good day, everyone. i'm alex witt here in new york. just past 1:00 p.m. in the east, 10:00 a.m. in the west. the predictions for south florida going from bad to worse. forecasters now expect a deadly 10 to 15-foot storm surge for southwest florida, and that includes places like ft. myers and naples. other cities like tampa and st. petersburg will see 5 to 8 feet of the storm surge. and that is because the latest advisory shows the storm shifting slightly west. it is now a category 3 storm with 125-mile-an-hour winds, but the storm is expected to strengthen once it gets back over the open waters between cuba and florida. we do expect a new update from the national hurricane center soon. first u.s. landfall coming late overnight into early sunday morning. now irma's first target is the florida keys. we're giving you a look right now of key west, florida. it is a tiny island there at the very southernmost tip of the united states and certainly in the state of florida. they are preparing there for a big, big storm already. 25,000 people plus are without power. we have reporters in place all across the state of florida covering all the angles of this story, the evacuations, the preparations, all of this as the storm makes its way closer to land. and with the storm now heading west, the areas on florida gulf coast are bracing for the brunt of irma. let's go to kristen dahlgren who's in ft. myers for us. kristen, what are you seeing there? >> reporter: hey there, alex. we're here in a mobile home park and i've been in places like this after hurricanes have come through and it is scary. i've got to tell you, i'm physically sick thinking about these people because there are a lot of people who are staying here. take a look over here. you can see this water left over flooding from when harvey came through. they got a lot of rain. so this ground is saturated. this neighborhood floods normally. the storm surge is going to be coming through here. mo in this house here, he's staying. he's got a boat. we talked to somebody else down the street. she has air mattresses she's going to use as a raft if it comes down to that. take a listen. >> do you think that all that attention towards the miami track fooled people here? >> definitely fooled people. fooled us. i really -- i did not think in a million years it was going to keep going west. i really didn't. i was sure it was going to -- even last night, i said it's going to start swaying back. we have a paddle just in case we need to like float out somewhere. at least we're not walking in waist-high water. >> oh, my gosh. do you think you're going to -- i'm scared for you. >> i'm a little scared too, but -- >> reporter: she told me now she thinks she made a mistake. now, we do have these two gentlemen are heading out to a different home but i spoke to somebody else. he actually lost his mobile home here in this flooding a few weeks ago. he is going to be staying in a friend's house. he says he doesn't think that's going to last through the storm, so his backup plan is to go inside a landscaping trailer as this cat 3, potentially cat 4 or 5 is coming through, alex. so it's really worrisome. all these people say that they're concerned, they're scared, but they say at this point it's too late to get out. and so they're just trying to stay optimistic. but just a frightening situation for a lot of people. >> kristen, now you've got me scared thinking about these folks. can you just look around and see if there are projectiles. i know in the more urban areas they have had garbage collectors go around and try to pick up literally garbage cans or anything else, but i'm looking at those mail boxes. if you've got a cat 3 storm or anything greater, off they go. >> reporter: and it's not just mailboxes, alex, look over here. that's a dumpster that is full of stuff that they had to rip out of their homes because of this flood that went through just a few weeks ago. there are dumpsters throughout this neighborhood, so that is full of stuff that could get lifted up, projectiles. you see in the yard all of the sticks that are down. you know, people have done what they can, but look over here. if you just look on this person's front porch, they still have furniture out. they have got a television out there. here's a bag of trash. there is a lot of stuff. and then any of these porches, those are going to go in the wind. so you're going to have that all flying around. so the people that are staying, they say we're in concrete block homes, we're okay. but think about the storm surge coming through. and if it's projected to be 6, 8 feet here, that will fill up these first floor homes. many of them aren't elevated and so you really just have a disaster in the making. >> so, kristen, these folks are in ft. myers and they thought when the storm originally was projected to track up the east coast, they figured, all right, we're going to get some heavy winds and maybe a little bit of heavy rains but that's about it. look how quickly this thing changed from a track up the east coast to now the west coast but it could still change back again. is that their explanation for deciding to stick around? they thought, well, it wasn't going to really hit us? >> you know what, alex, i've been here on the ground for a few days and this area has been in that cone of