speech dictatorship in america by anti-religious bigots, period. the second big theme, frankly, is one that every south carolinian understands. it's jobs, economic growth, balancing the budget, having stable money, and let's be very clear, and again this makes some of the elite media nervous. president obama has been historically the most effective food stamp president in american history. i worked with ronald reagan to create jobs and 16 million jobs were created by the american people in the 1980s. i worked with bill clinton, a democrat to create jobs and 11 million jobs were created by the american people during the four years that i was speaker. i would like to be the best paycheck president in american history and i want to go into every neighborhood of every ethnic background in every part of the country and say to people very simply, if you want your children to have a life of dependency and food stamps, you have a candidate as barack obama. if you want your children to have a life of independenenindc paychecks, you have a candidate that's newt gingrich, and i'll bet you we have votes everywhere. >> newt, newt, newt, newt, newt! newt, newt, newt, newt, newt! >> part of jobs in the economy is to shrink the power of washington. i just talked tonight with governor rick perry who is deeply committed. i was very generous for his endorsement this week. his passion is implementing the tenth amendment. we are going to work with him to return power to the states, to local governments to get it out of washington, d.c. the one reason that i ask you to be with me and not just for me, if we shrink the washington bureaucracy, we have to grow citizenship back home to fill the vacuum. i am also committed to getting back to a balanced budget and since i am the only speaker of the house in your lifetime to have helped create four consecutive balanced budgets, i think i can tell you as president, i will work very hard to get back to a balanced budget as rapidly as possible, and then to run a surplus to pay down the debt so no chinese leverage exists on the united states by having our debt. part of our long-term national security has to be having an american energy policy. i want america to become so energy independent that no american president ever again bows to a saudi king. and let me give you an example of a common sense conservatism that solves problems. you have well over $29 billion of natural gas offshore. if and as president i will authorize on the very first day the development of it. that natural gas offshore will create jobs that in louisiana average $80,000 apiece. in addition, it generates royalties. part of the royalties should be used to modernize the port of charleston which affects one out of every five jobs in south carolina. but it's not enough just to find the money. the corps of engineers current bureaucracy is so long and so stupid that they currently take eight years to study not to do the project, to study the project. we fought the entire second world war in three years and eight months. now if you can beat nazi germ knee, fascist and japan in eight months it is almost unimaginable it takes eight years to study the project. so i want to fundamentally overhaul the entire federal government at every level to produce a modern, lean, effective federal government. let me also say that the president's decision to veto the keystone pipeline -- [ boos ] you know, you have to wonder how out of touch with reality this administration is. >> he's clueless! >> it's one thing to say that they can't play chess at the white house. it's another thing to say they can't play checkers at the white house. but if they can't play tic tac toe, the president says no, we don't want to you build a pipeline from central canada straight down with no mountains intervening to the largest petrochemical center in the world, houston so we would make money on the pipeline, make money on managing the pipeline, make money on refining the oil and make money in the ports of houston and galveston shipping the oil. we don't want to do that because barack obama is taking care of his extremist left wing friends in san francisco. they think that will stop the oil from getting out. no, what prime minister harper who by the way is a conservative and pro-american, what he has said is he's going to cut a deal with the chinese and they'll build a pipeline straight across the rockies to vancouver. we'll get none of the jobs, none of the energy, none of the opportunity. now, an american president who can create a chinese-canadian partnership is truly a danger to this country. but it gets worse. last sunday the saudis announced a deal with the chinese to build nuclear energy facilities in saudi arabia. the saudis are saying we so distrust the obama administration we'd rather rely on the chinese. the iranians for two weeks taunt us with exercises aimed at closing the straits of hormuz, and the obama administration answer is to cancel military exercises with israel because we don't want to provoke the iranians. president obama is a president so weak that he makes jimmy carter look strong. may i just say the debate we'll have with president owe ba mark the outlying of the two america, the america of the declaration of independence, the america of saul alinsky, the america of paychecks, the america of independence, the america of dependence, the america of strength in foreign policy, the america of weakness in foreign policy. those two choices i believe will give the american people a chance to decide permanently whether we want to remain the historic america that has provided opportunity for more people of more backgrounds than any country in history or whether in fact we prefer to become a brand new secular european style bureaucratic social system. [ boos ] i agree with you. i'm running because callista and i looked at the future for maggie and rob theert and decided no, we're not going to go the route of obama and these kind of radical ideas. so in order to carry out this great debate, to rally the american people to reasserting their belief in america, to winning the election decisively this fall, to profoundly changing washington starting on day one, when, by the way, we apoll bollish all the white house czars -- to do that, to do that we need to build on this victory by going to florida. i need your help in reaching out to people in florida. i need your help in finding anybody who believes in what we're doing and telling them to go to newt.org, my first name to sign up, donate, to get involved. we don't have the kind of money that at least one of the candidates has, but we do have ideas and we do have people, and we proved here in south carolina that people power with the right ideas beats big money, and with your help we're going to prove it again in florida. thank you and good luck and god bless you. ♪ >> newt gingrich, who nbc news projects has won the south carolina republican primary tonight, speaking to a very, very, very happy room of newt gingrich supporters. let's go first to chris matthews for response to that speech. chris? for response to that speech. chris? >> quickly he offered himself up as the defender of america as opposed to mitt romney who offered himself up as the defender of capitalism. i think he was much more grand than mitt romney tonight. much more the leader, the winner if you will. i thought it was grandiose, it was mag nan mouse. he included his political rivals in his family giving a role to each of them including ron paul and rick santorum. he is confident tonight, rachel. >> i will say we had thought that he might go after the media tonight which is both his favorite target and the republican audience a soft target. he did not disappoint. joining us is tony perkins the president of the family research council. as one of the social conservative leaders who met last weekend and endorsed rick santorum. thank you very much for being with us tonight. >> good evening. >> i want to defer to ed shultz for the first question. >> good to have you on the program tonight. your group down in texas made a decision to go with rick santorum over newt gingrich. how solid is your group behind santorum in the wake of this, which seems to be a stunning gingrich win, in south carolina tonight? would this group shift and go back to newt gingrich? take us down that road? >> good question, ed. let me be clear, i was a spokesman for the group. my organization has not endorsed a candidate tochlt your question about the group and what they did, 75% of the super majority of those gathered and decided that rick santorum was somebody they could support. i don't think they leave. the reason they supported rick is they had the polling data and they saw the trends in south carolina. this has been a remark able week, if you think about it. it has been a bad week for romney, because he went in with two victories under his belt, a third anticipated and he comes out of the state with one victory. now newt has a victory and santorum has a victory. i don't think santorum support -- and i'm in florida right now, have been here the last two days at different ev t events, i don't think his support diminishes. the path to the nomination has gotten longer which means more road hazards and with newt driving people anticipate there could be some issues along the way that could be an opening for santorum. >> i know throughout your history of activism and the mission of the family research council has been to the try to get a strong government voice for what you see are family values that should be promoted in some cases through policy. is part of the worry abouting in inspection moving forward, not just that he's had a complicated moral, sexual marriage history of his own, but that he has been hypocritical advocating things for the country that he hasn't been able to do himself. does personal hypocrisy play in to the effectiveness of a government spokesperson for your ideas? >> i think it is an issue of there are questions that were brought up, even this week, that play to the character issue. again, people, and you have talked about this tonight on the show when you talk about evangelicals being forgiving. they understand people changing their lives and coming in to a relationship with jesus christ, but that does not answer the issue of someone's capability of leading. so there is concern over that. there's concern over whether or not he would be that consistent, stable leader. but i think it's going to be interesting. i don't think rick -- rick is not going to get out of the race. he said that tonight. he's going to be in florida. newt, i thought as chris talked about, i thought it was a good speech tonight but it sounded a little bit like the newt gingrich back before christmas when he was at the top of the poll s in iowa. he's almost kicked over the nomination process and talking about a general election. i think that makes him vulnerable if he overlooks mitt romney and rick santorum in this process. and as you pointed out, rightfully, ron paul cannot be ignored in this process. >> mr. perkins, reverend al sharpton. you are right about forgiving personal character questions, but what about social policies? this whole demonizing of poor people and dealing with those that need help. isn't it part of the christian spirit and the evangelical community to really reach out, as jesus did, to those that are under privileged and that need help, rather than demonize them. when we hear mr. gingrich talk about food stamp people and food stamp president