Governor of georgia, Chris Van Hollen, and governor bill haslam of tennessee, the head of the Republican Governors Association. And one last look at where the race stands. Will democrats win back the house . Will republicans actually make gains in the senate . And what message will voters be sending to President Trump . Well have the results of our final midterm nbc news wall street journal poll. Joining me for insight and analysis are savannah guthrie, hugh hewitt, nbc news capitol hill correspondent kasie hunt, democratic pollster Cornell Belcher and nbc news Senior Correspondent tom brokaw. Welcome to sunday and a special midterm edition of meet the press. Announcer from nbc news, the longest running show in television history, this is a special edition of meet the press with chuck todd. Good sunday morning from our election headquarters right here at Rockefeller Center in new york city where on tuesday night, well be reporting on the First National referendum on the trump presidency. At stake all 435 house seats, 35 senate seats this year, 36 governors races, and of course thousands of state legislative seats are on the ballot. For the democrats a great night for them would be winning back the house convincingly, somehow even gaining a senate seat even if they dont gain control, and winning nearly a dozen governors mansions. The republican dream, hanging on to the house, solidifying their hold in the senate gaining seats and holding their losses in governors races to fewer than five. We have two days to go and we have a brand new nbc news wall street journal poll completed early this morning. Among likely voters, democrats have a sevenpoint lead, 5043, in their pick for congress. Thats a slight improvement for the republicans compared to two weeks ago when the democrats led 5041 nationally. Like so much about this midterm election, how people vote reflects how they feel about President Trump. Among likely voters the president s job rating is basically unchanged. 46 approve, 56 disapprove. In previous terms a 46 Approval Rating for a sitting president would mean that his party was headed for a big defeat, they would be throttled. But is it possible that President Trump has changed the rules or that the geography of our political divide has changed the rules . Even though election day is tuesday, some 33 Million People have already voted. Its a record for the early vote for midterms. We could be on our way to our firstever midterm with 100 million voters, a mini president ial, if you will. We have correspondents across the country covering just a few of the races well be watching on tuesday night. These are the big four states that were focused on right now and well begin in arizona where democrats are hoping to pick up an open senate seat. Vaughn hillyard is there in tempe for us. Vaughn, this is very, very close and in many ways democrats think if they cant win an Arizona Senate seat this time, when can they. Reporter chuck, arizona is the place where Barry Goldwater gave birth to modern day conservatism. With the passing of john mccain and the retiring of jeff flake, its the democrat whos trying to take that mantle as the arizona maverick. Shes been on the air waves highlighting herself as a western independent. If you look at martha mcsally, the republican in this race, theres been a lack of images of arizonas past. Instead she stood solidly behind President Trump. Having conversations on the ground here, theres been many independents and republicans who have expressed frustration with mcsally standing by the president , namely on that Health Care Vote back in 2017 that would have weakened protections for those with preexisting conditions. So with the absence of mccain and flake, it will be quite telling on tuesday night what the future of arizona looks like here. Chuck. Vaughn, thanks very much. One guarantee, arizona will be sending a woman to the United States senate. That we do know and that we can call with confidence. Vaughn hillyard, thanks very much. Lets turn to st. Louis, missouri, where our own Morgan Radford is there. Democratic senator Claire Mccaskill is in danger of losing this senate seat. The attorney general, josh hawley had agreed to be our guest but cancelled late yesterday afternoon citing his campaign schedule. Morgan, dont think that it was lost on us that a couple of polls have suddenly shown a consistent hawley lead suddenly shrinking to a tie. Whats going on in this race . Reporter chuck, thats why hes doubling down. Hes decided to fire up his base and really focus on telling voters that control of the senate could come down to missouri, because every single poll shows him locked in a dead heat with Claire Mccaskill. Interestingly, mccaskill is in the fight of her political life because her team tells us that the vote here in missouri isnt actually as much about President Trump as people outside of the state are led to believe. She says her voters care about health care and they care about keeping local jobs. But if you cross the aisle, chuck, and you talk to hawleys voters, they say the number one issue is immigration. Whats interesting here, chuck, is that its going to come down to who can peel off those moderate voters and in which direction, because here in missouri, unlike a lot of those other states, there is no straight ticket voting. Theres also no early voting, so theyre going to keep us guessing until the very end, chuck. Missouri will tell us what the late voter decided because of that lack of early vote. Anyway, morgan, well done there. Thanks very much. And now to the swingiest of swing states, florida. It has everything. A tight governors race, a tight senate race. Ready for this, a half a dozen competitive house races. Catie beck is in South Daytona for us. We had the president