i'm peter alexander sitting in along with mike barnicle in boston. joining us here at the table, pat buchanan, jonathan capehart and ed rendell back at the table. nice to see you. visiting professor at nyu, gerald ford jr. we are going to go into the 2012 race coming up. who is the most likely alternative to mitt romney and who has the best chance to beat president obama. a look at the war in afghanistan. now the longest war. how do we get out? does obama's policy differ from president bush's and what is the effect for generations to come? joe and mika and willie join in the conversation later this hour. we begin with the debt crisis. they are trying to make a deal on the deficit. houses of congress are rolling out separate compromises to safe off a default. harry reid is meeting with mitch mcconnell to craft a solution to appeal to both parties. according to reports, this would do the following. it would allow the debt ceiling to be raised three times for a total of $2.5 trillion. in exchange, some $1.5 trillion in spending cuts would be enacted. the plan would be established to identify new deficit cuts. proposal, already, getting a lukewarm response from the fellow republicans. among them, the freshman snar mark arubio and tom coburn. take a listen. >> it gives the president the ability to raise the debt limit. the debt limit isn't the problem. the problem is the debt. the plan, as outlined to me isn't a credible solution. >> i think the mcconnell plan is more of washington not taking responsibility for -- it's a great political plan. it takes all the pressure off all the politicians and we pass a debt limit without making the hard choices we have the make. >> pat, what do we make of this? for a lot of americans, it feels like we have made no progress. >> senator mcconnell giving the ball to barack obama in the end zone saying let us out of here. you make all the decisions on the budget cuts and we get to vote them up or down. we are not going to vote them down. i think, basically, this is by the republicans in the senate saying we don't want the fight. we want to retreat on this front and fight on another front. >> right. right. retreat on this front, but as peter reported, there would be three bites of the apple to raise the debt ceiling for $2.5 trillion. every time democrats would have to vote on it, it gives republicans a club over the democrats in a presidential election year. claire mccaskill, you think she wants to do this three times next year? i don't think so. >> there's a positive to be looked at. a week and a half ago we were in an argument about whether to vote on it. we are now at a point where it doesn't look like we are going to default on our debt. for us to voluntarily default, it would be a hardship around the world and here. as a former governor, you would understand as well as any, you can see a path to an answer that encourages people. >> it's a path to an answer. it's also very disappointing. we had the opportunity to do something with the deficit. it took people of good will on both sides compromising. the great rolling stones song, "you can't always get what you want." we could have done something good for the country. we are kicking the can down the road. yes, we are avoiding default, but god knows when it's going to get done. >> mike, there's a headline, beyond the beltway and yawns on budget talks. can we put it in the simplest of language? why does it matter when it feels inside the beltway right now? >> your average american, no matter where he or she works, i don't care where you work, dry cleaners, public school, police station, downtown office, no one could work in an environment like the house and senate. business would come to a standstill. it couldn't happen. people know they are ridiculous. you just turned mark arubio, freshman senator from florida say the problem here is the debt. guess what? the problem here is nobody is working. there's 14% to 15% real unemployment in this country. take a walk around the block marco. >> the problem here is a tremendous conflict between the two parties and their fundmental philosophy of where the country ought to go. the house republicans are one side of this. they are going to come out for cut, cap and balance. cut spending all the way to 20% of gdp. get rid of half the deficit. then, you know, cap the spending and pass the balanced budget amendment. it's going to be popular with constituents and with the country to balance the amendment. it's going nowhere. it does tell you, they are willing to go to the wall, go down to defeat for what they believe in. the reason republicans can't get anything in the house, they can't raise the debt ceiling. >> what the republicans believe is no tax increases. they believe in cuts. that's a fair deal. >> pat, republicans should have raised the victory flag, taken the deal and said it was 3-1 spending cuts to revenue increases. 83-17%. most importantly, it's good for the country. >> ed, george h.w. bush took the deal. remember read my lips, no new taxes? i'll raise them, then take a deal. one term, he was gone. republicans sign on to tax increases now, after they have sworn to the people -- >> they are not tax increases. >> tell it to the americans. >> these are things the american people support. 38% of american corporations pay no taxes. close the loophole. >> they are standing up for their principles and it's what they were sent to washington to do. >> no, they were sent to washington to govern. you get elected to govern. >> that's what president obama was elected to do. they are going to lateral him the football. >> congress is elected to come in to be antagonistic and problematic? no, they were elected to govern. i respect your point, pat, the only point is republicans should not hide about when to balance and when to lower the debt. they stand for no new taxes on the wealthiest americans. >> why don't you -- why don't democrats agree to the balanced budget amendment, part of the republican package. >> it's bad policy. congress should do its job and pass budgets where the nation can live within its means. we are not out of the woods, yet. we are going to avoid default. we don't know that, yet. that is not guaranteed. we have a long way to go. we have two weeks before we hit the ceiling and the ratings agency are waiting to see, giving us until the 22nd to get our act together. mark arubio said something and got it wrong. if you do not raise the debt ceiling, it's as if you went out and got a car and decided not to make the payments. it's not giving the united states more blank checks. the united states