when there were 14.7 million food stamp americans under president bush and doesn't truth and being understanding of the poor also fit in to the christian spirit? >> i think it does. i think what we talk about is avenues of approach in dealing with those issues. i don't think the solution is necessarily in any party but the policies adopted. obviously the difference here is the republican party thinks that, believes that the way to solve those issues of important pompbt pofrt in opportunity is to create opportunity through the private sector. i think that is the contrast that newt gingrich was making tonight in contrasting his policy ideas to that of the president. >> tony perkins, we are grateful to have your time tonight. we know you are in great demand in terms of your perspective on these things. thank you, sir. >> thank you, rachel. >> newt gingrich winning tonight in south carolina. obviously florida is that much more interesting. the interesting thing that will happen in florida is the nbc debate hosted by brian williams in tampa tomorrow. what will happen right now is chris matthews will be hosting for an hour from here on out. i want to the thank steve smit, ed shultz, lawrence o'donnell and reverend al sharpton and everybody who was here tonight. a week ago, lawrence was trying to not be working tonight. >> wanted the night off. >> the republican nominating process is turning out to be long and complicated and really awesome to cover. so thank you for being with us. >> i will go to florida. >> i will go as far as they take me at this point. thank you for being with us here on msnbc. stay tuned for chris matthews. i'm chris matthews in tampa, florida, sight of monday's debate with a special live edition the of "hard ball" on a big, historic night in 2012 presidential campaign. nbc news has projected thatting inning inning has won the south carolina primary which means so far this year we had three contests and three different winners that has never happened before with primaries and it is likely meaning a long primary season ahead of us. gingrich as taken 40% of the vote. romney in a distant second so far. what happened tonight? that's our question tonight. romney began the week, as all remember, as the strong front runner in the state of south carolina and many redikted this would be the night he wrapped up the nominationment didn't happen. two debates changed that and now we see the results. newt gingriching has pulled off an epic political comeback this week. he is totally changed the shape of the race for president going forward with. we will look at how he did it and what it means for the republican contest. can he keep up the big mo going in to florida and beyond chuck, the political director and michael steele is the msnbc contributor, of course and the former charmt of the national republican committee. chuck, i said tonight that newt owns the stage. if he gets on the stage every night he wins. beyond the stage he doesn't have it. mitt romney still has it. is that the division of power now or has newt gone beyond the debate stage. >> that's the question. it is funny you say it that way. what newt is potentially solidified tonight, what we thought would happen in december when he first rose and when it actually happened in south carolina he has become the conservative alternative but the outside conservative alternative. the conservative pop list if you will. mitt romney is the insider's guy, the guy with money and organization. florida is a state that is more conservative of a primary electorate than folks not from florida may realize, but insiders do win those primaries sometimes, though the establishment was upis set big time in that governor's race when rick scott, essentially running on a newt gingrich-style of campaign tea party, little bit anti-media, was filleted, frankly n the main stream media in florida in and it didn't work. he beat the insiders guy in the primary. it is going to be interesting. i think newt not only resurrected himself for the next slot but he may have a chance to win in florida. moving on these primaries will have more conservative voters in them and the question is does newt get the money in time to -- he doesn't have to match romney but make it spending one and a half to one for the long haul and that's an open question. >> let me go back to michael. can he take his brilliant performances on the stage, having sparring partners this the media he's chosen well and used the media to make him look tough. can he take the strong support and raise the amount of money to, as chuck says, keep him in the game. >> i think he can stay in the game. i think rick santorum will get a benefit out of this. i think chuck has it right. i think you have 0 two populous conservatives in newt and rick who have positioned themselves. newt has the edge obviously. both can come out of in florida and make noise on the month and organizational front with the grassroots. romney has to look down the road and go where do we close this off? where do we stop this kind of surge? that's a tough call. you have open primaries that are coming up and caucuses where conservatives will turn out, and if newt can, coming out of here, really pull together those two pieces, that activist, conservative group, as well as the dollars, which i think will flow. i think tonight his website is getting lit up like a christmas tree. he's going to be something to contend with. >> let me ask you about a tougher thing. i love the word dynamics and we use it a lot. could it be that newt is smart enough to go after romney on his tax returns, forcing him to cover up and making people wonder why does this guy have a problem or admitting he is a quarter billionaire and being the great defender of capitalist, can he beat them by joining media demand for his tax returns? >> potentially. i think you saw what romney is going to do. he previewed it earlier today. he said why don't you release your contract with freddy and fanny and i think you will see more tit for tat. how well can he deliver that. he went on the attack in 2008 in debates. he started to turn voters off. it is almost exasperated his free fall. he was, early december, leading in iowa and as huckabee when he started to make a move and tried to get negative with mccain and it didn't work well. it was ugly. can he deliver a punch in a debate? the reagan diaries line was the best line the other night when he was saying i was looking through reagan's diaries and you were only mentioned once. it was a grandiose thing. but nobody rebuts like newt gingrich. >> he needed a teleprompter there. what did romney need a teleprompter for tonight? he just has to get up there and say, look, the economist, the great economist magazine came out this week and said this is what they said about romney, he lacks, commitment, passion, and instinct. >> that's the rub. that's what the base has been clamoring about since this began. get out there and talk to folks from the heart. even if you have lost this moment you can rally people. >> not tonight. >> he didn't do it. >> here's newt gingrich, chuck. let's look at exit polls in south carolina. tamm ran hall has been wa watching it all night. >> one of the factors we have been looking at in the race is the role of religion. it was not a big issue in new hampshire earlier this month but our exit poll shows things are different in south carolina. a solid majority of voters in our exit poll, you see here, 60% said religion matters a great deal or somewhat. these religion-minded voters were primarily white evangelical property stachbts and our poll showed many of them question mormons like mitt romney should be considered christians. and here's how they voted. 46% of them, chris, went to newt gingrich who is of course catholic, but just 19% voted for mitt romney. now let's look at the 40% of voters who said their candidate's religion did not matter. look here. romney edges out newt gingrich in this group, 39 to 32%. going forward the fate issue may well continue to be a factor in the upcoming primaries, especially in the south. chuck, what do you make of that? does it matters if it does they vote against romney? >> that's been the case. i think we have seen this before. anybody who is concerned about his mormon faith, that does happen. we have seen it in polls. the question is does it matter after the primaries are over? i think we have seen it doesn't matter once he would be viewed as a general election candidate. i want to underscore, how complete of a victory this was for gingrich. . look at our map i have behind me. looks like romney may only win two counties. that's charleston. that's sitting there. in charleston he's only going to win by look like three points. he's going to only get 2,000 votes more than gingrich. gingrich wiped the floor with romney in south carolina. i think that's the thing. this 14-point victory, this is big enough that it shakes up everything in this race. the question is how does the establishment react? i think a small victory for newt, five, six, seven points would have had the establishment rally behind romney and help him to get through florida and may be after that he solidifies himself as the true front runner. 134 points makes you wonder, there's clearly a conservative problem for romney and runs deeper than i thought. that that is what the average member of the republican establishment may think. they already think gingrich will lead to a defeat in the house. they have a lot of problems with him as an electable candidate. here's a moment he can present himself as a front runner and leader of the republican party, instead he doubled down on anti-media, anti-elite, that plays well with a chunk of the vote but not the way to unite the party and that found that odd tonight. >> let's hear a bit of it. here's newt gingrich talking about this in his strong way about his debate performances where he did attack, as you say, the news media, certainly making the news of the week. let's listen to him in his victory speech recounting that success. >> in the two debates we had here in myrtle beach and in charleston where people reacted so strongly to the news media, i think it is something very are fundamental that i wish the powers that be in the news media would take seriously. the american people feel they have elite who have been trying a half century to force us to quit being american and become some other kind of system. and the reaction, people completely misunderstand what is going on. it is not that i'm a good debater but i articulate the deepest felt values of the american people. >> well, i don't know about that. i may take objection to that. i'm pretty patriotic and pretty emotional about it actually. like all of us here. i don't know what he is talking about. sometimes i think the media pushes the values of american history to the point where people say why do you have to remind us of our values but i don't think anyone challenged them lately. >> i think newt was reaffirming to those folks who stood with him through the last week of all of the personal stuff that he was representing that voice that has not been part of the discussion. number two with, i think to disagree with chuck a bit, i think he was kind of speaking down the road a bit to those caucus voters. remember, this is not so much about trying to appeal to independents as to make sure conservatives come out to help keep this train going. >> chuck, last word, will this matter -- does florida look like a toss up? how would you call