supporters he normally ends up having on the message of his pro-life positions and as well as his anti-war rhetoric. michele bachmann is going to be the next to speak. tim pawlenty had a settle dig at bachmann talking about his experience and how it is important. the stakes are very high for tim pawlenty as he and michele bachmann are battling for the ames straw poll. ron paul is in the mix. electricity is starting to pick up. bachmann's speech is coming momentarily. that will be very interesting. >> give us a sense of what it has been like there today. you know, we were talking a little bit earlier to some of the other reporters who were there for -- real clear politics and so on. and, you know, they were talking about different levels of enthusiasm. in the crowd and checking out the lines. what have you seen so far in the last couple of hours? >> chris, if you love politics, this is just great. it's reminded me -- >> i'm so jealous. have you no idea. >> just going from ten to tent, everybody is having a great time. this is essentially political football where people are serving food and they are serving beer and they are -- having rides for kids and really just a festival and everyone here, i mean, the message overall, particularly in the arena, very anti-obama, anti-democratic, people are trying to make the case for themselves if they should get the republican nomination and at least have the leg up for that first in the nation, iowa caucuses. overall, this is just all about politics. and, of course, you know, people in iowa take their politics very seriously. and example of that is what's happening today. >> they do, indeed. and do you get a sense that they -- as members of the republican party feel an opportunity given what's going on with the approval ratings of the president and certainly the unemployment rate and what's been going on in the stock market over the last week. >> i think so, chris. republicans do sense an opportunity. one thing i have noticed in american politics is republicans are really fired up. the question is that it is -- fired up a year ago when we saw them take back the house in the senate. sometimes after a very big victory you let down your guard. these people here are very fired up. of course, this is the rank and file. we end up having some 10,000-plus people. that's a lot for one single day. of course to be able to win iowa in a general election or even in the iowa caucuses, you will need a lot more votes than that. >> thanks so much. always good to see you, mark. as mark told us tim pawlenty wanted up his remarks. already from a couple of other hopefuls, rick santorum and ron paul. >> the problems are very large. they are very difficult. the solution is not complicated if you understand how we got into this mess. basically we got into this mess because we have lost respect for our law of the land, constitution, and we have lost our enthusiasm for freedom. that we ourselves can take better care of ourselves and take better care of our money and our lives and our children's education. the whole works has done much better without the federal government down on our backs and in our wallets. it is time we restored freedom to america. >> for every little bit of recognition we can get. i had to wave my hand and ask for recognition. this is the little engine that could campaign. >> what are the stakes for all the contenders going into this weekend's poll? caucus blogger michael sheer is covering the poll for "the new york times." national correspondent kate zerniki. michael, let me start with you since you are there. who has the most at stake there today? >> well, i think, you know, the sense really is that both michele bachmann and tim pawlenty are the ones battling it out. either one could lose big if they really do as well as everyone expects. they ex-michele bachmann to win and if she doesn't that could be bad. tim pawlenty has to show his campaign has some energy here. >> let's talk about the non-front-runners. and i think you and i can agree. who doesn't want to eat deep fried butter. that's at the fairgrounds but i digress. someone like a newt gingrich, for somebody like a rick santorum for ron paul, is this make or break n. >> you know, i think ron paul is the one thing you -- one candidate you have to set aside. if ron paul wins the straw poll they will dismiss it. he has fervent supporters. he has to keep going. he is not easily deterred. supporters are very, very -- >> someone that learned to run a campaign on almost no money. >> absolutely. he has raised a lot of money in the past. he's eager supporters. that's -- that candidate set aside. i think some of the other ones like gingrich and santorum, they don't do well, they are going to be dropping out. >> so -- now we have this situation where there are people that are not on the ballot. mitt romney, rick perry. what's your sense of being there, michael, the buzz about those candidates? >> it is interesting. mitt romney will be on the ballot here. people can vote him up or down. they don't expect to get many votes because he's not made a push or presence. doesn't have a presence here. i talked to a couple of people about rick perry as i have been traveling in -- walking around the grounds here today. and most of them are quizzical. they don't really know him very much. he has not been a presence here in iowa since he just got in the race but also not a presence just generally over the years. there is a real sense of kind of wanting to know more about him before they -- they really make a decision. >> and she's not on the ballot, sarah palin, but somehow she managed to get into the news cycle by taking her bus and taking it to iowa. also, saying that she wasn't going to talk about enforcements. she hasn't decided whether she will get into the race or not. has she -- is she reaching the line where people are just going to stop listening? or no? >> i actually she she may have reached the line a little while ago. she played coy for so long and has been in the game of cat and mouse. at a certain point you have to declare you are in. rick perry feels late coming into the game. i think sarah palin has to make up her mind fairly soon. what strikes me is that the old line is that -- democrats want to fall in love and republicans want to fall in line. but this -- this year, it seems like republicans actually are looking for an candidate they can fall in love with. sarah palin may have been that person saying nine months ago but they are still looking for that person in iowa today. >> do you get that sense being there, because i think i agree with kate about