there last night. I have to say, catie, is this something that both ron desantis and rick scott, the two republicans at the top of the ticket, did they need this last night . Did they need donald trump there in florida . Reporter well, donald trump certainly thinks so. He has been making florida a top priority on the campaign trail. Hes made multiple stops here in recent weeks, including one just last night in pensacola, florida, where he was doing tough talk on immigration saying that barbed wire at the u. S. Border can actually be a beautiful sight. Now, as you mentioned, chuck, this state is almost evenly divided when it comes to both the senate race and the gubernatorial race, so folks here are counting on those endorsements, counting on that support from the president. Well see more trump support headed this way today when Rudy Giuliani heads to campaign for governor scott. Thanks very much. In florida its going to be what is the composition of the electorate. How much of it is white and how much is nonwhite and thats something we wont know until election day. Finally, lets go to Garrett Haake in austin, texas. Is it a sideshow or is it a real thing . Democratic congressman beto orourke has been a national superstar among democrats and is hoping to pull the upset of the year against republican senator ted cruz. Garrett, in the last two weeks of this race, its actually looked like a race. Is it real or not . Reporter well, its real, chuck, but make no mistake here, the math still favors ted cruz. Hes led in every public poll of this state and texans havent elected a democrat to any statewide office since 1994. But there has been real momentum around the orourke campaign, especially over the last couple of weeks. Hes been drawing these big diverse crowds all over the state, places democrats dont normally go. Hes built the get out the Vote Campaign from scratch. Ive heard a lot of people compare this campaign to the obama cam pape in 2 campaign in 2008 but it reminds me more of Trump Campaign in 2016 in that his supporters of poll truthers. They say the numbers do not capture the enthusiasm here on the ground and his campaign is buoyed by these get out the vote numbers which have been extraordinary in texas. When a great comparison. All the national smarty pants people, we thought we knew what we were talking about in 2016 and we all think we know about texas, but guess what, lets wait for the vote. Thank you, garrett. And thanks to all of our correspondents on the ground. Joining me now is democrat Chris Van Hollen of maryland. Hes the man in charge of getting democrats elected to the senate. Senator van hollen, welcome back to meet the press. Chuck, its great to be with you. You were the dccc chair in the 2010 midterms when democrats lost more than 60 seats. It was the first midterm of president obama. You were the dsc chair here in the first term of President Trump. Compare the two atmosphere. I was also dccc chair in 2008, which was another very good year for democrats. But look, there are big differences between the house and senate seats in this cycle, chuck, because on the one hand, you have kind of a wave, a blue wave, although how big it will be we dont know. But then in the senate races, weve got a lot of senators who are running in states that donald trump won. For them, they have been very clear from the beginning that their number one job is to stand up for the people of their states. If that means working with donald trump on something that helps their states, they will. If it means opposing him and republicans, they will also do that. For example, on protecting people with preexisting health conditions. So its a very different sort of political battlefield in senate races than house races. So look, ill let you set the bell curve for yourself here. Define a good night. Is a good night losing just one senate seat . You know, i dont want to define a good night because what we see right now is a situation that is a whole lot better than anyone would have predicted 18 months ago when republicans were saying that they might win another eight seats and have a filibusterproof majority in the United States senate. No one is talking about that right now. We do have a narrow path to a Senate Democratic majority. Its a narrow path and it requires holding a lot of these very tough seats and then pickinne o five republican seats where were competing. So as you know, everything comes down to turnout. Margin of error, so its all about turnout. It strikes me, im going to pick out four senate seats, two democrats, two republicans, all in red territory. It strikes me youve got to have one to have a good night and two to talk about the majority. Its missouri, tennessee, texas and north dakota. So missouri and north dakota and then tennessee and texas where youre on offense, missouri and north dakota youre on defense. Is it fair to say you cant go 0 for 4 . Well, you cant go 0 for 4 in all those states, thats right. And thats not going to happen. Were not going 0 for 4. Let me just, first of all, say no one should ever count Heidi Heitkamp out. She was down more than ten points six years ago and came back to win. Claire mccaskill also is always sticking up for missouri and shes known as a fighter for her state. And then in those two pickup seats, we have incredibly strong candidates who have also said that their job, number one, is to stand up for their states working with donald trump if it helps, but fighting him if thats necessary to protect the people in their state. You know, tennessee and texas strike me as fascinating in this respect. Theyre both supposedly red states and yet you have one democratic nominee whos been comfortable using the i word, impeachment, beto orourke down in texas, and hes within striking distance. And