it? >> actually yes. i think it will. it is a little less religious than south carolina, but the conservative primary voter is much more conservative than you find in new hampshire. this is a closed primary. it will be fascinating to watch the cuban-american vote here. the establishment in the cuban-american community is with romney but gingrich speaks to hispanic issues a little better, i think with a little more credibility than romney does, and i think he could split that down this and that makes it jacksonville a race for the business community and steve made a great point about the space community. the space industry down there that feels under siege. newt loves to talk about the space industry and he may connect there. there is a lot of ways for him to grow. and the panhandle will have newt country, as well. >> and a lot of free media. all of those media markets down there. great to have you here. >> a reminder, newt gingrich is on "meet the press" tomorrow. we call that a great get with david gregory. when we return, mitt romney stumbled this week over questions over his tax returns. i'd say mumbled instead of stumbled. our hard ball coverage of the south carolina primary victory of newt gingrich continues in a moment. three years ago, we had nothing but promises and slogans by which to judge this president. today we have a record of deficits, decline and debt. president obama likes to remind us that elections have consequences. well, today the consequences are clear, and the stakes have never been higher. i have said this before, and i firmly believe that this election is a battle for the soul of america. >> well, he firmly believes what he read on the teleprompter. welcome back to a special edition of "hardball" despite losing overwhelmly by double-digits to newt gingrich, romney gave a speech about president obama and his differences with him. we are joined by eugene robinson of the "washington post." i was just talking to howard off camera. why do you think he doubled down on the toughness of this primary campaign tonight, the media, the food stamps. he hit every one of the buttons he hit all over again tonight. >> you know, my guess would be to try to keep the conservative bandwagon going to solidify that angry, resentful, conservative vote, that part of the conservative vote which helped him a lot here in south carolina. i have to say, krits, i thought the speech was disjointed. it wasn't -- it didn't soar. it did kind of scream and scold and so, maybe that's the effect evidence going for to keep that sort of sense of anger alive. >> he did scratch at the scab tonight. a gross term but he did not let up on the ethnic stuff that we all think is an ethnic thing. the food stamp number of his. >> dickty torial religious biggots who are the judges. i heard him give virtually the same speech yesterday before a big crowd in orangeburg and that was red meat to the people who were hungry for it. he did the same thing tonight. he didn't speak to the whole country or the entire republican party the same hard-core people he was speaking to in orangeburg and his calculation has to be those are the votes he is going for in florida. anything else he gets is great. >> is he going after the panhandle, the white vote in the northern part of florida. >> exactly. the panhandle has to being inning in territory if he is going to do anything in florida. earlier this evening he had a lovely hotel behind me and i ran in to an elegantly dressed older couple, self proclaimed republicans who asked me who was winning and i said newt is winning big and the woman said, if newt wins, obama wins shaen said it with what sounded like disgust and determination. it reminded me that the empire is going to strike back. that the romney campaign and the republican establishments are going to strike back at newt gingrich. and this could be a very, very tough campaign not just in florida but going forward, assuming newt survives florida. >> what do you think it means, gene -- >> to that question, gene. we say the word establishment almost as much as the brits do now. what does it mean if a bunch of big shots in downtown offices decide oh, my god, pull up your skirts it looks like a primitive may win this thing. what can they do that is a line teddy white used to use about the conservatives in the republican party, the primitives. >> it turns out very little here because the republican establishment here was all for romney, and a lot of good it did him. look at that map that chuck just showed. it's just completed wiped the floor with mitt romney. you know, maybe that says something about a fundamental flaw in mitt romney as a presidential candidate. >> yeah. >> or certainly as a republican candidate. >> mitt romney, let's watch some -- not sympathy. i don't think he gets a lot of sich think in my moment. let's listen to what he said when he talked about the contest with him. he's out there running -- i want to get to the clip. go to the clip of success. the republicans said we are going to create jobs and have a lot of money to create jobs. here's romney saying we don't want to create jobs but just be successful and make a lot of money because that's what america is all about. i'm passion nate about our economic liberty because he wants to have more money. it is an incredible claim. i hope we have the clip. >> i'm passionate about our economic liberty because i have witnessed our free enterprise system as it rewards the hard work of many and creates prosperity for all in this great country. over the past few weeks we have seen an assault on free enterprise. we expected it from president obama. we didn't expect republicans to join him. that is a mistake for our nation and our party. ours is the party of free markets and consumer choice. >> i didn't hear the word jobs, i heard the word success, i'm going to release tax returns when these bone heads stop banging and when i will it will show i'm a zillionaire. live wit. >> i think he lost a threat thread. that's what he has got to say. by the way, i know the romney people. i talked to a couple tonight. they are going to unload on newt gingrich even more than before. as they do that they will get in to a fight that will be hard to control. first of all, newt gingrich thrives in that kind of combat. that's his game. that's not mitt romney's game. they are going to be playing newt gingrich's ging game inning inning in's ballpark. that's one. number two, romney has the tax return problem. he's going to doll it out, week after week, day after day. they will put out the first and demand the others. newt gingrich, not by any accident put out his tax returns are right before the debate on thursday night. >> what are you interested in seeing, the house ethics report on newt gingrich for the millionth time or see what this guy is up to, what a great way of saying it. howard fineman, thank you so much and gene robinson, thank you. up next, this wild week in south carolina. what went wrong for romney and right for gingrich? that's a nice way of describing a wipeout. what an amazing night in american politics. you are watching a special edition of "hardball" here on msnbc. well, there's no question the past few days have been very good forring inning in and bad for romney. but with gingrich's with big one tonight, we are watching the republican party, i think, move to the right but we'll see. the co-authors of "game change." both are msnbc political analysts and the top investigative reporter in the country. mike is joining us from d.c. i want the political guys first and the investigator. how do you see it, mark? how is this a plat point in this campaign? >> well, look, newt gingrich leaves here with a head of steam and romney has a ton of challenges if he is going to win florida. people say he is has been organized and spent money we start from scratch. right romney will have to figure out a way to attack gingrich from the right and get momentum back through the debates ortizinging but it will be difficult givingen gingrich's speech and what the exit polls show where gingrich is strong with certain voting groups. >> john? >> i agree with everything mark said. it is a crucial factor florida is a closed primary. so far every primary and caucus we have seen so far you have had voters that come from, you have had independents that voted in addition to republicans and we are looking at a closed primary which is why there is such an advantage that gingrich has. in terms of the money, they will be swamped by one thing in particular. because we had a mixed decision in iowa, no one got a huge bounce out of iowa. when romney did not get a huge bounce out of new hampshire because people expected him to win there thx is the first big, dramatic victory and gingrich will get so much free media attention the next few days. it will be wall to wall gingrich. it is fair to say in some ways the liberal media, as gingrich put it is gunning for gingrich right now. they/we want this race to go on and he will get more attention and more favorable country for the next couple of days than he would ordinarily from people who would give him tougher scrutiny. he will ride a big wave out of here and blow away in terms of the pure number of minutes on the air, all of mitt romney's paid advertising the next few day sfwhs how many voters have voted by absentee in the electorate down there? >> not a lot. not so many that romney can take it as a big cushion. he has a greater share than the rest of the electorate but most are unreturned and this is ten days a long period of time, two debates and momentum matters. the banked votes, as i say will help romney but not enough to be decisive based on the number back. >> john, it seems like mitt romney has two wars to fight, one with the media over tax returns and the other is trying to deal with the heat, the gun who spirit of the gingrich campaign. can he play four-corner offense and keep putting off releases his taxes another ten days. >> i don't think so. if this is one thing the south carolina proved, a defense that romney tried to run doesn't work. i think the tax issue is not going away for him. in part the romney people will say it is unfair. the truth is he has handled the questions so badly. his preparation or lack of preparation, his obvious discomfort talking about his personal wealth, it makes him a target, especially when you couple with the enormity of the personal wealth compared to the other candidates. this is not an issue that is going away. he has to address it quick before it will dog him in florida. >> mike, this question of superer packs and money, it looks like gingrich may be in the process of matching him. is this one dirty story of negative s in florida? >> absolutely, chris. there's some interesting numbers that are worth looking after the vote totals. the romney presidential campaign outspent the gingrich presidential campaign in south carolina by a margin of greater than 3-1. when you look in at superpac spending, the the gingrich superpac matched dollar for dollar the romney superp ac and may have exceeded it. 2.9 million, probably spent more than 3.5 million. now think about that. a couple of things. first of all, that's four to five times more than the gingrich presidential campaign spent. in other words the gingrich superpac, which blanketed the air waves and really, by the way, was the first to inject the whole issue of capital and romney's wealth in to the debate was able to seize the day and dominate this. remember, again, it was bankrolled almost