uncertainty the whole time, so it's not like anyone said it's definitely going somewhere else, it's always it could come here, you are in the range of places. so a lot of people were getting ready. these are also people who went through hurricane charley. i don't know if you remember that one back in 2004. it was headed towards tampa and then made a sharp right turn at the last minute and went into charlotte harbor, so they know that hurricanes are unpredictable and that they can come through areas they got hit by charley because of that last-minute turn so they know that hurricanes are unpredictable. but, you know, in asking them why didn't you go, a lot of them didn't have the money to evacuate. a lot of them have animals. they thought they'd be safer with. they think that these block homes will be able to survive. >> well, we'll say a lot of prayers that they are right. okay, kristen dahlgren in ft. myers, thank you very much for the heads up there. hey, everyone, let's stay in ft. myers and we are joined by nbc's al roker. al, there you are by the water. you know better than anybody this thing has been dancing around with its predictions where it's going to go, east coast, west coast. what do you know? what's the latest? >> well, the latest, as you mentioned, it's a category 3 storm but i don't want people to focus on that for several reasons. first of all, it's now making its way toward florida. it was weakened because it was cut off from its energy source while it was on land in cuba, so yes, it dropped down. but it is now about to get into the florida straits. the water temperatures there, 85 to 90 degrees. that is the energy source. and its forward motion has slowed down. so what that does, it keeps it over that warm water longer. so it is going to reintensify. make no mistake, that's going to happen. the other thing is, we could see another wobble to this -- to the path. there may be a little further east, it may be a little further west. people should not focus when they see our graphics and they see our path to focus on the path. what you need to focus on is that cone of uncertainty as kristen was talking about. this is an area, give or take, of 75 to 100 miles that just a couple of miles shift in that trajectory and all of a sudden it widens out. and the storm surge, as kristen was talking about, is going to be significant. so that's what you need to know. this is going to intensify. but beyond that, as this comes onshore, unlike andrew, which was on the ground, came across from east to west in four or five hours, this thing is going to travel up the spine of florida. it will be a tropical system, most likely a category 2 or 3 hurricane, for the life of its expectancy along -- while it's on the ground in florida for about 24 hours. that's a lot of time and a lot of damage. and because of the instability and the volatility in the atmosphere, the threat of tornados is really going to ramp up as this thing gets closer and makes its way north. so there's a lot going on here. we've got the storm surge, where as you know 90% of deaths and injury occur because of the push of water. water is an incredible force that people don't think about. it finds its way, there's debris in the water, there's all kinds of problems. so there's that. the winds on the west side of florida when this thing comes in is going to be 125, 150 miles per hour. that is really, really dangerous. and then we've got heavy rain, anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of rain. so there's a lot happening here. and a shift in a degree or two of the track isn't going to matter that much. the folks on the west coast are going to be in this. the folks on the east coast will feel this to a certain extent and may feel it even more if it shifts a little more to the east. make no mistake, this is a serious deal. and people, if they have moments, they have time to get out, they still should do it because this is not going to be pleasant. >> yeah. so, al, i'm looking at the graphics that you provided us and seeing a nine-foot plus storm surge where you are. put that in perspective. i'm looking at this dock behind you here. >> yes. >> will a 9-foot storm surge cover that? >> first of all, that area in red that you saw is actually 9 feet plus. it's probably going to be closer to 15 feet. depending on whether it's high tide or not, would put it over that talk. look, i'm 5'7". if it's a 15-foot storm surge, double my height almost and that's what would be going on on this beach. so the storm surge. and the force in which it comes, it only takes about 4 to 6 inches of water moving at 4 miles per hour to knock you off your feet. if you've got 15 feet of water coming in, the damage that it can do is immeasurable. >> if anybody has ever gone to the beach and been hit by a three-foot wave and knocked off your feet and taken out a little bit and you struggle to get back up, that is minuscule by comparison to what could be happening to folks with the storm surge. >> yeah. >> okay. al roker, we're grateful for your time. thank you so much, my friend. stay safe. let's go to miami beach, mariana atencio is there for us. it's been very windy. you've had guests all around you and it looks like they're still there, mariana. >> reporter: we are still here, alex. first i want to give you an update on that kite