must pay the bills. if the debt ceiling is not raised, a world of hurt is raised. >> we are not the only one with problems. larry somers is urging members of the g-20 to become more vocal to do what is best for their econo economy's as well. if europe does not get the crisis under control soon, the g-20 nations should become more aggressive. the comments come ahead of euro zone leaders in brussels later this week. the group is expected to discuss a financial rescue package. greece is seeking another bail out package to keep them financed through 2014 until they can return to financial markets and pay their own bills, fund themselves. hillary clinton made a stop in athens today voicing strong support for greece as the country struggles to overcome their own financial issues. clinton saying quote, americans know these are difficult days and we stand with you as friends and allies. the way europe relates to us is becoming all too familiar. how does it relate? >> you know, peter, i get the global implications of the worldwide economy. i think everyone does. we live in a worldwide economy. the competition is no longer down the block. it's china, india and places like that. just listening to the discussion this morning, listening to the different points of view, you expand the different points of view, put them in a polarized poisonous, toxic atmosphere, congress, and it's governing. we can't govern ourselves. is this country ungovernable? it's the question in our minds and the minds of a lot of young people. where are we going as a nation. they go to washington and behave like clowns. that's a huge, huge problem. >> mike's point is spot on. even pat is saying we have a different philosophy on governing. when obama was elected he made promises. after that, he said he would close guantanamo bay. then he saw the information. after the elections, democrats said we would not extend the bush tax cuts, we did it. with larger deal around don't ask don't tell. i think it's important for politicians and those elected to want to govern and be bigger than the moment. remember, peter asked the most important question at the beginning, the real issue for voters is not the debt ceiling, they are wondering when is congress going to create jobs. this should be an easy one around the debt ceiling. make the cuts. >> let's take the state of minnesota where you have to balance the budget. governor mark dayton shut down the government. it's not a taxing problem. mark dayton came back, he did not raise taxes, he took the republican deal. illinois, they went the other way. this battle is going on all across america. and in greece. greece is going to default. that country is insolvent. the banks are not going to be paid back. they are holding those poor people's head under water. >> mike. >> pat, what's interesting is if you walk around and go do your grocery shopping on the weekend and put gas in your car and listen to what is out there, listen to people, this is all pretty simple. they are making it more difficult in washington than it has to be. it comes down to this, people want to know about our elected officials in the house and senate, hey, why don't you do something for the country before your own political party? do something for your country. >> let me say this. they believe that if they don't hold the line and they don't stop the taxes from going up, their country is headed down the same road as all these countries in europe and they are determined to do it. they could be wrong and you would ask. >> pat, that's not the issue. the issue is you have a divided government. you have to make it work. when i was governor, a whole slew of programs i wanted to enact. i compromised every one of them to get them passed. every one of them. that's what we have to do now. >> we have time to talk about this, i'm guessing, two more weeks. up next, the politico top stories. mika and joe heading a round table discussion for 2012. what is behind michele bachmann's success and how much should it affect mitt romney. first, bill karins. >> this heat wave is going to be historic. not because of the record high but the duration of the heat wave. st. louis could be 100 degrees for seven days in a row with an impressive humidity. it's not a dry heat. look at washington, d.c. this could last into saturday and sunday. today, thunderstorms. still warm. the thunderstorms cool us off. we have 100 degrees in dallas for 17 straight days. today will be 18. we are 100 in dallas. look, we have 100 degree heat up into montana. as i said, all this and the humidity shift to the east coast in the days ahead. be prepared. this is going to be a long summer week. you are watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. this past year alone there was a 93% increase in cyber attacks. in financial transactions... on devices... in social interactions... and applications in the cloud. some companies are worried. some, not so much. thanks to a network that secures it all and knows what to keep in, and what to keep out. outsmart the threats. see how at cisco.com cisco. i think the house will cut cap and balance. it will take the government spending back to around 2008 spending levels. it will have a cap on spending over the next decade to wipe out the debts in a ten-year period and require the passage of the amendment and raise the debt limit. that will be the republican position in the house almost unanimously. as a nation we are becoming greece and borrowing 40 cents of every dollar. a child born today has $46,000 of debt. now is the time to do real things that matter. >> it doesn't sound so pleasant. let's look at the morning papers. new york times, president obama passing over elizabeth when he elected the former general of ohio to lead the protection bureau. it was warren's idea. the harvard professor became a target for republicans on capitol hill. only one in five elite gop fund-raisers donated to republicans vying for the white house. that's according to a new analysis of campaign reports. it offers one side of a republican field that is unsettled six months before the iowa caucuses. >> there was all this talk of carmageddon. the 405 freeway opened hours ahead of schedule on sunday. look at that. they made progress. a ten-mile stretch was closed due to construction. officials warned people to stay home worried it could cause epic traffic jams. everybody headed to the waters. it was a mess along the shores. get a boat. it's a mess in l.a. joining us now, the politico playbook chief white house correspondent, mike allen. nice to see you now. lance armstrong is under