entirely, if not entirely by one guy, sheldon, las vegas casino mogul, 8th richest guy in the country according to forbes magazine with a net wealth of $22 million. it is a huge factor in the race and i think part of the unfolding debate is the role in the superpacs, who's funding them. how indebted is gingrich to one guy like sheldon aidleson and what are his interest. those are central parts of the debate coming up. >> great work, michael. we are hearing perhaps triple that amount of money from the casino owner will be coming from other sources and it can come in quick because it is big money and goes to super committees and it is not limited by anything even identity it could be an infusion of dirty money, not dirty money but legal money going in to dirty campaigns. >> it is worth remembering today is the second anniversary of the citizens united decision that made it all possible. >> yeah, we're all celebrating. thank you, just kidding. up next the democrats seem to be enjoying the right on the right. is this a case of be careful what you wish for? i'm not so sure. i think newt gingrich is a gift that will keep giving in terms of people who love politics, the tougher the better. it will be a more exciting campaign because of his comeback, only on msnbc. the second big theme is one that every south carolinaen understands, it's jobs, economic growth, balancing the budget, having stable money. let's be very clear. again, this makes some of the elite media nervous. president obama has been historically the most effective food stamp president in american history. >> welcome back to msnbc's live coverage of the south carolina primary. that man just won the primary. you have to wonder what the folks at the white house are thinking of gingrich with his big comeback tonight. joining us to analyze it is the dnc chairman and debbie wasserman schultz of florida. and johnathon ailer and cnbc correspondent johnathon har wood. let's talk about the fight right now. congresswoman, what do you think of seven three hour debates in a general election? >> well, what i think is there is going to be plenty of opportunity no matter who the nominee is for voters to see, very clearly, the dramatic and stark contrast between president obama and any of the republican field, whether it is newt gingrich or mitt romney. s this a dramatic difference, particularly because the republican field has been focused on helping to make sure millionaires and billionaires continue to do even better and president obama has been fighting for the middle class and working families. >> would you like to see mitt romney release several years of tax returns? say the 12 years would you like to see near the same amount released by him? >> i think mitt romney needs to come clean and be transparent. it was very clear because mitt romney began this week ahead about 20 points in south carolina that as the week wore on and south carolina voters got to see a little bit more of mitt romney up close and personal, it turns out they didn't like him very much. that is part of the result. you know, you look at the different breakdowns of the returns tonight. mitt romney lost in every income category, except people who made over $200,000 a year. so, that really shows you that he's done a great job demonstrating how much he wants to go to bat for people who are doing well. and the middle class really felt like he wasn't at all interested in them. >> you know, john, that was not a partisan comment just made by the congresswoman because he did, in fact, defend success tonight. he didn't defend making a lot of money to create jobs but he did well in the charleston area, the battery, north of broad, whatever it is. he did basically represent the interest of those who have done well financially in the country. can he get away talking like that and not releasing his returns? >> mae might be able to get away with it in the republican primary but you were talking earlier about the white house view of this. i think they love the way it unfolded with the pressure on romney over taxes, the republican criticism over bane capital and their business model. i think what romney has to do and what one of his advisers told me he is going to try to do is turn the guns on newt gingrich and talk about newt gingrich's ethics and i'm not sure they are going to release those anytime soon. i wouldn't expect it before florida. >> i don't think that is going to work. i don't think the public has the slightest curiosity about newt gingrich's. they have heard about his ethics problems and know what he paid in terms of the ethics deal. and i think they are fascinating with mitt romney's wealth and whether he said 10, 15% or nothing a couple of years. they want to know a situation of a guy who's in the 1% of the 1% and how can he hide it by saying look at newt. >> hey, chris. >> i don't think he should. it is bad politics for him to stone wall and looks like he is hiding something. it probably isn't nearly as bad as the dance he is going through right now. >> why do you say that? why do you think it is not as bad. >> i think where it will mostly show is what we already know. there is some stuff in the cayman islands, which looks bad. he said he didn't go there last week. he didn't send money to prevent himself from paying more taxes. why did he? for the sunshine in the cayman islands? that will probably come out, right? and the damaging thing to him is not how much money he made. everyone knows he is very wealthy. the damaging thing is how low his effective tax rate will be. they don't want that out because it won't look good. interestingly, if newt gingrich's plan were enacted, mitt romney would pay zero taxes because unlike romney gingrich wants to reduce the capital gains tax to zero, which would have -- romney doesn't pay any payroll taxes paying literally nothing in taxes. >> let me get back to the congresswoman. may dam chairwoman it looks like whatever happens in this race, come the general election, if it is romney and he survives the scare he will talk about his taxes. looks like he is walking in to the president's strategy of focusing on tax inequality, economic inequality and the general issue of unfairness. >> absolutely. it is really unbelievable. mitt romney has hung his entire candidacy around his private sector experience and his economic background. we know that capital was a as a corporate raid and someone that deliberately bankrupted companies and if you are going to make the central the tenet of our candidacy our financial success and economic experience you owe it to the people who you are asking to vote for you to release your tax returns so they can get a closer look. his central tenet for his candidacy collapsed around him in south carolina. as he comes to florida, his positions to on medicare, which he wants to end as we know it, allowing people to invest in social security in the market, 60% of the electorate in florida is made of up senior citizens some this field is out of step on the issues that matter to floridanss, which it is seniors, whether it is on immigration and the hispanic community, education, on budget cuts, middle class and working families. i can't wait until they get to florida to be honest with you. >> i don't know who's the more weaker candidate. its the people have had on tonight, from michael steele to schmitt both seem petrified of a newt gingrich nomination. that they don't think he can pass muster with the middle of the country politically. so it looks like they have a guy who is vulnerable and romney a guy who is hopeless. >> i think most republican operatives that are experienced in presidential politics think newt gingrich has no chance of winning a general election with barack obama. i was talking to an obama adviser today and they don't expect newt gingrich will win the nomination. if he should somehow be able to catapult from behind and win florida, which gary hart did when he came from nowhere against walter mondale in 1984, you could have a long republican race, but i think the dominant view still is with mitt romney's advantages financially, institutionally, structurally and the vulnerables of newt gingrich he can grind newt gingrich down over this long march. >> i don't agree with that at all, chris. i really don't. >> quickly, john. >> sure, realliny is still the narrow favorite, but gingrich has a path to this nomination. he's much more in tune with the electorate. the anger is much more connected to where the republican party is. he is a movement con seventive. romney is not. this is a movement conservative party. if he can keep that erratic quality in control, which is a big if, he can go on to win this nomination. >> it will be an interesting battle. we didn't think we would have one. what an interesting week. as a guy on this show i love it. >> good night. when we return, south carolina went for gingrich, but the next ten days will be a fight for florida. a huge, diverse state but a conservative state. we'll be right back and who will win that one. you are watching "hardball" and a special edition only on msnbc. newt gingrich is a big winner tonight. i'm at tampa, the site of the big debate here on nbc. tampa, florida. it is coming up later this month. can romney turn this race around? does gingrich have the hot mo the big mo to pull off another win in florida. joining me is michael steele. steve schmitt was on the show all night and he ran mccain, he was the campaign manager for john mccain in 2008. let's talk about this right now. steve, give me thoughts about it. any chance that my dream could come true that newt gingrich would take on mitt romney and releasing his tax returns? in a no-lose situation because if he doesn't release them he looks like he is hiding something and if he does she paying 1% on a quarter billion dollars a wealth a year he may look like a problem not a solution. >> i think he romney has had a bad a week as anyone has had in presidential campaign season. he will have to turn it around on monday night and one of the ski keys is you have to dispose of the issue with the taxes. he has to communicate with clarity and set a release date. i don't think it is possible for them to release it on monday. i think it is the entire focus of discussion over the next ten days. if i was running the campaign i wouldn't advise him to do it. >> they have them. >> sure. >> steve, you read popeye since you were a kid. wimpy said i'll gladly pay you on tuesday for a hamburger today. you can not tell people you have the tax returns, you own them. you can put them out in ten seconds but you won't if you want them to vote for you, can you? what's the reason for him not put them out right now? he has them. >> his taxes don't look like yours and mine. i'm sure the campaign is going through them and i'm sure it is taking them a long time. >> no, you don't understand you turn your taxes in. you can't complicate this. you turn the taxes in to the government. give us what you turned in to the government. you don't get to doctor them or redo them for the public. give us what you gave the government. what's the excuse for not doing that. >> i don't know if this is an excuse but no way the campaign will release the taxes until the people in the campaign will have responsible for communicating them have an opportunity to understand every aspect of them and there is no doubt they are enormously complicated to understand. i'm sure that is part of what is going on here. there's no question when you look at the unpreparedness of the