surfer that we talked about last hour. the police showed up about ten minutes after our hit. i would like to think they were watching msnbc. they urged him to get here on dry land. he says despite the fact that he felt in control of the kite surf the whole time, these changing winds, the fact that as you mentioned, the storm is dancing around florida at this point made him rethink his idea to kite surf and come back to dry land. but again, as conditions are worsening on this beach, you still see families like the people behind me taking photos. i just want to go speak to some of them because miami beach is under mandatory evacuation. this is a barrier island. you see that storm surge. we are still going to get hurricane-strength winds in florida, most likely because of the size of the storm. let me see if my audio cable is long enough. hi, guys, can i just -- we're live on msnbc. >> okay. >> what are you doing out here? >> just checking the weather. just checking the weather. we're just getting a feel for it. >> is this your family. >> this is my family. >> you have your small kids. >> no, no small kids. everybody is a teenager and over. >> you guys are laughing. i mean this is a serious storm that we're facing still. are you going to go home? >> on the way home right now. we're on the way home. >> you came out here what. >> to have an experience of irma, so our kids with experience this life thing that's only going to happen once in a while, i don't know how many years. but at least they have an experience of what it is to have a hurricane out on the beach. >> the police, though, they were here a minute ago. what have they told you? have they urged you to come back? >> not yet. >> because they have been patrolling miami beach. this is a mandatory evacuation area. >> right, right. we're not from the area. we happened just to come around. we saw all the people going in the water? >> are you tourists or from miami? >> from miami. >> have you experienced a category 3 before? >> andrew. >> and you're still out here? i was here for andrew and i wouldn't be out on the beach. stay safe. if you've got to go, go. please do. alex, again, this is not the scene that authorities want to be seeing out here. and despite governor rick scott's warnings for people to get out and get out now while they can, i mean going back into the ocean, it is really just unbelievable that this hurricane is hours away. even if the track is moving, even if it's moving west, we do know that it's been shifting for the past 24 hours and it could shift again. it's really not safe. not the images that the first responders and authorities want to be looking at right now if you're in miami beach. alex. >> i'm just going to offer this up. i think those folks know they're on tv right now. just saying. i think they're hamming up a little bit for the cameras. let's hope they take your advice, do as you say and get home very soon. all right, mariana, thank you so much for that. let's get right to raphael miranda. so you want to talk about storm surge and the winds. which one do you fear more from this storm? >> the surge for sure. water is always the most deadly part of a hurricane. i think this will play out the same way. we're very concerned with the storm surge this morning. what we're expecting across southwest florida. this map is connected directly to the national hurricane center's path. so based on the current path, it tells you what kind of surge we're expecting. where you see the red, that's a surge of over 9 feet, up to 15 feet. where you see the orange, that's 6 to 9 feet gabove ground level. the city of naples here, naples bay, look, these are homes. all of this orange, that's 6 to 9 feet of water. as you ride up the southwest coast, ft. myers right along the river here. t over 9 feet is what we'll see later on tomorrow night as the storm passes by southwest florida. now, hurricane irma again trying to escape the cuban coast and will intensify as it does so. look at the winds we're seeing now. marathon, winds 60 miles per hour. so tropical storm conditions firmally in place in the keys. miami still on the way. again, the current wind gusts 40 to 60 miles per hour in the keys, but look what happens over time. heading into tonight, this is around 6:00, and we see those winds approaching 70 miles per hour in the keys. miami beach, tropical storm conditions right through the overnight into tomorrow. hurricane conditions by tomorrow morning 9:00 a.m. and these mega wind gusts, 127 in the keys. this gradually rides up, the strongest part of the storm moving into ft. myers by tomorrow evening. it's a slow mover so these winds are in place for a long time throughout the day. then it eventually pushes north. the east coast getting slammed with the storm surge and winds over 80 miles per hour. alex. >> lots to keep track of. thank you, appreciate that. nbc's gadi schwartz has made his way from homestead, he's taken that approximately hour-long drive south. he is in key largo right now. we are going to get our very first look from gadi schwartz as to what's happening in the upper keys. stay with us here on msnbc. back with you with a look right now of what will be ground zero for hurricane irma relative to the united states. you're looking at the southernmost tip of the u.s., key west, florida, right now. they