that. in talking to some republican strategists over the last week, they are all still anxiously waiting for that sort of person to emerge, that star to emerge, that shining light who can lead them out of the land as they see it of barack obama, michael. is that the sense you get being there? >> yes. i definitely think so. i agree with kate that it may be too late for sarah palin. i have to tell you, she came to the constituent fair. i was there with her and i was caught in essentially a mob crowds? >> yes. i me, i think, you know, here at the straw poll, definitely feels like the biggest crowds are around the tent. for michele bachmann. but i will tell you, ron paul, you know, he's -- on a college campus here and he gets an awful lot of hoots and hollers and applause and, you know, although agree with kate the pundits won't think very much of it should he win, you definitely get a sense of energy around him as well. >> what roll does someone like him, kate, not going to win the nomination play in a process like this? >> you know, it is really hard to say. ron paul is the godfather of the tea party movement. he is very much pushing the party to talk much more at the constitution, much more about -- if we listened to the receipt wick we are hearing in washington now -- >> it is coming from him. >> it is. it is this -- you know, government down to its bare bones. government down to the most bare responsibilities. that's come from ron paul in 2007. we are looking at that and has been saying this for four years. particularly since he ran the last time. >> let us not forget, ' --' 8. '88, he is consistent. >> kate, it is great to see you always. thank you, matt, so much. appreciate it. texas governor rick perry riding in to steal thunder from the straw poll participants. earlier this afternoon. >> it is time to get america working again and that's why with the support of my family and unwavering belief in the goodness of america, i declare to you today as a candidate for president of the united states. >> the question is can he steal the spotlight from the lady of the hour, michele bachmann? doesn't look like either of them backing down any time soon. of. 20 years later she did the same with hand painted martini glasses. love my martini collection took off. so she licensed the brand for everything from pajamas to jewelry to towels. for more watch "your business" at 7:30 on msnbc. my doctor told me calcium is best absorbed in small continuous amounts. only one calcium supplement does that in one daily dose. new citracal slow release... continuously releases calcium plus d for the efficient absorption my body needs. citracal. that i put on my children's plate. that's why we use all-white meat, breading that is whole grain with omega-3 and no preservatives. it is my goal to make the highest quality, best-tasting nugget on the market. i want consumers to go, "dang, that's a good nugget." back in ames, iowa. there you see the supporters waiting to hear from michele bachmann. one of two conservative contenders shaping up to be the hard charging stars this weekend. of course, both have a big following among evangelical voters. we heard a short time ago the announcement from texas governor rick perry and as i said we are waiting for michele bachmann. keith boykin is a democratic strategist, cnbc contributor, and editor of "the daily voice" joined by susan delpercio. susan, what's the appeal of these two candidates, do you think? >>? iowa, they are conservatives and it is the fact that they are kind of dyeing the wool, don't raise taxes, keep spending low, slash the budget. i think that plays really well there. >> do you think -- michele bachmann is having. tytations with rick perry in the race? >> i think she mass something he doesn't have, obviously. she is a woman. the republican party? m some ways is envious of the excitement barack obama had with barack obama and hillary clinton. have you somebody like michele bachmann in the race who brings the energy to the party and to the campaign they wouldn't have had. >> are you suggesting like the middle-aged white male just doesn't do it anymore? >> they are very good with that. >> democrats, truth be told, if you look who is in congress and you look at who is in the state houses many are middle-aged white men but i digress. >> it is about who are they running against. against mitt romney, question. michele bachmann brings a lot. ron perry -- rick perry, excuse me, will bring a lot to the table. if you listened to his speech today he brought it on hard. we keep talking about leadership and i know i will get a million e-mails about this, but -- a male will come off stronger when you talk about overall leadership for the country. he talks about his military service. it was no accident that he brought up the middle east and foreign affairs. i think that may in this case be to his advantage. >> i think he overshadows the rest of the candidates. he clearly has something the other candidates don't have. compared to some of the other candidates. he's also a governor. you know, michele bachmann for all his strengths is not a governor. how many times have we had a member of the house of representatives get elected as a president of the united states? if you look at the most successful presidents who had in the past, they have almost all been governors. so i think he has a good chance of making it just because of that and -- the problem is for -- for perry, though, he has to stand out from the impression a lot of people who are just being introduced to him, another republican texas governor like we had before. do we want to go back to that? >> someone that created jobs but at the same time he's also somebody that has slashed education and i think texas is 47th in spending on education. the environmental record there is very bad. i think in -- one marinesent survey by well-respected organization, it came in dead last. so you balanced the budget but at? i'm wondering if someone that conservative, if they win the nomination, do they have a chance in the general election? >> it is what every presidential nominee faces when they are running in the primary for their party nominee. you saw on the democrats -- everyone thought oh, is obama going to be too liberal and brought it in. that's what do you when you run in the general. you take -- you have to appeal to your base in the primary and then bring it back to more of the center when you run general. that's what everyone does. i think he can do that. >> let's talk about what's going on right now in ames because we have less -- little more than an hour of voting