campaign on the issue and how awkward governor romney has been on it and how awkward he was on the monday debate and no improvement on the debate later in the week with. it's just an area that he's obviously personally deeply uncomfortable with and now it is impacting his campaign in a major way. >> all the more reason to push him. michael steel, your thoughts about the monday night debate. i don't know what brian williams will ask but it will certainly be a hot night for mitt romney and newt. >> i think written wilson won't make the mistake on any subject with newt knowing that he has the fire. >> on that part. >> he will come back. absolutely. he is not be a shrinking violet there. number two with, i think this will be to steve's point, the taxes notwithstanding it will be zero for mitt romney. he has to stop the hemorrhaging in his campaign. the momentum that was lost this week. he has to do the one thing -- i sound like a broken record on this, but he has to find way to pull this base towards him. the more people feel they can coalesce around newt the more they will move away and the tougher the battle is for him. this could very well slip. i don't want to jump too far down the street here, but if he cannot way a way to pull the base toward him and let them know he is not only the most lebltable but i the truest standard bearer for them and their concerns this is going to be a tough, tough road for him. >> let me ask you about newt's strategy. steve the, you are an expert that he doubled down on the angry approach of the week. was he doing it for the sunday papers, or does he believe the message of anti-establish tearianism and media like food stamps is his winning message in florida? >> i think he plays the resentment chord like yo-yo ma plays the cello. it's amazing to watch. he is in tune with big elements of the republican base out there. he is going to play it up for all it is worth. romney is not just capable of matching him retore theically in that space. there were two big things that happened tonight and even more significant forring inning in than winning the south carolina primary tonight is that he closed on the question of who is electable against president obama. you look at those exit polls, for the first time in the race romney has lost ground and i think that is what fuels romney's candidacy and i think gingrich is opening the communications gap against romney. both are not great news for romney. >> can he say to romney if you can't release your tax returns you are not electable? that's what i would do. just thinking outloud here. >> that is a chris matthews question. >> you can think about that don't forget tonight's big winner joins david gregory for "meet the press" tomorrow morning a. and then on monday the republican debate right here in this room in tampa, in florida at 9:00, 8:00 central, that is monday night. the most important debate so far in this campaign if we say so ourselves. see you monday night on "hardball" what a great political week it has been and what a hotter one it will be next week. good night, everybody. . nbc news is projecting neutrogena is tnewt gingrich is the winner of the south carolina primary. rick santorum and ron paul will follow. in terms of the allocations of delegates, remember all of the primaries are about allocating delegates. 25 delegates at stake in south carolina. that's half of the number that south carolina would be expected to have under normal circumstances. the republican party nationally has penalized any state that goes before february 1st by taking away half of their delegates. the way they are allocated in south carolina will be interest ing to watch. you get two delegates for winning each of the six congressional districts in the state of south carolina. and then the person who gets the overall largest proportion of the vote in the state gets the remaining 11 delegates. so you end up getting, essentially winner take most tonight. one of the things we will be watching is whether or not newt gingrich is able to take all of the delegates in south carolina. the "new york times" john harwood is with us from washington. he has been speaking to the obama campaign about their reaction to the results tonight. >> i want to run through the reaction of three big players. first is the obama campaign as you mentioned. their view is newt gingrich is a candidate who does well when he is down but doesn't handle success very well. watch whether gingrich is able to perform at a high level now that he has momentum behind me. he gets cocky and overplays his hand. steve schmitt was making the comment about romney needs to go on the offense against newt gingrich and romney adviser said that is what they plan to do. they learned a lesson in south carolina they will apply if florida. and i had a conversation about rick tyler, who you talked to on the air about the road ahead for that superpac. rick told me that several big potential investors in the superpac. they relied on $5 million from a single guy and he had wanted to see how the south carolina results came out before deciding whether to invest in the superpac. they appear to be on track for a greater than double-digit victory. tyler told me he thought they could i raise $10 million in the next few days. mitt romney campaign has spent $6 million in florida in they can expect to match that the next ten days but if rick tyler is right, $10 million of ad spending for newt gingrich would be plenty for him to get his message out and compete and ride the momentum wave. >> "new york times" john harwood, appreciate that. david axelrod tweeted tonight and i got this from my friend ed shultz who has been on twitter like white on rice. and he tweeted at the bulls game with my daughter and thinking of how turnovers can kill you. obviously trying to start another fight with romney folks. you have to think the obama campaign is excited about this, don't you? >> i will tell you who's not excited about what john said and that is rick santorum. if he is going to hang around he has a heck of a lot of money he has to raise fast anded aleson apparently is going to throw more money behind newt gingrich. we have a two-man race. >> in terms of florida -- you have to remember in the citizens united world. happy birthday, you are 20 today two today. when we were speaking with tyler tonight he is a gingrich guy but not technically speaking on behalf of gingrich because she running the superpac because it has nothing to do with the campaign. the gingrich spokesman told reporters tonight the florida operation has been under estimated and he said and i quote, a kick ass florida operation that has been put together out of the view of the political press and they point that gingrich is yet to run any ads in florida but if what john harwood reported about a $10 million investment in florida is true, if he has not run a single ad yet and they have a competent staff on the ground could $10 million be enough to make a dent in florida? >> i think what mae matters is the momentum and the ability to command the free media. it is more important than ads you don't need as much money as romney but enough to win. sheldon wrote a $5 million check. newt gingrich wins by 15, 16 points nothing stopping him from writing a 15, $20 million check. he is a multibillionaire. he could write 100 millionaire check if he wanted. looking ahead to supertuesday we could have a blockbuster fight the next five weeks. >> how much does it matter whether rick santorum gets out. >> you have to be sitting around the table looking at the race this way. it seems the conservative base of the party is rejecting mitt romney. if you are vic rick santorum you know any given moment of any given day that newt gingrich could pull the pin and blow himself up. the obama campaign is right. he does well when he is down but has trouble handling success. if romney is being rejected and gingrich blows himself up there is only one person left and that is santorum. campaigns end when they run out of money. does he have enough resources to keep got itting much past florida in i don't think he can sustain a race much beyond the florida primary but he will be a factor in the debates and the next ten days and see how much he is after that. >> let me ask you about what har wood reported there that obama's perception that newt gingrich doesn't handle success well. what popped in my mind is we have been talking about the bubble candidates, who's the new bubble. he is talking able the bubbles are in a lava lamp, they form, go to the top and burst and disappear. >> the biggest mistake gingrich is making in the next 24 hours is doing "meet the press." his daughters cancelled their media appearances after his successful debate because they thought he had handled it. he gets in more trouble in a one-on-one environment with one like david gregory than he will get in the debates. he's good in debates. he's strangely unarmed. i would cancel "meet the press" immediately. >> isn't that where he said paul ryan was right wing and said if anyone quotes me they are lying. >> he doesn't handle that environment well, especially when he feels himself on top. >> why to you think that is. >> she an erratic man. we have known this a long time. the thing about debates is the structured use of time gives newt while you are talking and you are talking at the debate it gives him time to think. >> he cuts off his answer. >> david doesn't give him time to think. >> he will be sticking his foot in his mouth. that's the problem. i think he will blow it in the one-on-one interview. >> what you are seeing through the sea of cameras health aloft is the exuberant scene at newt gingrich's headquarters. newt gingrich is due to be wading through that up to the podium at any moment. as soon as he gets near a microphone that can pick up the sound of his voice we will go to that. it seems that everybody is running out there. >> how does he play this? how do you think newt plays this? >> i think he plays it triumphant and confrontational. i think he is going to keep up the i'm going to kill you vibe that served him well. >> i think he will go to florida tonight and play addelson's tune. it will be tough on the middle east and go after castro the, play the cuban community in florida and jewish community in south florida. you will see him play the sprrks ibrophone tonight. you watch him tonight. he will go to florida in a few minutes. >> the vibrophone and roj nous zones. it is terrifying if it wasn't newt gingrich but you are right. i think thought that santorum was going to give a good speech but he gave one of the worst. >> having worked with him i never expect him to give a good speech. never saw him give a good speech in the senate for all the years he was. there it surprised me he was able to pull one off in iowa that seemed credible. the one problem he has is the political establishment never regarded him as a serious candidate and nothing has happened so far that makes them regard him as a serious candidate. >> we saw three under welling well ing speeches. and i think one of the areas is the i-4 corridor where you have a lot of unemployed aerospace engineers and workers as the space program has lost a lot of jobs. that's another area adding to chris' list where you may see a shoutout from newt gingrich. see if he reaches out to the workers in the i-4 corridor. >> i think he will reach out but i don't think that newt gingrich is a great speaker. he is a combat fighter. he is good in debates and exchanges and combat. when