are experiencing high winds. there will be storm surge coming their way very shortly as hurricane irma makes its way from cuba and makes the turn toward the florida keys. at the top of the keys right now we find nbc's gadi schwartz. he is in key largo. irma is expected to hit there first overnight. gadi, what are you seeing? >> reporter: right now, alex, what we see is those winds that are starting to hit us. they're taking down some trees. you can see down that road there, some of those trees are starting to go. we've also seen some transformers blow as these winds whip up. but so far the main concern out here is whether or not these homes are prepared and whether or not a lot of the boats that you're seeing out in these waterways are well enough anchored. you see some of those lines out there. people have put some tremendous effort in making sure that there are different anchors. some of those different lines actually have shock absorbers so the boats can go to and fro when the storm starts up. the other concern is what's going to happen to these homes over here. we caught up with a man who lives inside one of these homes and he told us exactly what it's going to take to get him to leave. >> all my family, everybody thinks we're stupid to staying here. there's a team of us who i hate to say experts but are long-time mariners. we know the weather is very dynamic and will change at a moment's notice. like i told you earlier, i was going to be in key west two days ago, ft. myers yesterday. i had an exit plan and set triggers. the thing we do is when one of those triggers goes, we're done. >> so your trigger is wi-fi goes down, electricity goes down, you're out of here. >> if i can't see what the storm is doing, i doubt it will make a pure 90-degree turn and come to me, but i'm not going to risk it. >> reporter: so that's just one of the stories out here. most of the people who live in key largo seem to have gone. we've been here for about an hour, two hours here and so far we've only seen maybe two dozen people driving by. people making last-minute preps on their houses. the good news is the only way to get in and out of this area is still open right now. open, that means that there's nothing impeding it. this whole area is under mandatory evacuation. but the water has not come high enough to cut this area off so people are still ail to get out. as you see, last-minute preps are still under way. >> gadi, you made your way over that long bridge that brings everybody into key largo. i'm sure you had no traffic coming this direction because everybody is going the other direction. but in regard to the keys in general, there are about 50 bridges that pull together these islands that make it all the way down, so you lose one bridge and the area south of that will be cut off. and that's difficult. do you see any kind of flooding or anything at this point across the waterways? >> reporter: so that's one of the things that our crew has had to take into consideration as we do this coverage because as you said there are bridges that go down further. we've been very mindful about the bridges that we've crossed. the bridge that we crossed to get over here is very high. we saw the water when the road comes down along the water. we saw the water starting to come up. some of the spray was getting on the road so that's when we knew that we weren't going to have a lot of time here. high tide is happening around right now, so we know that the water levels may go down just a little bit, but that hurricane is still 100, 150 miles out. as it approaches, those water levels are expected to come up. we're probably going to get out of here in the next two or three hours because we don't want to get cut off from the mainland. again, as you go further down, there are more bridges. as those water levels continue to come up, people aren't going to have the opportunity to flee. so right now is the time to get out. the good news is there is no traffic. most people have heeded those evacuation warnings. most people have already made their way to the mainland, so there is no traffic on the roads. it's a very quick drive to get out. but that stretches a long way, almost 100 miles all the way down to the tip. alex, back to you. >> for those of us who have a great affection for the keys and they're a very unique place here in florida, thank you for giving us a peek and seeing that things are okay at least as of now. gadi schwartz, appreciate that. joining me now from miami beach, sam champion. sam, big welcome to you. how quickly is this storm progressing from what you can see? >> hi, alex. it's moving right along. we'll get another update here by the time we get to the top of the hour. we wanted to set up a shot here. i want to show you an area that's kind of important here. not only in miami beach but also to miami. alex, let me show you this. you're looking out at the open atlantic right there. this is an area called government cut. it is an area that was dredged out. fisher island, which is there where the buildings are right behind me, that used to be a part of miami beach but this was cut through to bring the cruise ships and all of the other ships that are bringing all the loads of, what am i trying to say, cargo ships to those cranes that are right there. then that's downtown miami beach. so