now. probably about -- 6:00 eastern time. so -- two hours and 45 minutes before we get the results. what are you going to be looking for, keith? >> i'm going to be looking to see what happens to tim pawlenty. will he stay in the race or drop out because of -- >> what does he have to do to stay in the race? >> in the greenroom, we were discussing he has to finish second. he said something he can finish up in the top five and still say stay in the race. nobody will take him seriously if he is not in the top three. fourth or fifth, he may as well give it up. beyond that -- >> let me interrupt you. michele bachmann has taken the podium. lets listen. >> is right here in this room, in ames, iowa, we are going to do it together! and take it back. my name is michele bachmann. i am running to be the next president of the united states of america! and together we are going to make barack obama a one-term president. from one iowan to another, iowa will be the -- pace car, if you will, to set the tone and set the taste for bring thing country back to its greatness that it was intended for and that it was meant for. it is iowa where we are going to see the greatness once again begin. i'm so thrilled with what i have seen. our campaign is 48 days old. and in the last 48 days, i have been all across the four corners of iowa and all points in between. i was born in waterloo and born and raised in water look and cedar falls. in this wonderful part of our state, what i saw were reasonable fair-minded people who loved me and poured themselves into me and that's the voice that i learned growing up. common sense and moral values. in a set the tone. i tell people everything i needed to know in life, i learned in iowa. my mother and father taught us to always love iowa. they said be grateful that you are from iowa. iowa is the breadbasket of the world. we feed millions of people from iowa. be grateful. i have always been grateful that i am iowan. i believe it is time we have an iowan in the white house. and in the last 40 days, as i have been everywhere from spencer to storm lake to you name it, we have been there and ames as well, as we have been all over the state, what we have seen is a restoration of that dream and you have restored in me my faith in america. i see on the television destruction. all across the country, but not in iowa. it doesn't matter what -- what city i'm in. i see happy, confident, optimistic people, the crops are growing and we have a wonderful season and people are more energized than ever before because they know we can do this. they know if we stick together, that this will happen. they know we can secure the promise of the future for our children. how do i know that? because i have seen all across iowa wonderful people who believe this. they believe that life is precious. and that from conception until natural death, we stand for human life. that's iowa. >> michele bachmann, who has spent a lot of time and money in iowa, and we have heard that in case you missed it, she is from iowa. she was born in iowa and was raised in iowa. i guess you can't blame her for bringing that up repeatedly to this all-iowa crowd. you have to be a sit seven iowa, resident of iowa, to vote in the straw poll today. but keith and susan, her style is so different from anyone else we have seen so far. are we seeing the differences between a lot about style at this stage of the game? not that much about substance? >> i think that's what is concerning a lot of people about her, frankly, the substance. when they see some of the substance, they are even more concerned. she's really -- she has to offer up real ideas and i mean, a great speech. she gets votes in a straw poll. but she really needs to offer up more. i think like we said earlier with perry coming in, he is overshadowing everything. when you compare that speech to perry's today, there is no contest. >> it is interesting because when -- there was all this buzz about whether or not sarah palin would get into the -- the mantra of every democratic strategist i ever had at this desk was it would be so great if sarah palin -- we would love it. the answer to our prayers would be if sarah palin was the republican nominee. are they saying that about michele bachmann? >> i don't think so as much because at first the idea was that michele bachmann was the poor woman's or poor man's sarah palin. now almost looks like sarah palin is the poor man or poor woman's michele bachmann. she has become the substantive candidate, vis-a-vis sarah palin. sarah palin is walking around off of her bus tour and trying to get attention. it makes her look like she's second fiddle. i think michele bachmann replaced her. not as a national figure but certainly as a substantive political figure. i think that susan is right. she has a lot of explaining to do, so to speak. she will have to do that later on if she can make it past this test in iowa. >> one by that which she and rick perry are similar, though, are they are both conservative. they certainly are to the right and the question is there room enough in this race for both of them and if so, for how long? >> until we see the numbers from their fund-raising show up. a good fund-raiser. so is perry. we will see where the money is going. that will tell you a lot of who -- who will become the real true conservative candidate because where the money is where is candidates are. >> i think lit go to perry. he's a proven fund-raiser and will raise a lot of money. michele bachmann has a lot of energy. perry will be a fund-raising juggernaut and will be even -- give mitt romney a race for his money. >> no accident she mentioned she was only in this race for 48 days. she's trying to lower expectations. >> and she is from iowa. >> she is from iowa. >> we did catch that part of it, did we? republican strategist susan delrcio and keith boykin. msnbc contributor. thanks to both of you. it will be inning. we are 2 1/2 hours away from knowing the results of the iowa straw poll. don't forget tomorrow morning congressman michele bachmann will be david gregory's guest on a special edition of "meet the press" live from iowa. we will be back with more. here is a question for you. the ames straw poll political event or state fair? you have food station, have you the air conditioned tents. it actually seems pretty fun but there is a lot on the line. we are going to break down how it all works and why and how this event came to carry such significance. rick perry officially jumping into the race but can he really win over voters? perdue perfect portions is great on busy nights. five chicken breasts ind