he has to stand up and do oratory and one on one interviews that is not him. he has to have the exchange and the fight. he loves the fight. if you are looking for a soaring orator you won't find it in newt gingrich. >> i like to watch his speeches. i don't know if i find them agitating but his -- the fact he is so bluntly confrontational it keeps me interested. >> he will be that. but i think he doesn't handle victory well, but the advantage he has is there's only one person that handles victory and defeat worst than him and that is mitt romney. >> florida has a lot to offer these candidates and the american people. from the standpoint, it's got a housing market that is in terrible shape. >> yep. >> it has high unemployment. steve just said about the engineering phase. it has a senior citizen's population that is nervous about the ryan plan. there's a lot of republicans in that state that are nervous about, okay, just how far are the republican going to go with the big three, medicare, medicaid and social security if they get the power. so there's a lot of facets here, a lot of meat on the bone for these candidates to go after. >> what do you think happens with the ron paul factor moving forward? we know ron paul is not planning to hotly contest florida because he said it is all about delegates. and it is winner take off in florida. so there will be no real reason for him to spend any money there at all. he is moving to the caucus states. that means whoever comes out of florida alive will have to contend with him down the road and with answering whatever demands he is going to make. >> ron paul is a protest candidacy. he does not belong in the serious analysis of what's happening in the republican primary. he's going to carve out a small percentage of the vote which when he stops running will go either to president obama or sit at home or split to newt gingrich or whoever is left. >> so he has 600 delegates and the republican party doesn't care. >> he is not going to have a serious election of dell bates at the convention. he will be ignored and not get a speech. he is running in this thing. he is running in this thing so we will talk about him as if something real is happening. he's never going to win anything. it's just this little parentheses that you put over here and watch the real candidates. >> exceptor for the fact that he did not get out of the race. >> he will never get out of the race. no reason to. all he has to do the is get a bus ticket to the next town. >> and keeps collecting delegates. >> none of it matters. >> i know you think it is not serious but i think it matters in nevada the republican party was destroyed by john inson and by everything that happened on the sharon angle candidacy and the nevada republican party ceased to exist. who took it over? the ron paul people. they stepped in to that vacuum. mitt romney is already spending money there. he does not have to worry about the newt gingrich apparatus in nevada. he has to worry about trying to deny ron paul an out right victory there. he continues to go after delegates because he's going to use them for something. >> he has nothing he is going to use them for. not one thing. >> just for fun? >> he wants to legalize drug thes, stop all wars guy speech. >> he said he doesn't want them. what does he want? >> he wants attention. he wants his ideas thought about. he is getting that. he represents a significant slice of the american electorate that is actually interested in a third party. these people are not represented and will not be represented in any way by the republican nominee. they won't be represented by the democratic nominee. what they are interested in is a third party that is viable and if you ran that third party it would probably get 8% of the vote. >> would they be disruptive if he has delegates on the floor, will they be disruptive and in many ways play to the media to get their message out, hurt the unity they will have. he will have delegates on the floor. >> i don't think he is going to do anything to make, in his mind a mockery of what he has tried to do. he has tried to put together a movement. he talked about how many votes he got four years ago. he wants to be recognized as somebody who has brought people who are on his issues together, the fed, the get out of war an the budget and the constitution and everything else. >> how does he do that if they ignore him. >> that's why he can't go off the rails. he has to remain somewhat credible and not be dismissed later on. that's a high wire act he's doing right now. i think that's basically where it is at. >> i think we patronize the ron paul movement at our peril. i think when you look at what happened the last eight years, not just the last four years but the republican party has no energy greater than the energy around the ron paul candidacy and he decided not to run as a libertarian candidate in the past. he's not doing it. he is building toward with something. there are no young people evident in any other rallies who are not bussed in from romney or related by birth, marnl or some sort of cousin structure to one of the other candidates. no young people are participating republican party politics that aren't related or interested in ron paul. i think we can be patronizing him but i think it will bite us when they change things in that party. >> i'm waiting to see how newt does the speech right now. this is a big victory for him tonight. this changes the landscape, depending how the money comes in. he has tan santorum thinking whether he should be in the race or not. does newt come out tonight and hammer mitt romney for all of the negativity? does he come out and go after the media tonight? does he put to rest his personal history? is that gone now? has he gone over that hill and on to other things? it is going to be interesting to see how aggressive it is tonight. i mean -- >> wouldn't you go after the media if you were him? i would sing a lullaby to john king. >> in his personality and character, it is like newt to come out and say something about the negativity of the news media and. >> it is a conspiracy against conservatives. >> i tried to go positive. they wouldn't let me do it. they got in to my history. i'm a changed man. i told you i'm a changed man. i believe in redemption hef may talk about all of that tonight. >> he has got to. they he has to say they shot everything at me and i won. because he has to put behind him whatever stuff he thinks they are going to throw at him in florida and "meet the press" in the morning. he has to the try to put a period on the story with his wife, a period on the other stuff and act like all of this expunges that. >> how much does he talk the about ronal reagan tonight? >> let's go to yand mitchell from washington. what are you hearing tonight? one bigging thing there will not be a jeb bush endorsement in florida because i think mitt romney expect it. mark silva interviewed jeb bush and he is not endorse thing, not following bush 41, his own dad's lead. and that is a big fact. he is going to be silent. he is clearly the most prominent politician in florida. >> we are speculating and placing fake bets on what he will do in the speech. the larger context has been the open hostility of the republican establishment to newt gingrich ever since he seemed remotely credible in this campaign. any other sign of the movement trying to coalesce or fire wall around romney or establishment figures move ing toward gingrich? >> you don't see establishment figures moving toward gingrich at all. i think you are seeing shock among the republican establishment because they thought mitt romney on paper was a front runner and could nail it and be the most electable. the biggest change is gingrich has the lament electability issue with his debate performances. people in this election in south carolina, contrary to what happened in new hampshire view gingrich as more electable against barack obama. it is clear everyone in the republican party, those who are against the white house want to defeat barack obama. now they are seeing gingrich as the guy to do it because of his debate performances in the debates. as some have been saying trumped media and i think whatever sheldon puts in the gingrich coffers will be helpful. but gingrich did this even though he had a 2-1 disadvantage in paid media combining the superpac sshs and the campaign ads. he did it on the debates and our big debate on monday night will be the next big act here. >> andrea mitchell, thank you very much. joining us from washington. when you hear what sh she said about the administration and their shock. put yours in their shoes. what's the panic button you hit if you are freaked out that newt gingrich is going to get the nomination. >> i think not only are we not moving toward a coalescing of the establishment for newt gingrich but probably toward a declaration of war on newt gingrich by the republican establishment if newt gingrich is able to win the primary, you will see a panic and meltdown of the republican establishment that is beyond my ability to articulate in the english language. people will go crazy. you will have this five-week period until super tuesday that will be as unpredictable, tumultuous as any period in modern american politics. it will be a remarkable thing to watch, should that happen in florida. >> is there a component of that, which is building a fire wall around mitt romney, protecting him? we saw the establishment trying to do than romney saying you can't talk smack about bane. it has to be positive. don't undercut that at all. to me it is like a flashing neon arrow. here's my glass jaw, please don't hit it. >> i think everybody in the establishment republican circles of washington, d.c. is fixated on the numbers we talked about earlier. newt gingrich has 100% -- 68% unfavorable number and it is so high with the 100% name i.d. it is impossible to come back from. you are not electable in a general election in a 2012 election if your i unfavorable numbers are that high. particularly against the president while vulnerable is a net positive in that number. i think that people look at newt gingrich and don't see him as a plausible candidate in the general election and the republican establishment, who think thises the president is vulnerable and beatable will melt down if gingrich's momentum continues. also important to remember, there are 33 house republicans in districts that barack obama won. what is the impact in terms of republicans being able to keep the house of representatives and majority control if newt gingrich was the nominee of the party? what is the impact in the united states senate races where republicans have a great chance of taking majority control of the senate. with newt gingrich 0 as the nominee of the party that is perhaps up in the air. >> lawrence, with the anti-establishment part of the republican party getting so much press over the last couple of years, is there enough anti-establishment horse power in the republican party that they could look at that sort of reaction that steve's describing and say, you know what, old guard, back room guys, forget it. we are going with newt any way. >> remember, we can use terms like establish ment, i do myself, but there is no power in establishment or anti-establishment because of the primary process it opens it up to anyone. the voters control the outcomes as they are doing tonight and they will make their own decisions about this. it has been a stunning flow of unpredictability as this thing has gone along. voters are reacting to things in ways that we could not have said they would a month ago. interesting number in our exits, the married vote, okay, 75% of the married vote, 40% voted for gingrich. 