the reason i wanted to show you this is the water is about two or three feet higher than it should be and it's one of the places we're going to be watching for this storm surge as this storm continues to push toward the north on the western coast of florida. we'll still get these giant feeder bands of storms and wind, which will push this water higher and heavier into this area. so we're here just to keep an eye on the high water for a moment. let's tell you what's going on with this storm because this has been a big deal. if you haven't been with us all morning long, we need to get you updated on what's happening with the storm. the eye now just pulling off that northern coast of cuba, an area that they call the cuba keys. so we've spent most of the evening and night last night and a good part of the morning this morning dragging what was a category 5 hurricane along that land mass. now, this is perfect to explain how interaction with land, and we talked about this as a possibility yesterday. interaction with land, any land with the storm, even a strong storm, can tear it up a little bit and weaken it just a little bit. so now we're dealing with a category 3. and it has everything to do with the time it has spent dragging along that northern line of cuba. and that's a lot of damage for the island of cuba, particularly that northern coast, and they're not used to seeing storms like this drag by. so now we're waiting for that storm to make a turn, and it does look like the eye has started to come off, a little bit off that northern coast of cuba. let's show you the track for the next couple of days. we're going to see this wind pick up a little bit just like this in gusty form as those bands of rain come in and the wind wraps around this storm because we're feeding the moisture down into the center of that hurricane. so we'll see more wind like this and probably see some hurricane-force gusts here on miami beach. they could get a little higher than category 1 hurricane gusts. so there's that 3 storm we're talking about, that eye wall coming right off cuba. it's not going to be a sharp turn. it's more of a lean out to the west here. so we know that this water, what we call the straits, is warm now. last gauge, last time i looked at it, 87, 89-degree water temperature in those florida straits. that's the area between the keys and the northern coast of cuba. so that is hurricane-feeding temperature. everything is perfect there. the next time this storm could see anything to disturb it from strengthening will be a little bit of tear-up, a little wind shear that could come within 24 hours, but nothing expected between now and then. so we'll probably see this storm restrengthen, regain its strength to a category 4 hurricane. now let's look at the timing here for florida's coast. we still believe that by sunday at 8:00 p.m. we have 140-mile-per-hour storm somewhere near ft. myers and naples, with the worst side of that storm facing the west coast of florida, the land mass of florida, and dragging it up toward the tampa area before finally pulling it onshore. alex. >> so, sam, before i let you go, this thing is going to sweep through the florida keys. your big concern for the florida keys would be the storm surge, i presume. even if it's a category 3 and doesn't extend to a category 4 and intensify that way, we're still looking at tremendous storm surge, right? that's the problem there? >> reporter: yeah, the forecast -- remember, this has been a powerful storm that's been driving storm surge with it the entire time. it's a big, massive storm. the eye is very, very large. so i'm not so concerned about making the category line between 3 and 4 here as i am exactly what you just said, letting people know that the storm surge there could be 10, 15, 20 feet at tops. so if you've got a cat 4 and the winds are stronger and you're pushing 20 feet of water, that's one thing. but if you're pushing 15 feet of water, that's still something that's going to wash over all of the keys. so there's not an area, there's not an elevation that's close to 15 feet for a lot of these keys. so we're talking about water washing completely over and water, alex, that will be over my head washing over. >> sam champion in miami beach, thanks so much for the comprehensive report. we're joined by a former fema director under president clinton's administration. john, welcome back to the broadcast. we were talking the issues about harvey and now we're back talking about irma. talk about the resources already on the ground in a situation like this and those that can spring into action as soon as the storm passes. >> alex, the resources are prepositioned. a lot of forward elements of fema have been through this before. we understand where it's safe to position resources and where it's not safe to position resources. so those areas where there's some relative safety to be able to locate the resources so that they can get there as quickly as possible, they don't want to be a part of the problem, but rather a part of the solution. so there's some art and science that goes into exactly where you locate the resources, but we've got a pretty good idea of where they should be and where they shouldn't be. >> john, when you look long term here at what folks are going to have in terms of questions and the availability