you have one democrat in Phil Bredesen who say if you worry about party, im not going to win. If you vote the person hes almost running as a centrist republican in the state yet theyre both in the same position. What does that tell you about where the democratic messaging works best . Is it better to be a base progressive like beto or better to be a centrist like bredesen. Well, it tells you that the quality of the candidate is really important and their ability to communicate on issues that people in their states care about. And we have candidates in both texas and tennessee who are doing exactly that. As you say, different approaches. As you know, in texas, Hillary Clinton got 45 of the vote. In tennessee, she didnt get close to 45 of the vote. So, look, what you see in beto is somebody who is working to really expand an electorate which can be expanded in texas. In tennessee, the electorate cant be expanded that much, although you are seeing larger turnouts than typical midterm elections. And in Phil Bredesen, youve got a twoterm governor who really focused on the pragmatic art of governing and hes been very clear. As i was saying, his job is to stand up for the state of tennessee. Hes talked about areas where he can work with the president , but hes also talked about areas where hell fight the president , like the issue that is top of mind for most voters around the country, which is protecting people with preexisting health conditions. You know, Phil Bredesen and a few other democrats, Kyrsten Sinema has been trying to reject her party label a little bit saying shes not really a proud democrat. They have all made promises that they wont be just sort of blank checks for the democratic leadership. Phil bredesen said he wouldnt vote for the current leadership. If he wins, do you feel as if the Senate Democrats have to look for new leaders because thats a promise that was made in order to get the senate majority, for instance . Well, those members running im sure will fulfill their commitments, but that doesnt mean that we dont have a Strong Leadership Team in the United States senate. Look, this is an example of what i was talking about earlier, that what voters want are senators whose number one job is to stick up for their states. And sometimes that means working with their party leadership, sometimes that means working in the opposite direction. But thats very different than republican candidates who are simply rubber stamp trump supporters. What we see from voters, even republicans, is they want a senator whos going to hold the president accountable and also work with the president if its good for their state. If a blue wave comes ashore geographically starting on the atlantic, theres one place where there appears to be a riptide and that is the coast of the new jersey shore. Bob menendez, let me read what the newark star ledger said, the headline was choke it down and vote for menendez. This race is rated as a tossup in a year when a generic democrat could win in a walk. Our hope is that voters remember that trump is on the ballot and choke down their re luck dance and vote for menendez. Hes no gem, but hes better than hugin, the republican nominee there. Did the democrats make a mistake when they didnt encourage a challenger to bob menendez so at a minimum he could litigate this ethics problem that hes been dealing with . No. Bob menendez has been a fighter for the people of new jersey, and the people of new jersey definitely do not want a trump rubber stamp in the United States senate. Hugin would be a trump rubber stamp in the United States senate. The reason hugin is competitive is because he spent tons of his own money, money that he got its not because of menendez legal problems . Theres no doubt that bob menendez has had that issue and he has had to litigate that throughout the campaign, which he has. But it is also the fact that bob hugin has now spent 30 million of his own money, money that he gained as the ceo of a pharmaceutical company, that really overcharged people for cancer drugs. And i dont think the people of new jersey want somebody who made his way that way. And so im confident that bob menendez will win. Chris van hollen, ill leave it there. I believe theres nobody that has done what youve done. Dccc chair a decade ago, 08 and 10 and dsec chair now. Nobody knows this countrys election better than you other than my pals over at the cook report. Thanks, chuck. Thanks very much. And joining me now is republican governor bill haslam of tennessee. Hes the person in charge of getting republicans elected to state houses across the country. Governor haslam, welcome to meet the press. Good morning, thanks. Well, let me start with a similar question i started with senator van hollen. What would you consider a good night for republican governors . Is it limiting the number of losses . I mean i know youre defending a lot of seats, sort of like the Senate Democrats. How would you define a good night for the gop . On the governors map, it is the reverse of what it is in the senate. Theres currently 36 governors races, 26 of which republicans hold the seat. So its easy to say this is a little bit more of an uphill battle for us than it has been historically with that many seats. That being said, we feel good about the position were in, but were not blind to the fact this a president s first midterm when we have this many seats up, like i said 26 of the 36, we knew we had our work cut out for us. Thats why at rga weve worked hard, raised a record amount of money this cycle and making certain were putting that money to good use here in the last three weeks of the campaign. When you look at the Great Lakes Region in general, that part of the midwest, it seems to me that thats going to its possible youll have democratic