29s for% for romney. the married vote voted identical to the whole. if you are looking somewhere in the exits for what did this open maerch discussion mean to the gingrich candidacy the answer we have for you so far in this limited sample is it meant absolutely nothing. now, who in american politics would have predicted two weeks ago that if i one of the republican former or current wives comes out and said he was interested in an open marriage there for a while, wouldn't we have all thought, that's the end of that. >> in south carolina. >> the bible belt. >> on the night of the debate sponsored by the national organization of marriage. >> newt gingrich knows because he studied it closer than the rest of us. we surpassed france in our divorce rate a long time ago. the french are timid in this area now compared to us. there isn't a person in america who doesn't have a man they love, a son, brother, father, uncle, someone who hasn't been divorced. newt knows that the country has caught up to dealing with divorce in a way that we in the political media have not yet caught up with. and i think tonight the problems of divorce, the aftermath problems of divorce, what an ex-wife or exspouse may say is something that america processed before we got to the election. >> that hurdle is gone now. >> i can't find anywhere in these exits, show me where, somewhere, where this discussion by newt's second wife somehow hurt him. >> we will take a break. when we come back we expect to hear in just a moment from newt gingrich this long-awaited speech tonight. this is msnbc coverage of the south carolina primary where newt gingrich is the projected winner. we expect to hear from him right after this. thank you though everyone in south carolina who decide to be with us in changing washington. calista and i have particularly happy to have our daughters, son-in-laws, chief debate coaches, maggie and robert who are both right here. we are delighted to have my sisters are here, robbie and susan, just terrific. i also want to recognize several people who were extraordinarily important in south carolina making this happen. judge billy and debra wilkins just took over and did a great job. my former colleague, john napier is just a terrific class act. did such a great job statewide putting things together. house majority leader kenny bingham helped us with the statewide network, speaker hobby harrel was tremendous, we traveled the last several days together. andrea bauer made a big difference. vivian long was a tremendous help to us. i want to say we had a team on our staff who worked endless hours week after week. they did a great, great job. >> a whole new world! >> there are so many things, callista and i have so many memories from so many parts of the state. everybody, including people who, by accident or misinformation, were for the other candidates. [ laughter ] but everybody was nice to us everywhere, and i just want to say that i think south carolina showed southern hospitality as beautifully as anyplace we've been. [ cheers and applause ] i also want to mention in particular general livingston, who is a congressional medal of honor winner, who gave me the great honor in yorktown of introducing me yesterday and to the man of that courage and that patriotism and dedication and freedom come out and support us meant a great deal and everybody, it was a remarkable evening and i'm grateful for that moment of patriotism. [ cheers and applause ] >> the biggest thing i take from the campaign in south carolina is that it is very humbling and very sobering to have so many people who so deeply want their country to get back on the right track. [ cheers and applause ] so many people who are so concerned about jobs, about medical costs, about the everyday parts of life, and who feel that the elites in washington and new york have no understanding, no care, no concern, no reliability, and in fact, do not represent them at all. in the two debates we had here, in myrtle beach and then in charleston, where people reacted so strongly to the news media, i think it was something very fundamental that i wish the powers that be in the news media would take seriously. the american people feel that they have elites who have been trying for a half century to force us to quit being american and become some kind of other system. and the reaction, completely misunderstand what's going on. it's not that i am a good debater. i articulate the deepest felt values of the american people. [ cheers and applause ] you know this is a remarkable system. what makes us different from virtually every other system in the world, we are free and because we're free, we can produce leadership from an amazing range of places. now sometimes that leadership is good, we once had an actor who made movie with chimpanzees. he turned out to be one of our greatest presidents and ended up with the disappearance of the soviet empire. we once had a peanut farmer, nuclear physicist, he didn't turn out to be quite as good, but the genius of america is that you can come from any background. i watched tonight the fine speeches of the other three candidates on our side. and i was struck with how much they reflected the openness of the american system. you know, rick santorum showed enormous courage in iowa when he had no money, nobody covered him, and he just kept campaigning. >> v.p.! v.p.! v.p.! >> i rest my case, he has made an impact, right? here is a guy who articulates the values of social conservatism, who articulates the importance of manufacturing and who may have been as right about the dangers of iran as anybody in this country in the last ten years. and then as a further example of how wide open our system is, you have dr. ron paul, who on the issue of money and the federal reserve, has been right for 25 years. and while i disagree with him on many other things, there's no doubt that a lot of his critique of inflation, of fiat money into the federal reserve is absolutely the right direction and it's something i can support strongly. and finally, governor romney, with whom i disagree on many issues, is nonetheless a good example of america. he's hard working. he has been very successful. he has organized large systems. he did a terrific job at the winter olympics, and the fact is, if you look at the four of us, we are proof that you can come from a wide range of backgrounds and in america, you have a chance to try to make your case no matter what the elites think in new york and washington. >> usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! >> well, you sort of just now captured the heart of this campaign. the fact is, we want to run not a republican campaign. we want to run an american campaign. [ cheers and applause ] because we are optimists about the future, because america has always been optimistic about the future, and we believe as our new sign which just got made today points out, that if we unleash the american people, we can rebuild the america that we love. now, i believe and calista and i decided to run because we, after a year of conversation concluded that this is the most important election of our lifetime. if barack obama can get reelected after this disaster [ [ boos ] just think how radical he would be in a second term. >> no more years! >> so i have a proposal, with your help, we are now moving on to florida and beyond. [ cheers and applause ] and i want you to know that if, and by the way, anyone here who knows anyone in florida, please contact them by sometime tomorrow, okay? and my good friend, luis knows many people in florida and i'm confident he'll have an impact. if i do become your nominee, and i think with your help i will become your nominee, but i need your help. together. if that happens, and it's all up to all of us to work to make it happen, if that happens, then i will challenge president obama to seven three-hour debates, to be fair, to be fair, i don't want you to be disappointed, but i already have conceded that he can use a teleprompter if he wants to. after all, if you had to defend obama care, wouldn't you want to be able to use a teleprompter? now there are a number of key issues that we have to talk about with the president. >> repeal it! >> i'm going to get there in a second. [ laughter ] i believe this campaign comes down to economics, including jobs, economic growth, balancing the budget, the value of money, comes down to national security, what threatens us, what we have to do about it, but the centerpiece of this campaign i believe is american exceptionalism versus the radicalism of saul alinsky. >> usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! usa! >> well, you know, there's a lot to just doing that, because the fact is, what we are going to argue is that american exceptionalism, the american declaration of independence, the american constitution, the american federalist papers, the founding fathers of america are the source from which we draw our understanding of america. he draws his from saul alinsky, radical left wingers and people who don't like the classical america. and one of the issues we're going to address head-on. >> she would be a great first lady and with your help she will be a great first lady. one of the key issues and i'm prepared to take this straight at the president and frankly straight at the elite media. one of the key issues is the growing anti-bigotry issues of our growing elites, and if you go to newt.org, my campaign site there's a 54-page paper there on the balance of power, putting the judiciary back in its proper role in eliminating dick da tore -- dictadictatorial bigots such as justice berry in san antonio who issued a ruling not only could the students not pray at their graduation, if they used the word "benediction" the word "invocation," the word "god," asked the audience to stand or a moment of silence he would put the superintendent in jail. [ boos ] now we don't have speech dictatorship in america by anti-religious bigots, period. the second big theme, frankly, is one that every south carolinian understands. it's jobs, economic growth, balancing the budget, having stable money, and let's be very clear, and again this makes some of the elite media nervous. president obama has been historically the most effective food stamp president in american history. i worked with ronald reagan to create jobs and 16 million jobs were created by the american people in the 1980s. i worked with bill clinton, a democrat to create jobs and 11 million jobs were created by the american people during the four years that i was speaker. i would like to be the best paycheck president in american history and i want to go into every neighborhood of every ethnic background in every part of the country and say to people very simply, if you want your children to have a life of dependency and food stamps, you have a candidate as barack obama. if you want your children to have a life of independecy and paychecks, you have a candidate that's newt gingrich, and i'll bet you we have votes everywhere. >> newt, newt, newt, newt, newt! newt, newt, newt, newt, newt! >> part of jobs in the economy is to shrink the power of washington. i just talked tonight with governor rick perry who is deeply committed. i was very generous for his endorsement this week. his passion is implementing