of fema funds and assistance, i was speaking with one of your colleagues earlier, craig fugate, and he made the point that fema does not fix things that have been a total loss. it will help, but really monetarily, i believe he said the amount, $34,000 per family is the maximum amount that fema can alot to somebody who's been afflicted by a storm like this. is that true? >> it's not going to be enough to restore many of the people that are tremendously impacted by this storm. people that are in the storm's path, people that are even close to some of the things that happen. i mean my brother, andy, used to say close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, but it counts in hurricanes too. the wide path of people that are going to be impacted by this storm, there's simply no way that they're going to be able to be restored to where they were before the storm by government funds. hopefully many of these people have insurance. hopefully many of these people have made provisions to where they have structurally reinforced their homes, which counts against wind, but unfortunately there's not a whole lot of reinforcement that you can do against water. but yet they know something about this. it's not like florida has not been through some of these kinds of things before. it's just knowing it and doing it sometimes are two different hinges. >> yeah, very true. florida does have the most coastline so folks do understand what they have coming their way. john, thanks so much. more than 6 million people ordered to evacuate the flood zones but that doesn't mean they all hit the road. we'll have more on that, next. more evacuations are being ordered ahead of hurricane irma's landfall. the last hour governor rick scott asked another 700,000 people to leave. that order combined with orders in other states makes this the largest evacuation in u.s. history. if you are getting out, your window of opportunity is very quickly closing. rain, wind and surf picking up in south florida, already tens of thousands are without power. forecasters expect the florida keys to be hit first, sometime overnight or in the wee hours of the morning. after that, it is the southwest coast, that being ft. myers, naples, tampa, sarasota, all of them in the line of fire. officials are warning the storm surge could be deadly, up to 15 feet expected in some places. irma is heading off of cuba and back over the open waters where it is expected to intensify. we do have breaking news from the white house with president trump staying on top of these developments. joining me from the white house, nbc's kristen welker. kristen, with a good day to you, do we know whether the president has spoken with officials at fema or other officials in the state of florida? >> reporter: no word on phone calls yet, alex. we do know that the president has gotten regular briefings overnight and throughout the day. we just learned moments ago, according to a white house official, at 2:00 p.m. here is going to meet with his entire cabinet. now, this will be the fourth time that he will have met with his entire cabinet since taking office. they will get briefed on the state of irma and also that other impending hurricane jose by acting dhs secretary elaine duke. fema is the leading organization in charge of the hurricane response. let me read you a little bit from what a white house official tells me. the president and first lady are keeping all the people impacted by hurricanes harvey and irma in their thoughts and prayers and urge everyone to listen to and follow the safety instructions of local authorities. alex, that last part has really been key to the messaging here at the white house. they want to let the public know they are on top of the response, but at the same time, they are stressing the importance of listening to state and local officials. now, of course all of this comes after earlier this week the senate and house signed off on a deal and then of course the president just last night signed a bill that will give more than $15 billion to hurricane relief aid. alex. >> that being targeted for harvey. we know they'll have to up it considerably with regard to what's happening with irma. thank you so much from the white house. kristen welker, always good to see you. joining me right now, florida senior senator bill nelson. senator, with a welcome to you, sir, given the powerful history with florida and hurricanes, how ready is your state? >> the state is as ready as it ever has been. you compare it 25 years ago to andrew, there was no preparation there. now all the levels of government are working seamlessly together. i have just come from the hillsborough county emergency operation center, which is in tampa. fema representative is there in the eoc with them. so it's working pretty good. i've been on interstate 4 going out of tampa, and people are suddenly realizing now this is a west coast storm, not an east coast storm, and thus your seeing the additional people evacuating from the gulf coast, the west coast of florida, evacuating away from the coast. >> well, i think it is safe to say, sir, this is a storm that is going to affect both coasts to varying degrees, that is for sure. may i ask you, senator, who is going to be responsible for providing the bulk of aid to those who need it and how long will it take