federal investigation for doping. now, he's turning the table on the feds. what's up with that? >> good morning, guys. you are doing a great job of house sitting. >> appreciate it. >> lance arm strong is the target of the grand jury in los angeles that's looking into doping that might have occurred during cycling races. there have been all kind of leaks about what's going on. an investigator going to france, who they are talking to. they haven't talked to lance arm strong. he's gone to court to say the feds should shut up. this is character assassination. if he were to be tried and cleared, there have been so many stories about what went on while he was on the tour de france team, he would be guilty in a lot of people's minds. >> what about roger clemmons, the federal government deficit. they spend $100,000 trying to get clemmons alone. let's get back to business here. come on. >> amen. this is per postrouse. it's cheating. let them take care of it. why do the feds have to get in on it. you are bringing u.s. attorneys in on this nonsense. >> the guy ride as bike for a living. >> he's done plenty for good. he's made millions for cancer research. also on this topic, california democrat, maxine waters was set to stand trial of abuse of power. now the charges may be dismissed. what's the latest there? >> a pile, a couple hundred documents from the ethics committee, which is rare to get your hands on. he found lawyers who worked for the committee shared information about the maxine waters investigation and our friend charlie rangel and his investigation outside the place she should have. the lawyers were suspended. now, congresswoman waters is saying the improper handling of material means she should get off. now there's pressure to drop the charges because of their staff's careless handling of that information. >> this is stunk from the very beginning. you can't link what happened to congresswoman waters with congressman rangel. i looked into the waters situation. it was a very -- the charges that she specifically went and got something done for a bank where her husband was on the board and could profit, it doesn't pan out. she's stuck to her guns, she is not guilty of anything, hasn't broken rules or broken the spirit of rules. i agree with her. she's pushing to get the charges dropped. at least, at a minimum, she can clear her name and get on doing the business of representing her constituents. >> mike, we appreciate it. >> have a great week. when we come back, michele bachmann's strong start in iowa and what it means to mitt romney. >> mika and joe are going to sit down with an all-star panel to talk about ending america's war. the women's u.s. soccer team reacting to their collapse in the world cup final. keep it here on "morning joe." ♪ [ p.a. announcer ] announcing america's favorite cereal is now honey nut cheerios! yup, america's favorite. so we're celebrating the honey sweetness, crunchy oats and... hey! don't forget me!! honey nut cheerios. make it your favorite too! a farewell long awaited. goodnight, stuffy. goodnight, outdated. goodnight old luxury and all of your wares. goodnight bygones everywhere. 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[ male announcer ] the audi a8, chosen by car & driver as the best luxury sedan in a recent comparison test. good monday morning to you. today republican presidential candidate michelle bachmann making campaign stops in iowa. she's gaining momentum in the hawk eye state. joe, mika and willie join us. >> here we are in new york with mike barnicle and alex wag near. in washington, pat buchanan. i still can't get over the poll that came out last week, everybody has been talking about it. michelle bachmann. >> this is nationwide, not just iowa. there was an iowa poll out last week that looked like this as well. michelle bachmann now almost doubling mitt romney's lead. i'm sorry. i'm skeptical that this is going to last. pat, what do you say? >> joe, take a look at that poll, again. add up the numbers of michele bachmann, rick perry, sarah palin, you get to 47, throw ron paul in there, it's over 50. there's a huge gap, wide open on the right socially conservative side of the republican party. mitt romney ought to watch himself, joe. i don't think he's going to get away with talking about just the economy, the economy, the economy. i have never seen an opening this wide with a front-runner that's a sen tryst. >> pat, i cannot believe michele bachmann came out of nowhere, a congresswoman out of nowhere and almost doubling mitt romney and everybody else in the field. what is going on? what do people see in michele bachmann? >> one thing is awe then sisty. the second thing is clear conviction. the third thing is she's a very attractive personal package. people are hungry for something new, i think, and different. she could have a howard dean prop or peeking too early. right now, romney better take a look at realize this kind of electricity and excitement, these are things that can, at times overcome a well managed, well structured attractive candidate. >> mike barnicle, mitt romney tried in 2008. it was disastrous. nobody believed him. he can't go there, again. >> there's one addition that i make about michele bachmann. she has discipline. >> discipline? >> how does that match with authentici authenticity. she seems like a different person. >> i don't know that she does. she sounds like a different person. >> this is someone that's questioned the minimum wage. she's questioned the e.p.a. she has ed rollins and is dialling back. if she's going to get out of iowa she has to change the radical right. >> that leads to pat's second point he raised. there's an opening unlike any he's seen before on the right in the republican primary. it's probably true given his knowledge of the base. i would also suggest the opening on the right means directly off a cliff in terms of being elected. >> mike, i don't say take it. i say cover your flank a bit. don't completely ignore the issues or voters or beliefs. joe is right, mitt romney running as a social conservative is not credible. taking a stance to defend is like leaving a secondary alignment on the field. >> we have seen this mika. donald trump comes in, shoots way up. bachmann shoots up. it shows what a hunger there is for somebody, anybody other than mitt romney. i like mitt romney. i like his people. i like his family but boy, the republicans -- it's almost like the republican party keeps pushing him away. >> there was a poll a couple weeks ago that showed 6-10 republicans would vote for someone other than all the candidates the