the tenth amendment. we are going to work with him to return power to the states, to local governments to get it out of washington, d.c. the one reason that i ask you to be with me and not just for me, if we shrink the washington bureaucracy, we have to grow citizenship back home to fill the vacuum. i am also committed to getting back to a balanced budget and since i am the only speaker of the house in your lifetime to have helped create four consecutive balanced budgets, i think i can tell you as president, i will work very hard to get back to a balanced budget as rapidly as possible, and then to run a surplus to pay down the debt so no chinese leverage exists on the united states by having our debt. part of our long-term national security has to be having an american energy policy. i want america to become so energy independent that no american president ever again bows to a saudi king. [ applause ] and let me give you an example of a common sense conservatism that solves problems. you have well over $29 billion of natural gas offshore. if and as president i will authorize on the very first day the development of it. that natural gas offshore will create jobs that in louisiana average $80,000 apiece. in addition, it generates royalties. part of the royalties should be used to modernize the port of charleston which affects one out of every five jobs in south carolina. but it's not enough just to find the money. the corps of engineers current bureaucracy is so long and so stupid that they currently take eight years to study not to do the project, to study the project. we fought the entire second world war in three years and eight months. now if you can beat nazi germ -- germany, facists and japan in eight months, it is almost unimaginable it takes eight years to study the project. so i want to fundamentally overhaul the entire federal government at every level to produce a modern, lean, effective federal government. let me also say that the president's decision to veto the keystone pipeline -- [ boos ] you know, you have to wonder how out of touch with reality this administration is. >> he's clueless! >> it's one thing to say that they can't play chess at the white house. it's another thing to say they can't play checkers at the white house. but if they can't play tic tac toe, the president says no, we don't want to you build a pipeline from central canada straight down with no mountains intervening to the largest petrochemical center in the world, houston so we would make money on the pipeline, make money on managing the pipeline, make money on refining the oil and make money in the ports of houston and galveston shipping the oil. we don't want to do that because barack obama is taking care of his extremist left wing friends in san francisco. they think that will stop the oil from getting out. no, what prime minister harper who by the way is a conservative and pro-american, what he has said is he's going to cut a deal with the chinese and they'll build a pipeline straight across the rockies to vancouver. we'll get none of the jobs, none of the energy, none of the opportunity. now, an american president who can create a chinese-canadian partnership is truly a danger to this country. >> that's right. [ applause ] but it gets worse. last sunday the saudis announced a deal with the chinese to build nuclear energy facilities in saudi arabia. the saudis are saying we so distrust the obama administration we'd rather rely on the chinese. the iranians for two weeks taunt us with exercises aimed at closing the straits of hormuz, and the obama administration answer is to cancel military exercises with israel because we don't want to provoke the iranians. president obama is a president so weak that he makes jimmy carter look strong. may i just say the debate we'll have with president owe ba mark -- president obama, the outlying of the two america, the america of the declaration of independence, the america of saul alinsky, the america of paychecks, the america of independence, the america of dependence, the america of strength in foreign policy, the america of weakness in foreign policy. those two choices i believe will give the american people a chance to decide permanently whether we want to remain the historic america that has provided opportunity for more people of more backgrounds than any country in history or whether in fact we prefer to become a brand new secular european style bureaucratic social system. [ boos ] i agree with you. i'm running because callista and i looked at the future for maggie and robert and said, no. we're not going to go the route of obama and these kind of radical ideas. [ applause ] so in order to carry out this great debate, to rally the american people to reasserting their belief in america, to winning the election decisively this fall, to profoundly changing washington starting on day one, when, by the way, we abolish all of the white house czars. to do that, we need to build on this victory by going to florida. i need your help in finding anybody who believes in what we're doing and telling them to go to newt.org, my first name to sign up, donate, to get involved. we don't have the kind of money that at least one of the candidates has, but we do have ideas and we do have people, and we proved here in south carolina that people power with the right ideas beats big money, and with your help we're going to prove it again in florida. thank you and good luck and god bless you. ♪ >> newt gingrich, who nbc news projects has won the south carolina republican primary tonight, speaking to a very, very, very happy room of newt gingrich supporters. let's go first to chris matthews for response to that speech. chris? quickly. he offered himself up as the defender of america, opposed to mitt romney who offered himself up as the defend other capitalism. i think he was more grand than mitt romney tonight. more the leader, more the winner, if you will. i thought it was grandiose and magnanimous. he included his rivals giving a role to each of them including ron paul and santorum. i think he is acting like a guy that is going to victory. very confident tonight. >> thank you, chris. i will say we thought that mr. gingrich may go after the media tonight, which is both his favorite target and to a republican audience a very soft audience. he did not disappoint. mr. per kins is one of the social conservative leaders that met last weekend and endorsed mr. santorum. thank you for being with us tonight. >> good evening. >> i want to defer to ed shultz for the first question. >> good to have you on the program. thank you so much. your group down in texas made a decision to go with rick santorum over newt gingrich. how solid is your group behind santorum in the wake of this which seems to be a stunning gingrich win in south carolina tonight? would this group call that shift and go back to newt gingrich? take us down that road. >> good question, ed. first, let me be clear. my organization has not endorsed a candidate. to the question about the group and what they did. we are 75% of the super majority of those gathered, decided rick santorum was somebody they could support. i don't think they leave. the reason they supported rick was they had all of the polling data. they saw the trends in south carolina. this has been a remarkable week, if you think about it. it's been a bad week for romney, because he went in with two victories under his belt and a third anticipated and he comes out with one victory. now newt has a victory and santorum has a victory. i don't think that santorum support -- i am in florida right now and i have been here two with days at different events -- i don't think his support diminishes. i think there is the path this to the nomination that has gotten longer which means more road hazards and with newt driving people anticipate this could be some issues along the way that could be an opening for rick santorum. >> i know throughout your history of activism and the family research council has been to try to get a strong government voice for what you see are family values that should be promoted in some cases through policy. is part of the worry about newt gingrich moving forward not just that he has had a complicated, moral, sexual marriage history of his own but he has been hypocritical advocating things for the country that he hasn't been able to do for himself. does personal hypocrisy play in to the a government spokesperson for your ideas? >> i think it is an issue of there are questions that were brought up even this week that play to the character issue. again, people -- and you have talked about this on the show when you talk about evangelicals being forgiving. they understand people changing their lives and coming in to a relationship with jesus christ but that does not answer the issue of someone's capability of leading. so there is concern over that. there's concern over whether or not he would be that consistent, stable leader. but i think it's going to be interesting. i don't think that rick -- rick is not going to get out of the race. he said that tonight. he's going to be in florida. newt, as chris talked about, i do think it was a good speech tonight but it sounded a little bit like the newt gingrich before christmas when he was at the top of the polls in iowa. he almost skipped over the nomination process and talking about a general election and i think that makes him vulnerable if he overlooks mitt romney and rick santorum in this process. as you pointed out, rightfully, ron paul cannot be ignored in this process. >> mr. perkins, reverend al sharpton. you are right about forgiving person a character questions but what about social policies? this whole demonizing of poor people and dealing with those that need help. isn't it really part of the christian spirit and the evangelical community to rel really reach out as jesus did to those who are under privileged and that need help rather than demonize them. when we hear mr. gingrich talk about food stamp people and food stamp president, when there were 14.7 food stamp people under bush, only 14.2 under mr. obama, doesn't truth and being understanding of the poor also fit in to the christian spirit? >> i think it does. i think what we talk about is avenues of approach in dealing with those issues. i don't think the solution is necessarily in any party. it's in the policies adopted. obviously, the difference here is the republican party thinks, believes that the way to solve those issues of poverty is to create opportunity through the private sector. i think that's the contrast that newt gingrich was making tonight in contrasting his policy ideas to that of the president. >> tony per kins with the family research council. we are grateful to have your time tonight. we know you are in great demand in terms of your perspective on these types of things. >> thank you, rachel. >> newt gingrich winning tonight in south carolina. florida that much more interesting. the the bait will be hosted by brian williams in tampa tomorrow. and chris matthews will be hosting for an hour from here on out. i want to thank you all and everybody who was able to be with us here tonight. a week ago, as lawrence admitted, he was trying to -- >> wanted the night off. >> wanted to not be working tonight. wanted the night off? the republican process is turning out to be not only long and complicated but really awesome to cover. >> i'll go to florida. >> i will go as far as they will take me at this point. thank you for being here with us on msnbc.