to reach folks on the ground? >> well, fema has the primary responsibility. and remember, we just -- out of money yesterday. fortunately they have enough to get them for a month, but come mid-october we're going to have to pass another emergency supplemental appropriations for fema and for local governments. >> so, senator, last question. if folks don't have insurance, what kinds of assistance might they still expect? >> it depends on what is going to be the main cause. is it going to be wind damage to their homes or is it going to be water. the reason it could be water caused by the wind, if this hurricane goes out into the gulf off the western coast of florida and goes up the coast, those counterclockwise winds will run that water up into the bays, such as charlotte harbor just north of ft. myers, or the big one would be shoving the water up into tampa bay. you could have a lot of water damage there. >> all right. well, florida's senior senator, bill nelson, senator, very good to speak with you. thank you for weighing in with your perspective, we appreciate that. from there to miami and the acting deputy director for the national hurricane center. mark, a big welcome to you. look, talking with the senator, he's talking about those folks leaving tampa right now because they thought it was an east coast storm and now it's deemed to be a west coast storm. what do you say in terms of the variability between both sides of florida? where's going to get slammed, and is that just for certain or can it still move? >> at this point we're only 24 to 48 hours out, so the track forecast has become a little bit more certain. we're getting pretty likely that the east coast won't get the core of the system, more like it looks like southwest florida than up into the tampa florida later on sunday and into monday. >> so, mark, what does that mean for those folks? when you say they're going to get the system, we've heard about storm surge, we've heard about the winds. what are the expectations right now for southwestern florida? >> what we're expecting is the system looks like it's coming off the coast of cuba right now. if anybody was expecting that to disrupt the circulation, that certainly didn't happen. we can see the inner core here looks very well established still, so we're expecting the intensification and really the threats are both wind and surge. we're expecting 10 to 15 feet of surge from cape coral area down southwards towards naples and also expecting category wind effects in that area. in addition to that into the florida keys later today and tomorrow. >> mark, you mentioned the keys. before i let you go, what can we expect from the keys? are they going to be devastated? >> they're going to get category 3 to category 4 winds, which can have devastating effects, extremely dangerous, as well as up to 10 feet of storm surge. so we expect considerable impacts in the keys area later today and into tomorrow. >> acting deputy director for the national hurricane center, thank you very much, mark. miami beach already feeling the brunt of the hurricane and this isn't even irma at full strength. live coverage continuing all day right here on msnbc as hurricane irma gets a lot closer to making landfall. we are back now with special coverage of hurricane irma and a very sober evacuation warning from florida governor rick scott. >> this is a catastrophic storm that our state has never seen. let's remember, we can rebuild your house, you can get your possessions again. we can't rebuild your life and we can't rebuild your family. >> the governor says florida's west coast can see storm surge up to 15 feet above ground level. he adds that almost 7 million people have left the flood zones. let's turn now to miami beach, which is starting to get some of the impact of irma, even though the storm is moving in the westerly direction. nbc's vaughn hilliard is right there in miami beach for us. vaughn, i know there's some concern about a sea wall there? >> reporter: yeah, alex. much of the focus is going over to the west coast here of florida. we're here in miami beach and just over on the other side is mainland miami. right if you look behind us, this is where the sea wall is. this is biscayne bay. that's mt. sinai medical center, which is where the mayor and city officials are stationed right here at this moment. it's still a functioning hospital at the same time. but we were over there and the water has risen up to the point where it was starting to go up and over and even flooding into the parking lot. i say that because it's just 1:00 here and while much of the focus has been diverted from here, the risk of flooding is still significant here in miami beach and in miami. we're in a light spot right here at the moment but there's been these rain bands that have come in where it's been almost -- where you can't even see anything. the winds have gotten up to 50 miles per hour. and over the course of this next afternoon, we're standing right here on one of the bridges, which there's only a couple of bridges that gets you into miami beach, which runs about four miles up along the coast. once these bridges get to a point where you're no longer able to see, they're going to shut down these bridges. the concern is the point at which these people are no longer able to evacuate. over the last couple of days they had mandatory evacuations for everybody in miami beach of the most of the hotels are closed and most of the residents are gone. there has already been an impact from the rainstorm. so the concern is, yes, it may not be sustaining those category 3, category 4 storm levels and perhaps the extent of the flooding. there still is significant -- a significant risk here to the miami beach area. so we'll check in here throughout the afternoon and as the storm begins to hit here. >> yeah. a little concerning that the mt. sinai hospital is right on the other side of that sea wall. okay, vaughn hilliard, thanks so much from miami beach. so just how bad could the flooding from hurricane irma get? we'll show you that, next. back now with special coverage of hurricane irma, making its way to florida but not before pounding cuba's no, sir -- north coast. nbc news has learned of widespread damage to homes and infrastructure. heavy rains is also expected in havana and irma is expected to strengthen. i understand you have more on just how bad this flooding can get. >> you heard from senator nelson talking about the nightmare scenario now for tampa. we've been looking at miami. the track is now that it's moving west and people have been looking at tampa for years. this is from the national weather service taking a look at the potential storm surge. we're going to talk about that area right there. this is "the washington post" map. "washington post" did an article in july of this year talking about what would happen if a category 3, 4, or 5 storm hit tampa, and i want to show you some points of interest here. just so we're all on the same page here. this is where the hospital is. look at how low-lying these areas are. this is mcdill air force base right here. this area right here should all be being evacuated now. if you're on these barrier islands, you need to get out of tampa bay now because that water is going to push up into the bay and not go anywhere. it's going to sit right here and not going to go back into the bay, depending on the power of the storm. two studies i want to talk about. in 2010, the local council in tampa bay ran this scenario, a storm giving 156-mile-an-hour winds. they said would cut this area in half, all of this would be water. they say 2 million people would be caught in this area, totally flooded out of their homes. it would be cut in half. it would flood this way as well. that's the concern. in 2013, alex, the world bank did a study of all cities around the world. which ones are the most vulnerable in the world. tampa ranked number 7 in the world. number one in the u.s. so if you're in tampa bay, this is your number right here. this is what you want to be calling if you want to get out. if you're looking to get out, if you're looking to get to a shelter, call this number. the other thing to keep in mind, there are more than 60 retirement communities in the tampa bay area. >> okay. real quickly, can you pull back up that map of the flooding, that area that you showed? so the pink. this was under what kind of condition that tampa would look like this. >> they were saying under this scenario, 156-mile-an-hour winds. that's what would do this. and all of this, again, would be floold flooded out. this is mariner's cove here, a lot of mobile homes here. this is venetian islands and shore acres. the real estate market has exploded in this area. it's a beautiful community. it's like the keys. it's absolutely gorgeous. the problem is it's basically on sea level. >> okay. pretty frightening stuff there and that's 156-mile-an-hour winds so that's what, a cat 4? >> that's between a cat 4 and a cat 5 but that is why we are going to focus on tampa because as this storm pushes up, depending on where it actually makes landfall, it's going to push all that water, potentially, into that bay and that water just sits there. you're familiar with florida. that water doesn't go anywhere and it's a real problem, especially when you're talking about, again, some of these points of interest. the hospital here, they're going to have to get that hospital evacuated if it looks like this thing is going to make significant landfall in tampa. but again, cone of uncertainty. so we'll keep an eye on that. >> and a few hours to get this done and dealt be. that's going to do it for me this hour. thomas roberts picks up our coverage at the top of the hour live from miami with the very latest on the path of hurricane irma and what lies ahead for those who did not evacuate to higher ground. stay with us here on msnbc. it is 11:00 a.m. out west, 2:00 p.m. here in florida. and i'm in miami. we've just heard from the governor, rick scott, once again over the last couple of hours, delivering this dire warning for people, if you live in south florida, in an evacuation zone, time is running out for you. we've got the latest tracking for hurricane irma, which continues to charge toward the sunshine state as a category 3 hurricane but let's not let that determination fool you. it's been downgraded but irma could still gain strength before it strikes the u.s. coming up in just a few hours, here in miami, we're already starting to see weather conditions sthat have deteriorated over the past hours as outer bands of rain have moved in. 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